The South: Sweet 16

2. Villanova vs. 11. Michigan

Part of me feels vindicated for Michigan making it this far since I picked them to win it all last fall. I’m not. Tennessee went 2-for-18 from 3 on Saturday. Luck, my friends, is a powerful thing in sports. Tennessee finished the year shooting 36% from 3. If they make their average, they win. Some credit goes to Michigan who switched to a zone late. However, Tennessee had lots of quality looks.

You know who also is good from 3? Villanova. We can probably argue this, but we’re at a point where it’s clear Villanova is the best program in college basketball. I don’t think this team is good enough to win it all, but you’re going to have to beat them. 

The concern here for Villanova is, they have some Wisconsin in them this year. When they lose in this dance, it’ll be an ugly shooting night for them. They’re also as slow as anyone around, though I’m sure they could handle tempo if they need to, but not many teams have sped them up. We should know early if Nova is on the struggle bus scoring. If they are, Michigan can beat them. If not, Michigan is the kind of team Nova chews up and spits out. I think that’s what happens.

Villanova 65 Michigan 59

1. Arizona vs. 5. Houston

This could be the best matchup we see the rest of the tournament. Both squads are national championship good. They have top-20 offenses and defenses in KenPom. Only Gonzaga and UCLA can say the same. Houston has been the more impressive thus far, beating a very good UAB and Illinois. Zona handled Wright State but probably should have lost to TCU. Sometimes, you need that skin-of-the-teeth win.

Houston lost Marcus Sasser in December, a tough blow and Tramon Mark, as well. Kelvin Sampson has done a magnificent job piecing together the minutes since and only have 3 losses since the New Year. They have the nation’s 3rd best effective fg% defense, slightly better than Arizona’s 7th. Arizona is 9th offensively while the Cougars are 31st. Arizona shoots the 3 better but is best inside the arc. Can Houston handle them there?

Couple other things worth noting. Houston is the 3rd best offensive rebounding team. Arizona is an average defensive rebounding team.  Arizona gets to the line a fair amount, Houston fouls a lot. Arizona plays quick, Houston is very slow. I want to pick Houston, but unless they muck it up and slow Arizona down, I just think Arizona is better. This will be a fascinating game contrasting styles.

Arizona 71 Houston 68