A popular sentiment amongst the college basketball litterati is, Syracuse might be the best team in the nation. Are they? Beats me. The tournament is in March. I do know this, heading into March last year, the sentiment on Syracuse was pretty cool and they went to the Final 4 and nearly made the title game, losing a hard fought game against Michigan. Let's compare 2013 end of season Syracuse to where they are now.
Offensively, Syracuse is a better team in 2014. I have a reason for that which we'll explore in a little bit. They have abetter effective fg%, 51.1% in '14 vs. 49 % in '13. They're turning it over much less this season as well. 2013 TO % was 18.9, this year? 15.7%. They've always been a good rebounding team on the offensive glass. 38.7 % offensive rebounding % last vs. 39.6 % this. Overall adjusted O is 6th as of today versus finishing 29th last year. The Orange only average 62 possessions per game, 344th in the nation. They have been largely efficient but low scoring games shouldn't surprise us when they happen and they have.
On the defensive side of the ball, Syracuse still does what Syracuse does for the most part and have gotten better in one important regard. Teams are shooting better against the Orange in 2014, largely from beyond the arc. Teams are shooting 33% from deep vs. 28.3 % last year. Overall effective fg % is worse this year, 48.6 %, 129th best. Last year, they were 5th at 42.6 %. They still force a lot of turnovers. TO % is 25.1 %, up a tick from 23.5 % last season. One glaring issue last year was they gave up a lot of offensive boards to the opposition, a result of playing zone. Their defensive rebounding % was 34.4% last year, 281st. It's at the national average this season, about 3% better than last. In low possession contests, allowing fewer extended possessions is a plus. As they were last year, they're also amongst the national leaders in defensive block and steal %.
The clear difference to me between last year and this year is the point guard play. Michael Carter Williams was a wildly gifted player prone to bouts of indifference or inconsistency. The NCAA tournament sort of highlights Syracuse mirroring MCW.
Against Cal, MCW had 12 pts, 1 assist and 5 to's. Syracuse won that game by 6 in what was their closest game ofthe dance until they eventually lost to Michigan. MCW was very good against Indiana, scoring 24 points on 9-19 shooting in their Sweet 16 win against Indiana who were baffled by the Syracuse zone but a solid game from MCW certainly helped. Against Marquette, Williams had 12pts, 8 boards and 6 dimes as the Orange easily dispatched the Eagles. Against Michigan, he all but disappeared, getting outclassed by Trey Burke. MCW was 1-6 from the field and added only 2 assists.
Fast forward to this season and his replacement has been arguably the best freshman in the nation. Yeah, the best. Tyler Ennis has an Ortg (Offensive rating is points produced per possession by player) of 122.4. Williams was 102.6. Ennis has an effective fg% of 48.1 %, MCW was 43.8 %. Williams jacked 120 3's, making only 29 % of them. Ennis is more efficient, going 16-40, 40%. Williams had a better assist rate but Ennis protects the ball much better. The backcourt overall protects the ball better. The difference between last and this? Better point guard play in 2014.
Syracuse has a lot more going on than just Tyler Ennis. CJ Fair is quietly closing out a brilliant career. Trevor Cooney has provided offensive punch and Jerami Grant has been a solid all-around player. Also, watch Rakeem Christmas in the next 6 weeks. If he continues to improve, Syracuse will have another piece. But to me, the difference between last and this is largely the better PG play and last year's team went to a Final 4. It's an awful lot to expect a FROSH PG to lead a team on a deep run in March but Ennis might be the guy.
Are they the best team? Could be and the talk isn't crazy or silly.
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