South Florida

Huge..Huge win for South Florida tonight. They go from last 4 in (or just out in other people's bracket) to last 8 in. I'll do more analysis tomorrow but I'm thinking they leapfrog both Seton Hall and Connecticut. Cincinnati had a big win tonight as well. It does not bode well for the Huskies at this moment.

Conference Tounament 2-29 Edition Continued

Ohio Valley Conference:

The prohibitive favorite is Murray State who should make it regardless of what happens in the conference tournament. Brian has them on the 6 line as of Sunday.

Other(s): Tennessee State could steal a bid by winning this thing and they do have the only win over the Racers this year. Bubble teams should be pulling hard for Murray State or the OVC will snag two bids.

FACT: The OVC champ has upset higher seeds in the first round (non-play-in garbage division) in the last two years. Murray State beat Vandy in 2010 and Morehead State beat Louisville last year. Prior to that, no OVC had won a tournament game since 1989.

West Coast Conference:

This should be a wildly entertaining tournament. As of Sunday, the WCC should put 3 teams in the dance, easily besting the Pac-12. Gonzaga and St. Mary's appear to be locks. BYU is straddling the fence and probably would be wise to not lose to the winner of San Diego/Pepperdine.

Sleeper(s): Loyola Marymount winning would probably knock BYU out but would also make the bubble teams sweat a little more. The bubbles want one of the top 3 to win.

Tonight's Bubble Games

Teams that would be out with a loss:
South Florida at Louisville
Texas vs Oklahoma
Miami at North Carolina State

Teams that could potentially be out with a loss:
Northwestern vs Ohio State
Cincinnati vs Marquette

Teams that could jump in with a win:
Mississippi State at South Carolina
Colorado State vs UNLV

Teams that need to win to stay in the conversation:
St. Joseph’s at St. Bonaventure
Dayton at Richmond

Conference Tournament Previews - 2/29

There are 4 conference tournaments that kick off today. I’ll be breaking down two of them this morning.

Atlantic Sun:
Favorite – Belmont Bruins – RPI = 65. Belmont has been at the top of the Atlantic Sun food chain all year long. The season started with a 1 point loss to Duke and for the most part Belmont has been the prohibitive favorite to grab the auto-bid all year long. Their conference losses have been at USC Upstate and against Lipscomb. I don’t see how Belmont doesn’t win the auto-bid easily

Potential Upset – Mercer Bears. Their lone game against Belmont was a 1 point home loss. If things break right they will meet in the conference championship with a chance of revenge

Patriot:
Favorite – Bucknell Bison – RPI of 81. Bucknell, currently a 15 seed, has looked the part most of the season but lately things have been slipping. Only 2-2 in their last 4 they’ve opened up the door for another team to grab the Patriot auto-bid

Potential Upset - LeHigh Mountain Hawks. 11-3 in conference they split the season series with Bucknell. With only 1 loss in their last 10 they may be peaking at the right time. If they win they’d be looking at a 16 seed at best.

Daily Bubble Watch

Bubble Out:
Weber State - no longer the Big Sky leader after the loss last night
Xavier - a tough road game at St. Louis turned into a loss and the Musketeers are now on the outside looking in.

Bubble In:
Montana - beat Weber State to win the Big Sky and the auto-bid for now
South Florida - it came down to either Mississippi State or South Florida here. I have more faith that USF will right their ships so they get the nod.

Horizon Preview

At the beginning of the year the Horizon League was looked at as a three horse race. Prognosticators had pegged Butler, Cleveland State or Detroit to win the league but somewhere along the way good old Valparaiso got in the way. The 1 seed, and double bye, was gobbled up by the Bryce Drew led Crusaders by two games over the 2 seeded Snorks of Cleveland State. Even though Valpo got the 1 seed it would not surprise me if either Cleveland State or Detroit ended up with the auto-bid. Right now Valparaiso is a 15 seed in my bracket and none of the potential upset teams will be higher than that seeding. This is a 1 bid league no matter what happens and that can be had is at best is matchup against the likes of North Carolina.

Hello, Conference Tourney Time

Conference tournaments start this week with the Big South kicking off the action tonight. With the beginning of each tournament, we'll look at the expected winner and what upsets could mean to bubble teams.

BIG SOUTH:

The prohibitive favorite is UNC-Asheville who projects as a 16 seed play-in, in Brian's latest bracket. Even with another team emerging, it won't mean anything in the big picture as it's a one-bid league.

Coastal Carolina, school of Dustin Johnson, would be the likely team to upset Asheville. The Chanticleers have not been to the dance since 1993 when they got waxed by the Fab Five. FYI, they are coached by Cliff Ellis who had some success at Clemson & Auburn.

Not counting play-in victories and I don't because I'm a miserable SOB, the Big South only has one win in tournament history from 2007 when Winthrop beat Notre Dame.

Sunday Evening Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed
Kentucky (SEC) vs StonyBrook(Aeast)/MissValley(SWAC)
Syracuse (Beast) vs Savannah(MEAC)/UNC-Asheville(Bsouth)
Duke (ACC) vs Tex-Arlington(Sland)
Kansas (Big12) vs Long Island (NEC)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Michigan State (B1G) vs Valparasio (Horizon)
North Carolina vs Bucknell (Patriot)
Missouri vs Davidson (SoCon)
Marquette vs Weber St (BigSky)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Ohio State vs Nevada (WAC)
Baylor vs Akron (MAC)
Georgetown vs Belmont (Asun)
Wisconsin vs Drexel (CAA)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Wichita State (MVC) vs Oral Roberts (Summit)
Louisville vs MidTennState (Sbelt)
Indiana vs Iona (MAAC)
Michigan vs VCU/Xavier
5 seed vs 12 seed
UNLV vs Texas/Northwestern
Florida vs Seton Hall
Creighton vs Miami
Florida State vs Arizona
6 seed vs 11 seed
Murray State (OVC) vs BYU
Temple (A10) vs West Virginia
Gonzaga vs Cincinnati
Notre Dame vs Harvard (Ivy)
7 seed vs 10 seed
New Mexico (Mwest) vs Long Beach State (Bwest)
St. Mary's (WCC) vs Connecticut
Vanderbilt vs Washington
San Diego St vs Kansas State
8 seed vs 9 seed
Alabama vs Southern Miss
Memphis (Cusa) vs St. Louis
Iowa State vs Virginia
Purdue vs California (Pac12)

First Four Out
Mississippi State
South Florida
Dayton
Colorado State
Next Four Out
St. Joseph's
Oregon
New Mexico State
Colorado
Also Considered
Marshall
Arkansas
South Dakota State
LSU
Central Florida
Stanford
Wyoming
Ohio
North Carolina State
South Florida

Bubble Update

Lots of movement in the past 48 hours. Just trying to weed through some stats in lieu of catching too much on TV during the busy weekend. I'm putting together my Bracket for tomorrow and as of right now my last 4 in are VCU, Mississippi State, Texas, and Xavier. My last four out are South Florida, Seton Hall, Dayton, and Colorado State. It seems weird to have Connecticut, West Virginia, and Cincinnati in with Seton Hall and South Florida out. I think at some point one or both catch Cincinnati or West Virginia. I still need to decide this evening about Seton Hall or Mississippi State (6-8 in the weaker SEC and losers of their last 5).

Saturday Afternoon Musings

- The National POY argument had a great debate today. Anthony Davis carried Kentucky to a win over Vandy at Rupp scoring 28 points, adding 11 boards and 6 blocks. Not to be outdone, Thomas Robinson added a double-double and a block to send the game to OT and erase a 19 point deficit to win in overtime against Missouri. They now have the inside track for another Big 12 title. If there's any justice, KU-Mizzou meet again in the Big 12 tournament.

