Houston is KenPom number 2 and Villanova is KenPom number 11. Houston has a slightly better offense and a better defense. Neither team goes very deep. Houston is an incredible offensive rebounding team, the 3rd best in the nation while Villanova is an average defensive rebounding team. Nova will have to work hard to make sure Houston gets limited second chances.
Houston fouls their opponents a lot and Nova is the best FT shooting team in the nation. Can Nova score enough at the line to make up for a potential deficit on the boards. It could be what decides this game as both teams are very evenly matched. I think it’s a toss-up and can go either way.
Villanova 64 Houston 62
West: 2. Duke vs. 4. Arkansas
I mentioned this in the Gonzaga-Arkansas preview, this Arkansas team is good. Now 28-8, the Razorbacks only have 4 losses in 2022. I’ve seen arguments North Carolina was underseeded, I’d make the case that maybe Arkansas was.
So, all that said, Duke is still a 4-point favorite in KenPom. Unlike Gonzaga, Duke will be able to match the Razorbacks physicality and after beating Michigan State and Texas Tech in hard fought games, I don’t think Arkansas will scare them. Arkansas is still a bad shooting team. I think the only way Arkansas wins is if they turn over Duke like they did Gonzaga. Duke doesn’t turn it over, neither did the Zags heading into Thursday’s game. I don’t think that repeats itself for Arkansas.
Duke 77 Arkansas 71
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