Friday, January 31, 2014
Friday Afternoon Bracketology
1 seed vs 16 seed
Arizona (P12) vs Southern(SWAC)/NC-Central (MEAC)
Syracuse (ACC) vs Chattanoga(SoCon)/CoastCar(Bsouth)
Kansas (B12) vs Weber State (Bsky)
Wichita State (MVC) vs Stony Brook (Aest)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Florida (SEC) vs Robert Morris (NEC)
Michigan (B1G) vs Utah Valley (WAC)
San Diego St (MWC) vs American (Pat)
Michigan State vs UCSB (Bwest)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Duke vs Canisius (MAAC)
Villanova vs Georgia St (Sbelt)
Cincinnati (AAC) vs Stephen F. Austin (Sland)
Creighton (Beast) vs Delaware (Colonial)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Wisconsin vs Belmont (OVC)
Iowa State vs Mercer(Asun)
Kentucky vs North Dakota St(Summit)
Oklahoma State vs UW-Green Bay (Horizon)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Oklahoma vs Toledo (MAC)
Iowa vs BYU/LSU
St. Louis (A10) vs SMU/Tennessee
Massachusettes vs Arizona State
6 seed vs 11 seed
Louisville vs Missouri
Gonzaga (WCC) vs Stanford
Virginia vs California
Pittsburgh vs Harvard (Ivy)
7 seed vs 10 seed
Memphis vs Colorado
Connecticut vs Florida State
UCLA vs Providence
Texas vs Southern Miss (Cusa)
8 seed vs 9 seed
George Washington vs Ohio State
New Mexico vs North Carolina
Minnesota vs Kansas State
Xavier vs VCU
First Four Out
Boise State
Wake Forest
Oregon
Richmond
Next Four Out
Baylor
Maryland
Clemson
St. Mary's
Also Considered
Dayton
Wyoming
LaSalle
North Carolina St
Illinois
Mississippi
Indiana
UNLV
Purdue
Indiana State
Georgetown
Arkansas
Louisiana Tech
Thursday, January 30, 2014
George Washington Plays Hoops
Picked to finish in the middle or the bottom half of the A-10, George Washington currently resides in 2nd place, with a 5-1 record and a win over pre-season favorite VCU in its back pocket. As of today, coach Mike Lonergan and his Colonials appear headed back to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2007.
The Colonials are 17-3, 5-1 overall. Their only 3 losses are road losses at Kansas State and LaSalle, who they routed last night to avenge that loss. They also have aloss to Marquette on aneutral court in a game they were never seriously in. That one is a head-scratcher on a few levels. The Colonials best win is a neutral court win over Creighton where GW neutralized the potent Blue Jays attack and held them to 53 points. The Colonials RPI is 28th.
GW is ranked 35th overall in KenPom. Their offensive rank is 62nd and 32nd defensively. On offense they have an eefective fg% of 52.1%. They turn it over at the national average and lost G Kethan Savage until probably late February, so this could be an issue. They are a good offensive rebounding team. The Colonials offensive rebounding % is 36.6%, 40th best. They get to the line at a decent clip but shoot only 66.9% at the line. That's 271st in the nation.
On defense, the Colonials do most things pretty well. Their defensive fg% is 46.4%, 66th. Their turnover % is 20.9%, 51st best. They typically do a good job not fouling as well. The Colonials have a 14.3% block rate, 31st and a steal % of 11.8%, 22nd best in the nation. They are average on the boards on defense. The Colonials are a little stronger on defense than offense.
Like I noted earlier, they lost SOPH G Kethan Savage who was their 2nd leading scorer but they haven't missed a beat without him yet. Maurice Creek, a senior transfer from Indiana leads the team in scoring with 14.4ppg. SOPH F, Kevin Larson scores 11.7ppg and 6.4 rpg. SR G, Isaiah Armwood scores 11.2ppg and 8.2 rpg.
The Colonials are favored in all their remaining games except 3. They play at Dayton on Saturday who are basically playing for their NCAA lives and can't afford another loss. They also travel to VCU, Richmond and SLU. Losing all three of those wouldn't be a surprise and taking one a bonus.
The Colonials appear poised to end their tournament drought. Doubtful they do much damage but a return trip to the NCAAs is a positive step for the program who has struggled in recent years. The A-10 got reshuffled but remains quite strong.
The Colonials are 17-3, 5-1 overall. Their only 3 losses are road losses at Kansas State and LaSalle, who they routed last night to avenge that loss. They also have aloss to Marquette on aneutral court in a game they were never seriously in. That one is a head-scratcher on a few levels. The Colonials best win is a neutral court win over Creighton where GW neutralized the potent Blue Jays attack and held them to 53 points. The Colonials RPI is 28th.
GW is ranked 35th overall in KenPom. Their offensive rank is 62nd and 32nd defensively. On offense they have an eefective fg% of 52.1%. They turn it over at the national average and lost G Kethan Savage until probably late February, so this could be an issue. They are a good offensive rebounding team. The Colonials offensive rebounding % is 36.6%, 40th best. They get to the line at a decent clip but shoot only 66.9% at the line. That's 271st in the nation.
On defense, the Colonials do most things pretty well. Their defensive fg% is 46.4%, 66th. Their turnover % is 20.9%, 51st best. They typically do a good job not fouling as well. The Colonials have a 14.3% block rate, 31st and a steal % of 11.8%, 22nd best in the nation. They are average on the boards on defense. The Colonials are a little stronger on defense than offense.
Like I noted earlier, they lost SOPH G Kethan Savage who was their 2nd leading scorer but they haven't missed a beat without him yet. Maurice Creek, a senior transfer from Indiana leads the team in scoring with 14.4ppg. SOPH F, Kevin Larson scores 11.7ppg and 6.4 rpg. SR G, Isaiah Armwood scores 11.2ppg and 8.2 rpg.
The Colonials are favored in all their remaining games except 3. They play at Dayton on Saturday who are basically playing for their NCAA lives and can't afford another loss. They also travel to VCU, Richmond and SLU. Losing all three of those wouldn't be a surprise and taking one a bonus.
The Colonials appear poised to end their tournament drought. Doubtful they do much damage but a return trip to the NCAAs is a positive step for the program who has struggled in recent years. The A-10 got reshuffled but remains quite strong.
Bubble Games
Bubble Watch Tonight
Providence at Marquette – The Friars can probably afford a road loss and stay in the bracket. Better not chance it though.
Oregon vs UCLA and St. Mary’s at San Diego – the Gaels and Ducks need to win to stay in the bracket
BYU vs Pacific and Louisiana Tech vs UTEP – BYU is in our first four out and Louisiana Tech has slim hopes. Neither can afford a loss.
Wednesday, January 29, 2014
Bubble Games - 1/29
Dayton vs St. Joseph’s
Dayton has almost completely fell off the radar after once being safely in. This would be a solid road win and a necessity for the Flyers to remain in the discussion.
North Carolina vs Georgia Tech
Lots of good wins but also a lot of bad losses for the Tar Heels. These are the kinds of games UNC has lost this year. They need to pile up some ACC wins bad.
Richmond at St. Louis
And just like that we have a 5th team knocking on the door of the bracket. The Spiders have been hot of late and springing an upset at St. Louis might be enough to leap from one of the last two or three in the bracket. Is the A-10 a 5 bid league?
Mississippi at Tennessee
Mississippi is my last team in the bracket but it’s really only because nobody else jumped out at me. A road win keeps them in but if they lose they will be out. Replaced by Tennessee, perhaps?
Arizona State at California
The Sun Devils keep flip flopping in and out of the bracket and today they are in. That usually means they are due for a loss. Cali has been tough at home
Arizona at Stanford
A bonus write up as we have the #1 seed travelling to Stanford for a late night matchup. Stanford is barely in the bracket and I’m calling the upset with a court rush around 10:15pm.
Tuesday, January 28, 2014
Bubble Games
Missouri at Arkansas
Neither have looked good as of late but Arkansas needs to serve court at home to be able to remain in the conversation. This would be a good road win for Missouri so they need to be up for this game otherwise they will be on the outside looking in.
Kentucky at LSU
LSU started off solid but again they are struggling. Kentucky has looked impressive as of late. A win by the Tigers won’t get them in the bracket but a loss puts them under 500 in the conference and seriously dents their at large hopes.
West Virginia at Baylor
Baylor, 1-5 in the conference, needs to break out of this slump B-A-D. They still have an above average resume but they need to pile up wins against the middle of the Big 12 to get back to 500. Seth Greenburg claims the Big 12 is a 7 bid league but everybody knows he’s crazy. How does he have a job at ESPN?
Monday, January 27, 2014
Hawkeye Hoops
Despite a loss at B1G-undefeated Michigan last week, a case can be made the Iowa Hawkeyes are the class of the B1G this season. They have two losses in conference. The first was at Wisconsin where Fran McCaffery decided to meltdown on the sideline and then the aforementioned lost at Crisler. Tomorrow, they get a dinged Sparty at home. They may not win the conference, but they are as talented as any team in it and certainly capable of going as far as any come March.
As of today, Iowa ranks 4th in adjusted O and 19th in adjusted d. On offense, they play at the 16th fastest tempo in the nation. They're a menace with the ball. They'r solid with the ball. Their offensive turnover rate is 16.5%, 61st best and have an effective fg% of 52.6%, 55th best. They get second chance points. The Hawkeyes are 15th in the nation in offensive rebounding%, 38.6%. On top of that, they get to the line. Their FTA/FGA is 48.9%, 39th best. They shoot 37.7% from deep but don't overly rely on the long ball. ABout 21% of the offense is generated from beyond the arc. They get a larger % of the offense from the free throw line. This is a solid offensive group.
