Thursday, January 3, 2013

My Bad: SEC Edition

Brian was more cool on the SEC at the beginning of the year while I looked at them and saw 3-4 potential Final Four teams. Brian was right and I was wrong. As we enter conference play, we see 1 team with Final Four potential in Florida while Kentucky, Tennessee & Missouri find themselves with as many questions as answers. The middle of the conference - Ole Miss, Arkansas, Alabama, LSU & Texas A&M all look like NIT or worse at this point. Let's take a closer look at what the non-coference schedule has brought us.

THE RANKINGS:

The conference RPI is currently 8th behind the B1G, BEast, MWC, ACC, Pac-12, Big 12 & A-10.

RPI BY SCHOOL
16. Florida
34. Missouri
51. Ole Miss
54. Tennessee
58. LSU
61. Texas A&M
62. Kentucky
78. Alabama
89. Arkansas
159. Vandy
219. Georgia
231. South Carolina
238. Auburn
262. Mississippi State

KenPom
4. Florida
8. Kentucky
21. Missouri
30. Ole Miss
65. Tennessee
74. Alabama
78. Arkansas
99. LSU
117. Texas A&M
132. Georgia
134. Vanderbilt
156. Auburn
202. South Carolina
247. Mississippi State

Where would the SEC be without Texas A&M and Missouri this year? Maybe a two bid league.

THE RESULTS - GOOD, BAD & UGLY

GOOD WINS
Florida over Wisconsin,FSU & Marquette - And these wins aren't that good now as they were at the time as Wisconsin & Marquette are curently finding themselves as bubble teams and who knows what to make of FSU.

Auburn over FSU

Missouri over Stanford, Illinois, VCU

Tennessee over Wichita State

Kentucky over Maryland

That's not exactly an impressive collection of victories.

BAD LOSSES
Georgia to Youngstown State & Iona

Mississippi State to Alabama A&M - MSU may be the worst team in all the BCS conferences but a loss to a SWAC team is still a loss to a SWAC team

South Carolina to Elon

Auburn to Winthrop & Rhode Island

Alabama to Mercer & Tulane - Tulane is 11-3 but has a 131 RPI

Ole Miss to Middle Tennessee & Indiana State - ISU is 28th in RPI but not expected to be a serious contender in the Valley

Vanderbilt to Marist & Middle Tennessee - MTSU is 41st in RPI. But again, they're in the Sun Belt, SEC teams should beat the Sun Belt

Texas A&M to Southern - Another SWAC loss

That's a collection of bad losses

UGLY LOSSES

Georgetown 37 Tennessee 36
Virginia 46 Tennessee 38

The Ugliest?

Marist 50 Vanderbilt 33

The outlier is Kentucky. Kentucky's best win is over Maryland but every other key game has been a loss for them. They set the bar so ridiculously high last year playing freshmen it's impossible for them to match that level, probably ever. The press seems to think they'll be a team to watch in March and KenPom likes them so there's certainly a chance they could be. But as of today, they're just another team.

Finally, Tennessee is probably better than they've shown. They've been missing Jeronne Maymon. Even still, the SEC is having a struggle thus far.

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