3. Purdue vs. 15. St. Peter’s
Sigh. Everyone loves Cinderella until we get this matchup in the Sweet 16. No offense to St. Peter’s but when you have the 225th KenPom offense, my excitement wanes. Good news? Purdue is 89th on defense. Bad news? Purdue is 2nd in KenPom offense and 4th nationally from 3. St. Peter’s opponents only shoot 30% from 3, so...it won’t matter
Purdue 79 St. Peter’s 60
4. UCLA vs. 8. North Carolina
UCLA is sneaky good. Top-15 KenPom offense and defense means they’re good enough to cut the nets down. The rest of their advanced and regular numbers are all good. As for UNC, they’re up to 20 in KenPom, up 20 spots since they went into Cameron and spoiled K’s farewell. They’re trending? Maybe. The win over Baylor was impressive and they throttled Marquette. Still, we're only 2 weeks out from them losing by 13 to VaTech.
UNC loves to push tempo. UCLA loves the slower pace. UNC is 20th in KenPom offense and are a pretty efficient team. They’re also a good 3-pt shooting team as Baylor found out. Can UNC push the tempo and make some 3’s and force UCLA to score? The Bruins were simply more athletic than St. Mary’s but did give up some open looks that didn’t fall. I think the game is decided by whether UCLA’s defense can make UNC work and take tough shots.
If I’m going by the numbers, UCLA is a pretty comfortable favorite for a 4-seed in the Sweet 16. I think UNC matches them athletically. I think UCLA is the better team and Carolina doesn’t force turnovers, typically. UCLA doesn’t turn it over. With that and UCLA’s tighter defense, I think they prevail.
UCLA 72 North Carolina 68
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