They're almost as good on defense and could be better. Teams have an effective fg% of 42.9% against the Hawkeyes. That's 8th best. The turnover % is average but the rest is very good. Their defensive rebounding % is 28.4%, 56th best and they don't foul often. Teams only shoot 28% from deep against them. That's 10th best in the land. They are not a one-sided team. They play both sides of the ball.
They are also as deep as anyone in the nation. Only 13 teams get more minutes from their bench than the Hawkeyes. The leader is SR. Roy Devyn Marble. Marble scores 16.1 ppg. Marble has seen the lean years and appears headed out on a high note. JR. F Aaron White is probably their second best player, maybe their best. He scores 13.7 ppg and grabs 6.5 rpg. He has the nations 19th best effective fg%, 64.6%. He shoots nearly 70% in the paint. Former Badger and Bo Ryan favorite, Jarrod Uthoff adds 9 & 5. JR. G Josh Oglesby is working himself back from injury and only adds to the Hawkeyes depth and weapons. This is just a brief glimpse. They have 7 other solid contibutors
I'm probably biased about the Hawkeyes because I saw this coming before last season. They were a few breaks away from dancing last seasonbut are leaving no doubt this year. Fran McCaffrey is one of the more underappreciated coaches in the nation and he did a good job building this team to play like he wants and the administration and fans accepted his rebuilding job. It's paying off. Even with 3 seniors, this team is built for winning now and won't slip very far, if at all going forward. A Final Four is not out of the question with this club and a sustained period of success is in its future.
As of today, Iowa ranks 4th in adjusted O and 19th in adjusted d. On offense, they play at the 16th fastest tempo in the nation. They're a menace with the ball. They'r solid with the ball. Their offensive turnover rate is 16.5%, 61st best and have an effective fg% of 52.6%, 55th best. They get second chance points. The Hawkeyes are 15th in the nation in offensive rebounding%, 38.6%. On top of that, they get to the line. Their FTA/FGA is 48.9%, 39th best. They shoot 37.7% from deep but don't overly rely on the long ball. ABout 21% of the offense is generated from beyond the arc. They get a larger % of the offense from the free throw line. This is a solid offensive group.
They're almost as good on defense and could be better. Teams have an effective fg% of 42.9% against the Hawkeyes. That's 8th best. The turnover % is average but the rest is very good. Their defensive rebounding % is 28.4%, 56th best and they don't foul often. Teams only shoot 28% from deep against them. That's 10th best in the land. They are not a one-sided team. They play both sides of the ball.
They are also as deep as anyone in the nation. Only 13 teams get more minutes from their bench than the Hawkeyes. The leader is SR. Roy Devyn Marble. Marble scores 16.1 ppg. Marble has seen the lean years and appears headed out on a high note. JR. F Aaron White is probably their second best player, maybe their best. He scores 13.7 ppg and grabs 6.5 rpg. He has the nations 19th best effective fg%, 64.6%. He shoots nearly 70% in the paint. Former Badger and Bo Ryan favorite, Jarrod Uthoff adds 9 & 5. JR. G Josh Oglesby is working himself back from injury and only adds to the Hawkeyes depth and weapons. This is just a brief glimpse. They have 7 other solid contibutors
I'm probably biased about the Hawkeyes because I saw this coming before last season. They were a few breaks away from dancing last seasonbut are leaving no doubt this year. Fran McCaffrey is one of the more underappreciated coaches in the nation and he did a good job building this team to play like he wants and the administration and fans accepted his rebuilding job. It's paying off. Even with 3 seniors, this team is built for winning now and won't slip very far, if at all going forward. A Final Four is not out of the question with this club and a sustained period of success is in its future.
Monday Morning Bracketology
1 seed vs 16 seed
Arizona (P12) vs Southern(SWAC)/SavanahSt (MEAC)
Syracuse (ACC) vs Chattanoga(SoCon)/UNC-Ash(Bsouth)
Kansas (B12) vs N.Colorado (Bsky)
Wichita State (MVC) vs Stony Brook (Aest)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Florida (SEC) vs Robert Morris (NEC)
Villanova vs Utah Valley (WAC)
San Diego St (MWC) vs American (Pat)
Michigan State vs UC-Irvine (Bwest)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Kentucky vs Canisius (MAAC)
Wisconsin vs Georgia St (Sbelt)
Iowa State vs Stephen F. Austin (Sland)
Duke vs Delaware (Colonial)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Oklahoma State vs Belmont (OVC)
Iowa vs Mercer(Asun)
Michigan (B1G) vs North Dakota St(Summit)
Creighton (Beast) vs UW-Green Bay (Horizon)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Massachusettes vs Toledo (MAC)
Cincinnati (AAC) vs Arizona State/St. Mary's
Pittsburgh vs Missouri/Colorado
Louisville vs Stanford
6 seed vs 11 seed
Gonzaga (WCC) vs North Carolina
St. Louis (A10) vs Harvard (Ivy)
Memphis vs Kansas State
Ohio State vs SMU
7 seed vs 10 seed
Virginia vs Minnesota
Connecticut vs Baylor
UCLA vs Florida State
Oklahoma vs Southern Miss (Cusa)
8 seed vs 9 seed
Texas vs Providence
New Mexico vs Oregon
George Washington vs VCU
Xavier vs California
First Four Out
Louisiana Tech
Mississippi
Tennessee
Wake Forest
Next Four Out
Georgetown
BYU
Boise State
Arkansas
Also Considered
Dayton
Wyoming
LaSalle
North Carolina St
Illinois
Maryland
Indiana
Richmond
UNLV
Purdue
Indiana State
LSU
Clemson
Saturday, January 25, 2014
Reclamation of Rick Barnes
In January of 2010, Rick Barnes and Texas rose to the top spot in the nation. Ever since then, Texas basketball has been part disappointment, part wreck, part underachieving. Heading into this season, expectations matched recent results, very little. After all, Texas lost Myck Kabongo to the NBA and two other leading scorers, Julian Lewis and Sheldon McClellan transfered. Picked to finish 8th, it seemed an almost certainty Barnes would be out as his biggest supporter, AD DeLoss Dodds had retired.
Well, after a win at Baylor today, the Longhorns 4th straight over a ranked foe, next weeks mathcup in Austin against Kansas suddenly looks like one of the best and biggest games of the weekend. Sitting at 16-4, Texas appears headed back to the NCAA tournament.
They don't have a great non-conference win. They only beat a bad Temple team by one and their win over North Carolina is difficult to asses. That's not their fault. Temple and UNC are typically good non-conference games. They have a loss to BYU on a neutral court. BYU will probably be a bubble team. The Longhorns other losses are to Michigan State, OU and Oklahoma State, all tourney bound teams.
Texas plays an up-tempo style, 31st quickest in the nation. Their adjusted O is 71st while their d is 26th. Texas doesn't shoot very well. Their effective fg% is 48.7%, 203rd. This is largely due to their poor 3pt shooting. They do a fairly decent job protecting the ball. The Longhorns turnover % is 17.5%. What helps them offensively is they will get second chance points. They have an offensive rebounding % of 36.7%, 40th in the land. 56.5% of their scoring comes from the paint. That's well above the national average. They get to the line at a fialry decent clip but shoot a brutal 65.3%. That'll be a flaw later in the season for them.
Texas plays solid defense. Teams have an effective fg% of 46% against the Longhorns. They don't force many turnovers but they clean the glass, keeping 2nd chance points at a minimum. Teams only get 28.2% of their misses. They are foul prone. Their FTA/FGA rate is 42.0%, 208th in the land. That'll be worth watching given their struggles at the line in close games.
Texas has a nice interior combo in JR. F Jonathan Holmes and SOPH C. Cameron Ridley. Holmes has an effective fg% of 58.2% to go with 12.8ppg and 7.4rpg. Holmes can make a 3 for Texas from time-to-time as well. Holmes does pick up fouls, though he's cleaned that up during this stretch. He has 3 dq's, 2 of which were in losses. Ridley gets 11.3 & 7.5 to go with 2.4 blocks per game. Ridley only shoots 61% from the line and gets there at a good clip.
The backcourt was a concern heading into the season. But Texas has gooten good play from SOPH Javan Felix and FR Isaiah Taylor. Felix was the de facto PG last year but Taylor has more or less taken that roll this year. Both average double figures. Felix, at this moment, is more secure with the ball. Taylor is 70% at the line. Not terrible, not great for the freshmen. The backcourt is backed up by Damarcus Croaker a frosh and soph Demarcus Holland. Croaker's minutes have been declining and Holland has seen much more court time recently.
The Big XII is a meat grinder this year, arguably the deepest conference in the nation. They'll be plenty of land mines ahead for Texas but they've positioned themselves nicely heading into the stretch. Given what was expected heading into the season and what they lost, Rick Barnes has probably earned Big XII COY. Are they a threat in March? A Sweet 16 seems the ceiling at best but getting back is a good step for the future of Rick Barnes and the program. To this point, it's been a very good season for the Longhorns.
Well, after a win at Baylor today, the Longhorns 4th straight over a ranked foe, next weeks mathcup in Austin against Kansas suddenly looks like one of the best and biggest games of the weekend. Sitting at 16-4, Texas appears headed back to the NCAA tournament.
They don't have a great non-conference win. They only beat a bad Temple team by one and their win over North Carolina is difficult to asses. That's not their fault. Temple and UNC are typically good non-conference games. They have a loss to BYU on a neutral court. BYU will probably be a bubble team. The Longhorns other losses are to Michigan State, OU and Oklahoma State, all tourney bound teams.
