Let's Look At Some Low-Major Teams

At the end of the regular season there are always 2-3 low to mid-major’s who have a case for an at-large bid after falling in their conference tournament. Let’s look at the top 5 candidates early in conference play. The caveats being that these teams can only come from historically 1 bid leagues (the WCC doesn’t count) and these teams must stay clean for most if not all of their conference play. 1 loss won’t doom them but two might.
1. Belmont: RPI of 29, KenPom of 21. Yes, the darling who almost did to Duke in 2008 what Lehigh did last year as a 15 seed are back. Both RPI and KenPom are almost in the automatic at-large range but with only the OVC conference schedule ahead these are almost sure to take a hit. Only 1 game against Murray State almost seems like a must win. A bubble win against Middle Tennessee State already may break a tie down the stretch.

2. Bucknell: RPI of 29, KenPom of 37. If only they could have beat Mizzou on Saturday. Even with that loss their computer numbers are good but unfortunately there’s no place to go but down with the Patriot league schedule. They do have good wins at Purdue and against George Mason but at this point an undefeated run to the conference championship might be the only way to get an at-large.

3. Murray State: RPI of 29, KenPom of 85. Last year’s darlings don’t quite have the heft they did last year but the RPI still looks good. Good wins over Auburn and St. John’s offset the losses to Dayton and Valparasio. A loss to Colorado is nothing to be ashamed with but a win there would have done wonders. If Belmont and Murray State win all their conference games except their games against each other and then meet in the Conference final I think the Ohio Valley is a two bid league.

4. Middle Tennessee State: RPI of 29, KenPom of 44. A big win over Vanderbilt doesn’t look as good as it sounds and the afore mentioned loss to Belmont will hurt come March. The SunBelt’s RPI isn’t as bad as some so as long as they win all but 1 conference game they should be in a good position come March. They’ll be cheering for Mississippi to come on strong as they own a win over them already.

5. Stephen F. Austin: RPI of 29, KenPom of 66. A team of mystery, nobody is talking about them, yet they only have 1 loss, an 8 point setback against Texas A&M. Good wins are limited to at Oklahoma but right now that’s a huge game. The Southland doesn’t have a ton of competition but they do get Oral Roberts twice while both Northwestern State and McNeese State are top 75 RPI. I think they can afford 1 loss in conference and need to make the Southland Championship game. By that time they’d still need to hold a top 40 RPI. Not sure that’s going to happen
A special shout out goes to Lehigh who has a high RPI of 91 and KenPom of 68. They just lost their best player and leading scorer in the NCAA’s, CJ McCullom, to a broken foot for 8-10 weeks. If they can keep it together and split with Bucknell the NCAA Committee may make a special case for them based on their play with CJ as opposed to without him. This would be dependent on him being healthy for the tournament. It’s a stretch but not impossible.