Final Four Revisited

As we are halfway through the season now is a good time to look back at my preseason’s predictions and tweak them as necessary. To recap here’s my Elite Eight, Final Four, and Championship from November:


Elite Eight:
Duke
UNLV
Louisville
Kentucky

Final Four:
Notre Dame
Indiana
Syracuse
Kansas

Championship Game:
Syracuse over Kansas


The predictions don’t look too bad at the halfway point. Duke is certainly Elite Eight worthy and if Kelly comes back are championship contenders. UNLV has been rocky at times but I still expect a Sweet Sixteen at a minimum. Louisville is #1 right now and possibly the favorite to win it all. Kentucky is the big miss at this point although a lot of their efficiency number have them trending up (their lackluster performance last night not withstanding). At the Final Four level Kansas is right where I predicted them and although Indiana lost last night they are still a top 8-10 team. Syracuse is missing Southland and just don’t look right. As of this morning they look like an Elite Eight team only. Notre Dame was a predicted reach on my part any way and although they are ranked 20th they are nowhere near that when it comes to KenPom and other efficiency measurable. The Irish look like a huge miss on my part.

So, now that we’ve touched on who I picked, let’s get into who I missed on. The biggest mistake looks to be not taking Michigan, however, I’m still not on board with them due to their poor defensive efficiency (39th). Minnesota is another top 10 team that came out of nowhere. I still don’t know what to make of them. Gonzaga is steam rolling everybody and may be a team to keep an eye on. That being said here are my new predictions.


**Note, these are based on Ryan Kelly and Seth Curry coming back for Duke by March.
Elite Eight:
Indiana
Michigan
Arizona
Miami (Jim Larranaga plus great computer numbers)

Final Four:
Louisville
Duke (replace with Indiana if Kelly is out)
Kansas
Gonzaga

Championship Game:
Kansas over Duke (replace with Louisville if Kelly is out)