Definitely Wrong....

Sorry Ben, gotta destroy your theory.....here's the problem. Oregon. Record: (7-20, 1-14 Pac 10).

Ridiculously stoopid hot cheerleaders:
Oregon Cheer

Go to the link. Scroll to the bottom. Check the picture. Find the ugly one, I dare you. Ain't no corn fed Wisky cheerleaders in there.....

Brian Nye the Science Guy

Geez, Brian. Rank Team Adjusted Defense Efficiency Adjusted Offense Efficiency ? There's a science to this? I just go with the "who has hotter cheerleaders" method.

Maybe I'm doing it wrong.

Douche Bag of the Day

Goes to Former Duke star Jay Bilas. Once again this morning when pressed to pick a winner in the Virginia Tech - Duke game, Bilas goes with VaTech. What an over compensating Douche Bag Prick. Stick up for your alma matter jerk. Digger always picks Notre Dame why can't you show some pride? Stupid Ass O'Lantern.

Saturday Morning Update

Niagara beat Siena last night so both remain in the conversation for now. Could the MAAC be a two bid league?

Siena 22-7, SOS 65,RPI 27, KenPom 69
Niagara 23-7, SOS 137, RPI 57, KenPom 64

Are either worth a At-Large?

Two bonus cherries if you know their mascots without looking

To Answer Your Question

Due to the bubble being dominated by BCS schools all the cool 12 seeds from years prior, like Davidson, Siena, and VCU, will actually be 13 seeds because their RPI's aren't going to be high enough to be seeded in the 11 or 12 range. In addition, if teams like North Iowa, Niagara, or Northeastern win their auto-bid, those are going to be the 13 seeds. So, in a nutshell, what I'm saying is the trendy picks in the past have been 12 seeds and this year I predict they will be 13 seeds.

Of course, you do know that Marquette is going to lose 2 of 3 and then get a 5 seed. right?

Bracket Question

Discussion with a guy at work.....Is there a trendy #13 pick that could knock of Marquette in the first round? Are they now "vulnerable"??


Cool post on the O and D stats. Now I will dominate even further.

Bracket Help

I was going to keep this to myself but I like to share so here it goes. If you've noticed I mentioned adjusted offense and defense efficiency a lot lately. The reason I've kept a close eye on this stat this year is that I've found 2 stats that are eye opening for picking brackets. Essentially what the Efficiency stats are reporting are the amount of points scored (offense) per 100 possessions and the amount of point given up (defense) per 100 possessions. The offense efficiency is cool to see but the defense efficiency is key and you'll see why here:

No Team has ever made the Elite 8 that was not in the top 50 in defensive efficiency

and further

No Team has ever made the Final 4 that was not in the top 25 in defensive efficiency

Now, what this is saying is you can basically remove a ton of teams from your brackets right away. I've kept a close eye on UNC because I'd love to be able to remove them from the equation right away. Currently they are 19th in defensive efficiency (2nd in offense) so they still remain in the mix. The rest of the top 25 are below, along with the link.

Rank Team Adjusted Defense Efficiency Adjusted Offense Efficiency
1 Memphis (25-3) 81.3 113.3
2 Louisville (22-5) 84.1 111.1
3 Connecticut (26-2) 85.0 115.8
4 Illinois (23-6) 85.3 106.1
5 Purdue (21-7) 85.7 108.0
6 West Virginia (19-9) 86.0 112.9
7 Duke (23-5) 87.9 117.3
8 Missouri (24-4) 87.9 115.8
9 Stephen F. Austin (18-7) 88.1 93.7
10 Kansas (23-5) 88.1 114.6
11 Michigan St. (22-5) 88.4 113.3
12 Florida St. (21-7) 88.5 103.7
13 Washington (21-7) 88.8 113.1
14 Washington St. (15-13) 89.1 105.7
15 Kentucky (19-9) 89.2 107.2
16 Wake Forest (21-5) 89.5 112.8
17 Xavier (23-5) 89.7 110.5
18 Nebraska (16-10) 89.7 101.2
19 North Carolina (24-3) 90.1 123.0
20 Brigham Young (21-6) 90.2 115.9
21 Southern California (16-11) 90.3 108.4
22 Wright St. (17-12) 90.4 97.5
23 Minnesota (20-8) 90.8 106.1
24 Gonzaga (22-5) 91.0 116.5
25 Arizona St. (21-6) 91.1 117.1


http://www.kenpom.com/rate.php?s=AdjDE

Non Top 10 Final Four Teams

If you're looking for a couple long shots for the Final Four let me present you with a couple options.

Missouri
Currently 23-4 and 4th in the underrated Big 12. They've slowly rose to top ten in the polls (like the polls mean anything anyway). If any team in the ACC or Big East had their resume they'd be in the hunt for #1 seed. Currently only 1 of 6 teams that are in the top 20 in adjusted offense efficiency and top 20 adjusted defense efficiency.

Gonzaga
A preseason Final Four pick for myself I have not wavered on their chances. Only 22-5 at this point they are still in line for a 6 or 7 seed. Take out their loss to Portland State, their remaining 4 losses came against teams currently in the field including 2 against teams in line for a 1 seed (Uconn and Memphis)

BYU
Another one of the teams that falls in the top 20 of both categories mentioned above. Their record is not gaudy at 21-6 but all their losses are against tournament teams (ASU, Wake, and Utah) or potential tournament teams (New Mexico and UNLV twice). Pomeroy rankings have them at 11

Friday Morning Update

Well, an eventful night results in only one move into the bracket. Cincinnati, on the strength of beating West Virginia, leaps Notre Dame and finds itself in the bracket. Notre Dame is now one of the last 4 out. The biggest movers are UAB and Temple who lost and now basically need to at least make their conference tournament finals to be considered for an at large bid. I'll leave them in the also considered at this point but they are on life support. Inside the bracket, Minnesota continues their late season fade and are now one of the last 4 in. Arizona also loses but remain a great bet for now.

The only game of note tonight is Siena at Niagara. The loser will be removed from consideration and even the winner might not have At-large hopes.