- UNC survived at Virginia in one of those "character" games. Helps Virginia missed its last 11 shots. I think it was 11, might have been more.

- Florida got smoked by Georgia. Yikes. And Temple win the A-10 because St. Louis lost to a horrible Rhode Island.

http://m.deadspin.com/5888238/marquette-coach-buzz-williams-flirted-with-death-by-dancing-in-front-of-wvu-students-after-last-nights-win

Take Me Home, Country Road

Despite suspending DJO, Junior Cadougan and Vander Blue the rebounding fool for a half, Marquette stomps on Huggy Bear's face in what could be his last game against the Golden Eagles. Sweet.

And if any of you find the video of Buzz dancing in front of the WVU student section to "Country Road", post it ASAP. Sit down, hillbillies and get back in your coal mines you life expectancy outliers.

Friday Morning Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed
Kentucky (SEC) vs StonyBrook(Aeast)/MissValley(SWAC)
Syracuse (Beast) vs Savannah(MEAC)/UNC-Asheville(Bsouth)
Duke (ACC) vs Tex-Arlington(Sland)
Kansas (Big12) vs Long Island (NEC)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Michigan State (B1G) vs Valparasio (Horizon)
Missouri vs Bucknell (Patriot)
North Carolina vs Davidson (SoCon)
Ohio State vs Weber St (BigSky)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Marquette vs Nevada (WAC)
Michigan vs Akron (MAC)
Baylor vs Belmont (Asun)
Georgetown vs Drexel (CAA)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Florida vs Iona (MAAC)
Wichita State (MVC) vs Oral Roberts (Summit)
UNLV vs VCU/Miami
Louisville vs MidTennState (Sbelt)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Temple (A10) vs Long Beach State (Bwest)
Indiana vs Arizona/Northwestern
Creighton vs Colorado State
Wisconsin vs BYU
6 seed vs 11 seed
Florida State vs Seton Hall
Notre Dame vs Washington
Murray State (OVC) vs West Virginia
New Mexico (Mwest) vs Cincinnati
7 seed vs 10 seed
Vanderbilt vs Mississippi State
Gonzaga vs Southern Miss
St. Mary's (WCC) vs Connecticut
Kansas State vs Harvard (Ivy)
8 seed vs 9 seed
San Diego St vs Purdue
Virginia vs Alabama
St. Louis vs Memphis (Cusa)
California (Pac12) vs Iowa State

First Four Out
Texas
Xavier
North Carolina State
South Florida
Next Four Out
Oregon
LSU
Dayton
St. Joseph's
Also Considered
Iowa
Massachussets
Marshall
Arkansas
South Dakota State
Minnesota
Wagner
New Mexico State
Central Florida
George Mason
Stanford

Florida State

It's a mid-game post here but I have to say I'm very impressed with Florida State. Awesome on defense...relentless. I don't recall seeing a team work that hard defensively. However, they play dumb at times. If they would reduce the stupid mistakes (3 fouls on 3 pointers) this is a top 10-15 team. If they can hold it together mentally and not go cold on offense for 7-8 minutes in a row this is an Elite Eight team.

Revisiting Louisville

After their loss to Kentucky, I said I thought Louisvill would surprise some people this year. They proceeded to play like garbage for a couple of weeks reinforcing the Kurly curse, bottoming out with a 31 point loss at Providence. They've recovered nicely and depending how they finish the year, in position for a decent seeding for the tournament.

Their overall RPI is 21, with 5 wins against the top 50. KenPom has them 26th overall. This Louisville team wins with its defense. Their AdjD is 11th while the offense is 91st. They hold teams to an effective fg% of 42.8, which is 6th best in the nation. Their FG% defense is 37.6, which is 6th best in the nation and get 9.2 steals per game, 7th best. They force turnovers at a decent clip with a turnover % of 23, about 2.5 more per game than national average. They're awful on the glass on the defensive side, as opposing teams have a 33.4% rebounding % against them, 226th in the land. They also put teams on the line, averaging 18.5 fouls per game. It's not terrible, as their FTA/FGA% is 35.6, 164th in the nation.

Offensively, they have issues. Their effective FG% is 49.1, about average. Their turnover % is 21.5, 235th in the nation. Their overall turnovers per game is 14.9, 256th in the nation. The good news? They shoot 32.8% from beyond the arc, 231st in the nation. Okay, now the good news. They shoot 68.1% from the line which is 210th in the nation. They DO get to the line a decent amount. Their FTA/FGA % is 38.2, above the national average. While they board poorly on the defensive end, they do better on the offensive side. They have an offensive rebounding % of 36.7, 29th in the land.

G Peyton Siva runs the show but is strictly a pass first/only PG. Swingman Kyle Kuric is the leading scorer. Guards Russ Smith and Chris Smith flank Siva. Russ is a terrible shooter, shooting 37.9%. Chris isn't much better, shooting 42.1% overall but 41.5% from behind the arc.

While Louisville has played better in the last month, they'll need some favorable matchups to make a run in March and if they come out cold, they'll have aa tough time advancing beyond the first weekend.

Tonight's Bubble Games

Stanford – Colorado
An elimination game for both…and I’m barely watching Stanford to begin with. Colorado needs this bad

Louisville – Cincinnati
The Bearcats won’t fall out with a loss but it’s best to protect one’s home court. A top 25 RPI win can go a long way to securing a bid

USC – Arizona
As one of the last 4 in Arizona cannot afford to get sloppy against the bottom of the Pac 12.

March Madness Memories - Tyus Edney

Daily Bubble Watch

Bubble Out:
South Florida – the chance for a marquee win slips through their fingers as a 20-7 start to the game doesn’t hold. There are plenty of chances left for South Florida though

Bubble In:
Miami – One Florida team replaces another. Miami does nothing and is now a 13 seed. How about that?

Teams no longer considered:
Mississippi – a 4 game losing streak at the end of February will do that to a team.

March Madness Memories - Korie Lucious

Tonight's Bubble Games

VCU – UNC-Wilmington
VCU just entered the bracket last night and need to stay perfect to remain an at-large candidate

South Florida – Syracuse
USF needs this to validate its current 10-4 Big East record. As a side bar every win USF gets also helps VCU as it gives them a top 50 win and will slowly pull up their RPI as well

East Carolina – Memphis
The Tigers slipped up over the weekend and although they are still comfortably in the bracket a losing streak is ill-advised at this time

West Virginia – Notre Dame
The Mountaineers need a road victory bad. They aren’t a bubble team now but it’s best to win tonight and slide into the top half of the bracket

Nebraska – Purdue
Purdue’s goal? Beat the teams they should and they are in

As an added bonus here are a couple team currently out who need to win to stay in the conversation:
St. Joseph’s hosting Richmond – currently one of my first four out
Dayton at Duquesne – if Dayton losses they drop out of the conversation
George Mason at Northeastern – barely in the conversation with an RPI of 83
Minnesota hosting Michigan State – A big opportunity for the Gophers

Daily Bubble Watch

Bubble Out:
Xavier - The latest loss to UMass is costly. The Musketeers are now on the outside looking in and will need a conference tourney run to get back in.

Miami - road wins are like gold and the Hurricanes let an opportunity slip through their fingers last night against Maryland.

Bubble In:
Colorado State - The Rams finally got a top 50 win to go with their gaudy Computer numbers. That win was HUGE for their profile.