Texas plays an up-tempo style, 31st quickest in the nation. Their adjusted O is 71st while their d is 26th. Texas doesn't shoot very well. Their effective fg% is 48.7%, 203rd. This is largely due to their poor 3pt shooting. They do a fairly decent job protecting the ball. The Longhorns turnover % is 17.5%. What helps them offensively is they will get second chance points. They have an offensive rebounding % of 36.7%, 40th in the land. 56.5% of their scoring comes from the paint. That's well above the national average. They get to the line at a fialry decent clip but shoot a brutal 65.3%. That'll be a flaw later in the season for them.
Texas plays solid defense. Teams have an effective fg% of 46% against the Longhorns. They don't force many turnovers but they clean the glass, keeping 2nd chance points at a minimum. Teams only get 28.2% of their misses. They are foul prone. Their FTA/FGA rate is 42.0%, 208th in the land. That'll be worth watching given their struggles at the line in close games.
Texas has a nice interior combo in JR. F Jonathan Holmes and SOPH C. Cameron Ridley. Holmes has an effective fg% of 58.2% to go with 12.8ppg and 7.4rpg. Holmes can make a 3 for Texas from time-to-time as well. Holmes does pick up fouls, though he's cleaned that up during this stretch. He has 3 dq's, 2 of which were in losses. Ridley gets 11.3 & 7.5 to go with 2.4 blocks per game. Ridley only shoots 61% from the line and gets there at a good clip.
The backcourt was a concern heading into the season. But Texas has gooten good play from SOPH Javan Felix and FR Isaiah Taylor. Felix was the de facto PG last year but Taylor has more or less taken that roll this year. Both average double figures. Felix, at this moment, is more secure with the ball. Taylor is 70% at the line. Not terrible, not great for the freshmen. The backcourt is backed up by Damarcus Croaker a frosh and soph Demarcus Holland. Croaker's minutes have been declining and Holland has seen much more court time recently.
The Big XII is a meat grinder this year, arguably the deepest conference in the nation. They'll be plenty of land mines ahead for Texas but they've positioned themselves nicely heading into the stretch. Given what was expected heading into the season and what they lost, Rick Barnes has probably earned Big XII COY. Are they a threat in March? A Sweet 16 seems the ceiling at best but getting back is a good step for the future of Rick Barnes and the program. To this point, it's been a very good season for the Longhorns.
Friday, January 24, 2014
Friday Afternoon Bracketology
1 seed vs 16 seed
Arizona (P12) vs Southern(SWAC)/SavanahSt (MEAC)
Syracuse (ACC) vs Chattanoga(SoCon)/UNC-Ash(Bsouth)
Michigan State (B1G) vs N.Colorado (Bsky)
Wichita State (MVC) vs Stony Brook (Aest)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Kansas (B12) vs Robert Morris (NEC)
Florida (SEC) vs Utah Valley (WAC)
Villanova vs American (Pat)
San Diego St (MWC) vs Canisius (MAAC)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Kentucky vs UC-Irvine (Bwest)
Wisconsin vs Georgia St (Sbelt)
Iowa State vs Stephen F. Austin (Sland)
Duke vs Delaware (Colonial)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Oklahoma State vs Belmont (OVC)
Iowa vs Mercer(Asun)
Massachusettes vs North Dakota St(Summit)
Creighton (Beast) vs UW-Green Bay (Horizon)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Michigan vs Toledo (MAC)
Cincinnati (AAC) vs Tennessee/North Carolina
Pittsburgh vs Providence/Stanford
Louisville vs Missouri
6 seed vs 11 seed
Gonzaga (WCC) vs St. Mary's
St. Louis (A10) vs Harvard (Ivy)
Memphis vs Oregon
Ohio State vs SMU
7 seed vs 10 seed
Virginia vs Southern Miss (Cusa)
Connecticut vs Florida State
Xavier vs Baylor
UCLA vs VCU
8 seed vs 9 seed
Oklahoma vs Texas
California vs Colorado
New Mexico vs Minnesota
George Washington vs Kansas State
First Four Out
Georgetown
BYU
Louisiana Tech
Arizona State
Next Four Out
Wake Forest
Arkansas
Boise State
Mississippi
Also Considered
Dayton
North Dakota State
LaSalle
North Carolina St
Illinois
Maryland
Indiana
Utah State
UNLV
Purdue
Indiana State
LSU
Notre Dame
Clemson
Thursday, January 23, 2014
Cause for Concern: Wisconsin Edition
A mere 10 days ago, Wisconsin stood at 16-0, off to the best start in school history and national pundits proclaiming this Bo's best team since he arrived in Madison. Fast forward to today and we see a team with flaws being exposed and questions arise whether or not this is Bo's worst defensive team since he arrived. Watching Jeff Potrykus melt down on twitter has been particularly fun. Let's take a look at what the real story is.
After last night's loss in Minnesota, Wisconsin's defefnse fell to 55th in KenPom's adjusted D. 10 days ago, it was top 10. That shows a large amount of volatitility but it's probably about where it belongs. We'll look at what I mean in a bit but let's see what the numbers tell us.
The effective fg% last year was 7th in the land. This year, it's 78th. 43% vs. 46.7%, still well above the national average. The Badgers still don't foul teams. They lead the nation in FTA/FGA, better than last. They also still don't force turnovers. Last year's turnover % was 18%, 27th. This year is worse, 16%, 315th. Bo Ryan can live with that as long as they aren't giving free baskets by fouling which they certainly don't. They're also 56nd in defensive rebounding %. Last year, they were 28th. Not a huge swing. Teams are shooting the 3 better, making 32.6% versus 28.9% last. Teams are shooting 46% from 2 this year, versus 42.8% last. Perhaps most telling, last years block % was 10.8%. This year? 8.2%. 227th in the nation. That isn't a surprise giving the loss of Jared Bergrenn and perhaps the crux of the problem.
In their 3 losses, Indiana scored 52 in the paint, Michigan 26 & Minnesota 48. While Frank Kaminsky has been a revelation on offense, he simply isn't a solid post defender. In those losses, Indiana shot 51.6%, Michigan 54.7% and Minnesota, 58.9% despite losing their best player a minute into the game. The Inidana game is the concerning one. Indiana is 156th in KenPom on adjusted O. They still pounded the Badgers inside. One game later, Northwestern shut the Hooisers down. Is the defense beginning to get exposed? I think so.
If we look at their non-conference schedule, we see solid wins but we also see a lot of opponents that aren't exactly offensive juggernaughts. The following shows the points allowed and KP offensive ratings:
- St. John's; 75, 128th
- Florida; 53, 43rd
- UWGB; 66, 30th
- SLU; 57, 185th
- West Virginia; 63, 175th
- Virginia; 38, 66th
- Marquette; 64, 126th
- Northwestern; 49, 323rd
- Illinois; 70, 175th
They played Florida in a what we would conceive as a prototypical Badgers game, 60 possessions and the Gators were missing Dorian Finney-Smith & Scottie Wilbekin. By season's end, Florida's adjusted o number will be higher but when they played in Madison, they certainly weren't the team they will finish as. Virginia actually averages less possessions a game than Wisconsin and are prone to scoring droughts but Wisconsin still deserves a ton of credit for completely dominating the Cavaliers on the road. That game was also am oulier for the Wisconsin offense. Hard to say what we ultimately, if anything, take out of this game. Still, those wins aren't against top notch offenses. And their best defensive stretch came against UWM, Eastern Kentucky, Prarie View A&M & Northwestern
Wisconsin has a defensive problem. They lack an interior defender that intimidates teams though they still do some things well. It isn't likely the Badgers currently have someone on the roster that can become an interior presence. Kaminsky isn't that guy. Say what you will about Bergrenn or even Brusiewitz, but they provide interior heft. The Badgers can't or won't zone like some suggested. Bo isn't going to change and the guards just aren't long enough to do that effectively.
March for Wisconsin will be about getting teams in their bracket that are not efficient on offense. The teams they recently all played, save Indiana are very good offensive teams. The Badgers are as good on offense as they usually are based on efficiency and are more certainly more explosive. But, interior defense seems their likely downfall.
After last night's loss in Minnesota, Wisconsin's defefnse fell to 55th in KenPom's adjusted D. 10 days ago, it was top 10. That shows a large amount of volatitility but it's probably about where it belongs. We'll look at what I mean in a bit but let's see what the numbers tell us.
The effective fg% last year was 7th in the land. This year, it's 78th. 43% vs. 46.7%, still well above the national average. The Badgers still don't foul teams. They lead the nation in FTA/FGA, better than last. They also still don't force turnovers. Last year's turnover % was 18%, 27th. This year is worse, 16%, 315th. Bo Ryan can live with that as long as they aren't giving free baskets by fouling which they certainly don't. They're also 56nd in defensive rebounding %. Last year, they were 28th. Not a huge swing. Teams are shooting the 3 better, making 32.6% versus 28.9% last. Teams are shooting 46% from 2 this year, versus 42.8% last. Perhaps most telling, last years block % was 10.8%. This year? 8.2%. 227th in the nation. That isn't a surprise giving the loss of Jared Bergrenn and perhaps the crux of the problem.
In their 3 losses, Indiana scored 52 in the paint, Michigan 26 & Minnesota 48. While Frank Kaminsky has been a revelation on offense, he simply isn't a solid post defender. In those losses, Indiana shot 51.6%, Michigan 54.7% and Minnesota, 58.9% despite losing their best player a minute into the game. The Inidana game is the concerning one. Indiana is 156th in KenPom on adjusted O. They still pounded the Badgers inside. One game later, Northwestern shut the Hooisers down. Is the defense beginning to get exposed? I think so.