F-ing Memphis

Whew! Now that I've gotten through reading all the posts from Hacker and Niemi, I finally made it to the top of the list...

Seriously, does anyone like Memphis? Thought that UAB was going to pull it out.

Responding to the "is losing DJames good or bad for MU" question....I vote bad. I'm not his #1 fan, but his play this year has been much more in line with what I've wanted out of him. See earlier post on Djames 4.0:
http://ocsmarchmadness.blogspot.com/2009/01/analysis-of-dominic-james-v40.html

So, you lost a 4 year starter, basically having played every minute this year with McNeal, Matthews and the Lazer. I think Acker is capable, but he will be a liability on Defense as compared to James (as much as 5-9 dudes can be productive on D). MU bench drops down to one player who gets any meaningful PT at all (drive the hoop Jimmy Butler). You also get the emotional aspect of it also.....does everyone else step it up, or do deep down the believe they're in trouble now?

I think with the DJames version the last 2 years I could have made a better case....not so much this year.

Man, I hate Memphis.

I Had To Post This

I had to Post this because I watched it live and saw the whole thing. I remember laughing out loud at how ridiculous it was

Thursday Evening Bubble Games

Here's a look at tonight's bracket adjusting games.

Minnesota at Illinois
Both are in and I'm not sure a loss will drop Minny out. A win almost locks up a bid

West Virginia at Cincinnati
Huggins returns to Cincy. The Bearcats desperately need a signature win. This would qualify

LaSalle at Temple
Temple must win this and Sunday's game versus Xavier to remain in the hunt

Miami at Virginia
Miami, 5-8 in the ACC, needs every win it can get

Memphis at UAB
Game of the night on ESPN2. Memphis hasn't lost in months. A win for UAB puts them in the bracket. I smell upset.

Purdue at Michigan
Elimination game for Michigan after blowing Sunday's game at Iowa

Arizona at Washington State
Arizona must get back on the winning side of things. Washington State is dangerous at home

USC at California
USC is currently out looking in and needs a couple wins in the last two weeks to creep back in

Arizona State at Washington
The Pac 10 lead is on the line

Bracket as of 2/26

Click on it and fill it out. Who's your Final Four at this point?

Thursday Morning Update

Wednesday saw the good, a Duke win, and the bad, a Marquette loss. Outside of the hometown vibe the only team that fell out of the bracket was Maryland. They were replaced by the surging Fighting Irish of Notre Dame. Other teams that took a tumble were mid-majors, Dayton and UNLV. Both remained in the field but their grasp on a bid is slipping. Going the other way was Rhode Island, who suddenly are only a half game out of the A-10 lead. At 10-4 in conference with a RPI of 57 the Rams suddenly look like a prospective tourney team.

Domonic James Out for the Season

Good or Bad for Marquette? Discuss....

MU- UConn

Well.....there you go. Pretty entertaining game, Marquette proved that you can come back from the dead at least 10 times in a game. I dont think I've seen a game that streaky in quite a while. MU did a lot of proof work on how you can shoot yourself out of and back into and then back out of games.

No surprise that Thabeet had 15 rebounds or that MU was out-rebounded by 19. However, if you'd have told me this game was getting to the 170+ total, I would have thought MU win. But between Price being mostly unconscious and Robinson having 57 dunks and the general size difference, too much to overcome. Jimmy Butler had some nice minutes, although he looks inept on offense.....unless he gets that sweet broken defense drive in the lane.

News of the game is DJames out indefinitely, sounding more like the season. I dont like the dude, but you have to feel for a guy thats started for 4 years and now probably wont get to play the tourney with his best team. This of course exposes MU's lack of depth even further, as now they are down to 6 guys who play with any regularity. Props to Dickie V for pointing out the non-existence of David Cubillan - probably dont have a choice now but to lay him.

Next 2 games looking even worse now without James. ugh. Boo-urns.

Plumlee side note. Good God. Good to see that Duke will be set on mouth breathers well into the next decade. Check out that goofy looking grill on Mason.

Meet Marshall Plumlee

6-10 High School Sophomore. Lists Duke as a possible destination. OK, that's just freaky. 3 kids, 3 years apart, all 6-10+. Please tell me what Perky (yes his name is Perky) and Leslie Plumbee fed these kids because Evan and Carson are young enough to get on any program they were on.

Meet Mason Plumlee

6-10 High School senior. Committed to Duke as a top 15 recruit. Wow, two 6-10 kids in 2 years. Mom and Dad must be huge.

Meet Miles Plumlee

Say Hello to Miles Plumlee, 6-10 freshman on Duke. Must be nice to have a 6-10 kid; must be good genetics.

Not March Madness

But Funny anyway. Wait for the comparison to 350+ pound BJ Raji...

Team You Want To See Make The Tournament (Speed Division)

Oklahoma State
Averages 83.3 points per game in the slowed down Big 12. Travis Ford brought his high octane offense from Massachusetts to Oklahoma State. If this team was in any other conference, except the Big 10, they would be averaging 90 plus.

VMI
Speaking of 90 plus points a game; VMI averages 94.8 a game. Led by twins, Travis and Chavis Holmes, this is pure Atlanta Falcons Run and Gun offense. Don't forget this team scores 111 in an upset win over Kentucky earlier in the season

North Dakota State
Another high octane offense, the Bison average 81.2 a game. They are led by Ben Woodside who scored 61 points in a game earlier in the season. In other words he scored almost twice as many as Illinois did as a team against Penn State last week.

Wednesday Night Games

Here's a look at tonight's bracket adjusting games.

Kentucky at South Carolina
Both are in at the moment. This game is for seeding

Rutgers at Notre Dame
ND needs this stay in the discussion. They are getting hot at the right time

Dayton at Rhode Island
The Island needs to win or they are out of consideration. If Dayton loses they might fall out of the bracket

Uconn at Marquette
Game of the night. Marquette is still in the hunt for a #1 or #2 seed

VaTech at Clemson
VaTech is one of the last 4 in. They need a win

Houston at Tulsa
Both on life support. Loser is out. Winner is probably out too

Mississippi State at Tennessee
Tennessee needs to right the ship. Computer numbers are great but alot of losses piling up

Kansas State at Missouri
K-state needs to hang on to their slim hopes. A win pushes them close to a bid

Duke-Maryland
Can Maryland repeat their performance against UNC or will they lose by 40 again

UNLV at Utah
UNLV needs a win to hang on. A loss and they might fall out. Utah's win give them lock status

Oklahoma State at Colorado
Okie State needs a win to hang on in the final 4 in. A loss cripples them.