VCU - speaking of top 50 win, that's been the biggest knock against the Colonial all year. Well, with South Florida now an RPI top 50 team VCU has a top 50 win. I said it before and I'll say it all the way until Selection Sunday. The Colonial is a two bid league

Temple Owls

Did you know Temple has won 10 in a row? You do, now. At 22-5 (10-2), Temple currently holds a 1/2 game lead over St. Louis and have the tie-breaker haven beat them earlier in their only scheduled matchup. Temple holds a RPI of 16 and falls in at 31 with KenPom (ADjO 16, Adj D 93). They have neutral court wins over Wichita State & Duke. Early season losses were against weaker opponents such as Bowling Green & Richmond. The other three losses were against bubble teams.

Surprisingly, Temple's team revolves around its offense. They're 20th in the nation in effective FG% and do a good job not turning it over, 36th in turnover %. They make about 7.5 3's per game and shoot at 40%, 9th best in the land. They're not overly reliant on the three and score enough inside to be balanced. They average 75.5 ppg, good for 32nd. They are slightly below average on the offensive boards and get to the line less than the national average. Temple's FTA/FGA % is 33.2%, the national average is 36.4%.

Defensively, they're not the Temple team you're accustommed to. They're 217th in scoring defense but their effective defensive fg% is 47.8%, slightly better than the national average. They're neutral on defensive rebounding % and force less turnovers than the national average. They foul less than most teams, though. Defensive FTA/FGA % is 33.8, bettering the national average of 36.4%. Symmetry!

The team is led by a three-headed back court of upperclassmen. SR, G Ramone Moore is the most prolific scorer, averaging 18 per game and shoots 40% from beyond the arc. The other SR. Juan Fernandez, averages11.5 pg while shooting 43% from deep. JR. G Khalif Wyatt score 17 pg on 48% shooting. All three of them average anywhere between 3-4 assists per game, so each is capable of setting up others. If you like guard play and believe in guard play dictating success in March, this might be a team to look at.

Xavier was the runaway choice to win the A-10 in the pre-season and a chic pick to be a Final Four type team. Since the fiasco against Cincinnati, St. Louis and Temple have risen to the top. All three of those teams will be interesting to watch come A-10 tourney time.

Tonight's Bubble Games

Xavier – Massachusetts
Xavier needs this road win to stay in the bracket. A loss here is very damaging to their overall profile

Kansas State – Missouri
The Wildcats are coming off a big win over Baylor so a letdown is probably going to happen. A win though pushes them into the top half of the bracket.

Georgetown – Seton Hall
The Pirates just re-entered the bracket this morning. They’ll need this win to stay there.

Michigan – Northwestern
Speaking of a letdown opportunity, Michigan may be due after the big Ohio State win. Couple that with the fact they aren’t that good on the road and I see a big win for N’western at home.

Miami – Maryland
Not much of a game but every road game is important at this point of the season. Miami needs it or they might be out tomorrow morning

New Mexico – Colorado State
The Rams are currently out of the bracket and a win here doesn’t necessarily put them in. However, a loss will probably doom them to winning the auto-bid for any chance.

Daily Bubble Watch

Bubble Out:
Texas - a chance at a signiture win at home falls by the wayside as they can't keep Baylor down. Now on a two game losing streak the Longhorns are on the outside looking in.

Bubble In:
Seton Hall - as last one out the Texas drop brings the Pirates in as a 12 seed

Let's Test Our Gag Reflex and Review the Pac-12

California (9 seed) – Currently leading the Pac12 with the auto-bid the Bears computer numbers aren’t too bad. An RPI of 29 and SOS of 84 looks solid coupled with a Non-Conference SOS of 55. What’s missing here (and will be a theme in this article) are any top 50 wins. 0-2 versus the top 25 and 0-1 against 26-50 leaves California without a marquee win. 3 games remain and as long as they don’t lose two and bow out early in the conference tournament I think this is an at-large team.

Washington (11 seed) – RPI of 54, SOS of 75. Continuing the theme above the Huskies lack any meat on their bones. 0-3 against the top 25, 0-1 against 26-50 leaves very little room for error. The last 3 games are all winnable but UCLA, USC, and Wazzou won’t bulk up their computer numbers. If…and it’s a big if, they win out and don’t lose their 1st game in the conference tournament I think this team goes dancing.

Arizona (12 seed) – RPI of 68 and a SOS of 97. We’re starting to stretch this bubble already and as of today this team is comfortably?!? in the bracket. The Wildcats are 0-2 against the top 25 however they do own a top 50 win (over California). Arizona, like Washington, has 3 games left against teams they should beat easily. If they win out I see a scenario where they meet Washington in the tournament as an elimination game.

Oregon (Next Four Out) – RPI of 57, SOS of 74. This team is barely hanging on but yet is one of the 8 teams just out of the bracket. 0-5 against the top 50 they face an elimination game against Colorado later this week. They need a lot of help and I doubt they’ll get it.

Colorado (Also Considered) – RPI of 74, SOS of 127. The only reason I am still watching Colorado is that they have games against Stanford, California, and Oregon. If they can beat all 3 teams they’ll be able to secure a top 50 win and boost up their computer numbers to something somewhat respectable. Chances of this happening? .2%

Ultimately the Pac 12 is going to get 2 bids and they should be happy with it because they probably only deserve 1.

March Madness Memories - Stick It Billy Packer

Monday Morning Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed
Kentucky (SEC) vs Vermont(Aeast)/MissValley(SWAC)
Syracuse (Beast) vs Savannah(MEAC)/UNC-Asheville(Bsouth)
Missouri (Big12) vs Tex-Arlington(Sland)
Kansas vs Long Island (NEC)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Duke vs Valparasio (Horizon)
Michigan State (B1G) vs Bucknell (Patriot)
North Carolina vs Davidson (SoCon)
Ohio State vs Weber St (BigSky)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Marquette vs Nevada (WAC)
Georgetown vs Akron (MAC)
Michigan vs Belmont (Asun)
Baylor vs Drexel (CAA)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Louisville vs Iona (MAAC)
Florida vs Oral Roberts (Summit)
Wisconsin vs Long Beach State (Bwest)
Wichita State (MVC) vs MidTennState (Sbelt)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Florida State (ACC) vs Arizona/South Florida
UNLV vs Texas/Northwestern
Indiana vs Xavier
Temple (A10) vs Miami
6 seed vs 11 seed
Creighton vs Washington
New Mexico (Mwest) vs Cincinnati
Notre Dame vs Purdue
Murray State (OVC) vs BYU
7 seed vs 10 seed
Vanderbilt vs Connecticut
Gonzaga vs Mississippi State
St. Mary's (WCC) vs Memphis
San Diego St vs Kansas State
8 seed vs 9 seed
Virginia vs Harvard (Ivy)
St. Louis vs Alabama
California (Pac12) vs Southern Miss (Cusa)
Iowa State vs West Virginia

First Four Out
Seton Hall
Central Florida
VCU
St. Joseph's
Next Four Out
North Carolina State
George Mason
Colorado State
Oregon
Also Considered
Colorado
Mississippi
LSU
Marshall
Arkansas
Illinois
South Dakota State
Dayton
Massachussets
Minnesota
Wagner
New Mexico State

Preliminary Bubble Status

The St. Joseph's selection yesterday did not still right with me but none of the other teams really stuck out either. I was going to put Seton Hall back in when suddenly a dark horse came to mind from the Also Considered. South Florida has 9 Big East wins and an RPI now in the top 50. That's screaming "look at me". As of 8am I have them as our last team in. Further analysis and a bracket later today.

Final Four Brain Teaser

This year's Final Four will be played for the fifth time at the Superdome. The previous years were 1982, 1987, 1993 & 2003. All four championship games had iconic endings. Can you name the participants of these four Final Fours?

MEEECHIGAN

With their win over Ohio last night, Michigan put itself in a position to challenge for its first Big Ten plus two title since 1986. That doesn't seem possible. 1986? Brian's liked them for awhile. KenPom has them 23rd overall and their RPI is 14. They've been unbeatable at home while they have looked lost on the road a few times, losing at Virginia and by double digits at Iowa.