If we look at their non-conference schedule, we see solid wins but we also see a lot of opponents that aren't exactly offensive juggernaughts. The following shows the points allowed and KP offensive ratings:
- St. John's; 75, 128th
- Florida; 53, 43rd
- UWGB; 66, 30th
- SLU; 57, 185th
- West Virginia; 63, 175th
- Virginia; 38, 66th
- Marquette; 64, 126th
- Northwestern; 49, 323rd
- Illinois; 70, 175th
They played Florida in a what we would conceive as a prototypical Badgers game, 60 possessions and the Gators were missing Dorian Finney-Smith & Scottie Wilbekin. By season's end, Florida's adjusted o number will be higher but when they played in Madison, they certainly weren't the team they will finish as. Virginia actually averages less possessions a game than Wisconsin and are prone to scoring droughts but Wisconsin still deserves a ton of credit for completely dominating the Cavaliers on the road. That game was also am oulier for the Wisconsin offense. Hard to say what we ultimately, if anything, take out of this game. Still, those wins aren't against top notch offenses. And their best defensive stretch came against UWM, Eastern Kentucky, Prarie View A&M & Northwestern
Wisconsin has a defensive problem. They lack an interior defender that intimidates teams though they still do some things well. It isn't likely the Badgers currently have someone on the roster that can become an interior presence. Kaminsky isn't that guy. Say what you will about Bergrenn or even Brusiewitz, but they provide interior heft. The Badgers can't or won't zone like some suggested. Bo isn't going to change and the guards just aren't long enough to do that effectively.
March for Wisconsin will be about getting teams in their bracket that are not efficient on offense. The teams they recently all played, save Indiana are very good offensive teams. The Badgers are as good on offense as they usually are based on efficiency and are more certainly more explosive. But, interior defense seems their likely downfall.
Low Major At Large Hopes
Toledo – it wasn’t that long ago that the MAC was a multiple bid league. Of course that was back in the Antonio Gates Kent State days. As for now Toledo looks like best bet among the low majors to be able to secure an at large bid. Currently they have an RPI of 39 with their two losses being at Western Michigan and at Kansas. Outside of Kansas they have not played any top 100 games. That may come back to haunt them come March. If they win out, and they don’t have the second place team in the MAC on the schedule (Akron), they would be 32-2 going into their championship game. Would a loss in that game relegate them to the NIT? With an easy schedule and no top 100 wins I could easily see their RPI falling from 39 to the mid-60’s and with that profile I’m not sure it’s going to happen.
Indiana State – Ah, the Missouri Valley, another old time multiple bid conference that has fallen on hard times. At this point Wichita State is a 1 seed but will the Valley get a second team? The most likely at this point are the Sycamores. At 15-4 most of their losses are against bid worthy teams, Wichita State, Belmont, and St. Louis however they don’t boast a top 50 win. 3-1 against 51-100 is a solid mark but a NCSOS of 231 is damaging. With 11 games left they have ample opportunities to build their resume. 4 games are against top 100 RPI teams with a visit from Wichita State on February 5 a must win. If they can spring the upset and avoid any bad losses they may be able to propel themselves into the discussion before the Valley Conference Tournament.
Tuesday, January 21, 2014
Preseason Over/Under Achiever Review
Last week we took a look at our preseason Final Four and readjusted our outlook. Today we are going to take a look back at the teams we pegged as our preseason over and under achievers.
Over-Achievers:
Iowa – Both Kurly and myself had them pegged as a sleeper and they haven’t disappointed. A top 30 RPI and a 5-3 record against the top 100 has their arrow pointed up. Their only three losses have been against Villanova and at Wisconsin and Iowa State. Currently a top 3-4 seed I’m expecting them to stay that high come March
Virginia – The Cavalier had a slow start but have been coming on as of late. They have 5 losses but all of them are against likely tournament teams (UWGB, Wisconsin, VCU, Tennessee, and Duke). A top 25 RPI and an 8-4 record against the top 100 has them poised for a likely 5-6 seed come March.
Under-Achievers:
Ohio State – Boy did this look like a miss two weeks ago. Now, however, we have a different story. 4 straight losses including a bad one at Nebraska has Ohio State reeling. Although they are 9-4 against the top 100 they only have 1 top 50 win and that’s against North Dakota State (RPI of 49). There’s not much strength behind that 15-4 record and they’ve fallen from a #1 seed two weeks ago to 7 in this mornings bracketology.
North Carolina – They have huge wins against Kentucky, Michigan State, and Louisville but everything else screams NIT. The committee likely won’t forget those big wins come March but UNC really needs to bounce back from their 1-4 ACC start. The bad losses against UAB, Wake, and Belmont almost counteract the big wins. They are going to have to pile up wins along the way as they only 4 games against likely tournament teams. A split against Duke might be a must at this point.
Monday, January 20, 2014
Creighton Pantsing Villanova
Creighton leads Villanova by 40 with 6:35 left at Villanova.
Creighton has 21 3 pointers. Ethan Wragge and his 71.1% effective fg% is 9-13 from deep.
Ethan Wragge is not human
Is Syracuse the best Team in the Land?
A popular sentiment amongst the college basketball litterati is, Syracuse might be the best team in the nation. Are they? Beats me. The tournament is in March. I do know this, heading into March last year, the sentiment on Syracuse was pretty cool and they went to the Final 4 and nearly made the title game, losing a hard fought game against Michigan. Let's compare 2013 end of season Syracuse to where they are now.
Offensively, Syracuse is a better team in 2014. I have a reason for that which we'll explore in a little bit. They have abetter effective fg%, 51.1% in '14 vs. 49 % in '13. They're turning it over much less this season as well. 2013 TO % was 18.9, this year? 15.7%. They've always been a good rebounding team on the offensive glass. 38.7 % offensive rebounding % last vs. 39.6 % this. Overall adjusted O is 6th as of today versus finishing 29th last year. The Orange only average 62 possessions per game, 344th in the nation. They have been largely efficient but low scoring games shouldn't surprise us when they happen and they have.
On the defensive side of the ball, Syracuse still does what Syracuse does for the most part and have gotten better in one important regard. Teams are shooting better against the Orange in 2014, largely from beyond the arc. Teams are shooting 33% from deep vs. 28.3 % last year. Overall effective fg % is worse this year, 48.6 %, 129th best. Last year, they were 5th at 42.6 %. They still force a lot of turnovers. TO % is 25.1 %, up a tick from 23.5 % last season. One glaring issue last year was they gave up a lot of offensive boards to the opposition, a result of playing zone. Their defensive rebounding % was 34.4% last year, 281st. It's at the national average this season, about 3% better than last. In low possession contests, allowing fewer extended possessions is a plus. As they were last year, they're also amongst the national leaders in defensive block and steal %.
The clear difference to me between last year and this year is the point guard play. Michael Carter Williams was a wildly gifted player prone to bouts of indifference or inconsistency. The NCAA tournament sort of highlights Syracuse mirroring MCW.
Against Cal, MCW had 12 pts, 1 assist and 5 to's. Syracuse won that game by 6 in what was their closest game ofthe dance until they eventually lost to Michigan. MCW was very good against Indiana, scoring 24 points on 9-19 shooting in their Sweet 16 win against Indiana who were baffled by the Syracuse zone but a solid game from MCW certainly helped. Against Marquette, Williams had 12pts, 8 boards and 6 dimes as the Orange easily dispatched the Eagles. Against Michigan, he all but disappeared, getting outclassed by Trey Burke. MCW was 1-6 from the field and added only 2 assists.
Fast forward to this season and his replacement has been arguably the best freshman in the nation. Yeah, the best. Tyler Ennis has an Ortg (Offensive rating is points produced per possession by player) of 122.4. Williams was 102.6. Ennis has an effective fg% of 48.1 %, MCW was 43.8 %. Williams jacked 120 3's, making only 29 % of them. Ennis is more efficient, going 16-40, 40%. Williams had a better assist rate but Ennis protects the ball much better. The backcourt overall protects the ball better. The difference between last and this? Better point guard play in 2014.
Syracuse has a lot more going on than just Tyler Ennis. CJ Fair is quietly closing out a brilliant career. Trevor Cooney has provided offensive punch and Jerami Grant has been a solid all-around player. Also, watch Rakeem Christmas in the next 6 weeks. If he continues to improve, Syracuse will have another piece. But to me, the difference between last and this is largely the better PG play and last year's team went to a Final 4. It's an awful lot to expect a FROSH PG to lead a team on a deep run in March but Ennis might be the guy.
Are they the best team? Could be and the talk isn't crazy or silly.
Offensively, Syracuse is a better team in 2014. I have a reason for that which we'll explore in a little bit. They have abetter effective fg%, 51.1% in '14 vs. 49 % in '13. They're turning it over much less this season as well. 2013 TO % was 18.9, this year? 15.7%. They've always been a good rebounding team on the offensive glass. 38.7 % offensive rebounding % last vs. 39.6 % this. Overall adjusted O is 6th as of today versus finishing 29th last year. The Orange only average 62 possessions per game, 344th in the nation. They have been largely efficient but low scoring games shouldn't surprise us when they happen and they have.
