Preseason Over/Under Achiever Review

Last week we took a look at our preseason Final Four and readjusted our outlook. Today we are going to take a look back at the teams we pegged as our preseason over and under achievers.

Over-Achievers:
Iowa – Both Kurly and myself had them pegged as a sleeper and they haven’t disappointed. A top 30 RPI and a 5-3 record against the top 100 has their arrow pointed up. Their only three losses have been against Villanova and at Wisconsin and Iowa State. Currently a top 3-4 seed I’m expecting them to stay that high come March

Virginia – The Cavalier had a slow start but have been coming on as of late. They have 5 losses but all of them are against likely tournament teams (UWGB, Wisconsin, VCU, Tennessee, and Duke). A top 25 RPI and an 8-4 record against the top 100 has them poised for a likely 5-6 seed come March.

Under-Achievers:
Ohio State – Boy did this look like a miss two weeks ago. Now, however, we have a different story. 4 straight losses including a bad one at Nebraska has Ohio State reeling. Although they are 9-4 against the top 100 they only have 1 top 50 win and that’s against North Dakota State (RPI of 49). There’s not much strength behind that 15-4 record and they’ve fallen from a #1 seed two weeks ago to 7 in this mornings bracketology.

North Carolina – They have huge wins against Kentucky, Michigan State, and Louisville but everything else screams NIT. The committee likely won’t forget those big wins come March but UNC really needs to bounce back from their 1-4 ACC start. The bad losses against UAB, Wake, and Belmont almost counteract the big wins. They are going to have to pile up wins along the way as they only 4 games against likely tournament teams. A split against Duke might be a must at this point.