Wednesday's Bubble Update

The biggest move of the night goes to Providence who upends #1 Pitt to leap frog a ton of teams to make it to the Last 4 in. Dropping out of the field is Penn State who dropped a game to OSU last night. 3 teams lose must win games last night and are removed from the Also Considered list. Those teams are Nebraska, Illinois State, and Baylor. The other big loser of the night was San Diego State who was the last team out yesterday but lost to BYU to tumble even further down the list.

The Brushback Article....Sweet

Struggling Duke To Start Recruiting More Black Kids

DURHAM, NC--The Duke Blue Devils lost to the B.C. Eagles on Sunday, dropping their record to 20-5 and raising questions about their ability to compete for a national title this year. The loss offered further proof that Duke is no longer the gold standard for Division I college hoops, and have slid towards the middle of the pack in recent years.

Coach Mike Krzyzewski, never one to sit on his hands, is mulling ways to revamp the program. Among the strategies he is considering is the recruitment and signing of more black kids.

“I think we need to start signing more black kids,” Krzyzewski admitted in a press conference after the game. “If you look at all the teams that are beating us and all the teams that are in front of us, you’re going to see a lot of black kids. By contrast, we have a lot of white kids. And I mean really white. Some of them even have freckles. My only choice now is to start recruiting more black kids. It feels like kind of a sellout, but you do what you have to do.”

Historically, the Duke men’s basketball program has featured a larger ratio of whites to blacks than most Division I programs, yet still managed to remain one of college basketball’s elite. In recent years, however, the Blue Devils have fallen back to earth.

“We’re just not as dominant as we used to be,” said Krzyzewski. “And when I look at the elite teams today I see a totally different demographic than what we have. I mean at the very least, we should get white kids who are actually tall and don’t look like little children out there. As it stands right now, if we added an Asian player to our roster we would look very much like the cast of Goonies.”

Some say there are other factors involved in Duke’s decline that have nothing to do with the racial makeup of the team. For instance, the Blue Devils have not had a dominant big man since Carlos Boozer. They also have problems at the point guard position.

“This isn’t really a black or white issue,” said ESPN analyst Jay Bilas. “This is an issue of not having a good enough center or point guard. Coach K needs to spend the next offseason recruiting quality talent to man those positions. It doesn’t matter what color they are. Look at Gonzaga: they have a lot of white players and they’re pretty successful. Though to be fair, their whites are a bunch of rough-and-tumble lumberjack types, as opposed to the prep school nancies over there in Durham.”

Following Sunday’s loss, the question now is whether Duke can salvage this season and still compete for a championship. The latter seems like a longshot, though the Blue Devils haven’t given up hope just yet.

“We are still very much alive as far as winning our conference and we still believe we can win it all,” said guard Greg Paulus. “It’s just that we’re still trying to find ourselves. Some games we look like a high energy team with excellent 3-point shooting and some games we look slow and plodding and disorganized. Do we need more black players? Yes. Can we still compete even though we’re loaded with white guys? Sure. As long as there is a three-point line, there will be a place for us in this game.”

Tonight's Big Games

Northern Iowa at Illinois State
Neither team has high hopes for an at large but the loser is definitely eliminated

Pittsburgh at Providence
Providence needs this to stay alive. Pittsburgh is looking to hang on to the #1 seed

Penn State at Ohio State
Penn State looks to cement their stay in the field. Ohio State would fall to last 4 in, or further with a loss.

Florida State at Boston College
Boston College is in and may remain with a loss. A win and they are close to lock status

Texas a&M at Nebraska
Loser is done, winner still needs help

BYU at San Diego State
Loser falls out of the bracket, not out of the discussion, just out of the bracket for the time being

On top of these games New Mexico, Creighton, and Syracuse have important winnable games

Goodbye Georgetown

Georgetown loses again to fall to 5-10 in the Big East and 14-12 overall. Unless they get the auto-bid they are done. Great choice Greg Monroe, way to pick Georgetown over Duke.

UNC = Muppets

An Oldie But Goodie

Past Tournament Memories

Stephen Curry makes Wisconsin look fooish and Gus Johnson orgasm at the same time.

A Big Week Ahead

With only 2 weeks of regular season ahead this is a big week for the also considered group. Of the 13 left more than half have to win out to make the tournament. We'll be watching the likes of Georgetown, Providence, Northern Iowa, Tulsa, New Mexico, and Michigan as 1 more loss and they are out unless they win the conference tournament and auto-bid. Should be fun.

Let's Try With Seedings

1 seed vs 16 seed
Pittsburgh vs Play in Winner
Oklahoma vs Long Beach State
North Carolina vs Morgan State
Connecticut vs Tenn-Martin

2 seed vs 15 seed
Memphis vs American
Louisville vs Radford
Duke vs Robert Morris
Marquette vs Cornell

3 seed vs 14 seed
Missouri vs Vermont
Michigan State vs Weber State
Villanova vs North Dakota State
Clemson vs Stephen F. Austin

4 seed vs 13 seed
Washington vs Western Kentucky
Arizona State vs Buffalo
Kansas vs Davidson
Xavier vs Virginia Tech

5 seed vs 12 seed
Florida State vs Maryland
Purdue vs Penn State
LSU vs VCU
Wake Forest vs Boston College

6 seed vs 11 seed
Utah vs Siena
Texas vs Creighton
Syracuse vs Oklahoma State
UCLA vs Wisconsin

7 seed vs 10 seed
Florida vs Arizona
California vs UNLV
Butler vs Utah State
Illinois vs Ohio State

8 seed vs 9 seed
Tennessee vs Kentucky
Gonzaga vs South Carolina
West Virginia vs Minnesota
Dayton vs BYU