On the defensive side of the ball, Syracuse still does what Syracuse does for the most part and have gotten better in one important regard. Teams are shooting better against the Orange in 2014, largely from beyond the arc. Teams are shooting 33% from deep vs. 28.3 % last year. Overall effective fg % is worse this year, 48.6 %, 129th best. Last year, they were 5th at 42.6 %. They still force a lot of turnovers. TO % is 25.1 %, up a tick from 23.5 % last season. One glaring issue last year was they gave up a lot of offensive boards to the opposition, a result of playing zone. Their defensive rebounding % was 34.4% last year, 281st. It's at the national average this season, about 3% better than last. In low possession contests, allowing fewer extended possessions is a plus. As they were last year, they're also amongst the national leaders in defensive block and steal %.
The clear difference to me between last year and this year is the point guard play. Michael Carter Williams was a wildly gifted player prone to bouts of indifference or inconsistency. The NCAA tournament sort of highlights Syracuse mirroring MCW.
Against Cal, MCW had 12 pts, 1 assist and 5 to's. Syracuse won that game by 6 in what was their closest game ofthe dance until they eventually lost to Michigan. MCW was very good against Indiana, scoring 24 points on 9-19 shooting in their Sweet 16 win against Indiana who were baffled by the Syracuse zone but a solid game from MCW certainly helped. Against Marquette, Williams had 12pts, 8 boards and 6 dimes as the Orange easily dispatched the Eagles. Against Michigan, he all but disappeared, getting outclassed by Trey Burke. MCW was 1-6 from the field and added only 2 assists.
Fast forward to this season and his replacement has been arguably the best freshman in the nation. Yeah, the best. Tyler Ennis has an Ortg (Offensive rating is points produced per possession by player) of 122.4. Williams was 102.6. Ennis has an effective fg% of 48.1 %, MCW was 43.8 %. Williams jacked 120 3's, making only 29 % of them. Ennis is more efficient, going 16-40, 40%. Williams had a better assist rate but Ennis protects the ball much better. The backcourt overall protects the ball better. The difference between last and this? Better point guard play in 2014.
Syracuse has a lot more going on than just Tyler Ennis. CJ Fair is quietly closing out a brilliant career. Trevor Cooney has provided offensive punch and Jerami Grant has been a solid all-around player. Also, watch Rakeem Christmas in the next 6 weeks. If he continues to improve, Syracuse will have another piece. But to me, the difference between last and this is largely the better PG play and last year's team went to a Final 4. It's an awful lot to expect a FROSH PG to lead a team on a deep run in March but Ennis might be the guy.
Are they the best team? Could be and the talk isn't crazy or silly.
Monday Bracketology
1 seed vs 16 seed
Arizona (P12) vs Southern(SWAC)/SavanahSt (MEAC)
Syracuse (ACC) vs Chattanoga(SoCon)/Radford(Bsouth)
Michigan State (B1G) vs South Dakota (Summit)
Villanova (Beast) vs Old Dominion (Cusa)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Wichita State (MVC) vs Robert Morris (NEC)
Kansas (B12) vs N.Colorado (Bsky)
Florida (SEC) vs Stony Brook (Aest)
San Diego St (MWC) vs Utah Valley (WAC)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Kentucky vs UC-Irvine (Bwest)
Wisconsin vs Georgia St (Sbelt)
Iowa vs Boston (Pat)
Massachusettes (A10) vs Stephen F. Austin (Sland)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Oklahoma State vs Delaware (Colonial)
Iowa State vs Belmont (OVC)
Duke vs Mercer(Asun)
Ohio State vs Manhatten (MAAC)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Gonzaga (WCC) vs UW-Green Bay (Horizon)
Cincinnati (AAC) vs Toledo (MAC)
Creighton vs SMU/BYU
Pittsburgh vs Stanford/Southern Miss
6 seed vs 11 seed
Baylor vs Georgetown
Colorado vs VCU
Louisville vs Minnesota
St. Louis vs Texas
7 seed vs 10 seed
Memphis vs Florida State
Michigan vs North Carolina
Connecticut vs California
Virginia vs George Washington
8 seed vs 9 seed
Xavier vs Oklahoma
Harvard (Ivy) vs Oregon
New Mexico vs Missouri
UCLA vs Kansas State
First Four Out
St. Mary's
Dayton
Illinois
Tennessee
Next Four Out
Boise State
LSU
Clemson
Indiana
Also Considered
Arizona State
North Dakota State
LaSalle
Wake Forest
North Carolina St
Mississippi
Maryland
Arkansas
Utah State
Louisiana Tech
UNLV
Purdue
Indiana State
Providence
Notre Dame
Missouri State
Sunday, January 19, 2014
Sunday Musings From Across the Land 1-19 Edition
THE AAC
- Louisville and Cincinnati have stamped themselves as the class of the new AAC. Louisville went into UConn and defeated the Huskies on Saturday night while Cincinnati continues to bludgeon its opponents, winning at USF. The Bearcats are 6-0 in conference play and should be 8-0 heading into a matchup at Louisville on January 30th. Cincinnati still has road games with UCOnn and SMU as well.
Memphis, UConn & SMU remain in the mix. I'll remain doubtful of Memphis even with its win at Louisville easrlier this month. Home losses to Cincinnati and UConn are hard to scrub, along with the history of the Tigers.
THE ACC
- Virginia easily handled Florida State at home, sweeping the season series with FSU. They did lose earlier in the week at Duke. Other than that, the Cavs have rolled through the ACC up to this point.
- Duke smoked NC State at home playing like the Duke team you fear. They travel to Pitt and Syracuse in back-to-back games at the end of the month. A split their would go a long way for them. Amile Jefferson has stepped up his play the last few games. His emergence is key
- Syracuse held off a pesky Pitt team at the Carrier Dome on Saturday and have some convinced they're the best team in the land. Lead by the play of freshmen PG Tyler Ennis, the Orange remain undefeated playing a brutal style of ball. While efficient, Syracuse hasn't played a game with more than 60 possessions in ACC play.
THE BIG XII
- Oklahoma went into Baylor and dropped the Bears to 1-3 in conference play. The Sooners have been getting fantastic play from Gonzaga transfer Ryan Spangler. In typical Baylor fashion, the Bears had 9 seconds to tie or take the lead as Oklahoma nearly spit away a 7-pt lead in the final :30. Baylor failed to get a shot off.
- Iowa State dropped its 3rd straight game, losing at Texas. The Longhorns and much-maligned Rick Barnes are quietly off to a 14-4 start. The host K-State on Tuesday. It's not a must win but it would certainly not be a good loss since they have lost at home to Oklahoma already.
- In the game of the day in the conference, Kansas outlasted Oklahoma State at Phog Allen. Kansas appears to be growing up after a sluggish start to the season. Andrew Wiggins disappeared for the final 30 minutes, yet Kansas found a way to win. Other FROSH star, Joel Embiid nearly had a triple double. As you'll hear ad nauseum, Embiid is still learning to play the game but has NBA scouts drooling. As for OSU, injuries have hurt their depth and Marcus Smart finished strong after a no-show start. The Cowboys seem prone to sloppy offensive possessions. They pressured the young Jayhawks into plenty of turnovers but followed up too many of those with poor shots of their own. If that gets cleaned up, they're tough to beat.
The Big East
- Providence served notice last night that despite the loss of so many expected contributors, they'll have something to say about who wins this league. They jumped all over Creighton who fell to 1-1 traveling to the east coast. Bryce Cotton played his 3rd straight game without seeing the bench. The game was never close in the 2nd half. Will the Friars have the legs to do this through the rest of conference play?
- While Providence tries to make themselves a player in the conference, two pre-season favorites, Marquette and Georgetown continue to struggle. The Hoyas lost at home to Seton Hall. The Pirates have been better recently but that's not a game Georgetown should lose. Marquette had a 40-28 lead at Butler with 15:26 left and scored 9 more points in regulation. They averaged .57 ppp in the 2nd half. Rinse, repeat...
The B1G
- Michigan went into Wisconsin and won in Madison for the first time since 1999. The Badgers have dropped two straight and save a Fran Mccaffrey meltdown, should have two home losses in conference. Wisconsin's lack of heft inside and mediocre defense was exposed for the 2nd time in a week. This is Wisconsin's best offensive team in years but they have real concerns on defense. The defensive efficiency numbers are skewed higher than they probably really are due to their pasting of cupcakes. Expect it to be their downfall in March. Still, a Final Four run isn't out of the question.
- Somehow, Northwestern has won 2 straight games with a win over Indiana yesterday. Indiana beat Bucky earlier in the week and pundits hailed the arrival of the young Hooisers. One game in January doesn't define a season one way or the other. There's talent in Bloomington but it's young. Wouldn't get too up or down about either game
Missouri Valley
- The Valley looks to be a one-bid league in 2014 but that one-bid team looks like a Final Four contender. The Shockers waxed a good Indiana State team at home on Saturday. I suspect they'll trip up at either UNI or Indiana State, which are back-to-back games in the beginning of February. If they get through that, they have a legit chance at being undefeated going into Arch Madness.
Pac-12
- The news of the week was the loss of Spencer Dinwiddie to Colorado for the season. It'll be a tough road ahead for the Buffaloes who crushed USC on Saturday.
- California continues to impress in conference play moving to 5-0 with a sweep of the Washington schools over the past week. Cal should be 6-0 going into Pauley next Sunday.
- Utah and Stanford also notched wins this weekend. Utah beat UCLA at home while Stanford won its 3rd straight conference game. Among those wins is a win at Oregon. The depth of the Pac 12 is amongst the best of any league in the land. Arizona will be well-tested heading into March.
