A mere 10 days ago, Wisconsin stood at 16-0, off to the best start in school history and national pundits proclaiming this Bo's best team since he arrived in Madison. Fast forward to today and we see a team with flaws being exposed and questions arise whether or not this is Bo's worst defensive team since he arrived. Watching Jeff Potrykus melt down on twitter has been particularly fun. Let's take a look at what the real story is.
After last night's loss in Minnesota, Wisconsin's defefnse fell to 55th in KenPom's adjusted D. 10 days ago, it was top 10. That shows a large amount of volatitility but it's probably about where it belongs. We'll look at what I mean in a bit but let's see what the numbers tell us.
The effective fg% last year was 7th in the land. This year, it's 78th. 43% vs. 46.7%, still well above the national average. The Badgers still don't foul teams. They lead the nation in FTA/FGA, better than last. They also still don't force turnovers. Last year's turnover % was 18%, 27th. This year is worse, 16%, 315th. Bo Ryan can live with that as long as they aren't giving free baskets by fouling which they certainly don't. They're also 56nd in defensive rebounding %. Last year, they were 28th. Not a huge swing. Teams are shooting the 3 better, making 32.6% versus 28.9% last. Teams are shooting 46% from 2 this year, versus 42.8% last. Perhaps most telling, last years block % was 10.8%. This year? 8.2%. 227th in the nation. That isn't a surprise giving the loss of Jared Bergrenn and perhaps the crux of the problem.
In their 3 losses, Indiana scored 52 in the paint, Michigan 26 & Minnesota 48. While Frank Kaminsky has been a revelation on offense, he simply isn't a solid post defender. In those losses, Indiana shot 51.6%, Michigan 54.7% and Minnesota, 58.9% despite losing their best player a minute into the game. The Inidana game is the concerning one. Indiana is 156th in KenPom on adjusted O. They still pounded the Badgers inside. One game later, Northwestern shut the Hooisers down. Is the defense beginning to get exposed? I think so.
If we look at their non-conference schedule, we see solid wins but we also see a lot of opponents that aren't exactly offensive juggernaughts. The following shows the points allowed and KP offensive ratings:
- St. John's; 75, 128th
- Florida; 53, 43rd
- UWGB; 66, 30th
- SLU; 57, 185th
- West Virginia; 63, 175th
- Virginia; 38, 66th
- Marquette; 64, 126th
- Northwestern; 49, 323rd
- Illinois; 70, 175th
They played Florida in a what we would conceive as a prototypical Badgers game, 60 possessions and the Gators were missing Dorian Finney-Smith & Scottie Wilbekin. By season's end, Florida's adjusted o number will be higher but when they played in Madison, they certainly weren't the team they will finish as. Virginia actually averages less possessions a game than Wisconsin and are prone to scoring droughts but Wisconsin still deserves a ton of credit for completely dominating the Cavaliers on the road. That game was also am oulier for the Wisconsin offense. Hard to say what we ultimately, if anything, take out of this game. Still, those wins aren't against top notch offenses. And their best defensive stretch came against UWM, Eastern Kentucky, Prarie View A&M & Northwestern
Wisconsin has a defensive problem. They lack an interior defender that intimidates teams though they still do some things well. It isn't likely the Badgers currently have someone on the roster that can become an interior presence. Kaminsky isn't that guy. Say what you will about Bergrenn or even Brusiewitz, but they provide interior heft. The Badgers can't or won't zone like some suggested. Bo isn't going to change and the guards just aren't long enough to do that effectively.
March for Wisconsin will be about getting teams in their bracket that are not efficient on offense. The teams they recently all played, save Indiana are very good offensive teams. The Badgers are as good on offense as they usually are based on efficiency and are more certainly more explosive. But, interior defense seems their likely downfall.
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