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Re: you can't be serious.

Noooooo!!!-YESSSSSS!!!!!!

Michigan State-Illinois Instant Reaction

Pure, garbage basketball. A viewing root canal.

Creighton Sans Benoit

In his latest projections, Brian has Creighton as a 3 seed. Sitting at 20-2, they have a RPI of 15 and their SOS is 105. Thus far, their best win is at San Diego State. The two losses were at St. Joe's and against a middling Missouri State team. They should have a gaudy record come tourney time and lead by POY candidate Doug McDermott, they'll be a trendy pick.

Creighton's game is based around its offense and its ability to hit the three. 6th in AdjO, they are #1 in Effective FG% (FG + .5*3/FGA), 1st in the nation in 3PT. FG%, 8th in 3PT made pg and shooting a nice 51.4% overall. The 'Jays also pass the rock well. They're 2nd in the nation in A/FGM and turn the ball over less than the national average. They're slightly below average in offensive rebounding % and in getting to the line, so if the three isn't falling, how will they cope? We'll get to that.

As for the other side of the ball, they're an average defensive team. 120th in AdjD and 197th in scoring defense. They don't block shots (282nd in nation). They also don't force turnovers as they're 329th in turnover % and are -1.5 in turnover margin. Give them this, they board on d better than on o as opponents only get 27.5%of available misses, bettering the national average of 32.4%. FWIW, they are 36th in rebound margin.

That's all nice and well. The key to Creighton is National POY candidate Soph. F Doug McDermott, son of head coach Greg McDermott. McDermott the younger is averaging 23.5 ppg shooting 61% overall, 50% from beyond the arc. He does have more turnovers than assists. But he's a special player and special players from mid-majors make a splash in March. For Creighton to get to the second weekend and beyond, they'll ride McDermott and an explosive offense.

March Madness Memories - You Can't Be Serious

2012's First Sponsorship

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Monday Morning Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed
Kentucky (SEC) vs L.Island(NEC)/MissValley(SWAC)
Ohio State (B1G) vs Stony Brook(Aeast)/Tex-Arlington
Syracuse (Beast) vs UNC-Ashville (Bsouth)
Duke (ACC) vs Norfolk State
2 seed vs 15 seed
North Carolina vs Weber St (BigSky)
Kansas (Big12) vs George Mason (CAA)
Michigan State vs Belmont (Asun)
Missouri vs Bucknell (Patriot)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Baylor vs Nevada (WAC)
Marquette vs Cleveland State (Horizon)
Creighton (MVC) vs Akron (MAC)
Vanderbilt vs Davidson (SoCon)
4 seed vs 13 seed
UNLV (Mwest) vs Oral Roberts (Summit)
Florida vs MidTennState (Sbelt)
Wisconsin vs Massachusettes (A10)
St. Mary's (WCC) vs Iona (MAAC)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Georgetown vs Long Beach State (Bwest)
Indiana vs Colorado State/VCU
Kansas State vs St. Louis/Cincinnati
Murray State (OVC) vs Dayton
6 seed vs 11 seed
West Virginia vs Minnesota
San Diego St vs Xavier
Michigan vs Iowa State
Gonzaga vs Purdue
7 seed vs 10 seed
Florida State vs Notre Dame
Connecticut vs New Mexico
Virginia vs Harvard (Ivy)
Louisville vs Southern Miss (Cusa)
8 seed vs 9 seed
Mississippi State vs Temple
California (Pac12) vs Southern Miss (Cusa)
Wichita State vs Alabama
Seton Hall vs Memphis

First Four Out
Texas
North Carolina State
Mississippi
BYU
Next Four Out
LaSalle
Northwestern
Marshall
Oregon
Also Considered
Miami
Arkansas
St. Joseph's
Northern Iowa
Oklahoma
South Florida
Central Florida
Washington
Ohio
Pittsburgh
LSU
Wyoming
Missouri State
Colorado
Virgina Tech
Stanford
St. Bonaventure
Drexel
Denver
Arizona
New Mexico State
Maryland

Saturday Afternoon Musings

- Good win for Marquette. But at some point, it'd be nice to start some game without being down by double digits before the first TV timeout. DJO took over today.

- I am a Baylor non-believer. They beat Texas today but if Texas hits their freebies, Baylor has another Saturday loss. How can Texas get that many second chance looks against that front line?

- Syracuse got an ugly win today thanks to some shoddy officiating. Bit of a Fab Melo malaise still but give them credit. They are 2-1 without him with two gritty wins over Cincinnati and West Virginia.

- Iowa State and the Mayor gets that signature win by defeating a sluggish Kansas team. Iowa State is a program on the rise.