Play In Game
Alabama State
Jacksonville

Conferences with Multiple Seeds:
Big East 7
Pac 10 4
SEC 4
ACC 8
Big 12 4
Big 10 7
Atlantic 10 2
Mountain West 3

Monday Morning Bracketology

Official Stats
Conference Tourney Winners = 31
Locks = 22 Great Bets = 8
Last 4 in = 4
Total At Large Bids = 34
Total Teams Invited = 65

Automatic Bids (31)
1 American East - Vermont
2 ACC - North Carolina
3 Atlantic Sun - Jacksonville
4 Atlantic 10 - Xavier
5 Big East - Connecticut
6 Big Sky - Weber State
7 Big South - Radford
8 Big 10 - Michigan State
9 Big 12 - Oklahoma
10 Big West - Long Beach State
11 Colonial - VCU
12 C-USA - Memphis
13 Horizon - Butler
14 Ivy League - Cornell
15 MAAC - Siena
16 MAC - Buffalo
17 MEAC - Morgan State
18 Missouri Valley - Creighton
19 Mountain West - Utah
20 NorthEast - Robert Morris
21 Ohio Valley - Tenn-Martin
22 Pac 10 - Washington
23 Patriot - American
24 SEC - LSU
25 Southern - Davidson
26 Southland - Stephen F. Austin
27 Summit - North Dakota State
28 Sun Belt - Western Kentucky
29 SWAC - Alabama State
30 WAC - Utah State
31 West Coast - Gonzaga

Locks (22)
1 Wake Forest 17
2 Texas 38
3 Duke 4
4 Florida State 18
5 Louisville 12
6 Clemson 9
7 Marquette 21
8 Pittsburgh 1
9 Syracuse 24
10 Wisconsin 27
11 Florida 40
12 Illinois 16
13 Purdue 23
14 West Vriginia 15
15 Kansas 7
16 Missouri 14
17 Arizona State 22
18 Villanova 10
19 California 32
20 Dayton 29
21 South Carolina 44
22 UCLA 36

Great Bets (8)
1 UNLV 50
2 Minnesota 35
3 Boston College 54
4 Ohio State 43
5 Kentucky 63
6 Arizona 42
7 Tennessee 25
8 BYU 30

Last Four In (4)
1 Penn State 62
2 Oklahoma State 31
3 Maryland 52
4 Virginia Tech 66

Last Four Out (4)
1 San Diego State 47
2 UAB 37
3 Temple 34
4 Kansas State 74

Next Four Out (4)
1 Notre Dame 72
2 Miami - Fla 46
3 USC 49
4 St. Mary's 51

Also Considered (13)
1 Texas A&M 39
2 Georgetown 45
3 Cincinnati 55
4 Michigan 56
5 Baylor 57
6 Illinois State 58
7 Niagara 64
8 Nebraska 65
9 Rhode Island 68
10 Tulsa 69
11 New Mexico 70
12 Providence 76
13 Northern Iowa 81

The last team I put in was Virginia Tech. I really think it should be Temple or UAB but I went with an ACC team because I have an ACC bias.

Where's Poochie?

"...whenever Poochie's not onscreen, all the other characters should be asking "Where's Poochie"? "

I assume this has been the thought as you have missed me horribly on the blog. I wont lie, it has been a combination of Bridget's newfound crack habit of Facebook taking up my 'puter time, as well as general laziness. But enough about that, I gots things to say.....

First, you havent been getting enough Marquette with my lack of bloooggginnng. (insert Professor Frink nerd voice). So here goes. The Villanova game was a joke. Yes, MU can play up-tempo. But they cant play run and gun. They went NBA for a game and got their asses handed to them. They got some nice home cookin against St Johns and Satan's Hall and righted the ship. So, now the nasty part of the schedule....but I will say it looks a little better. Georgetown is a 14-10 team. MU is not favored tomorrow, but this is a game they honestly should win if they are worthy of their ranking, on the road in a tough matchup. UConn comes in a nice spot, getting them at home with Dyson out. MU will be amped up for this one, but can they contain Thabeet? I think they go 1-1 over these two games.

I honestly dont like their chances @ Louisville, for whatever reason they seem to own MU. Damn Jerry Smith, traitor. @ Pitt is another probable loss before a win at home vs. Syracuse. So, unfortunately I think they back in 2-3 the end of the year, I'll be curious to see how tough they end up playing these games.

Speaking of Pitt..raise your hand if you've seen them play and thought, "Damn, they look tough!" me too. Blair is a beast, and with Young and fat Lavance Fields, thats a good trio. Wanna pick them to the final four? me too. Sick of getting your bracker f-ed over the last few years by Pitt? me too. Not sure what to do with them....

Couldnt Obama bring some "Change" to Big Ten Basketball? 38-33? Loyola Marymount used to score that in the first 10 minutes of the first half.

Ben, we're in line for 6-8 inches tonite/tomorrow...keep hope alive.

I applaud the additions of extra energy drinks and cherries. Are we still up for the 5th TV showing Simpsons and Family Guy? If so I'll work on making it happen....

Friday Morning Update

Not much of a change today. Minnesota loses to fall from Great Bet to Last 4 in. 7th in the Big Ten is not where you want to be and they are dangerously close to falling out of the tourney. Sunday's game against Northwestern is huge. Stanford's loss drops them out of the also considered list; down to 14 now. This weekend is going to make it or break it for a lot of teams, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, most of the Big Ten, and the second tier ACC teams.

Sponsors.

This year we have been informed that Delta Airlines will not be renewing their contract. This is mainly due to their sponsorship going unused last year as my plans changed. That being said, another carrier has stepped up in their place. Really, it's about time as they have been providing my official travel for many years.


Oh, wait. That's not correct. They changed their name. The new official airline of Brian's basement is:

Thank you, US Airways for stepping up and providing this valuable service. Because we all know there's nothing better than Wisconsin in March.

Side note - I know all of you are sick of it by now but I want another 16 inches of snow this year. You have a month. Make it happen.

