The 1st Bracketology is Here

 
1 seed vs 16 seed
Purdue(B1G) vs NC-Central(MEAC)/Wagner(NEC)
Virginia(ACC) vs NW St(Sland)/SIUE(OVC)
Connecticut vs High Point(Bsouth)
Alabama vs Grambling(SWAC)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Houston(AAC) vs FGCU(Asun)
Tennessee(SEC) vs American(Pat)
Kansas(Big12) vs Montana St(Bsky)
Duke vs Chattanooga(SoCon)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Arizona St vs Milwaukee(Hor)
Texas vs Umass-Lowell(Aeast)
UCLA(Pac12) vs Oral Roberts(Summit)
Gonzaga vs MiddTenn St(CUSA)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Miss St vs Fordham(A10)
Maryland vs Charleston(Col)
Indiana vs UC-Irvine(Bwest)
Kentucky vs Bradley(Mvalley)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Baylor vs St. John's(Beast)
Arkansas vs So Miss(Sbelt)
Illinois vs Yale(Ivy)
West Virginia vs UNLV/Oklahoma
6 seed vs 11 seed
VaTech vs New Mexico/Kansas St
Ohio State vs Sam Houston(WAC)
Memphis vs Kent St(MAC)
Utah St(Mwest) vs Iona(MAAC)
7 seed vs 10 seed
Iowa vs Creighton
Arizona St vs Michigan State
Marquette vs Fla Atlantic
Iowa State vs Boise St
8 seed vs 9 seed
St. Mary's(WCC) vs Auburn
N.Carolina vs Xavier
San Diego St vs Wisconsin
Utah vs Miami
First Four Out
NC State
Rutgers
Penn State
Mississppi
Next Four Out
Texas Tech
TCU
Nevada
Michigan
Also Considered
Marshall
Colorado
LSU
Butler
James Madison
Oklahoma st
UAB
Oregon
North Texas
Mizzouri
Northwestern
Charolotte
UCF
Indiana State
Drake

One Month In

 Just over a month into the season and nothing looks like it did in early December.  Multiple teams have been #1 and expect that to continue.

Gonzaga, North Carolina, UCLA, and Indiana haven't been as good as advertised while the Virginia teams are a combined 18-1.  Uconn is still undefeated and Alabama just beat the last #1 seed, Houston.

In addition we have the Chris Beard situation that just happened.  What will be the fallout on that one.

As for a bracket, I am hopeful to get my first one out this week.  I like to let things settle a little bit before starting my spreadsheet otherwise the swings are too big from week to week.  Hopefully later this week I can find some time to pound one out.

On the naughty list.

ACC Wins the Big Ten Challenge....

 Well, the last ACC-Big Ten Challenge comes to an end with the ACC winning 8-6.  Kind of shocking if you ask me as the ACC has looked lost to start the season.

Louisville is still looking for their first win and my 0-30 prediction may be spot on.  Florida State's only win is against Mercer and North Carolina has lost 3 in a row.  The ACC is down with only 2 teams in the top 20 of the KenPom Rankings.

In other news Texas looks great as does Houston, UConn, and Arizona.  I refuse to acknowledge Virginia even if they are averaging about 75 points a game this year.

Lastly I will leave you with this note.  The Big Ten played two games last week that ended 43-42.  Gross.

It's Official

Louisville is going 0-30 this year.  Texas Tech is good but they should not be almost doubling them up.

Texas Tech 70, Louisville 38....not good.

In other ACC action, Florida State got their first win, barely pulling away from Mercer.

Even North Carolina has struggled in all 4 games.  They are 4-0 but it's an ugly 4-0.

Please don't make this year be a Big 10 year.....

One Week In

 Well, we are one week into the season and I can say I've watched more College Basketball this year already than the past couple years in the entire month of November.  Not having a coaching gig has freed up a bunch of time.

It seems to me there are more upsets this year than most but it could be I'm just paying more attention to the games than usual.  TCU loses at home to Northwestern State, Tennessee loses to Colorado who already lost to Grambling?  Louisville is 0-2 with both losses coming by 1 point apiece (and lets not forget the exhibition loss to Lenoir-Rhyne).

Things seem topsy-turvy at the moment but perhaps it's just week 1 jitters.  Looking forward to Duke-Kansas tonight and to a lesser extent Kentucky-Michigan State before it.

4 months to March....

Final Four

I think this year is wide open as I've got 15 teams on my list of potential Final Four teams.  Normally I always put Duke in the Final Four but with the coahcing change I can't do it this year.  I would not be surprised but I can't pick them today.  That being said, here's my November 4 guesses...

Final Four:

Kentucky vs North Carolina
Houston vs Tennessee

Championship:

Houston over Kentucky

Conference Previews

One week until the season kicks off; here's my predictions for the top 12 conference.  Final Four picks coming later.

Missouri Valley:
Conference Winner – Drake
Overrated – Northern Iowa
Underrated – Belmont (yes they are here now)
 
Conference USA:
Conference Winner – UAB
Overrated – Western Kentucky
Underrated – North Texas
 
West Coast:
Conference Winner – Gonzaga
Overrated – St. Mary’s
Underrated – Santa Clara
 
Mountain West:
Conference Winner – San Diego St
Overrated – New Mexico
Underrated – Wyoming
 
American:
Conference Winner – Houston
Overrated – Memphis
Underrated - Tulane
 
Atlantic 10:
Conference Winner – Dayton
Overrated – VCU
Underrated – St. Louis
 
Pac 12:
Conference Winner –  UCLA
Overrated – USC
Underrated – Stanford
 
Big East:
Conference Winner – Creighton
Overrated – Villanova
Underrated – Connecticut
 
Big 10:
Conference Winner – Indiana
Overrated – Michigan State
Underrated – Michigan
 
ACC:
Conference Winner – North Carolina
Overrated – Virginia
Underrated – Duke
 
SEC:
Conference Winner – Kentucky
Overrated –  Arkansas
Underrated – Tennessee
 
Big 12:
Conference Winner – Texas
Overrated – Kansas

Underrated –  Oklahoma

2022-2023 Preview Coming

 Less Than 2 Weeks Away From the Start of the Season.

Look for an short preview in the next week.  Conference Champions; Final Four, and Championship Pick.

RIP: NCAA

 Died: Thursday, June 30, 2022

Cause of Death: Malpractice, incompetence, largesse, lack of vision and ultimately, greed

In lieu of flowers, enjoy a hike on your cable or streaming bills

The Final

Well, it’s not the matchup certain folks wanted. In some ways, Coach K losing in the national semifinal is poetic as it matches what his nemesis Dean Smith had happen to him in ‘97. There’s a post-mortem to write about Coach K but today isn’t that day. I know this, the sport may march on but it won’t be the same.

As for the national title game, let’s get this out of the way. UNC would be the most unlikely national champ since 2014 UConn. UNC is 16 in KenPom, with the 18th best offense and 39th best defense. UConn was 15 when the season ended in 2014 and 39th on offense and 10th on defense. The numbers are inversed but there is some symmetry. 

While that may be the case, Kansas is better and fits the mold of a national champion. It is a one-game elimination tournament, so anything goes at this moment but it’s the Jayhawks time. It’s unlikely they shoot as well as they did Saturday but Carolina will allow looks similar to Villanova. KU isn’t a great defensive rebounding team and that’s be a place for UNC to steal some possessions.

This is a college basketball junkies final game. Two real blue bloods with a shared rich history. Still, it feels like the big game was Saturday night like it was last year. Will the results be similar? I think so and wonder if UNC can have the same emotional intensity as Saturday. If they do and somehow win this, it’ll be an incredible and unlikely title, regardless of who they are.

Kansas 76 North Carolina 66

The Final Four

 1. Kansas vs. 2. Villanova 

Kansas is the most complete team left. They caught some breaks to get to this point, however. Injuries hampered Creighton, Providence was wildly overseeded and Miami was a 10-seed for a reason. Now they get Villanova who will be without Justin Moore. You take advantage of the breaks you get when you get them.

Villanova is hands down the best program in the nation at the moment. It’s too bad injuries have decimated them again. Pretty much 6-deep before the Moore injury, Jay Wright will have to conjure up some magic from the bench and get more out of his starters. If any team can do it, I’d bet on the Wildcats.

I told Brian this feels like a team that would or could win Bill Self his second title. Out of all the 1-seeds, they were the weakest and had some beat downs this year. Yet, here they are. They take advantage of an undermanned Nova team and get back to the final for the 1st time since 2012.

