Villanova 79 Xavier 54
West Virginia 89 Baylor 68
Florida State 88 Duke 72
All three games don't define a season for any of the teams involved but point to problems for the losers.
Xavier was a preseason darling as a sleeper Final 4 team and they're talented enough to do that but something isn't right in Cincinnati. They got Myles Davis back last night but it'll probably take time to work him into the rotation. They're 29th and 32nd in AdjustedO & AdjustedD . Those are fine numbers but they look more like a team with a Sweet 16 ceiling at this point and even that seems unlikely.
Baylor's reign at number one in the polls was never going to last long. The Big XII is too deep and they were underdogs in Vegas and on KenPom but the 21-point beat down stings. Baylor is one of the slowest teams in the nation and turn the ball over a lot. I like them but I don't consider them a legit Final Four contender.
As for Duke, the problems on defense that have plagued them in recent years continue. You can blame youth but when you go the one-and-done route, that's the risk you take. The Blue Devils are 28th in defensive efficiency but that's largely built on an unsustainable 3-pt defense. Watch for the defensive efficiency to drop and for good shooting teams to be a problem for them down the road. There's reason for concern.
Of the winners, FSU deserves a closer look. 9th in the humanoid polls, the Noles are 16th in KenPom with efficiency numbers in the top 20's. The profile isn't of a title contender but they have a projected lottery pick in Jonathan Isaac who looks the real thing. It's a solid team but I'd pump the brakes a bit.
No comments:
Post a Comment