Monday, January 16, 2012

ACC *GACK*

Taking a look a Brian's bracket, it's shaping up as another sorry season for the ACC. Before the B1G-ACC challenge, we addressed some of the reasons but let's look at what may happen and what needs to happen as the conference heads towards March.

NATIONAL TITLE CONTENDER - North Carolina: The Tar Heels took a stomping at FSU on Saturday. On one hand, the Seminoles were on fire, hitting everything. On the other hand, UNC's defense was non-existent, they didn't get back and looked generally disinterested. Only one team since 1979 took a beating like they did and went on to win a national title, the 1993 Tar Heels. They're still a legit threat but one wonders if they aren't capable of another outing like this one should they face adversity against a talented team in March.

FINAL FOUR CONTENDER - Duke: They could still move up a notch heading into March and it wouldn't surprise me if they won the ACC but they still look like a team searching for an identity.

LIKELY DANCING - Florida State: The Seminoles had their "statement" game on Saturday. Now, the question, can they build on it or as has been a popular phrase in the last 24 hours, was that a fart in the wind? A SOS of 12 and a RPI at 48 helps but that home loss to Princeton makes you wonder if they're just inconsistent enough to land on the bubble. If they get to 10 wins in conference, they should be in.

Virginia: At this time, two years ago, Virginia seemed like a team on the rise and then roster trouble ended that hope. That won't happen again. Tony Bennett finding success isn't a surprise. They have only two losses, a hard fought 3 point loss at Duke and a neutral court loss to TCU. Their best wins are against Michigan at home and Oregon on the road. Both sit at 26 and 51 in RPI with Virginia at 36. barring an indifferent performance in conference, they'll be the proverbial team you don't want to see in the tournament.

BUBBLING - NC State: Kudos to Mark Gottfried for getting them to this spot. 29 SOS and 57 RPI are okay numbers. They need to protect the home court, though. That loss to Georgia Tech could haunt them.

OUTSIDE AND DREAMING - Maryland: I don't think Brian has them in the considered column but they are 12-4 and 9-1 in their last ten. 117 SOS and 85 RPI are blah with their best win over Iona (RPI 35). They do have a neutral court win over Notre Dame. Mark Turgeon may not be the most glamorous coach in the land but his A&M teams made the dance yearly and that's no easy feat.

Miami, FL - Better numbers than Maryland, 26 SOS and 60 RPI. They have 6 losses but all are to top 55 RPI squads. Good losses but they don't have a good win per se with a victory over UMass being their best victory. Short of 10 ACC wins and I doubt they get in.

Clemson - Yeah, 150 SOS, 167 RPI...Maybe they get to host a NIT game.

Virginia Tech - Losing their first three ACC games doesn't bode well for the Hokies. 71 SOS and 82 RPI but no good wins. Their two best wins are over Norfolk State (77) and St. Bonaventure (93). One of their three losses are at Boston College. Not good. They'll need 10 wins for sure in conference. Good luck.

Wake Forest - I throw Wake on here simply because they're 10-7 (2-1) and have a 65 SOS and RPI of 102. Not flashy or good, I suppose but I just like typing Jeff Bzdelik. They lost by 28 to ASU (prior to that team getting decimated) and at home to Wofford and Richmond. Granted, those are two perennial tourney teams but home losses nonetheless. As of today, their best win is over a weak Virginia Tech team.

What do we have here? A lot of mediocrity with potential for a dubious March.

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