Kansas 74 Villanova 60

2. Duke vs. 8. North Carolina 

Speaking of lucky, the Tar Heels have caught some breaks themselves. They played the worst of the 9-seeds, a beat up Baylor team and then St. Peter’s. Before the tournament, they lost in the ACC semifinals by 13 to VaTech. There were still a lot more questions than answers two weeks ago.

To their credit, they’ve figured something out and taken full advantage of the opportunity. I’m not going to dive deep into the numbers but the closest comp to this team is 2014 UConn, the biggest outlier in the KenPom era to win a title. 

What that tells me is, it’s more likely midnight is coming soon for UNC. The narrative is, all the pressure is on Duke. Maybe it is, but there’s definitely some pressure on this UNC team to be the ones to end the Coach K era.

I think back to Georgetown in 2013 ending Syracuse regular season run in the Big East with a dominant performance over the Orange, only to lose to them a week later in the Big East semifinals. You think you ended an era, but there’s always a chance for the rematch.

Duke isn’t going to lose again to UNC. They have the better team and have run the tougher gauntlet. The stars are shining and the energy is as high as it’s been this time of year since 2015. Duke wins and I think they do so comfortably.

Duke 72 UNC 57

Elite 8: Sunday

 Midwest: 1. Kansas vs. 10. Miami

This feels like a Kansas team that makes a Final 4 without the super heralded players. As good as Miami looked opening weekend, they looked more ragged last night. Iowa State will do that to you.

Kansas had to work to beat a feisty Providence team but made all the plays down the stretch. They’ll also have the overwhelming support of the crowd. Both teams shoot about the same but Kansas is the far better defensive team. They’ll frustrate the Canes enough to win late.

Kansas 76 Miami 69

East: 8. UNC vs. 15. St. Peter’s 

The Peacocks run ends here. Carolina is playing fast and loose and with a lot of confidence. Unlike big favorites Kentucky and Purdue, Carolina has some of the underdog swagger St. Peter’s does. I’m aware of the massive difference, but what I mean is, Carolina wasn’t suppose to be in this spot either. They’re quicker and more athletic across the board than Purdue.

UNC 81 St. Peter’s 63

Elite 8: Saturday

South: 2. Villanova vs 5. Houston

Houston is KenPom number 2 and Villanova is KenPom number 11. Houston has a slightly better offense and a better defense. Neither team goes very deep. Houston is an incredible offensive rebounding team, the 3rd best in the nation while Villanova is an average defensive rebounding team. Nova will have to work hard to make sure Houston gets limited second chances.

Houston fouls their opponents a lot and Nova is the best FT shooting team in the nation. Can Nova score enough at the line to make up for a potential deficit on the boards. It could be what decides this game as both teams are very evenly matched. I think it’s a toss-up and can go either way.

Villanova 64 Houston 62

West: 2. Duke vs. 4. Arkansas 

I mentioned this in the Gonzaga-Arkansas preview, this Arkansas team is good. Now 28-8, the Razorbacks only have 4 losses in 2022. I’ve seen arguments North Carolina was underseeded, I’d make the case that maybe Arkansas was.

So, all that said, Duke is still a 4-point favorite in KenPom. Unlike Gonzaga, Duke will be able to match the Razorbacks physicality and after beating Michigan State and Texas Tech in hard fought games, I don’t think Arkansas will scare them. Arkansas is still a bad shooting team. I think the only way Arkansas wins is if they turn over Duke like they did Gonzaga. Duke doesn’t turn it over, neither did the Zags heading into Thursday’s game. I don’t think that repeats itself for Arkansas.

Duke 77 Arkansas 71

The Midwest: Sweet 16

1. Kansas vs. 4. Providence

This has to be the most nondescript Kansas team I can recall in sometime. That’s not meant to be a criticism by any means, I just find it interesting. The general consensus was, the Jayhawks were the weakest 1-seed. Not to be outdone, Providence was easily the most picked against 4-seed in round 1.

Kansas has a borderline National Championship profile. 6th on offense and 27th on defense in KenPom, about the only thing they do “poorly” is, defensive rebounding which is a fraction below average. Simply put, this is a solid team across the board.

Providence has been hated by the computers all year. They’re 31st in KenPom offense and 56th in KenPom defense. A weak effective fg% hurts the offense, though it’s quite good defensively. When they have lost this year, it has been ugly at times. It’s been a great year for the Friars but I think it comes crashing down tomorrow night.

Kansas 80 Providence 68

10. Miami vs. 11. Iowa State

I want to be surprised the weakest region has this as a Sweet 16 matchup, but I’m not. This is KenPom 38 vs. KenPom 45. Miami definitely looked better of the two, with a good win over USC and a throttling of 2-seed Auburn. Iowa State beat a defeated LSU team and an overseeded Wisconsin team minus their PG for 25 minutes.

Miami has the KenPom 18th best offense. Iowa State has the KenPom 5th best defense. Miami has the KenPom 124th defense. Iowa State’s KenPom offense is 160. Both play at about the same pace. That being the case, give me the team more likely to make some baskets.

Miami 61 Iowa State 59

The East: Sweet 16

 3. Purdue vs. 15. St. Peter’s

Sigh. Everyone loves Cinderella until we get this matchup in the Sweet 16. No offense to St. Peter’s but when you have the 225th KenPom offense, my excitement wanes. Good news? Purdue is 89th on defense. Bad news? Purdue is 2nd in KenPom offense and 4th nationally from 3. St. Peter’s opponents only shoot 30% from 3, so...it won’t matter

Purdue 79 St. Peter’s 60

4. UCLA vs. 8. North Carolina

UCLA is sneaky good. Top-15 KenPom offense and defense means they’re good enough to cut the nets down. The rest of their advanced and regular numbers are all good. As for UNC, they’re up to 20 in KenPom, up 20 spots since they went into Cameron and spoiled K’s farewell. They’re trending? Maybe. The win over Baylor was impressive and they throttled Marquette. Still, we're only 2 weeks out from them  losing by 13 to VaTech.

UNC loves to push tempo. UCLA loves the slower pace. UNC is 20th in KenPom offense and are a pretty efficient team.  They’re also a good 3-pt shooting team as Baylor found out. Can UNC push the tempo and  make some 3’s and force UCLA to score? The Bruins were simply more athletic than St. Mary’s but did give up some open looks that didn’t fall. I think the game is decided by whether UCLA’s defense can make UNC work and take tough shots.

If I’m going by the numbers, UCLA is a pretty comfortable favorite for a 4-seed in the Sweet 16. I think UNC matches them athletically. I think UCLA is the better team and Carolina doesn’t force turnovers, typically. UCLA doesn’t turn it over. With that and UCLA’s tighter defense, I think they prevail.

UCLA 72 North Carolina 68

The South: Sweet 16

2. Villanova vs. 11. Michigan

Part of me feels vindicated for Michigan making it this far since I picked them to win it all last fall. I’m not. Tennessee went 2-for-18 from 3 on Saturday. Luck, my friends, is a powerful thing in sports. Tennessee finished the year shooting 36% from 3. If they make their average, they win. Some credit goes to Michigan who switched to a zone late. However, Tennessee had lots of quality looks.

You know who also is good from 3? Villanova. We can probably argue this, but we’re at a point where it’s clear Villanova is the best program in college basketball. I don’t think this team is good enough to win it all, but you’re going to have to beat them. 

The concern here for Villanova is, they have some Wisconsin in them this year. When they lose in this dance, it’ll be an ugly shooting night for them. They’re also as slow as anyone around, though I’m sure they could handle tempo if they need to, but not many teams have sped them up. We should know early if Nova is on the struggle bus scoring. If they are, Michigan can beat them. If not, Michigan is the kind of team Nova chews up and spits out. I think that’s what happens.

Villanova 65 Michigan 59

1. Arizona vs. 5. Houston

This could be the best matchup we see the rest of the tournament. Both squads are national championship good. They have top-20 offenses and defenses in KenPom. Only Gonzaga and UCLA can say the same. Houston has been the more impressive thus far, beating a very good UAB and Illinois. Zona handled Wright State but probably should have lost to TCU. Sometimes, you need that skin-of-the-teeth win.

Houston lost Marcus Sasser in December, a tough blow and Tramon Mark, as well. Kelvin Sampson has done a magnificent job piecing together the minutes since and only have 3 losses since the New Year. They have the nation’s 3rd best effective fg% defense, slightly better than Arizona’s 7th. Arizona is 9th offensively while the Cougars are 31st. Arizona shoots the 3 better but is best inside the arc. Can Houston handle them there?