And I'll try not to get horizontal again when running outside to knock the snow off of the dish.

Anyone know why this picture is so confusing?

Separated at birth...Vandy's Kevin Stallings and Otto

Maraschino Cherries

One month away and another new sponsor this year. Please put your hands together for Economy Size Roundy's Brand Maraschino Cherries. What you say? Why would we have Cherries as a sponsor? Well, normal cherries would not be welcome at March Madness. However, half of the cherries have been marinading in Cherry McGillicuddies for the past couple of weeks and the other half in Vodka. I can vouch for the McGillaCherries as I've snuck a few of them already. As for the Vodka ones, they might bring new meaning to the term 'Scary Cherries".

One Month Away

One month from this morning and we'll all be enjoying a White Wine Spritzer while watching the Price is Right in my basement. Wait, make that enjoying 6 kegs of Busch Light while watching 4 TV's. Can you feel the excitement building....tick tock tick tock. 3 week of the regular season and 1 of conference championships left. Time to really start buckling down and practicing this college basketball watching thing. Who's in?

Goodbye Houston

The Houston Cougers' bubble has burst after losing to Marshall tonight. Without the automatic bid they won't be able to make the tournament. They will be removed from the also considered.

Ladies and Gentleman, the Big Ten

Penn State 38, Illinois 33. That's right, a team currently listed as a 4 seed by CBS scored 33 points in entire game. Geez, even Wisconsin gets in the 50's. Yep, the Big Ten is back alright.

Another Sponsor

In a bold move Red Bull has re-upped their sponsorship from last year and will also be represented this year at March Madness. With this surprising announcement of co-sponsorship we will be able to produce Pucker bombs in two distinct flavors. 6 hour energy, Red Bull, and Rock Star; the only thing left to get is Chaser, to avoid the hangover altogether.

My Bold Prediction

At this point in the year the number 1 seeds are clear. Oklahoma, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, and Connecticut. Everything after that is a mess. Michigan State is currently a 2 seed. Yes the same team that lost at home to both Penn State and Northwestern is a top 8 team at this point. The truth of the matter is outside of the previously mentioned 1 seeds there isn't much difference between the 2 seeds and the 11 seeds. Currently my two seeds are Michigan State, Louisville, Memphis, and Clemson. Are those teams that much better than my projected 11 seeds, Minnesota, Virginia Tech, Providence, and Boston College? Geez, even BC's knocked off a 1 and a 3 seed (Duke) this year.
Now, this analysis leads me to believe 2 things. One, there is a potential for a lot of upsets this year. Not the kind of George Mason or VCU upsets but more upsets based on seeds. Secondly, with there being so many "solid" middle seeded teams I believe this year only 1 number 1 seed will make the Final Four. Remember last year all 1 seeds made it to the Final Four. That isn't happening again.

Obama's Change

So, is this the kind of Change, Obama was talking about? In his first full month of presidency lets look at some records:

Before February 1
Duke 18-2, Marquette 19-2

After February 1
Duke 2-3, Marquette 2-2

Of course following the Hacker-Wisconsin-Communist Theory:

Before February 1
Wisconsin 12-9

After February 1
Wisconsin 4-0

Lunardi Is Cheating Off Of Me

So, I went out and checked out Lunardi's post this morning and surprise, we only have 1 different. I have Kansas State in and Miami out. He has Miami in and Kansas State out. Now, the funny thing is that I posted Miami in and Kansas State out early this morning and then went in and edited the post to reverse them out about 10 minutes later (after all would the committee really take a 4-7 conference Miami over 6-5 conference Kansas State?). If I don't make that change we match up on all 65. Now, here's what I think happened. I posted my picks, Lunardi has an auto-alert on my blog. He copies my picks and posts them himself. Little does he know I'm on to his tricks and switch the two teams. Do Your Own WORK Lunardi!!!

Monday Morning Bracketology

Official Stats
Conference Tourney Winners = 31
Locks = 22 Great Bets = 8
Last 4 in = 4
Total At Large Bids = 34
Total Teams Invited = 65

Automatic Bids (31)
1 American East - Vermont
2 ACC - North Carolina
3 Atlantic Sun - Jacksonville
4 Atlantic 10 - Dayton
5 Big East - Connecticut
6 Big Sky - Weber State
7 Big South - Radford
8 Big 10 - Michigan State
9 Big 12 - Oklahoma
10 Big West - CSU-Northridge
11 Colonial - VCU
12 C-USA - Memphis
13 Horizon - Butler
14 Ivy League - Cornell
15 MAAC - Siena
16 MAC - Buffalo
17 MEAC - Morgan State
18 Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa
19 Mountain West - Utah
20 NorthEast - Robert Morris
21 Ohio Valley - Morehead State
22 Pac 10 - Washington
23 Patriot - American
24 SEC - LSU
25 Southern - Davidson
26 Southland - Sam Houston State
27 Summit - North Dakota State
28 Sun Belt - Ark-Little Rock
29 SWAC - Alabama State
30 WAC - Utah State
31 West Coast - Gonzaga

Locks (22)
1 Wake Forest 13
2 Tennessee 18
3 Duke 5
4 Florida State 20
5 Louisville 17
6 Clemson 10
7 Marquette 24
8 Pittsburgh 1
9 Syracuse 19
10 Minnesota 36
11 Florida 44
12 Illinois 15
13 Purdue 28
14 Ohio State 26
15 Kansas 11
16 Missouri 14
17 Arizona State 27
18 Villanova 9
19 California 23
20 Xavier 8
21 Boston College 50
22 UCLA 31

Great Bets (8)
1 Kentucky 62
2 Wisconsin 29
3 South Carolina 41
4 West Virginia 16
5 Virgina Tech 48
6 Arizona 42
7 Texas 45
8 BYU 35

Last Four In (4)
1 San Diego State 46
2 UNLV 55
3 Kansas State 76
4 Providence 67

Last Four Out (4)
1 USC 43
2 Creighton 56
3 Miami Fla 47
4 St. Mary's 59

Next Four Out (4)
1 New Mexico 75
2 UAB 40
3 Notre Dame 74
4 Temple 33

Also Considered (17)
1 Georgetown 37
2 Oklahoma State 39
3 Cincinnati 51
4 Michigan 52
5 Texas A&M 53
6 Baylor 54
7 Illinois State 58
8 Maryland 60
9 Niagara 63
10 Rhode Island 64
11 Nebraska 65
12 Tulsa 70
13 Penn State 71
14 St. Joseph's 77
15 Northeastern 78
16 Stanford 86
17 Houston 88

Introductions

Duke 2009, meet your twin, Duke 2008.

