The West: Sweet 16

 1. Gonzaga vs. 4. Arkansas 

Arkansas is what remains of the SEC. The SEC was good but that’s March for you. The Razorbacks had a sneaky good year. They’re 18th in KenPom with a top-15 defense. The offense is ok at 53 but with an effective fg% that’s only 237th, this feels like a rout waiting to happen. Arkansas doesn’t grind you down, they’re 28th in pace. They get to the line a lot but the Zags don’t foul.

After losing their first 3 to open SEC play, they finished league play winning 14 of 16. They got poleaxed by Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament but the Aggies gave the, fits during the regular season. They haven’t played in two games in the big dance but neither has Gonzaga. It’s a big spread in the analytics but a closer game than we might expect won’t shock me. I’m going to say Arkansas hangs around before the Zags pull away late.

Gonzaga 77 Arkansas 68

2. Duke vs. 3. Texas Tech

I’ll admit, after the opening round, I loved the Red Raiders in this potential matchup. Then Sunday happened. The worst thing we can do is be slave to the moments, but Tech’s offensive woes showed up in spades on Sunday. One wonders if it was anyone other than Notre Dame, having played in two games since Wednesday, including double-overtime and then flying half way across the country and the results aren’t different.

On the other side, we have Duke who impressed me with the way they finished on Sunday against a pesky Spartans team. Sparty made a lot of 3’s and they are a good 3-pt shooting team. That is not a Tech strong suit. Tech goes to the paint. For the Duke defensive foibles, they’ve guarded the 2-pt shot pretty good.

What struck me on Sunday was, Duke will have the best player in the game in Paolo Banchero. His vision and awareness is so impressive. Tech will make Duke work on both ends but I’m not sure they can’t handle it. It’s a coin flip game. I’m betting on the best player.

Duke 66 Texas Tech 64