Couple other things worth noting. Houston is the 3rd best offensive rebounding team. Arizona is an average defensive rebounding team.  Arizona gets to the line a fair amount, Houston fouls a lot. Arizona plays quick, Houston is very slow. I want to pick Houston, but unless they muck it up and slow Arizona down, I just think Arizona is better. This will be a fascinating game contrasting styles.

Arizona 71 Houston 68

The West: Sweet 16

 1. Gonzaga vs. 4. Arkansas 

Arkansas is what remains of the SEC. The SEC was good but that’s March for you. The Razorbacks had a sneaky good year. They’re 18th in KenPom with a top-15 defense. The offense is ok at 53 but with an effective fg% that’s only 237th, this feels like a rout waiting to happen. Arkansas doesn’t grind you down, they’re 28th in pace. They get to the line a lot but the Zags don’t foul.

After losing their first 3 to open SEC play, they finished league play winning 14 of 16. They got poleaxed by Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament but the Aggies gave the, fits during the regular season. They haven’t played in two games in the big dance but neither has Gonzaga. It’s a big spread in the analytics but a closer game than we might expect won’t shock me. I’m going to say Arkansas hangs around before the Zags pull away late.

Gonzaga 77 Arkansas 68

2. Duke vs. 3. Texas Tech

I’ll admit, after the opening round, I loved the Red Raiders in this potential matchup. Then Sunday happened. The worst thing we can do is be slave to the moments, but Tech’s offensive woes showed up in spades on Sunday. One wonders if it was anyone other than Notre Dame, having played in two games since Wednesday, including double-overtime and then flying half way across the country and the results aren’t different.

On the other side, we have Duke who impressed me with the way they finished on Sunday against a pesky Spartans team. Sparty made a lot of 3’s and they are a good 3-pt shooting team. That is not a Tech strong suit. Tech goes to the paint. For the Duke defensive foibles, they’ve guarded the 2-pt shot pretty good.

What struck me on Sunday was, Duke will have the best player in the game in Paolo Banchero. His vision and awareness is so impressive. Tech will make Duke work on both ends but I’m not sure they can’t handle it. It’s a coin flip game. I’m betting on the best player.

Duke 66 Texas Tech 64

Re-Seed: The Midwest

1. Kansas

2. Auburn

3. Iowa (5), KP 13

4. LSU (6), KP 19

5. San Diego State (8), KP 22

6. UW-Madison (3), KP 34

7. USC

8. Iowa State (11), KP 48

9. Providence (4), KP 49

10. Creighton (9), KP 53

This region is a mess. UW-Madison and Providence are the two luckiest teams by KenPom in the field and they’re in this region. LSU fired their coach. Iowa has a weak defense. 

I can make a case for Colgate and have made a case for South Dakota State to win the openers, despite any geographic favoritism. 

That said, this is probably the best region for the Big 10 to make some hay. UW-Madison should be in a good spot to make the second weekend and Iowa has a good path, too.

I can’t see Kansas losing before the Sweet 16 where Iowa might have a shooters chance. Auburn, though sloppy at the finish, will be prohibitive favorites to make the Elite 8. I think they have the most talent and best roster and survive the region of average 

Re-Seed: The West

1. Gonzaga

2. Texas Tech (3), KenPom 9

3. Duke (2), KP 12

4. UConn (5), KP 18

5. Arkansas (4), KP 20

6. Alabama 

7. Boise State (8), KP 26

8. Memphis (9), KP 28

9. Michigan State (7), KP 40

10. Davidson 

No quibbles here. New Mexico State and especially Vermont are more than capable of pulling upsets.

If you’re a sentimentalist, you pick Duke but this is Gonzaga’s region to win. The Duke defense has gotten far worse the last month of the season while Tech’s offense leaves a lot to be desired.

Feels like a potential chaos region 

Re-Seed: South

 1. Arizona 

2. Houston (5), KP 4

3. Tennessee 

4. Villanova (2), KP //11

5. Illinois (4), KP 17

6. Loyola (10), KP 24

7. Colorado State (6), KP 31

8. Ohio State (7), KP 32

9. Michigan (11), KP 33

10. Seton Hall (8), KP 35

11. TCU (9), KP 38

12. UAB, KP 46

Houston didn’t do enough to warrant a higher seed. A win over UW-Madison might have helped. That said, they’re in a good spot. Illinois will have a battle with Chattanooga. UAB is capable of beating Houston, but I like Houston to get to play Arizona in the Sweet 16.

There are 3 Big Ten teams in this region. All 3 could and might lose in the 1st round. Michigan fans are bullish about their chances against Colorado State but they must have been watching another team.

Arizona is the pick but Tennessee, Villanova & Houston are all capable.

Re-Seed: East

I told Brian last night the Midwest might be the worst region I’ve ever seen cobbled together. I added the KenPom totals of the top 10 seeds in each region and the Midwest total was 310. The next worst was the West at 220. The East, which we’re starting with, was best at 185. It’s quite the discrepancy. Anyway, let’s jump in.

Seeding By KenPom

1. Kentucky (2), KP 3

2. Baylor (1), KP 5

3. UCLA (4), KP 8

4. Purdue (3). KP 14

5. Texas (6), KP 15

6. St. Mary’s (5), KP 16

7. San Francisco (10), KP 21

8. Virginia Tech (11), KP 23

9. Murray State (7), KP 27

10. UNC (8), KP 29

11. Indiana (Play-in 12), KP 36

12. Marquette (9), KP 47

The seeding in the East is largely fine. The biggest gripe for me is having San Francisco and Murray State meet in the opening round. Either one of them is capable of the Sweet 16. 

Baylor will be a popular pick to be upset. I suppose it’s possible but I see them in the Sweet 16 against UCLA.

UCLA and Baylor profile as national champs while Kentucky isn’t far behind. One of those 3 will make the Final 4.

Final Bracket

1 seed vs 16 seed
Gonzaga (WCC) vs Wright St (Hor)/TexasA&M-CC(Sland)
Arizona (P12) vs Bryant (NEC)/TexasSo(SWAC)
Kansas (B12) vs Norfolk St (MEAC)
Baylor vs Jax St (Asun)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Auburn vs Longwood(Bsouth)
Purdue (B1G) vs Georgia St (Sbelt)
Kentucky vs Colgate (Pat)
Tennessee (SEC) vs Montana St(Bsky)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Villanova (Beast) vs Delaware (CAA)
Wisconsin vs CS-Fullerton(Bwest)
Duke vs St. Peters (MAAC)
Texas Tech vs Yale (Ivy)
4 seed vs 13 seed
UCLA vs Akron (MAC)
Providence vs Richmond (A10)
Arkansas vs New Mexico St (WAC)
Illinois vs Vermont (Aeast)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Iowa vs Chattanooga (SoCon)
Houston (AAC) vs S.Dakota St (Summit)
LSU vs UAB (Cusa)
Connecticut vs Michigan/Notre Dame
6 seed vs 11 seed
St. Mary's vs Texas A&M/Indiana
Alabama vs Virginia Tech (ACC)
Texas vs Wyoming
Boise St(Mwest) vs Miami
7 seed vs 10 seed
Colorado St vs Davidson
USC vs San Francisco
Michigan St vs North Carolina
Creighton vs Loyola (Mvalley)
8 seed vs 9 seed
San Diego St vs Memphis
Seton Hall vs Iowa State
Ohio State vs Marquette
TCU vs Murray State (OVC)
First Four Out
BYU
Xavier
SMU
Rutgers
Next Four Out
Dayton
Wake Forest
Oklahoma
VCU
Also Considered
Oregon
Florida
North Texas

Richmond in, BYU? Out?

