In his latest projections, Brian has Creighton as a 3 seed. Sitting at 20-2, they have a RPI of 15 and their SOS is 105. Thus far, their best win is at San Diego State. The two losses were at St. Joe's and against a middling Missouri State team. They should have a gaudy record come tourney time and lead by POY candidate Doug McDermott, they'll be a trendy pick.
Creighton's game is based around its offense and its ability to hit the three. 6th in AdjO, they are #1 in Effective FG% (FG + .5*3/FGA), 1st in the nation in 3PT. FG%, 8th in 3PT made pg and shooting a nice 51.4% overall. The 'Jays also pass the rock well. They're 2nd in the nation in A/FGM and turn the ball over less than the national average. They're slightly below average in offensive rebounding % and in getting to the line, so if the three isn't falling, how will they cope? We'll get to that.
As for the other side of the ball, they're an average defensive team. 120th in AdjD and 197th in scoring defense. They don't block shots (282nd in nation). They also don't force turnovers as they're 329th in turnover % and are -1.5 in turnover margin. Give them this, they board on d better than on o as opponents only get 27.5%of available misses, bettering the national average of 32.4%. FWIW, they are 36th in rebound margin.
That's all nice and well. The key to Creighton is National POY candidate Soph. F Doug McDermott, son of head coach Greg McDermott. McDermott the younger is averaging 23.5 ppg shooting 61% overall, 50% from beyond the arc. He does have more turnovers than assists. But he's a special player and special players from mid-majors make a splash in March. For Creighton to get to the second weekend and beyond, they'll ride McDermott and an explosive offense.
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