They're 23rd in AdjO and 35th in AdjD. On the offensive side, they're 22nd in effective FG% and don't turn the ball over. 22nd in turnover % and 14th overall in turnovers - not bad with a Frosh PG. Overall, they're 192nd in scoring. They shoot a lot of 3 pointers, making 8.2 per game. They don't rebound misses, only 28 on offensive rebound %, 290th in the nation and they do not get to the line, shooting 15.5 pg, 340th in the nation. Their FTA/FGA % is 27.6, 337rd in the nation and about 9% lower than the national average, so when they don't hit a good amount of 3's, the offense will struggle to put the ball in the bucket.

Defensively, they rebound a little better. Their defensive rebound % is 29.7%, 69th overall. They do have a negative rebound margin. But they still are 30th in overall scoring defense. As they don't get to the line, their opponents don't either. Their 14th in fouls per game and 41st in FTA/FGA %.

The team is run by Frosh PG, Trey Burke. Tim Hardaway, Jr. has become the go-to-guy and SR. Zack Novak is the blood and guts guy. Last night, Jordan Morgan managed a double-double in the post and was beating Sullinger up and down the court. They have zero depth, going 7 deep for the most part.

I have no feel for this team whatsoever. I think they're depth is an issue and their rebounding deficiencies are a concern. Certainly capable of making the second weekend and beating just about anyone. They're well-coached and disciplined and are a program on the rise.

Daily Bubble Watch

Bubble Out:
Illinois - Awful, awful performance yesterday. Put a fork in them, they're done

North Carolina State - The stay was short lived. They needed either Duke or Florida State and got neither

Seton Hall - dropping out due to numbers they'll have plenty of opportunities to play back into the bracket. Can't afford too many more losses though.

Bubble In:
Miami - replaces NC State..they've been tournament worthy since Reggie Johnson came back from injury

Northwestern - big bubble win yesterday over Minnnesota gives them what they need as of today to jump into the bracket

St. Joseph's - I could have gone many different ways with the last one in but ultimately gave St. Joe's the nod over VCU, Central Florida, and Seton Hall.

Biggest Winners Today (so far)

Murray State - I'm putting them in as a lock with the convincing win over St. Mary's today

Wichita State - looked great today...they are creeping up on a top 4 seed at this point.

Colonial Athletic Association - Drexel, VCU, and George Mason all win today. It doesn't do much for their computer numbers but it does prevent them from dropping out of the conversation. I still believe this is a two bid league even if Lunardi shoots me down in the latest chat on ESPN

Kansas State - Seems like a marquee win and will probably play as one but Baylor is only 5-5 in their last 10. A road win is a road win though and a 12 seeded K-State is probably going up to a 10 seed.

Cincinnati - in a bubble matchup with Seton Hall the Bearcats prevail. As of tonight they are both sill in but this is a nice chip to have at this point in the season.

Team's That Lost the Most Today (so far)

There's been a 5 or 6 in the bottom of the bracket that lost already today but two hurt more than the others.

Illinois - as predicted this team has been falling like a lead balloon. However, there is a difference between losing and getting crushed....to Nebraska. After going up 24-16 Illinois was outscored 64-33 the rest of the way. There's no way they are in the bracket come Monday morning and it would not surprise me if they fell all the way into the Also Considered list

North Carolina State - up 20 with 11 minutes to go against Duke on Thursday they end up losing that one and today against Florida State. No signature wins this year is going to leave them on the outside looking in. On top of it Tom Gugliotta and Chris Corchiani were ejected from the stands during the FSU game. No word on whether Rodney Monroe was allowed to stay.

Marquette CAN make the Final Four

I'm not saying they will. But they can.

Milwaukee Magazine has a great profile on Buzz Williams in this months issue. Milwaukee and Marquette are pretty lucky to have him. A must read for Marquette fans.

Friday Morning Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed
Kentucky (SEC) vs Vermont(Aeast)/MissValley(SWAC)
Syracuse (Beast) vs Savannah(MEAC)/Tex-Arlington(Sland)
Missouri (Big12) vs UNC-Ashville (Bsouth)
Kansas vs Long Island (NEC)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Ohio State vs Weber St (BigSky)
Duke vs Valparasio (Horizon)
Michigan State (B1G) vs Bucknell (Patriot)
North Carolina vs Davidson (SoCon)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Baylor vs Drexel (CAA)
Marquette vs Nevada (WAC)
Georgetown vs Belmont (Asun)
Indiana vs Akron (MAC)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Michigan vs Iona (MAAC)
UNLV vs Oral Roberts (Summit)
Louisville vs Xavier/Illinois
Florida vs MidTennState (Sbelt)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Florida State (ACC) vs Washington/NC State
Gonzaga vs Cincinnati
Wisconsin vs Kansas State
Wichita State (MVC) vs Long Beach State (Bwest)
6 seed vs 11 seed
St. Mary's (WCC) vs Arizona
Vanderbilt vs BYU
Temple (A10) vs Texas
San Diego St vs Alabama
7 seed vs 10 seed
Creighton vs Seton Hall
Notre Dame vs Iowa State
Murray State (OVC) vs Purdue
Memphis vs California (Pac12)
8 seed vs 9 seed
Southern Miss (Cusa) vs Harvard (Ivy)
Connecticut vs Mississippi State
New Mexico (Mwest) vs West Virginia
Virginia vs St. Louis

First Four Out
Miami
St. Joseph's
VCU
Minnesota
Next Four Out
Northwestern
Central Florida
LSU
George Mason
Also Considered
Mississippi
Northern Iowa
Oregon
South Florida
Marshall
Arkansas
Wyoming
South Dakota State
Dayton
Massachussets
Colorado
Pittsburgh
Wagner
New Mexico State
Missouri State
Colorado State

Daily Bubble Watch

No movement in or out of the bracket today. I struggled with North Carolina State vs Miami but ultimately decided to leave the Wolfpack in. Their computer numbers are just slightly better and Miami's loss at home is slightly worse than NC State's road loss (regardless of it being a 20 point turnaround in the last 11 minutes).

A new bracket will be up by noon.

Lobos

This weekend, UNLV travels to the leaders of the Mountain West, the New Mexico Lobos. The Lobos are 11 through today in KenPom and have a solid RPI of 29. They've split with San Diego State, both winning on the road and lost at UNLV. Their best non-con win is a home win over St. Louis. They have on bad loss on a neutral court to a dreadful Santa Clara team.

New Mexico is solid on both ends. They're 11th in AdjD and 36th in AdjO. They're 9th in the nation in scoring defense and 9th in effective d fg%. They have a defensive turnover % of 22.5, above the national average of 20.5. They also do a good job keeping the other team off the line. Their defesive FTA/FGA% is 30.2%, bettering the national average of 36.4. They do a good job keeping the opposition off the offensive glass and are 12th in the nation in rebound margin.

On the offensive end, they have one bugaboo and that's turnovers. They average 14.5 per game, 215th in the nation. They're 211th in the nation in turnover % as well. But they make up for it by having a healthy offensive rebound % of 36.2%. They also get open looks. 64.6 of made shots have an assist (A/FGM). That's 6th best in the land. Overall, they average 16.8 assists per game. They have an effective fg% of 53.5, 33rd in the nation. They're a litte sketchy on the line, 69.7%. That's hardly terrible but average at best.

The players to know include SOPH. G Kendall Williams who runs the show and leads the team in scoring. He was electric in their win over SDSU on Saturday, going 5-6 from beyond the arc. Sr. F, Drew Gordon is averaging a double-double. The otehr guy to know is SOPH G, Tony Snell who scores 12 a game. His shooting has improved dramatically since last year.