 

1 seed vs 16 seed

Gonzaga (WCC) vs Wright St (Hor)/TexasA&M-CC(Sland)

Arizona (P12) vs Bryant (NEC)/TexasSo(SWAC)

Kansas (B12) vs Norfolk St (MEAC)

Baylor vs Jax St (Asun)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Auburn vs Longwood(Bsouth)

Purdue (B1G) vs Georgia St (Sbelt)

Kentucky vs Colgate (Pat)

Villanova (Beast) vs Montana St(Bsky)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Wisconsin vs Delaware (CAA)

Duke vs CS-Fullerton(Bwest)

Texas Tech vs St. Peters (MAAC)

Tennessee (SEC) vs Yale (Ivy)

4 seed vs 13 seed

UCLA vs Akron (MAC)

Providence vs New Mexico St (WAC)

Arkansas vs Vermont (Aeast)

Illinois vs Chattanooga (SoCon)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Iowa vs S.Dakota St (Summit)

Houston (AAC) vs UAB (Cusa)

LSU vs Richmond (A10)

Connecticut vs Michigan/Notre Dame

6 seed vs 11 seed

USC vs Texas A&M/Indiana

St. Mary's vs Virginia Tech (ACC)

Alabama vs Miami

Texas vs Wyoming

7 seed vs 10 seed

Colorado St vs Davidson

Boise St(Mwest) vs San Francisco

Michigan St vs North Carolina

San Diego St vs Loyola (Mvalley)

8 seed vs 9 seed

Creighton vs Memphis

Seton Hall vs Iowa State

Ohio State vs Marquette

TCU vs Murray State (OVC)

First Four Out

Oregon

SMU

Michigan

Indiana

Next Four Out

VCU

Virginia Tech

St. Bonaventure

Rutgers

Also Considered

UAB

Oklahoma

Dayton

Texas A&M

Colorado

Yale in, Princeton Out

 Bubble is small.  I think Texas A&M is locked in regardless of today's game.  If Richmond wins a steals a bid that may push out BYU, Notre Dame, or Michigan.  Xavier appear dead in the water to me

Current Bracket

 1 seed vs 16 seed
Gonzaga (WCC) vs Wright St (Hor)/TexasA&M-CC(Sland)
Arizona (P12) vs Bryant (NEC)/TexasSo(SWAC)
Kansas (B12) vs Norfolk St (MEAC)
Baylor vs Jax St (Asun)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Auburn vs Longwood(Bsouth)
Purdue (B1G) vs Georgia St (Sbelt)
Kentucky vs Colgate (Pat)
Villanova (Beast) vs Montana St(Bsky)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Wisconsin vs Delaware (CAA)
Duke vs CS-Fullerton(Bwest)
Texas Tech vs St. Peters (MAAC)
Tennessee (SEC) vs Princeton (Ivy)
4 seed vs 13 seed
UCLA vs Akron (MAC)
Providence vs New Mexico St (WAC)
Arkansas vs Vermont (Aeast)
Illinois vs Chattanooga (SoCon)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Iowa vs S.Dakota St (Summit)
Houston (AAC) vs UAB (Cusa)
LSU vs Michigan/BYU
Connecticut vs Indiana/Notre Dame
6 seed vs 11 seed
USC vs Texas A&M
St. Mary's vs Virginia Tech (ACC)
Alabama vs Miami
Texas vs Wyoming
7 seed vs 10 seed
Colorado St vs Davidson (A10)
Boise St(Mwest) vs San Francisco
Michigan St vs North Carolina
San Diego St vs Loyola (Mvalley)
8 seed vs 9 seed
Creighton vs Memphis
Seton Hall vs Marquette
Ohio State vs Iowa State
TCU vs Murray State (OVC)
First Four Out
Xavier
SMU
Rutgers
Dayton
Next Four Out
Wake Forest
Oklahoma
VCU
Oregon
Also Considered
Florida
North Texas

Blind Resume Part 2

 Two of these teams are in my bracket and two are out.  Which do you choose?

Current Bracket....

 1 seed vs 16 seed
Gonzaga (WCC) vs Wright St (Hor)/SELA (Sland)
Arizona (P12) vs Bryant (NEC)/AlcornSt(SWAC)
Kansas (B12) vs Norfolk St (MEAC)
Purdue (B1G) vs Longwood(Bsouth)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Auburn vs Georgia St (Sbelt)
Duke (ACC) vs Colgate (Pat)
Kentucky vs Montana St(Bsky)
Baylor vs Jax St (Asun)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Wisconsin vs Delaware (CAA)
Texas Tech vs Long Beach St (Bwest)
Villanova (Beast) vs St. Peters (MAAC)
Tennessee vs Princeton (Ivy)
4 seed vs 13 seed
UCLA vs Kent State (MAC)
Providence vs New Mexico St (WAC)
Arkansas vs Vermont (Aeast)
Illinois vs Chattanooga (SoCon)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Iowa vs S.Dakota St (Summit)
Houston (AAC) vs UAB (Cusa)
LSU vs Michigan/Indiana
USC vs BYU/SMU
6 seed vs 11 seed
Connecticut vs Xavier
St. Mary's vs Miami
Alabama vs Wyoming
Texas vs Davidson (A10)
7 seed vs 10 seed
Colorado St vs Notre Dame
Boise St(Mwest) vs San Francisco
Michigan St vs North Carolina
San Diego St vs Loyola (Mvalley)
8 seed vs 9 seed
Iowa State vs Memphis
Seton Hall vs Marquette
Ohio State vs Creighton
TCU vs Murray State (OVC)
First Four Out
Virginia Tech
Texas A&M
Rutgers
Dayton
Next Four Out
Wake Forest
Oklahoma
VCU
Oregon
Also Considered
Florida
North Texas

Bubble Action Yesterday

 I'm still sorting through a new bracket as bubble teams played yesterday.

Losers:

North Texas lost to Louisiana Tech and my first glance is they don't have enough for an at-large bid.  1-1 in Q1 but 5-3 in Q2.  NCSoS is solid but I don't think it's enough and their spot will go to the winner of UAB vs Louisiana Tech

Rutgers lost to Iowa and although they have 6 Q1 wins their NCSOS is right around 300 and the computer numbers are in the 70's.  I think they will be out when my bracket is updated.

VCU was out before yesterday and lost so their chance is 0%

Oklahoma was so close to another upset over Texas Tech but fell sort.  15 losses is too many for them to get a bid

North Carolina, Wyoming, and Miami are not locks after losing but probably did enough in the season to be safe

Winners:

Indiana got another upset and will probably swap out with Rutgers.  Need to avoid a blow out today to hang on.

SMU inched closer to a bid.  The win yesterday doesn't really help them but by not losing they didn't get hurt.  I still think they need to win today at a minimum.

Virginia Tech upset North Carolina and they are right on the edge of being in or out.  I need to take a closer look at them vs Xavier, BYU, and Michigan

Texas A&M beat Auburn and I would think they are still out but very close.  Need to compare them to the 3 listed above.

Memphis, Davidson and San Diego State won as well and I think they are all locked up.  Davidson still has 2 potential game so they might not be 100% at this point

Early Bids Today

 America East

Vermont vs UMBC

My Pick - Vermont

MEAC

Norfolk St vs Coppin St

My Pick - Norfolk St

MAAC

Monmouth vs St. Peter's

My Pick - St. Peter's

Bubble Update

 Indiana knocks off Illinois and at this point I have to believe they are in.  4-7 in Q1 and 4-4 in Q2 to go with a top 50 NCSoS.  They will leap Rutgers and SMU should they lose today and might flip with Michigan regardless.

Also of note Texas A&M is currently up 17 over Auburn.  This will drop Auburn from the 1 seed line and move A&M from Also Considered up to at least First Four out.  I need to look at their profile more but 2-9 in Q1 games (soon to be 3-9) isn't great.  NCSoS around 250 can't help either but they are getting hot at the right time.

Davidson is putting away Fordham and might be a lock too at this point.

Bracketology

 1 seed vs 16 seed
Gonzaga (WCC) vs Wright St (Hor)/Nicolls St(Sland)
Arizona (P12) vs Bryant (NEC)/AlcornSt(SWAC)
Auburn (SEC) vs Norfolk St (MEAC)
Kansas (B12) vs Longwood(Bsouth)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Duke (ACC) vs Georgia St (Sbelt)
Kentucky vs Colgate (Pat)
Baylor vs Montana St(Bsky)
Purdue vs Jax St (Asun)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Wisconsin(B1G) vs Delaware (CAA)
Texas Tech vs Long Beach St (Bwest)
Villanova vs St. Peters (MAAC)
Tennessee vs Princeton (Ivy)
4 seed vs 13 seed
UCLA vs Toledo (MAC)
Providence (Beast) vs New Mexico St (WAC)
Connecticut vs Vermont (Aeast)
Illinois vs Chattanooga (SoCon)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Arkansas vs S.Dakota St (Summit)
LSU vs North Texas (Cusa)
USC vs SMU/Michigan
Houston (AAC) vs BYU/Rutgers
6 seed vs 11 seed
St. Mary's vs Xavier
Alabama vs Loyola (Mvalley)
Texas vs Memphis
Colorado St vs Davidson (A10)
7 seed vs 10 seed
Iowa vs Notre Dame
Boise St(Mwest) vs San Francisco
TCU vs North Carolina
Michigan St vs Miami
8 seed vs 9 seed
Iowa State vs Wyoming
Seton Hall vs Marquette
Ohio State vs Creighton
San Diego St vs Murray State (OVC)
First Four Out
VCU
Indiana
Virginia Tech
Oklahoma
Next Four Out
Wake Forest
UAB
Dayton
Oregon
Also Considered
Florida
Texas A&M

Friday Morning Update

 Lots of stuff to hit so lets get right into it. 