SEC
- Kentucky held off Tennessee at Rupp despite getting dominated on the boards. I overrated the Wildcats at the beginning of the season. I don't see a title team here but I do see a team getting better every week. They were sloppy at the end yesterday but you can still see them maturing. Tennessee went at them and the youngsters responded beautifully.
- Arkansas followed up its win at home over Kentucky by losing at Georgia. The Razorbacks are a monster at home, a wimp on the road. And I watched them lose at home to Florida last week where Florida was undermanned. Arkansas will be on the bubble and if they get left out, I'll have a hard time feeling sympathy for such an up-and-down team.
- Louisville and Cincinnati have stamped themselves as the class of the new AAC. Louisville went into UConn and defeated the Huskies on Saturday night while Cincinnati continues to bludgeon its opponents, winning at USF. The Bearcats are 6-0 in conference play and should be 8-0 heading into a matchup at Louisville on January 30th. Cincinnati still has road games with UCOnn and SMU as well.
Memphis, UConn & SMU remain in the mix. I'll remain doubtful of Memphis even with its win at Louisville easrlier this month. Home losses to Cincinnati and UConn are hard to scrub, along with the history of the Tigers.
THE ACC
- Virginia easily handled Florida State at home, sweeping the season series with FSU. They did lose earlier in the week at Duke. Other than that, the Cavs have rolled through the ACC up to this point.
- Duke smoked NC State at home playing like the Duke team you fear. They travel to Pitt and Syracuse in back-to-back games at the end of the month. A split their would go a long way for them. Amile Jefferson has stepped up his play the last few games. His emergence is key
- Syracuse held off a pesky Pitt team at the Carrier Dome on Saturday and have some convinced they're the best team in the land. Lead by the play of freshmen PG Tyler Ennis, the Orange remain undefeated playing a brutal style of ball. While efficient, Syracuse hasn't played a game with more than 60 possessions in ACC play.
THE BIG XII
- Oklahoma went into Baylor and dropped the Bears to 1-3 in conference play. The Sooners have been getting fantastic play from Gonzaga transfer Ryan Spangler. In typical Baylor fashion, the Bears had 9 seconds to tie or take the lead as Oklahoma nearly spit away a 7-pt lead in the final :30. Baylor failed to get a shot off.
- Iowa State dropped its 3rd straight game, losing at Texas. The Longhorns and much-maligned Rick Barnes are quietly off to a 14-4 start. The host K-State on Tuesday. It's not a must win but it would certainly not be a good loss since they have lost at home to Oklahoma already.
- In the game of the day in the conference, Kansas outlasted Oklahoma State at Phog Allen. Kansas appears to be growing up after a sluggish start to the season. Andrew Wiggins disappeared for the final 30 minutes, yet Kansas found a way to win. Other FROSH star, Joel Embiid nearly had a triple double. As you'll hear ad nauseum, Embiid is still learning to play the game but has NBA scouts drooling. As for OSU, injuries have hurt their depth and Marcus Smart finished strong after a no-show start. The Cowboys seem prone to sloppy offensive possessions. They pressured the young Jayhawks into plenty of turnovers but followed up too many of those with poor shots of their own. If that gets cleaned up, they're tough to beat.
The Big East
- Providence served notice last night that despite the loss of so many expected contributors, they'll have something to say about who wins this league. They jumped all over Creighton who fell to 1-1 traveling to the east coast. Bryce Cotton played his 3rd straight game without seeing the bench. The game was never close in the 2nd half. Will the Friars have the legs to do this through the rest of conference play?
- While Providence tries to make themselves a player in the conference, two pre-season favorites, Marquette and Georgetown continue to struggle. The Hoyas lost at home to Seton Hall. The Pirates have been better recently but that's not a game Georgetown should lose. Marquette had a 40-28 lead at Butler with 15:26 left and scored 9 more points in regulation. They averaged .57 ppp in the 2nd half. Rinse, repeat...
The B1G
- Michigan went into Wisconsin and won in Madison for the first time since 1999. The Badgers have dropped two straight and save a Fran Mccaffrey meltdown, should have two home losses in conference. Wisconsin's lack of heft inside and mediocre defense was exposed for the 2nd time in a week. This is Wisconsin's best offensive team in years but they have real concerns on defense. The defensive efficiency numbers are skewed higher than they probably really are due to their pasting of cupcakes. Expect it to be their downfall in March. Still, a Final Four run isn't out of the question.
- Somehow, Northwestern has won 2 straight games with a win over Indiana yesterday. Indiana beat Bucky earlier in the week and pundits hailed the arrival of the young Hooisers. One game in January doesn't define a season one way or the other. There's talent in Bloomington but it's young. Wouldn't get too up or down about either game
Missouri Valley
- The Valley looks to be a one-bid league in 2014 but that one-bid team looks like a Final Four contender. The Shockers waxed a good Indiana State team at home on Saturday. I suspect they'll trip up at either UNI or Indiana State, which are back-to-back games in the beginning of February. If they get through that, they have a legit chance at being undefeated going into Arch Madness.
Pac-12
- The news of the week was the loss of Spencer Dinwiddie to Colorado for the season. It'll be a tough road ahead for the Buffaloes who crushed USC on Saturday.
- California continues to impress in conference play moving to 5-0 with a sweep of the Washington schools over the past week. Cal should be 6-0 going into Pauley next Sunday.
- Utah and Stanford also notched wins this weekend. Utah beat UCLA at home while Stanford won its 3rd straight conference game. Among those wins is a win at Oregon. The depth of the Pac 12 is amongst the best of any league in the land. Arizona will be well-tested heading into March.
SEC
- Kentucky held off Tennessee at Rupp despite getting dominated on the boards. I overrated the Wildcats at the beginning of the season. I don't see a title team here but I do see a team getting better every week. They were sloppy at the end yesterday but you can still see them maturing. Tennessee went at them and the youngsters responded beautifully.
- Arkansas followed up its win at home over Kentucky by losing at Georgia. The Razorbacks are a monster at home, a wimp on the road. And I watched them lose at home to Florida last week where Florida was undermanned. Arkansas will be on the bubble and if they get left out, I'll have a hard time feeling sympathy for such an up-and-down team.
Thursday, January 16, 2014
Halfway Point
We are halfway through the season so now is a good time to revisit our preseason predictions and lay out our second have guesses…
Preseason
Elite Eight
Louisville
VCU
Virginia
Kansas
Oklahoma State
Florida
Duke
Michigan State
Final Four
Oklahoma State
Florida
Duke
Michigan State
Championship
Michigan State over Oklahoma State
5 of the 8 look solid halfway through the season with the outliers being Virginia, VCU, and Duke. I am not ready to rule out Duke for an Elite Eight run but VCU and Virginia look to be out of the running. They are barely hanging on to a bid altogether. The championship still looks possible with Michigan State and Oklahoma State still looming in the 1-2 seed range. If it weren’t for all the Freshman and undefeated teams I think Okie State would be getting more publicity. Better to stay under the radar. Altogether the preseason rankings don’t look to bad.
Second Half
Elite Eight
Wichita State
Wisconsin
Florida
Syracuse
Oklahoma State
Kansas
Arizona
Michigan State
Final Four
Oklahoma State
Arizona
Kansas
Michigan State
Championship
Arizona over Michigan State
Wednesday, January 15, 2014
Big East Revisited
One of the stories worth watching this year was how the new Big East would fare. My concerns were I didn't see a dominant team or one capable of national prominence unless things absolutely broke right. I did believe there was sufficient depth and a possibility at 5-6 teams to make the dance. The first part looks to be true, the second? Doubtful.
The Leaders:
- Creighton: The Bluejays have looked impressive early in Big East play and appear the team to beat. They romped Marquette on New Year's Eve and added a nice win at Xavier this past Sunday. Last night, they ran Butler off the court in an offensive clinic. National POY candidate, Doug McDermott matched Butler with 24 in the 1st half.
I tweeted some incredible offensive numbers last night. Forward Ethan Wragge has become such a weapon for this team paired with McDermott, teams simply have no answer for both of them. Double Doug? Wragge is going to get open and kill you. Entering last night, he had an effective fg% of 71.6% while attempting only 6 2-pt fgs. That's 2nd best in the nation. The term Wragge Bomb will likely terrorize teams the rest of the year.
Creighton has yet to do much travel out east, only venturing to Jersey so far against a woeful Seton Hall team. We'll have to see how they handle that as the season progresses but you may not see a better offensive team in all of college basketball this season.
- Villanova: I wasn't sure what to make of Villanova heading into the season. I certainly liked the pieces but wasn't sure how it would all come together. Well, it's melded quite nicely for Jay Wright. The Wildcats are 3rd in KenPom and are effective on both sides of the ball.
They're getting contributions up and down the lineup with key minutes and play coming from freshan Josh Hart. Despite lacking a lot of size, the Wildcats are effecient on the glass, more than holding their own. They could be a little stronger with the ball but even that isn't a terrible issue for them.
Their only loss has come to Syracuse who happens to be undefeated. They won the Battle for Atlantis beating a green Kansas team but earned it with a nice win over a very good Iowa ball club. After a few middling seasons, Jay Wright has Villanova trending upwards again.
The Disappointments:
- Marquette: I chronicled their misery earlier this month. Since then, play has still been uneven with the backcourt being the primary concern.
- Providence: I pegged Providence as a breakout team this season. Then projected Big Easy Newcomer of the Year Brandon Austin was suspended and subsequently transferred to Oregon. Fellow newcomer Rodney Bullock is still suspended and guard Kris Dunn re-injured his shoulder ending his season.
Coach Ed Cooley can still probably salvage a NIT appearance but a return trip to the NCAAs is not going to happen.