Say this about the Mountain West, it's been another fun year in hoops. With UNLV, SDSU & New Mexico all tourney bound and Colorado State making a case, it's showing the Pac-12 how it's done.

March Madness Memories - UConn Goes Down

2 Seeds That Lost

Iowa State lost to Hampton in I think 2001

Syracuse lost to Richmond I believe as well

The last two I don't know off the top of my head but for some reason I think Richmond might have done it twice and Cleveland State perhaps?

Tourney Brain Teaser

Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, 15 & 16 seeds are a combined 4-224. No 15 seed has ever won a 2nd round game. Can you name the four 2 seeds who have lost and who they lost to?

Final Four - Mid-February Edition

Here are my updated Final Four picks as of 2/15.

Final Four
Kentucky – Head and shoulders above the rest.
Syracuse – Second to Kentucky and it’s not that close
Duke – Built momentum off the UNC win. Peaking at the right time?
Michigan State – Winning ugly is still winning. It’s not Linning though.

Sleepers that just missed the cut:
Marquette – surprisingly efficient on both ends of the court
Michigan – I have some sort of love affair with them this year
Gonzaga – starting to hit their stride; all 4 loses are against tourney teams

Deep Sleepers (my personal guarantee 1 of these makes the Elite Eight)
Wichita State – Kurlinski’s article says it all
St. Louis – like Marquette surprisingly efficient on offense and defense

Daily Bubble Watch

Bubble Out
Miami - a brief stay ends with a home loss to UNC. RPI is still solid at 43 so this won't be the last you hear from the Hurricanes

Bubble In
Xavier - Didn't play, but didn't lose. Reaping the benefit of being the 1st one out yesterday

Side Note:
I really thought Illinois would be on the outside looking in after losing to Purdue but it turns out they hang on to the last spot in the bracket instead. It's getting iffy at best for Bruce Weber and crew.

Tonight's Games to Watch

Northwestern at Indiana
The Wildcats need this bad. Currently one of the first four out a road victory of this magnitude could give them a lift into the bracket as early as tomorrow

North Carolina at Miami
Miami just re-entered the bracket last night with VCU’s loss. Is this stay just as short as the last one?

Purdue at Illinois
Kurly’s prophecy 2 months ago when the Illini were 11-1 was that they weren’t going to make the tournament. Does a loss tonight drop them out?

New Mexico at San Diego State
Both teams are in but New Mexico needs this game more. Game of the evening for me.

Brent Blizzard

That is all. Carry on with your day.

Daily Bubble Watch

Bubble out
Mercer – Atlantic Sun auto bid moves out after Belmont wins
VCU – A George Mason three at the buzzer removes VCU from the bracket and quite possibly from at-large contention. Must be perfect until the CAA tournament championship for any at-large chance

Bubble In
Belmont – the win last night gives them a tie for the conference lead and a better RPI gives them the auto bid
Miami – does nothing but replaces VCU as a last 4 in

Wichita State, Flavor of the Week

Fresh off a thrashing of Creighton, Seth Davis in his 20Q segment on twitter today called the Shockers one of his Sweet 16 sleepers. At 22-4, with a RPI of 17 and ranked 9th in KenPom, it seems hardly far-fetched. The best win is at home by 19 over another Sweet 16 Seth Sleeper, UNLV. Of their 4 losses, 3 of them are against top 40 RPI teams having lost at home to Creighton and winning there. Don't be surprised to see them meet each other again in the Arch Madness title game.

Wichita State is very much liked by KenPom, ranked 9th in AdjO and 24th in AdjD. Effective FG% on o is 53.8 (25th) and on d is 45.2% (40th). Overall, they're 20th in scoring and a respectable 76th in scoring d, a healthy 15 point scoring margin. They have a solid turnover % on offense but don't force too many turnovers on d. They make up for that deficiency on defense by only allowing a 26.5% offense rebound %, 11th best in the nation. They are also above average on the offensive boards.

They protect the ball and share the ball pretty well. They're 32 in assist/TO ratio and 49th overall in turnovers per game. They also shoot 75% from the charity stripe, 29th in the land. They get there at a national average, so they don't necessarily draw a lot of fouls per game and actually committ more per game, though it's neglible. They're not prolific from behind the arc, getting slightly less from beyond the arc than most teams but shoot it well enough they have to be respected.

The players to know are three Seniors. Center Garrett Stultz is the leading scorer and rebounder with 14 & 8. Stultz also shoots 82% from the line. Guard Joe Ragland scores 13 pg on a nifty 55.2% shooting and a solid 47% from beyond the arc. G Toure' Murry is another contributor who can get to the line. He played better as a junior but he's still on the floor more than any other player.

Wichita State is coached by Gregg Marshall who took Winthrop to 7 NCAA's out of the Big South in his 9 years there. We know them as the team whose heart was broken by Tennessee in 2006 but upset Notre Dame in 2007. Funny thing about 2006, it was the Shockers who ended up beating Tennessee in the next round to get them their first Sweet 16 since 1981. The Shockers did win the NIT last year, fwiw.

Unlike Creighton, Wichita State isn't one dimensional and probably is the Missouri Valley's best shot at a Sweet 16 run. With a solid coach and seniors in the middle and backcourt, there is no reason why they shouldn't be a trendy pick in a few weeks.

Again, kiss of death. Sorry fan o shocker.

Here's your dunk of the year/week

Courtesy of DII

Tonight's Games to Watch

Florida @ Alabama
Florida has lost two in a row while Alabama is reeling. Bama needs this to stay off the bubble

Creighton @ Southern Illinois
The Blue Jays have lost 3 in a row. Although still a 6 or 7 seed another loss drops them down to a 9 or 10

Texas @ Oklahoma
It’s been a long road back into the bracket for Texas, a win here is needed to stay on the right side of the bubble.

Ohio State @ Minnesota
Currently out of the bracket Minnesota can jump back in with a home win over Ohio State. How will OSU respond after the weekend loss to Michigan State?

We'll See Lunardi...We'll see.

Brian (Oak Creek)

If GM, VCU, and/or Drexel tie for the conf title and meet in the tourney championship is the CAA a two bid league?

Joe Lunardi (4:18 PM)

Doubtful. Who did anyone beat outside of the CAA??


I seem to remember multiple years where the conference champion got a at-large after they lost in the tournament. 2011 -VCU, 2007 - George Mason, etc...

March Madness Memories - Yoda Wins a Game

It'a a bit long and very grainy but worth it.

Monday Morning Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed
Kentucky (SEC) vs Stony Brook(Aeast)/MissValley(SWAC)
Syracuse (Beast) vs NorfolkSt(MEAC)/Tex-Arlington(Sland)
Missouri (Big12) vs UNC-Ashville (Bsouth)
Kansas vs Long Island (NEC)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Ohio State (B1G) vs Weber St (BigSky)
Duke vs Mercer (Asun)
Michigan State vs Bucknell (Patriot)
North Carolina vs Valparsio (Horizon)
3 seed vs 14 seed
UNLV (Mwest) vs Drexel (CAA)
Marquette vs Davidson (SoCon)
Baylor vs Nevada (WAC)
Georgetown vs Akron (MAC)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Wisconsin vs Iona (MAAC)
Indiana vs MidTennState (Sbelt)
Michigan vs Oral Roberts (Summit)
St. Mary's (WCC) vs Long Beach State (Bwest)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Louisville vs Texas/VCU
Florida State (ACC) vs Illinois/Cincinnati
Florida vs North Carolina State
Gonzaga vs Washington
6 seed vs 11 seed
San Diego St vs BYU
Wichita State (MVC) vs Kansas State
Vanderbilt vs Arizona
Temple (A10) vs Seton Hall
7 seed vs 10 seed
Creighton vs Purdue
Mississippi State vs California (Pac12)
Murray State (OVC) vs Alabama
Notre Dame vs St. Louis
8 seed vs 9 seed
Memphis vs Harvard (Ivy)
Virginia vs West Virginia
Southern Miss (Cusa) vs Iowa State
Connecticut vs New Mexico

First Four Out
Xavier
Miami
Northwestern
Minnesota
Next Four Out
Belmont
Oregon
St. Joseph's
Colorado State
Also Considered
Mississippi
Northern Iowa
Central Florida
South Florida
Marshall
Arkansas
Wyoming
South Dakota State
Dayton
Massachussets
Colorado
LSU
Pittsburgh
Wagner
New Mexico State
Cleveland State
Missouri State
Loyola-MD
LaSalle
Maryland
George Mason
Oklahoma
Stanford

Saturday afternoon musings

- Baylor is dead to me

- Good win for Florida State at home against Miami. North Carolina blew out Virginia at home. Virginia's fatal flaw, lack of offense exposed by Carolina who dominated them in the paint.