Some Bubble teams took some bad losses; those include:

Florida - got to be out 100% now

Michigan - need to compare to the teams surging

Oregon - NIT Baby!

Virginia - nobody winning that game would make me happy but somebody lost

Some Bubble teams had solid wins

North Carolina - questionable bubble is now a lock

Indiana - eyeing up that Florida spot right now; maybe even Michigans

Virginia Tech - close but need to win today again

Oklahoma - I picked them to get the auto-bid.  They still need it

Texas A&M - stay in the conversation

UAB - See Texas A&M

VCU, SMU, and Rutgers stay where they were since they had byes.  Today is the make or break for them.

Teams that officially entered lock status:

North Carolina

Miami

Wyoming

Creighton 

San Diego St - the Mountain West is going to be a 4 bid league

Teams that took a loss that will hurt their seeding:

Baylor - the 1 seed is out of the question now

Texas - blew a big lead to TCU

Iowa State - is starting to play offense like Virginia

Ohio State - got to beat Penn State

A new bracket will be out around lunch time...

Bubble Game – Night Addition

 
The bubble might of popped for a couple teams today.  Florida took a bad loss and Michigan blew a 17 point second half lead.  They could survive this but they are a play in candidate.
Duke rallied after figuring out what every coach knows about beating a zone in the second half.  That big painted area in the middle is there for a reason.
Texas blew a lead against TCU and I can’t wait to pick against the middle team in the Big 12.
 
Tonight these are the games we are watching on the bubble:
 
Oregon vs Colorado – I think Erick picked Colorado to steal a bid but Oregon needs this to stay alive.  This win and one more at least
 
Oklahoma vs Baylor – I picked Oklahoma to win the conference tournament so I completely expect them to win by 20.  Or lose by 20….
 
Virginia Tech vs Notre Dame – Tech could grab the spots vacated by Florida and or Xavier.  Need 1 win for sure, 2 to be safe
 
Virginia vs North Carolina – can they both please lose?  UNC is in because other teams around them are worse and lost already
 
Wyoming vs UNLV – I have Wyoming safe but Lunardi does not and he’s part of the ESPN machine who thinks Wyoming is a sub 100 team according to their BPI.

Bubble Game – Morning Addition

 
Indiana vs Michigan – Indiana is out with a loss.  Michigan is one of my last 4 in but have mobility
 
Florida vs Texas A&M – I am one of the only people with Florida in and not one of the first 4 out.  They do need this game at the very least. Texas A&M needs a long run of wins.
 
Miami vs BC – Miami is probably safe but this wouldn’t look good
 
Other game of note:
Marquette vs Creighton
Texas vs TCU
Boise State vs Nevada

Last Conference Tournaments

 
Conference Tournaments 3/10
 
Conference Tournament – MAC
 
#1 Seed – Toledo
Seeds 1 through 3 are pretty close.  Going to call for the slight upset.
My pick – Ohio
 
Conference Tournament – American
 
#1 Seed – Houston
Houston has played really well after losing their top 2 players in December but Memphis has found their grove with a better rotation of players.  Penny drops the ball in the NCAA tournament but not here.
My pick – Memphis
 
Conference Tournaments 3/12
 
Conference Tournament – Ivy
 
#1 Seed – Princeton
Only the top 4 get into the conference tournament which I don’t mind.  Makes it easier for the 1 seed
My pick – Princeton

Bubble Game and Bids

 

Colgate holds on to grab the Patriot bid while Iona gets upset in the MAAC conference tournament.  All those guys pining for Pitino to make a comeback can slow their role now.  Wasn’t a fan at Kentucky nor Louisville.  Not fan now.

 

In Bubble land Wake Forest took a loss and I think they are dead in the water now.  Xavier isn’t looking so hot and will probably have to sweat out bid thieves and watch some Big Ten games and hope Rutgers losses.

 

Seton Hall is a lock now, if they weren’t before while Oregon, Virginia, and Virginia Tech all hang on to slim chances.

Bracket Buster: South Dakota State

This won’t be a wild pick next week. The Jackrabbits will be a wildly popular pick to pull an upset next week. Going 30-4 and 18-0 in conference will do that. Coach Eric Henderson and SDSU are just a flat-out good team.

69th in KenPom, it’s all about the offense. They’re 12th overall. Don’t ask about the defense. What drives the offense is the shooting. Effective fg% is what matters most and they’re 1st in the nation. They shoot 44% from 3, best in the nation and 56% from 2, 11th best. On top of that, they’re 23rd best at offensive turnover % and 54th in FTA/FGA. 

Baylor Scheierman shoots 47% from 3 and Zeke Mayo 42% from 3. Charlie Easley doesn’t play as much but shoots 50% from 3. Douglas Wilson is the dude in the middle, shooting 57% and gets to the line a lot.

The defense leaves a lot to be desired but that offense is something else. They’ll be a fun team to watch 

Non-Conference Scheduling

 

One thing to watch out as we close on Selection Sunday is teams that need to be concerned due to bad Non-Conference Scheduling.  Yes, I know you have no control if the team you scheduled was good last year and now sucks but I’ve found that the biggest mistake I’ve made when seeding teams at the end of the year is not putting more weight on NCSOS.  These teams (current seeds listed) need to be concerned.

 

USC (6) – 307

Iowa State (7) – 231

Iowa (7) – 265

TCU (8) – 273

Florida (12) – 221

Rutgers (12) – 294

SMU (FF) – 289

Wake Forest (FF) – 338

Indiana (NF) – 315

 

And a special shout out to a team on the 2 seed line, Purdue who checks in with a 219 NCSOS.

Bubble Games 3/9

Boston College vs Wake Forest -  Wake is the biggest bubble team not living in the Big 10.  I think they need this win and tomorrow to be safe. 1-4 in Quad 1 games is not good.  (neither is their NCSOS of 338 but we will get to that later)

2.      Butler vs Xavier – Xavier seems safe but they’ve been bad the past 8-9 games.  5-9 in Q1 games should be enough but this would be a bad loss

3.      Clemson vs Virginia Tech – Tech is going to need 3 wins so this game just keeps them in the conversation.  Computers love them but 1-5 in Q1 and 4-5 in Q2 is gross

4.      Oregon St vs Oregon – The Ducks will need 2 at least.  13 losses and computer numbers in 70’s don’t look good

Wednesday Bracket

 1 seed vs 16 seed
Gonzaga (WCC) vs Wright St (Hor)/Nicolls St(Sland)
Arizona (P12) vs Bryant (NEC)/AlcornSt(SWAC)
Auburn (SEC) vs Norfolk St (MEAC)
Baylor vs Longwood(Bsouth)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Duke (ACC) vs Georgia St (Sbelt)
Kansas (B12) vs Colgate (Pat)
Kentucky vs Montana St(Bsky)
Purdue vs Jax St (Asun)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Wisconsin(B1G) vs Delaware (CAA)
Texas Tech vs Long Beach St (Bwest)
Villanova vs Princeton (Ivy)
Tennessee vs Toledo (MAC)
4 seed vs 13 seed
UCLA vs New Mexico St (WAC)
Providence (Beast) vs Vermont (Aeast)
Connecticut vs Chattanooga (SoCon)
Illinois vs Iona (MAAC)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Alabama vs S.Dakota St (Summit)
Arkansas vs North Texas (Cusa)
LSU vs Florida/Rutgers
Houston (AAC) vs BYU/Michigan
6 seed vs 11 seed
Texas vs Xavier
USC vs Loyola (Mvalley)
St. Mary's vs Memphis
Colorado St vs North Carolina
7 seed vs 10 seed
Iowa State vs Miami
Seton Hall vs San Francisco
Iowa vs Davidson (A10)
Ohio State vs Notre Dame
8 seed vs 9 seed
Boise St(Mwest) vs Wyoming
Marquette vs Creighton
TCU vs San Diego St
Michigan St vs Murray State (OVC)
First Four Out
VCU
SMU
Wake Forest
Virginia Tech
Next Four Out
Indiana
Oregon
UAB
Oklahoma
Also Considered
Dayton
Virginia
Texas A&M

