Saturday, January 25, 2014

Reclamation of Rick Barnes

In January of 2010, Rick Barnes and Texas rose to the top spot in the nation. Ever since then, Texas basketball has been part disappointment, part wreck, part underachieving. Heading into this season, expectations matched recent results, very little. After all, Texas lost Myck Kabongo to the NBA and two other leading scorers, Julian Lewis and Sheldon McClellan transfered. Picked to finish 8th, it seemed an almost certainty Barnes would be out as his biggest supporter, AD DeLoss Dodds had retired.

Well, after a win at Baylor today, the Longhorns 4th straight over a ranked foe, next weeks mathcup in Austin against Kansas suddenly looks like one of the best and biggest games of the weekend. Sitting at 16-4, Texas appears headed back to the NCAA tournament.

They don't have a great non-conference win. They only beat a bad Temple team by one and their win over North Carolina is difficult to asses. That's not their fault. Temple and UNC are typically good non-conference games. They have a loss to BYU on a neutral court. BYU will probably be a bubble team. The Longhorns other losses are to Michigan State, OU and Oklahoma State, all tourney bound teams.

Texas plays an up-tempo style, 31st quickest in the nation. Their adjusted O is 71st while their d is 26th. Texas doesn't shoot very well. Their effective fg% is 48.7%, 203rd. This is largely due to their poor 3pt shooting. They do a fairly decent job protecting the ball. The Longhorns turnover % is 17.5%. What helps them offensively is they will get second chance points. They have an offensive rebounding % of 36.7%, 40th in the land. 56.5% of their scoring comes from the paint. That's well above the national average. They get to the line at a fialry decent clip but shoot a brutal 65.3%. That'll be a flaw later in the season for them.

Texas plays solid defense. Teams have an effective fg% of 46% against the Longhorns. They don't force many turnovers but they clean the glass, keeping 2nd chance points at a minimum. Teams only get 28.2% of their misses. They are foul prone. Their FTA/FGA rate is 42.0%, 208th in the land. That'll be worth watching given their struggles at the line in close games.

Texas has a nice interior combo in JR. F Jonathan Holmes and SOPH C. Cameron Ridley. Holmes has an effective fg% of 58.2% to go with 12.8ppg and 7.4rpg. Holmes can make a 3 for Texas from time-to-time as well. Holmes does pick up fouls, though he's cleaned that up during this stretch. He has 3 dq's, 2 of which were in losses. Ridley gets 11.3 & 7.5 to go with 2.4 blocks per game. Ridley only shoots 61% from the line and gets there at a good clip.

The backcourt was a concern heading into the season. But Texas has gooten good play from SOPH Javan Felix and FR Isaiah Taylor. Felix was the de facto PG last year but Taylor has more or less taken that roll this year. Both average double figures. Felix, at this moment, is more secure with the ball. Taylor is 70% at the line. Not terrible, not great for the freshmen. The backcourt is backed up by Damarcus Croaker a frosh and soph Demarcus Holland. Croaker's minutes have been declining and Holland has seen much more court time recently.

The Big XII is a meat grinder this year, arguably the deepest conference in the nation. They'll be plenty of land mines ahead for Texas but they've positioned themselves nicely heading into the stretch. Given what was expected heading into the season and what they lost, Rick Barnes has probably earned Big XII COY. Are they a threat in March? A Sweet 16 seems the ceiling at best but getting back is a good step for the future of Rick Barnes and the program. To this point, it's been a very good season for the Longhorns.

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