He's Back

A year later than expected, the St. Louis Billikens are bullying their way back to the Big Dance. An efficiency machine, the Billikens are 13th overall in KenPom thanks to a 26th AdjO and 11th AdjD. The efficiency is on offense with an emphasis on defense.

The defense is very good with a chance to be great. They're 7th in scoring defense and are strong on stopping teams beyond the arc. They're weaker inside and foul too much, sending teams to the line more often than most. They make up for it by giving away less second opportunities on rebounds and force turnovers on 24.7% of opponent possessions.

Offensively, they're, well, efficient. They don't turn the ball over and make three pointers, 29th in the nation. They don't get to the line a lot and are weak on the boards offensively but their possessions are typically productive if not glamorous. Think old school Wisconsin, so there is potential for ugly.

St. Louis has a SOS of 105 and a RPI of 42. At 15-4, 3 of their 4 losses are to top 50 RPI teams. The only home loss is to Temple, a likely tourney team. St. Louis also poached a nice win at reeling Xavier the other night. Brian has them as an 11 seed and I think they might move up but as a potential second round matchup for a 2 or 3, they'll be a difficult matchup, especially with only 2 days between games. They will be a team to watch as a surprise Sweet 16 participant depending on matchups as they could really frustrate some younger teams that are sloppy with the ball or trigger happy. Good job, fat Rick Majerus. You're a disgusting man but a heckuva coach.

Final Four Revisited

At the start of the season I nominated the following teams as my Final four picks. Let’s see how we’re doing so far.

Duke: Of course I took them, what did you expect? They have a gaudy record but the numbers behind the scenes aren' as glamorous, just 87th in defensive efficiency. Last night’s game showed me something though as they still won shooting horrendously from behind the arc. Is Mason Plumlee coming into his own or was last night a fluke. This is the difference between a Final Four run or a Sweet Sixteen elimination

Kentucky: Looked good on paper and looks good during the season. Terrence Jones has been a no-show all year but this team is loaded with talent. Preseason I had them as 1 of 2 possible champions and I’m sticking with it so far. The other possible champion….

Syracuse: 1A to Kentucky’s 1B, I loved them leading up to the season and nothing has changed. I thought the Bernie Fine scandal might be a distraction but they seemed to have moved on and forgot all about it. A recent bump against Notre Dame is a non-factor and as long as Fab Melo comes back I’m penciling them in for another Final Four run.

UCLA: And Boom goes the Dynamite. This team was a disaster from the get go. Losing to Loyola Marymount and booting Reeves Nelson, their best player, off the team it has been one mistake after another. Not only is this team not going to the final four, they might not even be going to the NIT. Is Ben Howland’s job safe?

My other 4 preseason Elite Eight teams were North Carolina, Ohio State, Louisville, and Michigan. Louisville is a reach but the other 3 are still in it.

March Madness Memories - The Fro

Team Spotlight - Marquette

Today let’s take a look at everybody’s favorite Gold standard school , Marquette. Currently ranked #17 by the AP, this season has been surprisingly different than the past 5-6. Usually Marquette has approximately the same record as this year at 17-4 but this year’s squad is actually supported by their computer number. Sitting comfortably with an RPI of 13 they are greatly helped by their SOS which is hovering around 25. In years’ past this number has been around 150 at this point and normally drags down their RPI into 60+ bubble range. Not this year though.
Marquette’s 4 losses have come against teams ranked in the RPI 100 with the lowest being at #71 LSU. The other three losses, vs Vandy, @ Georgetown, and @ Syracuse are all understandable. Their upcoming schedule only features two ranked teams, @ UConn, and vs Georgetown. With 6 road games sprinkled in I can see them only losing 2 more games the rest of the regular season. If this holds true the Warriors look to go into the Big East tournament at a very healthy 25-6 with a 3 seed in the NCAA bracket. Outside of 1st round Big East loss that 3 seed is most likely for this squad although a 2 seed can be had with a decent Big East tournament showing.
I never thought I would say this about a Buzz Williams led Warrior team but things are looking up and they may be dangerous come March.