Conference Tournaments 3/9

 
Conference Tournament – MEAC
 
#1 Seed – #1 Norfolk State
The 1 seeds like they are heads and shoulders above everybody else.
My pick – Norfolk State
 
Conference Tournament – Big 12
 
#1 Seed –  Kansas
This looks like a 2 horse race with Baylor and Kansas but there are a couple teams capable of making a run.  I’m looking at Portor Moser at Oklahoma to put it together and steal a bid.
My pick – Oklahoma
 
Conference Tournament – Mountain West
 
#1 Seed – Boise State
Another wide open race that goes 5-6 teams deep.  This should be a 4 bid conference as long as the top 4 don’t lose in the first round. Boise and Colorado St are locked in.  San Diego St and Wyoming need 1 win.  I’m giving the Cowboys the auto-bid.
My pick – Wyoming
 
Conference Tournament – SWAC
 
#1 Seed – Alcorn St
The top 3 seeds all have a path.  Texas Southern usually looks good but I’m riding Southern
My pick – Southern
 
Conference Tournament – Big East
 
#1 Seed – Providence
I like Providence and think they can make noise in the tournament but I’m picking Nova or UConn to take the conference.
My pick – Villanove
 
Conference Tournament – Big Sky
 
#1 Seed – Montana State
Another wide open low major.  The top 3 seeds have equal chance in my mind.  Weber State has better history
My pick – Weber State
 
Conference Tournament – Pac 12
 
#1 Seed – Arizona
I really want to get freaky and pick a team like Arizona State or Colorado but I will be lame and assume UCLA is rounding into form
My pick – UCLA
 
Conference Tournament – Southland
 
#1 Seed – Nicholls State
The conference gives double byes and Nicholls State metrics are way better than everybody else
My pick – Nicholls State
 
Conference Tournament – Atlantic 10
 
#1 Seed – Davidson
Davidson *should* be safe for a bid so I’m going to pick a bid thief here.  Came down to VCU or St. Bonaventure in my mind
My pick – VCU
 
Conference Tournament – SEC
 
#1 Seed – Auburn
We all know who runs this conference.
My pick – Kentucky
 
Conference Tournament – Big 14
 
#1 Seed – Illinois
I just told everybody I could really see Wisconsin going far on the back of Johnny Davis and then he goes out and gets hurt and they lose to Nebraska.  I’m sticking with them because I’m very stubborn
My pick – Wisconsin

 

One Bid Tonight

 Patriot

#1 Colgate vs #2 Navy 

Should be a close one with Colgate a 15 seed and Navy probably a 16

My Pick –Colgate

Bids Going Out Tonight

 
Atlantic Sun 
#2E Jacksonville vs #2W Bellermine 
My Pick – Jacksonville.  Bellermine is ineligible so the bid is to Jacksonville already 
 
Northeast 
#2 Wagner vs #1 Bryant 
My Pick – Wagner (they are probably the favorite even as the 2 seed) 
 
Colonial 
#2 UNC-Wilmington vs #5 Delaware
Upsets galore here.  Will Brent Blizzard be around to help UNCW?
My Pick –  UNC-Wilmington
 
Horizon 
#3 Northern Kentucky vs #4 Wright State
Entering 16 seed territory here.  Winnner gets a most likely play in 16 seed game.
My Pick –  Northern Kentucky
 
Summit 
#1 South Dakota St vs #2 North Dakota St
South Dakota State almost has a profile of an at large….almost.
My Pick –  #1 South Dakota St
 
West Coast 
#1 Gonzaga vs #2 St. Mary’s
My Pick –  Gonzaga….big

 

Conference Previews 3-8

 
Conference Tournament – MAAC
 
#1 Seed – Iona
The sexy pick because of Rick Pitino. I ooze sexy
My pick – Iona
                                     
Conference Tournament – ACC
 
#1 Seed – Duke
A potential second round game between Miami and Wake Forest looms large on the bubble.  I think Duke stomps here, possibly beating UNC in the championship
My pick – Duke
 
Conference Tournament – Conference USA
 
#1 Seed – North Texas
North Texas has the potential to get an at-large if the lose in the championship.  I like UAB to outlast them in the final
My pick – UAB
 
Conference Tournament – WAC
 
#1 Seed – New Mexico St
Another tournament that gets it right giving the top 2 seeds a bunch of byes.  New Mexico St only has to win two games for a bid
My pick – New Mexico St
 
Conference Tournament – Big West
 
#1 Seed – Long Beach State
The Big West sports 6 teams between 125-175 in the NET.  This bracket is wide open.
My pick – Irvine

Conference Tournament Previews Wednesday Night 3-9

A-10

The A-10 is going to D.C. for its conference tournament. The league has 6 teams in the KenPom top-100 but only 2 in the top 50. Regular season champ Davidson checks in at 45 and runner-up Dayton is 46. Brian had Davidson at 10 in his last mock, VCU first 4 out and Dayton staring forlornly from the also considered bin. It’s possibly a 1-bid league

St. Louis and VCU are 61 and 63 with pre-season darling St, Bonaventure at 86. Davidson might get an at-large? No bad losses other than Rhode Island (128 in KenPom) and a win over Alabama could get them in but they’ll sweat if they don’t win the conference tournament.

It’s a potential bid thief league and I’ll say Dayton wins a berth and Davidson sweats with VCU.

Big XII

No big preview. Tourney is in Kansas City. Oklahoma is bubbly but needs help. Iowa State and TCU seem safe but I’d try and win a game.

Most importantly, how will Baylor’s short rotation hold up? That’s what I’ll be watching. The pick is Texas Tech 

Big East

No big preview. Tourney is at MSG. Xavier would be advised to beat Butler or have a long weekend. The pick is UConn

Big Sky

The Big Sky descends upon Boise for Boise Madness. Montana State won the league and is 142nd in KenPom. Southern Utah finished 2nd and is 162nd in KenPom and Weber State finished 3rd and is 179th. No other team is top-200.

The pick is Montana State and they get a 15-seed and make a 2-seed sweat.

Big 14

The Big 14 travels to Indy. Michigan and Indiana battle in the 8-9. I think Michigan is safe at the moment but a loss here will make them have a long couple of days. Indiana has to have it.

There’s no national title contender here except Illinois and they’re the pick to click.

MEAC

The MEAC will be playing in Norfolk,VA. Norfolk State is 165 in KenPom and the only top-200 team. They should win here. Just about any other winner is a certainty to be in the play-in game.

Mountain West

The Mountain West is traveling to Vegas and will be a  ist see Tournament. They have 7 top-100 KenPom teams and 4 tournament teams. This is also a definitive bid thief league.

Fresno State, UNLV and Utah State are outside looking in at the moment but all are capable of pulling the upset and winning the league title. Utah State is 53 in KenPom. Even Nevada at 12-17 and 116 in KenPom could be worth a nickel.

I’ll pick Utah State to steal a bid in what ought to be a super fun week.

 Pac-12 

The Pac-12 will also be in Vegas. Remember when Vegas was off-limits because of gambling fears? Wild. Anyway, the story here is Oregon who has lost 3 straight and is out. Also, Washington State is 55 in KenPom. They’ve been as high as 32 but a brutal February was killer. They both need to win to get in.

We’re in bid thief territory here but I like Arizona to take care of business and solidify that 1-seed.

SEC

The SEC is going to Tampa for some ungodly reason. Florida opens against Texas A&M and needs to win or probably miss out. A&M needs a lot of help, too. It’s basically the biggest game in the tournament from a bid standpoint. A&M won’t be in with a win but they can at-least get considered.

The pick here is Kentucky to remind the league who the big dog is. A&M seems to be the only legit bid thief.

SOUTHLAND

The Southland plays their league tournament in Katy, TX. The Southland isn’t very good with no top-200 KenPom teams. Regular season champ Nicholls State is 201. They beat UNI and had a shot to win in Madison and they’re the pick. This is 16-seed territory with Nicholls State being a possible thorn as such.

SWAC

The SWAC is going to Birmingham which is somehow worse than Tampa. Anyway, 16-seee land. Texas Southern is the winner or maybe not. 