- UConn actually looked good today and lost big. Syracuse blew them out in the final four minutes. West Virginia has hit the skids. They blew a double digit, second half lead at home. They now find themselves squarely on the bubble.

Long Lost Brother?

1 seed vs 16 seed
Kentucky (SEC) vs Stony Brook(Aeast)/MissValley(SWAC)
Ohio State (B1G) vs NorfolkSt(MEAC)/Tex-Arlington(Sland)
Syracuse (Beast) vs UNC-Ashville (Bsouth)
Missouri (Big12) vs Long Island (NEC)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Kansas vs Weber St (BigSky)
Duke vs Belmont (Asun)
Michigan State vs Bucknell (Patriot)
Baylor vs Valparsio (Horizon)
3 seed vs 14 seed
North Carolina vs Drexel (CAA)
UNLV vs Davidson (SoCon)
Marquette vs Nevada (WAC)
Georgetown vs Akron (MAC)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Florida vs Iona (MAAC)
Wisconsin vs MidTennState (Sbelt)
Indiana vs Oral Roberts (Summit)
Michigan vs Long Beach State (Bwest)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Florida State (ACC) vs Arizona
St. Mary's (WCC) vs Xavier/Seton Hall
San Diego St (Mwest) vs BYU/Miami
Gonzaga vs Colorado State
6 seed vs 11 seed
Creighton vs North Carolina State
Vanderbilt vs Cincinnati
Louisville vs Purdue
Mississippi State vs California (Pac12)
7 seed vs 10 seed
Murray State (OVC) vs Illinois
Wichita State (MVC) vs St. Louis
Temple (A10) vs Iowa State
Virginia vs New Mexico
8 seed vs 9 seed
Alabama vs Southern Miss (Cusa)
Connecticut vs Harvard (Ivy)
Memphis vs Notre Dame
West Virginia vs Kansas State

First Four Out RPI
VCU 96
Northwestern 36
Texas 53
Minnesota 56
Next Four Out
Wyoming 69
Cleveland State 70
Oregon 66
Massachussets 63
Also Considered
Arkansas 67
Northern Iowa 59
Dayton 76
Oklahoma 81
Central Florida 55
South Florida 68
Marshall 61
LSU 78
Missouri State 83
New Mexico State 87
Stanford 99
Maryland 92
George Mason 105
LaSalle 73
Colorado 77
Ohio 89
Pittsburgh 65
Washington 75
Mississippi 52
St. Joseph's 47

Yes Virginia, the Cavaliers are a Bennett coached team

Fresh off their emotional loss to Duke last night, the Tar Heels get a home game against the grinding Virginia Cavaliers. Aren't they lucky? Make no bones about it, this Virginia team is a Tony Bennett team and like his father, their is always the potential for U-G-L-Y. Poor Huckleberry Roy.

Barring a late season swoon, the Cavaliers are poised to go dancing again. KenPom likes them. They're 17th (ADJ O 87; ADJ D 6). The RPI is 42. They're best win is at home against Michigan who struggled on the road early in the year. Virginia does have wins at LSU and Oregon. Not great wins but good wins. Any team going cross country early and getting a win is good. Road losses to Duke and FSU were hard fought games that went down to the wire.

The calling card, of course, is defense. They have an effective FG% on defense of 43.6 (14th in the nation). They DO NOT give up second chance baskets. Offensive rebound % against is 24.4. The national average is 32.3 They're slightly below average on the offensive side and they simply don't score alot (260th in the nation) but that is not a concern to them. They don't foul either. FTA/FGA%, they're 28.7, below the national average of 36.6. Opponents get 16.9% of their points at the line. Again, the national average is 20.5%. Nationally, they're 17th in PF per game.

This'll be the team that announcers will warn you about not wanting to face and Tony Bennett was 3-2 in tourney appearances at Wazzu, no small feat. In one of those games, UNC ran them off the court in the 2nd half. Ultimately, the offense will let them down. They don't make 3's, averaging only 5 a game. They protect the ball fairly well and are "efficient". 5th-year Sr. Mike Scott is their best player. He averages 17 & 8 per game. They lack the dynamo to take them to a Final Four but a win or two shouldn't come as a surprise.

Key announcer words for Virginia: Tempo, efficient, discipline, slow, smart

A Quick Look At Tonight's Games

Tonight's big games include Illinois at Indiana and St. Mary's at Gonzaga. Indiana is looking to build off their last win while Illinois is trying to right their ship and stay above .500 in the B1G. At home the Hoosiers have been very consistant and I don't expect that to change this evening. Indiana prevails and Illinois slide done one more seed to a 10. In the nightcap Gonzaga looks to avenge the slaughter at St. Mary's a couple weeks ago. Both teams are in the bracket comfortably but the Zags need this one more than the Gaels do. Home court prevails and the Zags hand St. Mary's their first 2012 West Coast Conference loss.

Happy Days

Top Of The World Ma!

Top of the World!!!

That just happened.

Really.

Picture of the Day

More likely

Tonight's Top 10 Matchups

Georgetown-Syracuse -9
In the first of the 3 top 10 matchups tonight we have the Hoyas visiting the Orange of Syracuse. A couple days ago Kurly posted a good article on Georgetown and the fact that they are overachieving this year based on preseason expectations. Although Georgetown has fared well up to this point they are in a hard spot tonight. I think Syracuse comes out hot and rolls to the win and cover. Syracuse 68, Georgetown 55

Kansas-Baylor -1.5
The game of the night if you aren’t an ACC fan the biggest surprise of this game is the spread. Baylor only by 1.5? Home court advantage dictates 3 or 4 points so on a neutral court Kansas would be favored? I don’t get it. I like Baylor home, away, near, far, etc. Kansas keeps it close most of the way but Baylor pulls away in the last 5 minutes. Baylor 73, Kansas 65

Duke-North Carolina -6.5
Ah, the true Game of the Night, Week, Month! Time to find out if these Blue Devils are for real. The Tar Heels have strung together a bunch of wins since that Florida State debacle but didn’t look especially good against Maryland over the weekend. Duke has been Jekyll and Hyde all year long and I expect it to continue tonight. Duke goes into the half with the lead but wilts down the stretch. UNC wins but Duke covers (as if that even matters). North Carolina 79, Duke 75

Picture of The Day

Bluegrass Brawn

Kentucky is playing a game the rest of the nation is not familiar with.

