Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Predicitions Revisted, Two, er, too?

Like Manti Teo's dead girl friend, all my predictions were made up.

I sort of spitball teams at the beginning of the season throwing some against the wall without any rationale thought, sort of like how March Madness can go but of the 8 teams I picked, I'd be confident imagining only 3 of them getting as far as I "predicted".

ELITE 8 ORIGINAL
Kansas
Missouri
Syracuse
UNLV

FINAL FOUR ORIGINAL
Louisville
Kentucky
Indiana
Arizona

ORIGINAL FINAL
Louisville over Kentucky

Missouri has been wildly inconsistent and quite frankly, I have no faith in Frank Haith. I'm still bullish on Syracuse if they get James Southerland back they could still get hot at the right time. I wouldn't rule them out but I'm not confident they can win twice in March, much less 3 times. I am going with the eyeball test on UNLV. The games I've seen show me an undisciplined team that will be fodder for someone in round "2" or "3". In Kansas, I believe.

In Louisville, I believe. In Indiana, I grudgingly believe but they need more from their bench and for Cody Zeller to go from nice player to great player. Keep an eye on Yogi Ferrell. He can't have games like he did last night and shrink against pressure. As for Kentucky, Brian correctly notes they're trending the right way but the eyeball test tells me they're a bubble team that aren't going "to get it." Who is the guy to take over games? Arizona has been real lucky this year and are good enough to make a run but I could just as easily see them losing to a Bucknell.

ELITE 8 REDUX
Gonzaga
Florida
Creighton
Indiana

FINAL FOUR REDUX
Michigan
Louisville
Duke
Kansas

FINAL REDUX
Kansas over Louisville

All 8 of these teams are top 20 KenPom offensive teams and have the best players and talent. That can be argued, of course but Gonzaga and Creighton are more than mid-majors at this moment. Creighton has a POY, maybe the leader, in Doug McDermott and have talent around him. The 'Zags have big man Kelly Olynyk along with solid guard Kevin Pangos, two guys good enough to start anywhere in America. Florida hasn't been as impressive as they were in November and early December but they've had guys in and out. They've also made the last 2 Elite 8's.

I added Duke and Michigan. Duke is incumbent upon Ryan Kelly returning. If he doesn't, c'ya! Reports differ on his return with Seth Davis convinced he won't be back. With him, they can beat anyone. Without him, they need more from Amile Jefferson. The one thing they'll have is plenty of time to get guys into a rotation and figure out a game plan without Kelly and Curry. I stand by Michigan despite defensive deficiencies. Great guard play and I believe John Beilein will fix their defensive issues. Just remember, they shutdown Ohio very well in the second half on Sunday.

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