A New Sponsor

Congratulations to Rock Star Energy drink which replaces Red Bull as the official brand of March Madness 2009. This years Pucker Bombs will be brought to you by Rock Star to help sustain that edge that everybody needs to party like a Rock Star from tip off to final buzzer.

This Year's Bubble

This year's bubble is already making me sad. There's no Colonial team making a play, no MAC team in the discussion, and more importantly no SWAC team making waves. OK, I made that last one up. But the real story is that 95% of the bubble is made up of the mid-level BCS conferences. I don't know about you but the prospect of the Big 10 getting 6 teams in or the ACC getting 7 isn't all that enticing. Who's interested in that 5-12 matchup when it's West Virginia versus Virginia Tech? Wouldn't a West Virginia versus George Mason be more exciting? Of course this isn't much better than last year when the committee decided matching up Gonzaga at Davidson and Western Kentucky at Drake would be a great idea. There is one positive on this and that's if a lock gets knocked off in their conference tournament the bubble will lose one of the fringe BCS teams. Teams that fit this bill are Gonzaga, Memphis, and Utah.

Thursday's update

Last night saw the end of a few teams' bubble prospects. Northwestern, up by 14 with 4 minutes left pisses it away and losses to Illinois. At 4-7 in the Big Ten they are all but out. UW-Green Bsay, which had to be perfect the resst of the way for any consideration lost at Youngstown State. The automatic bid is the only hope for them now. The same goes for George Mason who lost at Delaware. The Also Considered is shrinking.

On the flip side, Notre Dame crushes Louisville, to at least remain in the bubble discussion. They need a couple more in a row before I'm ready to put them back in. Temple squeks by St. Joseph's on the road to climb into 3rd place in the A10. They have fantastic computer numbers to go with their record. And lastly, Arizona wins a big game to cement their in status by beating USC. They are now 4th in the Pac10.

Here's a link

It seems right on where Lee Melchionni should be....

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/blog/the_dagger/post/Mapping-your-hatred-for-Duke-s-most-hateable;_ylt=AkkNGQpebw21iR72UAe_rz_evbYF?urn=ncaab,140669

UGH.

Other than Vitale comparing (twice) a Duke player (Gerald Henderson first, Nolan Smith later) to Russian Ballet dancer Mikhail Baryshnikov, Brian had the quote of the night. Via text, "Words can't describe."

I found a word that comes close. From Merriam-Webster:

Main Entry: ugh
Pronunciation:
\often read as ˈəg or ˈəḵ or ˈə\
Function: interjection
Date: 1678

—used to indicate the sound of a cough or grunt or to express disgust or horror

The unc starting 5 all end up in double figures. Their lack of depth never came into play. And we saw both Duke teams this year in the same game.

Again.

And yes, there was extensive google use to figure out how to spell Baryshnikov.

2009's Top Seed Most Likely To Lose Early

Time for this year's "Top 10 team who will not make the Elite 8 article". Last year's choice was the Texas Longhorns, which did actually make the Elite 8 which kind of submarines the validity of this article. Anyway, this year's choice is none other then the North Carolina Tar Heels. Now I know this looks like sour grapes and for the most part it is but let's delve deeper into the ESPN crowned champions. First of all last year's undoing was there atrocious defense which eventually unraveled against Kansas. This year's defense is actually worse with their adjusted defense efficiency a couple points lower. No team has ever made the final four with an adjusted defensive efficiency less than 25. UNC is currently 20th. Second the big hoopla around them was their depth. UNC can go 11 deep with 10 McDonald's All Americans. Yeah douche bag Bobby Frasor doesn't make the cut. Since the season open they've lost Tyler Zeller to a broken arm, Marcus Ginyard to a broken foot, and William Graves to too many broken rules. Now, forced to only play 3 reserves, 2 of which are freshman and one being Bobby Frasor it's going to be tough to win those Thursday-Saturday or Friday-Sunday "doubleheaders". Third, their coach is still Roy Williams, who I know won a championship a couple years ago but when faced with opposition usually wilts. I look forward to seeing him in the stands again this year with a Kansas shirt on as they last longer then UNC again. Book the second round loss now, 1 seeded UNC 68, 8 seeded Utah 71.

I'm worried.

Wednesday's game scares me. Is there any way we can suit up JJ? And please, spare me the "he sucks in the NBA" comments. Everyone knows that college is the height of basketball and the NBA is like the WWF, WWE. I've seen the script.

Not even close to college-basketball-related

But still funny. Especially for the gadget geeks. And yes, I include myself in this group. No boobies like Demski's now banned post but your IT department/boss will not like due to the language.

I got 3 "Wrong"

Lunardi had UNLV, Kentucky, and Kansas State in. I had Cincinnati, Wisconsin, and Nebraska. I'm giving myself a pass on Nebraska versus Kansas State because the last thing I did before posting is switch those two. The other two are inexcusable. Who should make the tournament?
Wisconsin, RPI = 28 or Kentucky RPI 74
Cincinnati, RPI = 51, 6-5 in the Big East or UNLV, RPI of 55, 5-4 in the Mountain West

Monday Morning Bracketology

My goal is to get this out there before Lunardi’s noon update so I can really see how I did. This week’s story is how the middle of the BCS’s conferences are really muddling up the waters. Kentucky, losers of 3 straight, Georgetown 4-7 in the Big East, Notre Dame is off the map, Texas 4-4 in the Big 12. All of this movement is slowly starting to open the doors for some mid-majors. Suddenly UWGB and George Mason with top 60 RPIs aren’t that bad off. All UAB needs is a win over Memphis and they’ll have a top 25 RPI and the Missouri Valley might be a two bid league. Geez, I’ve even put Arizona in this week’s bracket. I’ve also started trimming off the also considered list. No more 100+ RPI’s. It’s starting to get interesting boys.