Anthony Davis is worth the price of admission just to watch play defense. Michael Kidd Gilchrist is so fast and explosive, too. This is easily Cal's best Kentucky team

Let's Review the Big 10

Ohio State (1 seed) – RPI of 4 and a SOS of 42, OSU has been in the top 5 all year long and I would expect that trend to continue. A number 1 seed at the moment I don’t envision that changing anytime between now and Selection Sunday. The Buckeyes will be one of the favorites come March but their lack of depth gives me concern. I reserve the right to change my mind but I think they lose before the Final Four

Michigan State (3 seed) – RPI of 7 and a SOS of 2 Sparty has been consistent all year long. 6-5 against the top 50 and 9-3 in their last 12 games Michigan State is rounding into shape as we hit the stretch run. Taking last year out of the equation Tom Izzo always has his team primed for a deep March run. Currently projected as a 3 seed I see them rolling into the tourney as a 2 seed. This team (like all Izzo teams) will be ready and are a Final Four dark horse.

Wisconsin (4 seed) – RPI of 30 and a SOS of 29 the Badgers will end up being who you thought they were…over seeded and ripe to be upset. This team has already lost 4 games at home and seem to never be able to score more than 57 points. Their tournament run will end as soon as they play an athletic team and it doesn’t even matter what seed they end up with. I think I’d actually like to see them as a 4 seed against 13 seeded Iona just to see them lose by 22.

Indiana (5 seed) – RPI of 17 and a SOS of 38 Indiana is still living off those Kentucky and Ohio State upsets. Computer numbers are solid but only 6-6 in their last 12 and 3-5 against the top 50. If they split the Kentucky and Ohio State games instead of winning both are they even in the top half of the bracket? Good news is there is plenty of time to solidify their profile and work back up to a 3 or 4 seed. If I told you this team would get a 4 and lose in the first round would you be surprised? If I told you they would get an 8 and upset Syracuse in the 2nd round would you be surprised? Me either….and I’m an expert.

Michigan (6 seed) – RPI of 15 and a SOS of 16. Ah, the Wolverines who gave Duke a scare last year will probably put a scare into a couple teams this year. 7-5 against the top 50 they’ve played better than most people probably think. Their issue is an extreme lack of depth (so does OSU) and their reliance on the 3 ball. If they are hot from the outside this team has the savvy to run to the Elite Eight. If they aren’t….say hello to Mitch McGady and goodbye to Harvard who just beat them.

Illinois (9 seed) – RPI of 41 and a SOS of 30. Without that vomit inducing 42-41 “win” over Michigan State last Tuesday is this team even in the bracket today? Unfortunately the answer is yes because expansion to 68 is causing us to find 37 at large teams. 5-5 vs the top 50, 55 in conference, 6-6 in the last 12 this team is AVERAGE! The schedule down the road is so-so and they’ll probably finish 9-9 in conference. That’ll give them a 8-10 seed and hopefully a date with a mid-major that outplays them.

Purdue (10 seed) – RPI of 62 and a SOS of 57. This team looks, plays, and smells like Illinois….Crappy. The numbers are the same as Illinois but their next couple games are a bit tougher. Tonight they get Ohio State and I see a finish of 8-10 in the conference. It might get bad enough that they are a play in game participant….and an underdog. Yuck!

Minnesota (12 seed) – RPI of 45 and a SOS of 69. This is not the same team since they lost Trevor Mbakwe. They’ve fought valiantly and are still hanging on but their computer numbers aren’t that great and the second half of the schedule involves Wisconsin twice, Ohio State, Michigan State, Indiana, and a trip to Northwestern. This team is NIT bound.

Northwestern (First Four Out) – RPI of 37 and a SOS of 11. Is this the year the Wildcats finally break through and make the big dance? That’s a definite…..maybe. 3-7 against the top 50 leaves a lot to be desired but there are plenty of opportunities in the stretch run. Iowa twice, plus Penn State and Minnesota provide the backbone of a couple wins. Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio State are the big ones. Northwestern needs 1 of those marquee wins to be considered on March 11. Will they get there?

March Madness Memories - Drew Nicholas

Worst grainy file ever. Best I could do.

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Remember, you can’t spell Fun with Funyons. I guess you can’t spell Funaki without Fun either but I digress.

Monday Afternoon Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed
Kentucky (SEC) vs Stony Brook(Aeast)/MissValley(SWAC)
Ohio State (B1G) vs NorfolkSt(MEAC)/Tex-Arlington(Sland)
Syracuse (Beast) vs UNC-Ashville (Bsouth)
Missouri (Big12) vs Long Island (NEC)
2 seed vs 15 seed
North Carolina (ACC) vs Weber St (BigSky)
Baylor vs Belmont (Asun)
Kansas vs Bucknell (Patriot)
Duke vs Drexel (CAA)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Michigan State vs Akron (MAC)
Georgetown vs Davidson (SoCon)
Florida vs Nevada (WAC)
UNLV (Mwest) vs Cleveland State (Horizon)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Marquette vs Iona (MAAC)
Creighton (MVC) vs MidTennState (Sbelt)
Wisconsin vs Oral Roberts (Summit)
St. Mary's (WCC) vs Long Beach State (Bwest)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Florida State vs Xavier
Murray State (OVC) vs BYU/Miami
Indiana vs Minnesota/NC State
San Diego St vs Cincinnati
6 seed vs 11 seed
Michigan vs Colorado State
Gonzaga vs Washington (Pac12)
Vanderbilt vs California
Louisville vs St. Louis
7 seed vs 10 seed
West Virginia vs Purdue
Mississippi State vs Notre Dame
Wichita State vs New Mexico
Connecticut vs Harvard (Ivy)
8 seed vs 9 seed
Alabama vs Illinois
Southern Miss (Cusa) vs Iowa State
Virginia vs Memphis
Temple (A10) vs Kansas State

First Four Out
Seton Hall
VCU
Northwestern
Pittsburgh
Next Four Out
Texas
Mississippi
St. Joseph's
Arizona
Also Considered
Arkansas
Northern Iowa
Dayton
Oklahoma
Central Florida
Massachussets
South Florida
Oregon
Marshall
LSU
Missouri State
New Mexico State
St. Bonaventure
Wyoming
Stanford
Maryland
George Mason
LaSalle
Colorado
Ohio

Hoyas

There weren't a lot of expectations for Georgetown this year but they now sit in second place in the puzzling Big East. The Hoyas have very good computer numbers along with their 18-4 (8-3) record. KenPom has them 14th and they have a RPI of 13. They've played a tough schedule as well (22nd SOS). Their best non-con wins are two wins over 20 RPI Memphis and at 35 RPI Alabama. Their only four losses are against likely tourney teams with Cincinnati being the only one on the bubble.

This is a very good defensive team, a JTIII staple. They're 6th in AdjD and 9th in defensive effective fg% d. They're also above average on defensive rebound %. Teams don't get good looks from beyond the arc. 24% of opponent scoring is from beyond the arc vs. a national average of 27.5%. Nationally, they're 10th in 3pt made against. The traditional numbers favor them, too. 22nd in scoring defense and 30th in fg% defense.

They're 56th in AdjO. Not great but not brutal. They're deficient from beyond the arc and their go to guy, C Henry Sims shoots only 46%, slim for a big guy. They only make 6 3 balls per game so their defense against it is key.

Give Georgetown credit. They came into the season unhearlded and I think a lot of people keep waiting for a fall and it hasn't happened. I don't expect a big March run and they'll be a trendy upset pick but it's still been a wonderful season.

Note - They'll lose to Syracuse this week. These little snippet pieces have been a kiss of death for teams.

Urban Meyer Rebuttal

Call a WAAAAAAHmbulance. The B1G is littered with meathead coaches like Fingerbang who can appease a fanbase with bowl exhibitions and now has to compete against a guy and a staff that doesn't back down to anyone or accept anything less than competeting for mythical national titles.