- St. John's: I've been duped by Steve Lavin teams so many times, he could sell me beachfront property in Kansas. I also bought into CBS Sports college hoops scribe Jon Rothstein who continually calls St. John's the 'most talented" team in the Big East. Athetic talent and basketball talent don't always equate. Chances are, I'll buy in next year, too.
--
If the season ends today, it looks like the new Big East gets 4 teams into the NCAA tournament. Villanova, Creighton and Xavier are locks with Georgetown looking pretty healthy. DePaul, Seton Hall, St. John's, Providence & Butler have no chance with Marquette needing a big run.
The league has recruited very well in its first season out of football land. It'll need to continue to do that. The league could also use a villain and bully. In the 80s, that was Big John and Georgetown. The recent was Syracuse. If I've learned anything on social media when it comes to the schools of this conference, primarily the original members, they were unified by one thing, their unabashed hatred for all things Syracuse.
The Big East 2.0 is still finding itself and ordering its basketball hierarchy. It may take a few years for us to figure out who the new bully is and where the new rivalries are. It'll be a fascinating experiment in basketball only schools dedicated to winning
The Leaders:
- Creighton: The Bluejays have looked impressive early in Big East play and appear the team to beat. They romped Marquette on New Year's Eve and added a nice win at Xavier this past Sunday. Last night, they ran Butler off the court in an offensive clinic. National POY candidate, Doug McDermott matched Butler with 24 in the 1st half.
I tweeted some incredible offensive numbers last night. Forward Ethan Wragge has become such a weapon for this team paired with McDermott, teams simply have no answer for both of them. Double Doug? Wragge is going to get open and kill you. Entering last night, he had an effective fg% of 71.6% while attempting only 6 2-pt fgs. That's 2nd best in the nation. The term Wragge Bomb will likely terrorize teams the rest of the year.
Creighton has yet to do much travel out east, only venturing to Jersey so far against a woeful Seton Hall team. We'll have to see how they handle that as the season progresses but you may not see a better offensive team in all of college basketball this season.
- Villanova: I wasn't sure what to make of Villanova heading into the season. I certainly liked the pieces but wasn't sure how it would all come together. Well, it's melded quite nicely for Jay Wright. The Wildcats are 3rd in KenPom and are effective on both sides of the ball.
They're getting contributions up and down the lineup with key minutes and play coming from freshan Josh Hart. Despite lacking a lot of size, the Wildcats are effecient on the glass, more than holding their own. They could be a little stronger with the ball but even that isn't a terrible issue for them.
Their only loss has come to Syracuse who happens to be undefeated. They won the Battle for Atlantis beating a green Kansas team but earned it with a nice win over a very good Iowa ball club. After a few middling seasons, Jay Wright has Villanova trending upwards again.
The Disappointments:
- Marquette: I chronicled their misery earlier this month. Since then, play has still been uneven with the backcourt being the primary concern.
- Providence: I pegged Providence as a breakout team this season. Then projected Big Easy Newcomer of the Year Brandon Austin was suspended and subsequently transferred to Oregon. Fellow newcomer Rodney Bullock is still suspended and guard Kris Dunn re-injured his shoulder ending his season.
Coach Ed Cooley can still probably salvage a NIT appearance but a return trip to the NCAAs is not going to happen.
- St. John's: I've been duped by Steve Lavin teams so many times, he could sell me beachfront property in Kansas. I also bought into CBS Sports college hoops scribe Jon Rothstein who continually calls St. John's the 'most talented" team in the Big East. Athetic talent and basketball talent don't always equate. Chances are, I'll buy in next year, too.
--
If the season ends today, it looks like the new Big East gets 4 teams into the NCAA tournament. Villanova, Creighton and Xavier are locks with Georgetown looking pretty healthy. DePaul, Seton Hall, St. John's, Providence & Butler have no chance with Marquette needing a big run.
The league has recruited very well in its first season out of football land. It'll need to continue to do that. The league could also use a villain and bully. In the 80s, that was Big John and Georgetown. The recent was Syracuse. If I've learned anything on social media when it comes to the schools of this conference, primarily the original members, they were unified by one thing, their unabashed hatred for all things Syracuse.
The Big East 2.0 is still finding itself and ordering its basketball hierarchy. It may take a few years for us to figure out who the new bully is and where the new rivalries are. It'll be a fascinating experiment in basketball only schools dedicated to winning
Monday, January 13, 2014
RPI Notes
With less than 9 weeks left in the regular season let’s take a look at a couple of the under and over achieving teams in the RPI.
Under-Achieving:
Duke – The RPI of 33 isn’t all that bad but a lot of the “experts” had them pegged as a Final Four team. The lack of rebounding and interior defense is starting to show through and Jabari Parker is coming back to earth. There is still time for them to right the ship but it hasn’t looked good lately.
Louisville – RPI of 34. The loss of Chane Benahan is hurting right now and they let one slip away against Memphis this weekend. Russ Smith is still exciting but the supporting cast is not what it used to be. They miss Peyton Siva more than I thought they would.
North Carolina – RPI of 53. We had them pegged as over-rated going into the season and they haven’t even lived up to that. Sure they have a couple HUGE wins but the losses have been baffling and are now starting to pile up. They are barely hanging on to a bid right now
Over-Achieving:
UMass – RPI of 4! Kurly had them pegged before the season as super sleeper and he’s spot on. With only 1 loss, at Florida State, their star is on the rise. This team could be the best mid-major outside of Wichita State
Iowa – RPI of 17. Another sleeper we had listed in the preseason Iowa is starting to look more and more dangerous. Their losses have been at Wisconsin, at Iowa State, and at Villanova. You’d like to see them win one of those but there’s no shame in losing on the road to 3 top 15 teams.
UWGB – RPI of 28. Who would have thought UWGB would have the highest RPI of the low majors? I was shocked myself. They have a baffling loss at Eastern Michigan but the other two were against Wisconsin and Harvard. The win vs Virginia looms large.
San Diego State
This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Aztecs. When you lose Jamaal Franklin and Chase Tapley off a 23 win team that went 9-7 in conference, it doesn't seem likely they'd be better. Yet, that's where we appear headed with this squad.
Lead by the steady hand of veteran head coach Steve Fisher, the Aztecs are 14-1 and 2-0 to start Mountain West play. Their only loss came at the hands of #1 Arizona. They hold wins over Marquette, Creighton & Kansas. A defensive-minded squad, the Aztecs are currently 21st in KenPom.
Let's start with the defense. 10th overall in adjusted defense, SDSU is above average in all four factors. They're 6th in effective fg%, holding opponents to 42.4%. They have a turnover % of 21.3%, 35th best. From 2, teams shoot only 40.7%. That's also 6th best in the land. From beyond the arc, teams shoot 31%. The national average is 34.2%.
Offensively, they are not as strong, 58th overall in adjusted offense. The Aztecs effective fg% is 47.9%, 240th in the land. They're a decent shooting team from deep but weak from 2, shooting 44.8%, 280th overall. Turover% is 16.3%, 63rd best and on the boards, they get misses. Their offensive rebounding % is 36.8%, 42nd best in the land. Only 6.7% of possessions end in steals, 14th best. One number to keep an eye on, they only shoot 66% from the free throw line. They get their at a healthy clip. Improving their would make them even more deadly.
While Franklin & Tapley departed, smooth SR. G, Xavier Thames returned. Thames is the elading scorer for the Aztecs, getting 16.2 ppg. He also shoots 47% from deep. SDSU also has solid forward play from SOPH. Winston Shepard who looks like their next star. Shepard is averaging 13.2 ppg. Josh Davis, JJ O'Brien and Dwayne Polee provide frontcourt depth and plenty of quality minutes. Aqeel Quinn rounds out the backcourt with Thames. Quinn isn't a star but a glue guy who contributes in a number of ways.
The Mountain West was a good conference last season despite the flameout in March. Still, I felt San Diego State was a bit of an underachiever at 9-7 in league play. They had a good shot at making a Sweet 16 after Florida Gulf Coast upset Georgetown but disjointed play by SDSU in the 2nd half oftheir game lead to an opening week departure. The Mountain West isn't as good this year and double digit conference wins should be there for San Diego State. They've shown they can play with anyone, so a Sweet 16 should be a legitimate possibility. Kudos to the job Steve Fisher has done in San Diego. Guy can find talent and coach talent.
Lead by the steady hand of veteran head coach Steve Fisher, the Aztecs are 14-1 and 2-0 to start Mountain West play. Their only loss came at the hands of #1 Arizona. They hold wins over Marquette, Creighton & Kansas. A defensive-minded squad, the Aztecs are currently 21st in KenPom.
Let's start with the defense. 10th overall in adjusted defense, SDSU is above average in all four factors. They're 6th in effective fg%, holding opponents to 42.4%. They have a turnover % of 21.3%, 35th best. From 2, teams shoot only 40.7%. That's also 6th best in the land. From beyond the arc, teams shoot 31%. The national average is 34.2%.
Offensively, they are not as strong, 58th overall in adjusted offense. The Aztecs effective fg% is 47.9%, 240th in the land. They're a decent shooting team from deep but weak from 2, shooting 44.8%, 280th overall. Turover% is 16.3%, 63rd best and on the boards, they get misses. Their offensive rebounding % is 36.8%, 42nd best in the land. Only 6.7% of possessions end in steals, 14th best. One number to keep an eye on, they only shoot 66% from the free throw line. They get their at a healthy clip. Improving their would make them even more deadly.