Official Stats
Conference Tourney Winners = 31
Locks = 22 Great Bets = 8
Last 4 in = 4
Total At Large Bids = 34
Total Teams Invited = 65

Automatic Bids (31)
1 American East - Boston
2 ACC - North Carolina
3 Atlantic Sun - East Tennessee State
4 Atlantic 10 - Xavier
5 Big East - Connecticut
6 Big Sky - Weber State
7 Big South - VMI
8 Big 10 - Michigan State
9 Big 12 - Oklahoma
10 Big West - Long Beach State
11 Colonial - Northeastern
12 C-USA - Memphis
13 Horizon - Butler
14 Ivy League - Princeton
15 MAAC - Siena
16 MAC - Buffalo
17 MEAC - Morgan State
18 Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa
19 Mountain West - San Diego State
20 NorthEast - Robert Morris
21 Ohio Valley - Morehead State
22 Pac 10 - UCLA
23 Patriot - American
24 SEC - LSU
25 Southern - Davidson
26 Southland - Sam Houston State
27 Summit - North Dakota State
28 Sun Belt - Western Kentucky
29 SWAC - Alabama State
30 WAC - Utah State
31 West Coast - Gonzaga

Locks (22)
1 Wake Forest 14
2 Tennessee 21
3 Duke 1
4 Florida State 19
5 Louisville 11
6 Clemson 8
7 Marquette 24
8 Pittsburgh 2
9 Syracuse 23
10 Dayton 33
11 Florida 30
12 Illinois 15
13 Purdue 36
14 South Carolina 43
15 Kansas 17
16 Missouri 22
17 Arizona State 39
18 Villanova 12
19 BYU 34
20 Utah 13
21 West Virginia 16
22 Washington 18

Great Bets (8)
1 Minnesota 25
2 Boston College 49
3 Ohio State 20
4 Cincinnati 51
5 Virgina Tech 40
6 USC 42
7 Texas 45
8 California 29

Last Four In (4)
1 Arizona 53
2 Miami Fla 41
3 Nebraska 70
4 Wisconsin 28

Last Four Out (4)
1 Georgetown 37
2 Oklahoma State 31
3 Baylor 54
4 Kentucky 74

Also Considered (30)
1 UAB 32
2 Temple 44
3 Texas A&M 46
4 Michigan 48
5 UNLV 55
6 Miami - Oh 56
7 George Mason 57
8 UW-Green Bay 58
9 St. Mary's 59
10 Creighton 60
11 Northwestern 62
12 Mississippi 63
13 Rhode Island 65
14 Kansas State 70
15 Providence 67
16 Maryland 68
17 Tulsa 69
18 St. Joseph's 72
19 VCU 73
20 New Mexico 75
21 Illinois State 77
22 Notre Dame 78
23 Stanford 82
24 Penn State 84
25 Cleveland State 86
26 UTEP 87
27 Stephen F. Austin 90
28 Houston 91
29 Washington State 96
30 Arkansas 99

Greg Paulus....the legacy grows

No disrespect to Duke....only to Greg Paulus. At what point did he think this was going to turn out good?

Another Sponsor

Unlike the last couple of sponsers today's sponser is a hold over from last year. Thanks to Frito Lay I am proud to announce a 10 year contract with Fiery Hot Cheetos.


Fiery Hot Cheetos - making your 9am trip to the bathroom uncomfortable since 1998.

Duke Won, But

3 players played 40+ minutes this afternoon including 40 by Paulus. Color Me Badd, no wait, color me unimpressed. If Coach K thinks 40 minutes for Paulus and only 7 minutes for Nolan Smith is the answere then we have problems. I'm worried, really worried.

My thoughts.

Didn't see the game but that loss goes straight out to all the people who taunted me Thursday morning.

All Righty

Well, here goes:

1. I didnt see any first half, I was dealing with weiner kids, but saw enough of the second to comment, so lets state the obvious. Marquette played like a horses ass tonite. This was the team that figured they would show up and win. Flat play, lazy rebounding, you name it. They looked like shit.

2. We all knew you werent going 15-0 or whatever in the Big East, but really, South Florida? I know Duke played like ass the other nite as well, but at least they lost to someone respectable. 8-14 South Florida, huh?

3. Wesley Matthews almost came up with the "season ending-season ending" injury (i.e. player and team). I was thinking blown knee when he went down. The good news is that the depth of the MU bench was ready to step in...oh...wait....my pet peeve. Hope he didnt go Olandis Gary and play after tearing something. Yeah, I said Olandis Gary

4. As you all know if you've read some of my other posts, I am not yet sold on Buzz Williams. Here's a nice quote from an earlier game: "With Coach Buzz, we never practice free throws, never,” James said. “He just feels like it’s toughness, it’s all in your head.” Williams said it was like practicing riding a bike. “You step to the line and you make free throws,” Williams said. “Your shot doesn’t change, just like when you’re riding a bike, it doesn’t change no matter how long it’s been since you rode a bike, but your mind needs to be right in order to make free throws.”

All righty. Time for some analymosis of that:

Dominic James 0-2 tonite. 46% this year. 66% previous years. Team Tonite: 10-23. 43%. Game lost by 1. Maybe we should practice FT's.....

5. Why does Dave Cubillan never play? He was always a nice spot player in the past who could hit a few shots. It aint like they couldnt use a few more guys out there.

In spite of all that, in the end, I blame Brian for the stock watch post causing this loss. I think its pretty obvious that was the root cause.

Good Lord.....In the words of Krusty.....

this sums up the Marquette game tonite:

http://www.moviewavs.com/0053665484/WAVS/TV_Shows/Simpsons/whatthe.wav

I will have more to say later. It will include F-bombs.

