Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Predicting the SEC

From the ACC to the SEC the whirlwind of Conference breakdowns continue.

NATIONAL TITLE CONTENDER – Kentucky: The Wildcats look poised to be a #1 seed come Selection Sunday with the probability of only losing 1 more time all year (if that). Currently sitting at 17-1 Kentucky’s lone loss came at Indiana on a last second 3 pointer. There have been other small bumps in the road along the way, most glaring the 1st half debacle against Arkansas Little Rock. As bad as that game was at half though, Kentucky won by 20. Right now Kentucky stands as 1B behind Syracuse’s 1A as it pertains to National Title Dreams.

FINAL FOUR CONTENDER – Vanderbilt: A slow start has lulled the media to sleep on the Commodore 64’s. 4 losses and an RPI of 30 has many people ranking Vandy behind Florida but a large portion of that slow start can be attributed to Festus Ezeli early season absence (7-0, L7). SOS of 19 shows they’ve played a tough enough schedule to make a solid run come March. Don’t sleep on Vandy this year.

TOP SEED RIPE FOR AN UPSET – Florida: Currently slotted as 3 seed I can see Vanderbilt and Florida flip-flopping come March. Florida has a ton of talent but they are all under 6 foot 3. A strength of schedule of 140 isn’t anything worth writing home about either. If the Gators get a tough matchup as a 5 or 6 seed I can see a 1st round exit in their future.

LIKELY DANCING – Alabama: a non-descript team the Crimson Tide are greatly helped by their computer numbers. All 4 loses have come against teams currently in my bracket (Dayton, Georgetown, Kansas State, and Mississippi State) contributing to a top 20 RPI. I think their ceiling is low with a 6 or 7 seed most likely at this point

Mississippi State: The toughest team in the SEC to figure out, I could see the Bulldogs making an Elite Eight run out of a 8 or 9 seed or completely getting crushed in the first round. Arnett Moultrie has been a beast since transferring from UTEP but I think the season rests on the maturity of Renardo Sidney and ball handling of Dee Bost. If those two put it together at the right time this is a dangerous team. If not welcome to an early exit.

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN – Arkansas, LSU, and Ole Miss. These three can be lumped in together. Average SOS and RPI for all 3 I believe they all get eaten up by the 5 teams listed above. At this point the SEC is a 5 bid league and I don’t think any other team has the strength to climb up into the bracket.

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