Mid-Major Malaise

One thing we won't have this year on selection Sunday is outrage over mid-majors being left out. This is arguably the worst year I can recall when it comes to mid-majors.

The largest culprits are the A-10 and Mountain West and we'll get to them shortly.  

If we look at the top 50 of KenPom (I'm dismissing RPI in this piece but understand it's still part of the tourney selection process), we have 6 teams from outside the so-called power leagues. That includes two teams from the WCC, Gonzaga & St. Mary's at 3 & 19. At this point, the Zags are a seperate entity from these other teams. 

The Valley has Wichita State at 26 and Illinois State at 35. ISU just beat the Shockers. This will be interesting to see what happens. Will the Valley get two teams? Wichita probably doesn't want to lose at home to ISU and probably can't afford many stumbles. The Shockers are 16-4 with their best win over 62 Oklahoma. That win will look better in March as I expect the Sooners to continue improving. ISU has the win over Wichita in its back pocket but it's next best win is over 114 New Mexico.

UNC-Wilmington is 44th and will be a pain in someone's rear end in March as long as they don't get upset in the Colonial. Their resume is hot trash. 

Middle Tennessee is 52nd and were darlings of the early season but recently lost to a middling Georgia State team. They have two SEC scalps but they don't want to get upset in Conference USA either.

The Southern has Chattanooga at 59 and East Tennessee State at 60. One will dance, the other will NIT. That is potentially one of the best conference title games.

The leagues that have been major disappointments are the Mountain West and A-10. We've chronicled the fall of the Mountain West. The best team is San Diego State at 66! That's awful and behind the SoCon. Worst yet, the Aztwcs are 11-7 and need to win the league. On their heels at 70 is Nevada who is probably the best team in the league. I wouldn't sleep on Nevada in March but the MWC is a one-bid league and if isn't Nevada, it won't be pretty.

The A-10 has also been pretty mediocre. It's not Mountain West bad but there are only 6 teams in the KenPom top 100. Dayton is 37, Rhode Island is 48 and VCU is 55. Davidson, St. Bonaventure & La Salle are 80, 83 & 84. Is this a two-bid league? Looks like it to me.

What we're seeing this year is Jim Delany's wet dream, the collapse of the non-power leagues. That might be incentive to cheer wildly for Gonzaga. It could be cyclical but I have my doubts.