Monday Bracketology

 1 seed vs 16 seed
Gonzaga (WCC) vs Cleve St(Hor)/Nicolls St(Sland)
Arizona (P12) vs Bryant (NEC)/AlcornSt(SWAC)
Auburn (SEC) vs Norfolk St (MEAC)
Baylor vs Georgia St (Sbelt)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Duke (ACC) vs Longwood(Bsouth)
Kansas (B12) vs Colgate (Pat)
Kentucky vs Montana St(Bsky)
Purdue vs Jacksonville (Asun)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Wisconsin(B1G) vs Princeton (Ivy)
Texas Tech vs Long Beach St (Bwest)
Villanova vs Toledo (MAC)
Tennessee vs New Mexico St (WAC)
4 seed vs 13 seed
UCLA vs Towson (CAA)
Providence (Beast) vs Vermont (Aeast)
Connecticut vs Chattanooga (SoCon)
Illinois vs Iona (MAAC)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Alabama vs S.Dakota St (Summit)
Arkansas vs North Texas (Cusa)
LSU vs Florida/Rutgers
Houston (AAC) vs BYU/Michigan
6 seed vs 11 seed
Texas vs Xavier
USC vs Loyola (Mvalley)
St. Mary's vs Memphis
Colorado St vs North Carolina
7 seed vs 10 seed
Iowa State vs Miami
Seton Hall vs San Francisco
TCU vs Davidson (A10)
Ohio State vs Notre Dame
8 seed vs 9 seed
Boise St(Mwest) vs Wyoming
Marquette vs Creighton
Murray State (OVC) vs San Diego St
Michigan St vs Iowa
First Four Out
VCU
SMU
Wake Forest
Virginia Tech
Next Four Out
Indiana
Oregon
UAB
Oklahoma
Also Considered
Dayton

Today's Bids

SoCon
#1 Chattanooga vs #2 Furman
My Pick – Furman with the small upset
 
Sun Belt
#3 Georgia St vs #8 Louisiana
My Pick – Georgia State ends Louisiana’s miracle run
 
There are no bubble games today as I believe the WCC’s top 3 will all gets bids regardless of outcome tonight.
 
A new Bracket will be out later today. 

Conference Tournament Previews, Tuesday Night

 Lots of them, let’s go…

ACC

The ACC is in Brooklyn to appease a bad Syracuse team. The ACC has 3 teams in the KenPom top-30. Two of them are 28 and 30. The league is mediocre this year. However, they have a legit title contender in Duke.

Brian has 4 teams in at the moment. UNC is probably a lock now and I feel pretty good about Wake. VaTech is outside looking in.

Weirdly, this could very well be a bid-thief league. I don’t think we should be shocked if it happened, looking at Virginia or Miami or god forbid, Syracuse. I’ll stick with chalk and pick Duke.

Big West

The Big West tournament comes to us from Henderson, NV. Long Beach State is your regular season champ. It appears to be a league that had some covid issues. UC-Irvine and UCSB are 120 and 130in KenPom and both finished 8-5 in the league.

LBSU is 155th in KenPom and split with UCI and UCSB during the season. Cal-State Fullerton, Hawaii and UC-Davis are top-200 KenPom teams and all capable of winning this league.

There isn’t an overwhelming favorite here. Honestly, this is a league tourney that might be a lot of fun to follow. I’ll take Irvine.

Conference USA

Our departing league plays their tournament in Frisco, TX. The league is split into two divisions. North Texas won the west going 16-2 and is 49thin KenPom. UAB finished just behind them at 53.

Middle Tennessee won the East and are 101 in KenPom. Louisiana Tech is 103  and Western Kentucky is 112. Florida Atlantic is 125.

The league would probably prefer UNT or UAB come out since one or the other seems more likely to steal a win or two in the dance. I’ll pick UAB to be that team. Brian has UNT as an 11-seed but they’ll almost certainly need the auto-bid.

MAAC

The MAAC is playing their conference tourney in Atlantic City. The story all year has been Iona and Rick Pitino. The Gaels won the league and are 90th in KenPom. They will be a popular upset pick in a few weeks should they win the league.

St. Peter’s finished 2nd and is and 128th in KenPom. Monmouth and Marist are also top-200 KenPom teams.

Iona is the pick and they should win the tournament. Lots of pressure on them to do so, however.

WAC

The WAC is one of a few leagues traveling to Vegas to play its tournament. The top of this league is a bit weird as Seattle and Stephen F. Austin tied for the regular season title but Seattle is the 1-seed by virtue of their win over the Lumberjacks. New Mexico State is a 1/2 game back and at 87, the best of the teams in the league. A terrible loss at Chicago State cost them the league title.

Grand Canyon is 91st in KenPom but finished 4th. SFA and Seattle are 109 and 131 respectively in KenPom. Utah Valley and Abilene Christian are 114 and 137 respectively. It’s a bunched top half of the league and predicting a winner with any conviction isn’t going to happen here. 

New Mexico State was the best team all year but a loss at Chicago State gives pause. The pick is SFA

Ohio Valley Bid

 Ohio Valley Conference Final

Murray St vs Morehead St

Pick - Murray State

ESPN Hates Mid Majors

While compiling my numbers I look at the following metrics:

NET - Universal Ranking

BPI - ESPN's Power Ranking

SOR - Strength of Record

SoS - Strength of Schedule

NCSoS - Non-Conference Strength of Schedule

Quad 1 - Quad 4 Record - Records vs Good teams vs Bad teams

And then I will sprinkle in the good old eye test, **adjust for anti-mid major bias**and compare to other bracketologiest.  Palm and Lunardi are both worse than me but I still review their ranking.  Check out http://bracketproject.blogspot.com/ for comparison.

Anyway, back to the rankings.  Usually there's a red flag threshold for each of the metrics.  NCSOS is huge and if you are below 200 you should be concerned if you are on the bubble.  I see Vitale and Bilas complaining about a team every year that doesn't get in and I can guarantee you their NCSOS is terrible.  See Orange, Syracuse.

For BPI, NET, and SOR I usually flag below 60 as a issue.  Of the team I (and most) have in that are above 60 in  ESPN's BPI ranking are the following:

Colorado St - 80
Creighton - 81
Wyoming - 103!
BYU - 85

Of the teams out above 60:

Michigan - 31
Virginia Tech -23 (in a terrible ACC)
Indiana - 38

Their explantion is the following "The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is".

By this definition Wyoming wouldn't even make the NIT.  It makes no sense.

As for my statement of **adjust for anti-mid major bias** .  What I mean by that is if given a chance the committee with move teams around a seed or so to match up low seeded Big 5 teams vs high seeded Mid-Majors .  I.e. don't expect 5 seeded Houston to get 12 seeded Loyola or 8 seeded Murray State to get 9 seeded Davidson.  That would guarantee a mid-major to the next round.  Houston is getting North Carolina or Michigan and Murray State will end up with an underseeded 9 like Iowa State or Iowa.

Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed

Gonzaga (WCC) vs Cleve St(Hor)/Nicolls St(Sland)

Arizona (P12) vs Bryant (NEC)/AlcornSt(SWAC)

Auburn (SEC) vs Norfolk St (MEAC)

Baylor vs Colgate (Pat)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Wisconsin(B1G) vs Longwood(Bsouth)

Duke (ACC) vs Long Beach St (Bwest)

Kansas (B12) vs Montana St(Bsky)

Villanova vs Jacksonville St (Asun)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Providence (Beast) vs Princeton (Ivy)

Texas Tech vs Texas St (Sbelt)

Kentucky vs Toledo (MAC)

Purdue vs N. Iowa(Mvalley)

4 seed vs 13 seed

UCLA vs New Mexico St (WAC)

Tennessee vs Towson (CAA)

Connecticut vs Vermont (Aeast)

Illinois vs Chattanooga (SoCon)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Alabama vs Iona (MAAC)

Arkansas vs S.Dakota St (Summit)

Ohio State vs BYU/Loyola

Houston (AAC) vs Florida/Xavier

6 seed vs 11 seed

Texas vs Wake Forest

USC vs Memphis

St. Mary's vs North Texas (Cusa)

Colorado St vs North Carolina

7 seed vs 10 seed

Iowa State vs Miami

Michigan St vs San Francisco

LSU vs Davidson (A10)

Seton Hall vs Notre Dame

8 seed vs 9 seed

Boise St(Mwest) vs Wyoming

Marquette vs Creighton

Murray State (OVC) vs San Diego St

Iowa vs TCU

First Four Out

VCU

Oregon

Michigan

SMU

Next Four Out

Rutgers

Virginia Tech

Indiana

UAB

Also Considered

Oklahoma

Dayton

Conference Tournaments 3-4 and 3-5

 Conference Tournament – SoCon

#1 Seed – Chattanooga

Chattanooga has looked like the easy pick all year but Furman has played a tough schedule and sits in the top 100 of the NET.  Picking the slight upset

My pick – Furman

Conference Tournament – Colonial

#1 Seed – Towson

Towson is a top 70 NET team but shared the title with UNC-Wilmington.  Hofstra is the dark horse here as the 2 seed.  Close championship game goes to Towson

My pick – Towson

Conference Tournament – Summit

#1 Seed – South Dakota State

South Dakota State actually has a snowball's chance at an at-large.  They won't get it but they are close.  Just win the auto-bid and upset Ohio State in the tournament.

