Monday, February 20, 2012

Let's Test Our Gag Reflex and Review the Pac-12

California (9 seed) – Currently leading the Pac12 with the auto-bid the Bears computer numbers aren’t too bad. An RPI of 29 and SOS of 84 looks solid coupled with a Non-Conference SOS of 55. What’s missing here (and will be a theme in this article) are any top 50 wins. 0-2 versus the top 25 and 0-1 against 26-50 leaves California without a marquee win. 3 games remain and as long as they don’t lose two and bow out early in the conference tournament I think this is an at-large team.

Washington (11 seed) – RPI of 54, SOS of 75. Continuing the theme above the Huskies lack any meat on their bones. 0-3 against the top 25, 0-1 against 26-50 leaves very little room for error. The last 3 games are all winnable but UCLA, USC, and Wazzou won’t bulk up their computer numbers. If…and it’s a big if, they win out and don’t lose their 1st game in the conference tournament I think this team goes dancing.

Arizona (12 seed) – RPI of 68 and a SOS of 97. We’re starting to stretch this bubble already and as of today this team is comfortably?!? in the bracket. The Wildcats are 0-2 against the top 25 however they do own a top 50 win (over California). Arizona, like Washington, has 3 games left against teams they should beat easily. If they win out I see a scenario where they meet Washington in the tournament as an elimination game.

Oregon (Next Four Out) – RPI of 57, SOS of 74. This team is barely hanging on but yet is one of the 8 teams just out of the bracket. 0-5 against the top 50 they face an elimination game against Colorado later this week. They need a lot of help and I doubt they’ll get it.

Colorado (Also Considered) – RPI of 74, SOS of 127. The only reason I am still watching Colorado is that they have games against Stanford, California, and Oregon. If they can beat all 3 teams they’ll be able to secure a top 50 win and boost up their computer numbers to something somewhat respectable. Chances of this happening? .2%

Ultimately the Pac 12 is going to get 2 bids and they should be happy with it because they probably only deserve 1.

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