Bartime's going to have to lay off following Nickelback around the country and get better players. Good luck when Brady Hoke and Pat Fitzgerald already backed Uncle Urb and said it's go time.

There's no crying in recruiting except in Madison and East Lansing.

Urban Meyer

Ok, I just don't get this love affair with Urban Meyer. He used his family as an excuse to work his way out of, back in, and then out of Florida. Went to ESPN for a year and then took a job at Ohio State. That's like me quitting my job to spend more time with my family and then going to Potowotomi 5 days a week.

He's dirty but just hasn't been caught. Beilema can't coach a big game but he's on to something with this...

Saturday afternoon musings

- Syracuse and Georgetown looked thoroughly dominant in wins over St. John's and USF. Need to look at the Hoyas.

- The Mountain West is fascinating (well, to me it is). UNLV lost a close one at a good Wyoming team today. The non-BCS conferences have really been battles this year.

- Florida pressures the daylights out of Vandy who lost again. There's something about the collection of players there. Turnovers galore. Florida State had a grind 'er out W at home against pain in the side Virginia. Remember, no more UNC for FSU. Still have Duke at home and a return trip with UVA. They'd be a surprise ACC champ.

- And the state teams today lost in two different ways. Marquette simply couldn't convert around the rim and Notre Dame was making everything. I give Marquette credit. I'd have rochambeaud all those Irish players. Nice overrated chant from the student section. That's rich coming from a Notre Dame crowd. As for Bucky, don't worry. Uncle Urb will probably get 60 against you so you held their hoops team below that. Wonder if Bo Ryan will ask Barry to address the talent discrepancy with commissioner Jim Delaney? It just isn't fair! Sorry, I have a man crush on Urban Meyer

Contributor Challenge Answer #2

1. The easy pick is Duke but I'm going to go with Ohio State and their lack of depth

2. With the matchups I would agree with Kurly and take Iona over Georgetown. Based on teams I would go with Wisconsin or Florida

3. Again, matchup's it Iona. Team strength I go with Middle Tennesee State who almost upset Vanderbilt and is at a very strong 20-3. I would have said Long Beach State but they are a 12 seed.

4. I like Michigan but they have no bench. Deep sleepers would be Wichita State and St. Louis

5. Sticking with my preseason pick of Syracuse but Kentucky is right there.

Contributor Challenge Answer

1. Duke would be the most likely to lose during the first weekend but Syracuse wouldn't surprise me.

2. IF Georgetown were to actually play Iona, I'd pick them to lose in the first round. Wisconsin will be a popular choice, too, depending on matchup.

3. Iona, Cleveland State and Weber State

4. Non-top 3 to make the Final Four, my choice would be Wisconsin if they shot like they did in 2000 but I think they lack a depth, an issue for Michigan, too. Vanderbilt is a sexy choice but I don't think they're consistent enough. If not Bucky, then Florida.

5. Kentucky is my favorite. This is Calipari's best team. tOSU is choice number two with Syracuse a distant third.

* - Subject to change

OC March Madness Contributors Challenge

I challenge all Contributors to this blog to post an article answering these questions using this mornings posted bracket.

The most likely #1 seed to lose the first weekend will be…

The most likely 2-4 seed to be upset in the 1st round will be…

The most likely 13-15 seed to spring that upset will be…

The most likely non-top 3 seed team to make the Final Four will be…

My favorite to win it all is….

Friday Morning Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed
Kentucky (SEC) vs UNC-Ashville(Bsouth)/MissValley(SWAC)
Ohio State (B1G) vs Stony Brook(Aeast)/Tex-Arlington(Sland)
Syracuse (Beast) vs Norfolk State (MEAC)
Duke (ACC) vs Long Island (NEC)
2 seed vs 15 seed
North Carolina vs Weber St (BigSky)
Kansas (Big12) vs Belmont (Asun)
Baylor vs Bucknell (Patriot)
Missouri vs VCU (CAA)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Marquette vs Akron (MAC)
Creighton (MVC) vs Davidson (SoCon)
UNLV (Mwest) vs LaSalle (A10)
Michigan State vs Cleveland State (Horizon)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Georgetown vs Iona (MAAC)
Florida vs Nevada (WAC)
Wisconsin vs Oral Roberts (Summit)
St. Mary's (WCC) vs MidTennState (Sbelt)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Vanderbilt vs Long Beach State (Bwest)
Michigan vs NC State/Cincinnati
Murray State (OVC) vs Minnesota/Colorado State
Florida State vs Xavier
6 seed vs 11 seed
West Virginia vs Washington (Pac12)
San Diego St vs Seton Hall
Gonzaga vs California
Indiana vs Notre Dame
7 seed vs 10 seed
Virginia vs St. Louis
Louisville vs New Mexico
Mississippi State vs Harvard (Ivy)
Wichita State vs Iowa State
8 seed vs 9 seed
Connecticut vs Memphis
Southern Miss (Cusa) vs Purdue
Illinois vs Temple
Alabama vs Kansas State

First Four Out
Mississippi
BYU
Dayton
Miami
Next Four Out
Texas
Northwestern
Marshall
St. Joseph's
Also Considered
Arkansas
Northern Iowa
Pittsburgh
Oklahoma
Central Florida
Massachussets
South Florida
Oregon
Ohio
Drexel
LSU
Missouri State
New Mexico State
St. Bonaventure
Colorado
Wyoming
Stanford
Arizona
Maryland
George Mason

February Musing

February’s here and that brings twice a week Bracketology updates. It also brings teams falling in and out on a daily basis. Time to separate the boys from the men, the pretenders from the contenders, the Wolverines from the Hoosiers.
Yep, that last statement has meaning as Michigan had a big statement win last night against Indiana. I pegged the Hoosiers as the Big Ten team most likely to fall last month and I’m not backing down from that statement. Indiana was as high as a 2 seed in early January but at this point have fallen to a 6 seed. With a tough road ahead I see a further drop for them and unless that win a couple games they won’t be favored in I’m not seeing anything higher than a 8 or 9 seed come March.
Michigan on the other hand looks to be one of those 4-6 seed teams that can make a surprise run to the Elite Eight and perhaps even the Final Four. I’m not ready to go that far out on a limb but I like what I see from them and they might….just might be the Big Ten team that goes the furthest come Madness time.

March Madness Memories - He Got It!

This will be remembered in the basement as the snowball game as sometime during it somebody got drilled through the side window while cleaning off the Dish.

Mid Major Watch - Long Beach State

Long Beach State is currently sitting at 16-6 and first place in the Big West. Although they are projected to win the Big West automatic bid a closer look at their profile suggests they should get some at-large consideration should they slip up in the conference tournament. KenPom has them rated as the 40th most efficiency team coming in at 32nd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 75th in defensive efficiency. Their RPI is 36th and SOS sits at a very respectable 62nd which is phenomenal for a Mid-Major team. What is the most telling number though is the Non-Conference SOS which is currently #1 in the nation. Long Beach State scheduled some tough opponents including 6 that are currently in the top 25. Close losses at San Diego State (by 4), at Louisville (by 9), at Kansas (by 8), at North Carolina (by 6), and at a neutral site vs Kansas State are offset slightly by wins over Xavier, Pittsburgh and Auburn. The Beach will have 1 more shot at a monumental win over Bracketbuster weekend when they travel to Creighton. I believe a win here will give the selection committee enough to think about come Selection Sunday if they don’t grab the auto-bid. If they lose to Creighton however they may look back at those losses as a missed opportunity.
Should Long Beach get into the tournament I have them projected as a very dangerous 12 seed. They are battle tested and will not roll over for a 5 seed in round 1. They'll be a very sexy 12 over 5 pick come March 15 and potentially a Sweet Sixteen team come the following weekend