My pick – South Dakota State

Conference Tournament – America East

#1 Seed – Vermont

God Bless this conference for giving us UMBC over Virginia a couple years ago.  Could it happen again?  No, Virginia is an NIT team.  Vermont runs through this conference and somewhere TJ Sorrentine smiles

My pick – Vermont

American East

The American East begins its conference tournament on Sunday.  All games are played on campus. 

Vermont won the league easily, going 17-1. Vermont is 69th in KenPom and is a squad begging to upset someone. They’re the best defensive rebounding team in America and have the 8th best effective offensive fg%. Their only loss was at Hartford by 1-point in overtime.

No other team is in the KenPom top 200. A loss by Vermont would be quite bad for the league. That said, they’re the pick

Conference Tournament Previews, Saturday Night Starters

Hmm, the WCC starts tonight. I missed that one. It’s in Vegas and I’d pick BYU but it’s in Vegas, so I’ll say Gonzaga.

SUMMIT LEAGUE

The Summit tournament comes to us from Sioux Falls. South Dakota State won the league by going 18-0. Seems good. They have a win over Washington State on the ledger. They’re 69th in KenPom. They have the nations number one offensive effective fg% and the best 3-point shooting team in the nation. If they get a 12-seed, they should be one of the most popular upset picks and with good reason. I love this team.

North Dakota State finished 2nd and is 166th in KenPom. Oral Bob finished 3rd and is 150th in KenPom. No other team is in the top-200, though UMKC finished 200 while finishing tied-3.

Give us SDSU or we riot and that’s the pick.

COLONIAL

The Colonial plays their tournament in Washington D.C. Towson and UNC-Wilmington tied for the league title as the 2 split the regular season.

Towson is 65th in KenPom while UNCW is 188. Towson has won 7 straight, 6 of them by double digits. Hofstra is 120th in KenPom and finished 3rd in the league. The winner should be one of these 3 and I like Towson to cruise.

Thursday Lunch Notes

Wednesday Bubble Action:

Rutgers gets the win over Indiana pushing the Hoosiers to the brink.  Rutger is probably not in...yet

Miami, Wake Forsest, and Creighton all got wins to stay in the bracket while Xavier lost at St. John's.  Not a terrible loss but I have them as one of my last 4 in.  Getting close.

Inside the bracket a lot of teams took losses that may cost a seed line.  Most pronounces are Marquette, Wyoming, Alabama, and Notre Dame.  Arkansas keeps winning but their NCSOS of 282 is gross

Thursday Bubble Action:

1. Cincinnati at SMU - SMU needs to string together a couple wins and get an upset in the conference tournament

2. Iowa at Michigan - Michigan is getting close.  Numbers are solid.  Record is not

3. Memphis at USF - PRO: Memphis is a tournament team the past 7 weeks.  CON: Memphis was not a tournament team the prior 7 weeks.

4. Oregon at Washington - Oregon has been a first 4 team out since July....

5. Fresno St at San Diego St - San Diego State looks safe to me but stupid Lunardi has them as 12 seed.  Blind Squirrel....something something.

Conference Tournaments - 3/3

 Conference Tournament – Missouri Valley
#1 Seed – Northern Iowa
Loyola has been the darling for years but this conference is tighter than you think.  5 team are in the top 100 of the NET pushing Loyola to the #4 seed.  I think they lose to Drake in the final and sweat out selection Sunday.
My pick – Drake

Conference Tournament – SunBelt
#1 Seed – Texas State
Texas St lost some games to Covid so the 12-3 conference record is bit off.  This conference is ripe for an upset.
My pick – Georgia State

Conference Tournament – West Coast
#1 Seed – Gonzaga
The lost to St. Mary's over the weekend wakes up the giant.
My pick – Gonzaga

SoCon Tournament

The Southern Conference begins their tournament this Friday from Asheville, NC. Condolences to UNC-Ashvellie who lost to Charleston Southern this afternoon ending their season. Anyway…

The SoCon is currently 12th in the conference standings for KenPom. That’s ahead of Conference USA, RIP. UT-Chattanooga won the league regular season title, 14-4. They’re 76th in KenPom and coached by former Bo Ryan assistant, Lamont Paris. They’re 289th in tempo and while they hang their hat on defense, the offense is good enough.

The best KenPom team is Furman at 73. Despite this, the Mocs swept the Paladins during the regular season. Furman sort of scuffled down the stretch, finishing 3-4.

Wofford finished in a tie for 3rd with Sanford but is 106th in KenPom versus 187th. The Flying Terriers went 0-4 against the Mocs and Paladins.

It’s hard to pick against Chattanooga because they’re 4-0 against their top 2 likely biggest challenges. Any of the 3 are capable of winning a game in a few weeks, however. The pick here is Furman because why not 

Bubble Games Tonight

 1.  Rutgers vs Indiana - neither are in so they both need this win bad.
2.  Miami vs Boston College - Miami has a KP and NET in the 60's.  That's not great
3.  NC State vs Wake Forest - Better numbers than Miami but only 1 Quad 1 win.  This won't help but could hurt.
4.  Xavier vs St. John's - Xavier might not be as safe as people think.  5-8 in Q1 is solid but the resume doesn't pop
5.  Connecticut vs Creighton - The Jays KP and NET are in the 60's as well but other numbers are OK.  Q1 chance here

Other games of note
George Mason vs Davidson
Notre Dame vs Florida State
UAB vs Southern Miss
Wyoming vs UNLV

Blind Resume Test Results

 Team A - Loyola
Team B - North Carolina
Team C - Michigan
Team D - Iowa
Team E - VCU

Looks like everybody liked Iowa and nobody was on North Carolina.....

Just a note that this was done before Palm's last update.  He now has VCU and Michigan in and North Carolina out.

Blind Resume Test

 Let's do a blind resume test.  Here are 5 teams; 3 of which I currently have in the bracket right now.  Lunardi has 3 in, Palm has 2 in.  There's quite a mic here with a range of safely in and not in the first four out.  Which 3 are you putting in?  Rank them in order of preference (NoS is Non Conference Strength of Schedule)

Conference Tournaments 3-2

 Conference Tournament – Ohio Valley

 

#1 Seed – Murray State

The OVC does it correctly by giving the top 2 seeds’ double byes.  No reason that it isn’t Murray St vs Belmont in the final.  Would love to see the OVC be a 2 bid league.

My pick – Murray State

 

Conference Tournament – Big South

 

#1 Seed – Longwood

Longwood is the 1 seed but Winthrop has a NET of 143 to Longwood’s 142.  On top of it those two and Gardner Webb all sport KenPom’s Rankings between 156 and 163.  Should be interesting.

My pick – Winthrop

Fun Belt

The Sun Belt also tips off tourney play this Wednesday from Pensacola, Florida.

Texas State won its first ever regular season title going 12-3. They missed 3 games due to COVID. Appalachian State went 12-6 and finished 2nd. Both are 129th and 152nd in KenPom respectively. Neither has a top-100 win.

South Alabama who went 9-7, has the best KenPom number at 126. The league has 5 other teams between 146-190 in KenPom. There is some parity in its mediocrity.

It appears Coastal Carolina is the only Sun Belt member to notch a top-100 win and that was over a bad South Carolina team. The Sun Belt hasn’t been all that good this year and it would be a bit of a surprise to see them pull an upset in a few weeks. Think this one is wide open

The Pick: South Alabama

Arch Madness

The Valley kicks off Thursday night from St. Louis. Northern Iowa somehow won the league this year. They went 14-4 during the regular season, so kudos to them. They’re 90th in KenPom.

Loyola, Missouri State and Drake all went 13-5. Loyola is 29th in KenPom, Missouri State is 61st and Drake is 88th. The Fighting Wardles of Bradley went 11-7 and are 92nd in KenPom.

Brian has Loyola in the play-in 12-seed game, so, it behooves them to at least make the tourney final. I don’t think they have much room for error. This is a bid thieve league this year. Loyola has been somewhat inconsistent the last month or so. This is a league to pay attention to.

The Pick: Missouri State steals a bid and makes Loyola sweat selection Sunday