While Franklin & Tapley departed, smooth SR. G, Xavier Thames returned. Thames is the elading scorer for the Aztecs, getting 16.2 ppg. He also shoots 47% from deep. SDSU also has solid forward play from SOPH. Winston Shepard who looks like their next star. Shepard is averaging 13.2 ppg. Josh Davis, JJ O'Brien and Dwayne Polee provide frontcourt depth and plenty of quality minutes. Aqeel Quinn rounds out the backcourt with Thames. Quinn isn't a star but a glue guy who contributes in a number of ways.
The Mountain West was a good conference last season despite the flameout in March. Still, I felt San Diego State was a bit of an underachiever at 9-7 in league play. They had a good shot at making a Sweet 16 after Florida Gulf Coast upset Georgetown but disjointed play by SDSU in the 2nd half oftheir game lead to an opening week departure. The Mountain West isn't as good this year and double digit conference wins should be there for San Diego State. They've shown they can play with anyone, so a Sweet 16 should be a legitimate possibility. Kudos to the job Steve Fisher has done in San Diego. Guy can find talent and coach talent.
Monday Morning Bracketology
1 seed vs 16 seed
Arizona (P12) vs Southern(SWAC)/Norfolk (MEAC)
Syracuse (ACC) vs Chattanoga(SoCon)/Wagner(NEC)
Wisconsin (B1G) vs Radford (Bsouth)
Michigan State vs Stony Brook (Aest)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Wichita State (MVC) vs N.Colorado (Bsky)
Villanova (Beast) vs IPFW (Summit)
Oklahoma State vs Georgia St (Sbelt)
Florida (SEC) vs UC-Irvine (Bwest)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Kansas (B12) vs Delaware (Colonial)
Kentucky vs Boston (Pat)
Baylor vs Mercer(Asun)
Massachusettes (A10) vs SFA (Sland)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Ohio State vs Akron (MAC)
Iowa State vs Louisiana Tech (Cusa)
Colorado vs Belmont (OVC)
Iowa vs Manhatten (MAAC)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Gonzaga (WCC) vs UW-Green Bay (Horizon)
Cincinnati (AAC) vs New Mexico St (WAC)
San Diego St (MWC) vs LSU/North Carolina
Pittsburgh vs Indiana State/Arizona State
6 seed vs 11 seed
Creighton vs California
Memphis vs George Washington
Louisville vs Minnesota
Duke vs Texas
7 seed vs 10 seed
UCLA vs Illinois
Oregon vs Florida State
New Mexico vs Michigan
Missouri vs Kansas State
8 seed vs 9 seed
Connecticut vs Georgetown
VCU vs Xavier
St. Louis vs Virginia
Oklahoma vs Harvard (Ivy)
First Four Out
Dayton
Toledo
St. Mary's
George Washington
Next Four Out
Stanford
Tennessee
Southern Miss
Indiana
Also Considered
SMU
North Dakota State
BYU
Boise State
Wake Forest
Missouri State
North Carolina St
Mississippi
Maryland
Arkansas
Utah State
Clemson
Texas A&M
UNLV
Monday, January 6, 2014
Pac-12 Rising
After a few dismal seasons, it appears the Pac-12 is trying to reclaim a spot in the best basketball conference argument. They may not be that this season, but they're not that far off and by the end of the year, they may have an argument. Between themselves and the Big 12, there may not be a more entertaining and unpredictable conference all season.
The Big Ten is likely the best conference. They have three teams in the top 5 and another real solid team with a potentially insane coach in Iowa. The middle might be a little softer than we imagined. Michigan is sorting through injury issues and sketchy PG play. Illinois looks better than advertised but are still young while Indiana and Purdue are probably not as good as we may have thought. Does the Pac-12 measure up?
Well, the Pac-12 isn't as top heavy as the B1G. I think Arizona is better than Michigan State, Ohio State & Wisconsin but I don't believe --at this particular moment-- the Pac-12 has another team better than those 3.
In KenPom's Top 50, we see 6 Pac-12 teams rated. Arizona is 2 and then the next team is Oregon at 24. The ratings are fluid, changing nightly with each game played but I'm pretty confident this will be the case for most of the year. Outside looking in are Stanford at 57 and Utah at 68. Utah has played a pretty terrible schedule to this point.
Here's a quick glance at who these teams from KenPom's Top 50 have played and beaten:
- 2. Arizona
Arizona has beaten Duke and UNLV and has a road win at Michigan. Arizona hasn't blown the doors off the competetion and havetrailed a fair amount of games at half but continue to win. Young at spots, the inconsistency within games shouldn't surprise. This is Sean Miller's best team since coming to the desert and are a real title contender.
- 24. Oregon
Oregon was undefeated prior to yesterday's loss at Colorado. The Ducks have played really good basketball this season and have wins over Illinois, Georgetown and Ole Miss. Losing at Colorado is no shame and the Ducks had the lead for a good chunk of the game befofe the Buffs took charge down the stretch.
- 30. Colorado
The Buffaloes are enjoying life in the Pac-12 as they appear headed to a 3rd straight NCAA appearance. The Buffs have only two losses on the season, both to Big 12 opponents, Baylor & Oklahoma State (prior to the suspensions and injuries). They did beat Kansas and Harvard and held home court serves against the Ducks.
- 31. UCLA
Year one under Steve Alford has started well. They lost twice with those losses coming to Missouri and Duke. They haven't beaten anyone of great note but they did beat USC 107-73 on Saturday. USC Coach Andy Enfield spent the off-season taking veiled shots at the Bruins and Steve Alford;s style of basketball. The Bruins responded on the court. Might be an interesting few years between these two.
- 46. California
The Golden Bears continue to play well under coach Montgomery. They stand 10-4 with 4 losses against potential tournament teams. The two that cause fans a bit of worry are to Dayton and UC-Santa Barbara. Obviously, UCSB needs to win the Big West to dance but they'll be among the favorites. Dayton looks solid thus far. It will behoove the Bears to get to 10 wins in conference or get a top-4 finish.
- 47. Arizona State
The Sun Devils could make an argument they have the conference's best player in PG Jahii Carson. That being said, a loss at home last week to Washington wasn't a good loss. The Huskies aren't a bad team, but the Wildcats have to win those type of games at home. They do own wins over UNLV and Marquette. They lost to Creighton which was a whooping and to Miami (FL) which will likely be a bad loss.
Washington, Stanford and Utah will cause some problems through the course of the season as well. Arizona is the favorite and Oregon should finish 2nd but 2-6 will be a battle. The Pac-12 is back.
The Big Ten is likely the best conference. They have three teams in the top 5 and another real solid team with a potentially insane coach in Iowa. The middle might be a little softer than we imagined. Michigan is sorting through injury issues and sketchy PG play. Illinois looks better than advertised but are still young while Indiana and Purdue are probably not as good as we may have thought. Does the Pac-12 measure up?
Well, the Pac-12 isn't as top heavy as the B1G. I think Arizona is better than Michigan State, Ohio State & Wisconsin but I don't believe --at this particular moment-- the Pac-12 has another team better than those 3.
In KenPom's Top 50, we see 6 Pac-12 teams rated. Arizona is 2 and then the next team is Oregon at 24. The ratings are fluid, changing nightly with each game played but I'm pretty confident this will be the case for most of the year. Outside looking in are Stanford at 57 and Utah at 68. Utah has played a pretty terrible schedule to this point.
Here's a quick glance at who these teams from KenPom's Top 50 have played and beaten:
- 2. Arizona
Arizona has beaten Duke and UNLV and has a road win at Michigan. Arizona hasn't blown the doors off the competetion and havetrailed a fair amount of games at half but continue to win. Young at spots, the inconsistency within games shouldn't surprise. This is Sean Miller's best team since coming to the desert and are a real title contender.
- 24. Oregon
Oregon was undefeated prior to yesterday's loss at Colorado. The Ducks have played really good basketball this season and have wins over Illinois, Georgetown and Ole Miss. Losing at Colorado is no shame and the Ducks had the lead for a good chunk of the game befofe the Buffs took charge down the stretch.
- 30. Colorado
The Buffaloes are enjoying life in the Pac-12 as they appear headed to a 3rd straight NCAA appearance. The Buffs have only two losses on the season, both to Big 12 opponents, Baylor & Oklahoma State (prior to the suspensions and injuries). They did beat Kansas and Harvard and held home court serves against the Ducks.
- 31. UCLA
Year one under Steve Alford has started well. They lost twice with those losses coming to Missouri and Duke. They haven't beaten anyone of great note but they did beat USC 107-73 on Saturday. USC Coach Andy Enfield spent the off-season taking veiled shots at the Bruins and Steve Alford;s style of basketball. The Bruins responded on the court. Might be an interesting few years between these two.
- 46. California
The Golden Bears continue to play well under coach Montgomery. They stand 10-4 with 4 losses against potential tournament teams. The two that cause fans a bit of worry are to Dayton and UC-Santa Barbara. Obviously, UCSB needs to win the Big West to dance but they'll be among the favorites. Dayton looks solid thus far. It will behoove the Bears to get to 10 wins in conference or get a top-4 finish.
- 47. Arizona State
The Sun Devils could make an argument they have the conference's best player in PG Jahii Carson. That being said, a loss at home last week to Washington wasn't a good loss. The Huskies aren't a bad team, but the Wildcats have to win those type of games at home. They do own wins over UNLV and Marquette. They lost to Creighton which was a whooping and to Miami (FL) which will likely be a bad loss.
Washington, Stanford and Utah will cause some problems through the course of the season as well. Arizona is the favorite and Oregon should finish 2nd but 2-6 will be a battle. The Pac-12 is back.
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