Douche Bag of The Day

In a repeat of last year ESPN wins this season’s first “Douche Bag of the Day”. Thanks to ESPN trying to sell everybody on ESPNU, ESPN360, and ESPNFullCourt, we are left with less than 20 televised Duke games this year. Now, I know most of you couldn’t care less about how many times Duke is on TV but in addition to less Duke games, there are less games altogether. For instance, Big Monday used to feature a Big East, a Big 12, and a Big West game. This year the Big West has been dropped. Thursday’s used to have 2 games each on ESPN and ESPN2. This year you get 1 on ESPN and then the NBA. Well, ESPN, instead of buying your crappy extra packages to get more games, I’ll just watch more of CBSCS who, by the way, televise most of their games in HD. Plus they have Andy Katz at halftime.

Ugh

Quite possibly the worst game I have ever seen them play. There’s not much I can say at this point and I’m getting afraid that this year is shaping up like last year. Next Wednesday’s game against North Carolina is going to be very telling but don’t think I’m looking past Miami on Saturday. I’ll be curious to see how they look against them, oh wait, they’re not on TV because ESPN is whoring out ESPN360.

Stock Watch

Stock Up
Marquette
9-0 in the Big East. Enough said. Even though they won’t play the tough part of the Big East until later in February 9-0 is impressive by itself. McNeal is looking like a 1st team All-American and Dominic James appears to be playing within his means. Even I’m complimenting him
UWGB
I told anybody who would listen earlier in the season that they would make the tournament by winning their conference tourney and now they’ve knocked off Butler. 10-2 in the Horizon and a half game out. A surprising 14 seed in my book
The Mountain West
A nine team conference with at the moment 3 “ins” and 2 on the bubble. This year’s surprise conference following in footsteps of the Colonial and the Missouri Valley; it’s not unreasonable to see 4 teams make it in. The decline of the SEC might squeeze in another Mountain West team. Utah, BYU, and UNLV look solid while New Mexico and San Diego State still have credentials.


Stock Down
Wisconsin
And on the other side of the state’s basketball teams is Wisconsin. Six straight losses in the Big Ten including one against Northwestern. Dangerously close to falling off the bubble Wisconsin needs a prolonged winning streak to get back in the tourney. Computer numbers are still good but 3-6 in the Big 10 won’t cut it.
Kentucky
Just two weeks ago they were on the stock up report; now on the stock down. Kentucky has lost 3 in a row and fall to 5-3 in the SEC. Computer numbers are awful and the weak SEC won’t help. Might possible on the outside looking in at the moment.
Notre Dame
Losers of 5 straight that 250+ Strength of Schedule is going to kill them. Notre Dame needs to string together a streak of wins that rival Wisconsin’s just to get back to the bubble. Put away that notion of the Big East getting 10 teams, 8 might be more realistic.

Another Sponsor

In a bold move the sponsorship with 5 Hour Energy has ended after 1 year in the Dachel basement. I felt that 5 hours of energy just wasn't enough and this year I'm proud to introduce 6 Hour Power. No more dosing off at 4pm and 9pm. That extra hour of power should get you through the most boring of 1 vs 16 seeded games and provide that extra wake up that we all need around 11am on Friday.

Monday Update

**Two different then Lunardi

Official Stats
Conference Tourney Winners = 31
Locks = 22 Great Bets = 8
Last 4 in = 4
Total At Large Bids = 34
Total Teams Invited = 65

Automatic Bids (31)
1 American East - Vermont
2 ACC - Duke
3 Atlantic Sun - East Tennessee State
4 Atlantic 10 - Xavier
5 Big East - Marquette
6 Big Sky - Weber State
7 Big South - VMI
8 Big 10 - Michigan State
9 Big 12 - Oklahoma
10 Big West - Long Beach State
11 Colonial - Northeastern
12 C-USA - Memphis
13 Horizon - Butler
14 Ivy League - Cornell
15 MAAC - Siena
16 MAC - Buffalo
17 MEAC - Morgan State
18 Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa
19 Mountain West - UNLV
20 NorthEast - Robert Morris
21 Ohio Valley - Morehead State
22 Pac 10 - UCLA
23 Patriot - Holy Cross
24 SEC - LSU
25 Southern - Davidson
26 Southland - Stephen F. Austin
27 Summit - North Dakota State
28 Sun Belt - Arkansas-LR
29 SWAC - Alabama State
30 WAC - Utah State
31 West Coast - Gonzaga

Locks (22)
1 Wake Forest 14
2 Tennessee 19
3 North Carolina 4
4 Florida State 27
5 Louisville 10
6 Clemson 8
7 Connecticut 6
8 Pittsburgh 2
9 Syracuse 24
10 Dayton 32
11 Florida 35
12 Illinois 17
13 Purdue 25
14 Minnesota 22
15 Kansas 23
16 Missouri 28
17 Texas 29
18 Villanova 12
19 BYU 34
20 Utah 15
21 West Virginia 16
22 Washington 21

Great Bets (8)
1 South Carolina 46
2 Boston College 51
3 Ohio State 33
4 St. Mary's 50
5 Baylor 43
6 Kentucky 68
7 Arizona State 45
8 California 41

Last Four In (4)
1 Georgetown 18
2 Illinois State 59
3 Penn State 66
4 Providence 63

Last Four Out (4)
1 Wisconsin 37
2 Oklahoma State 26
3 USC 42
4 Virginia Tech 38

Also Considered (32)
1 San Diego State 53
2 Michigan 54
3 Texas A&M 36
4 Notre Dame 76
5 UAB 44
6 Temple 48
7 Miami - Fla 49
8 Miami - Oh 52
9 Northwestern 56
10 Cincinnati 58
11 George Mason 60
12 VCU 61
13 Arizona 62
14 Rhode Island 64
15 Mississippi 65
16 St. Joseph's 67
17 Stanford 69
18 Evansville 70
19 Tulsa 72
20 Creighton 74
21 Kansas State 78
22 UW-Green Bay 79
23 Maryland 80
24 Nebraska 81
25 New Mexico 83
26 Stephen F. Austin 87
27 Nevada 90
28 Washington State 94
29 Cleveland State 95
30 TCU 104
31 Central Florida 105
32 Arkansas 82