Tuesday Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed
Kentucky (SEC) vs L.Island(NEC)/MissValley(SWAC)
Ohio State (B1G) vs Boston(Aeast)/Tex-Arlington
Syracuse (Beast) vs UNC-Ashville (Bsouth)
Kansas (Big12) vs Norfolk State
2 seed vs 15 seed
Missouri vs Weber St (BigSky)
North Carolina vs George Mason (CAA)
Duke (ACC) vs Belmont (Asun)
Michigan State vs Bucknell (Patriot)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Georgetown vs Nevada (WAC)
Baylor vs Cleveland State (Horizon)
Marquette vs Akron (MAC)
Creighton (MVC) vs MidTennState (Sbelt)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Vanderbilt vs Oral Roberts (Summit)
Wisconsin vs Davidson (SoCon)
Florida vs Long Beach State (Bwest)
Connecticut vs New Mexico State
5 seed vs 12 seed
St. Mary's (WCC) vs Oregon/Minnesota
Indiana vs Central Florida (Cusa)
UNLV vs Cincinnati/Colorado State
Kansas State vs Dayton (A10)
6 seed vs 11 seed
San Diego St (Mwest) vs Xavier
Murray State (OVC) vs St. Louis
Michigan vs Iowa State
West Virginia vs North Carolina State
7 seed vs 10 seed
Seton Hall vs Harvard (Ivy)
Illinois vs New Mexico
Gonzaga vs California (Pac12)
Wichita State vs Temple
8 seed vs 9 seed
Florida State vs Southern Miss
Virginia vs Purdue
Louisville vs Memphis
Mississippi State vs Alabama

First Four Out
Mississippi
Texas
BYU
Marshall
Next Four Out
VCU
Colorado
Northwestern
Notre Dame
Also Considered
Northern Iowa
Arkansas
St. Joseph's
Massachusettes
Miami
South Dakota State
Virgina Tech
Oklahoma
LSU
South Florida
LaSalle
Arizona
Denver
Stanford
Ohio
Missouri State
Washington
Wyoming
New Mexico State
Wagner
Pittsburgh
Maryland
Drexel

RIP Jim Irwin

One of the cherished memories of being a sports fan

Mississippi State

After 12 hours of college basketball yesterday (I was actually productive while doing it, remarkably enough) I think the thing that impressed me most was the win Mississippi State picked up at Vandy, one of the nation's hotter teams. Though they have 2 losses on the road in conference, they're probably the 2nd best team in the SEC right now. At 16-4, their only losses are against top 67 RPI teams, including a loss to the Zips of Akron and a neutral court loss to Baylor by two points. Their best win is against West Virginia and last night. The RPI is 39.

Ranked 57th overall by KenPom, they seem like just another team but the more I looked at them, the more upside I saw. They protect the ball with only 17% of possessions ending in TO, 3 less than the national average and good for 23rd overall. Though 112th in AdjD, they do things well on defense. They don't foul, only averaging 14 per game. They also protect the glass. The national average for offensive rebounding % is 32. MSU is only giving up 28%, so second shot points are limited. Their one flaw on defense is they don't force a lot of turnovers. They're also a little soft in the paint. They also don't get to the line enough, averaging about 18 throws a game, below the national average.

The two most productive players have been 6' 11" SOPH F Arnett Moultrie who averages 16.1 ppg and 11 boards per game, 8th in the nation. JR. G Dee Bost averages 16 ppg. The most talented player is JR. Renardo Sidney who shows flashes of brilliance but hasn't lived up to the hype he had coming out of high school. One of the reasons they're soft in the paint is because he's not a good help defender and Vanderbilt consistently blew by him to the rim. MSU can be dangerous if he plays better.

This is a good team capable of a Sweet 16 run.

Saturday afternoon musings

- Florida State just ended Duke's 45-game home winning streak in a wildly entertaining game. No reason for Duke to hang their heads, though. Florida State can win the ACC.

- Jarnell Stokes is a monster for Tennessee and he's only played 3 games.

- West Virginia wins at home against Cincinnati. Who's the second best team in the BEAST? I type that as Notre Dame is clowning Syracuse, albeit early.

- Almost forgot, Mizzou goes into Baylor and wins by a point though this game didn't seem that close. Baylor is loaded with NBA prospects but Mizzou was much more impressive. Only one player taller than 6'8" and it seemed like they were scoring at will in the paint and had little rebounding issues. Helps that Phil Pressey is a defender like his old man.

More Early Saturday musings

- Georgetown and Rutgers played one of the worst games of the year but Georgetown escapes with the win. Rutgers is going to upset some teams down the road. And it'll be ugly.

- Kentucky survived a hot-shooting Alabama team in the kind of game announcers like to call "character builders". Don't know about that but if should be a coaching moment. Kentucky did alot of dumb things in the final minutes that make coaches age faster. Quick shots, dumb fouls.

- Fab Melo of Syracuse will miss the next two games at Notre Dame and Cincinnati. ESPN is reporting academic reasons. Probably as good as any other time for them to get that first loss. Incredible insight, dontcha think?

March Madness Memories - Parking Lot

I'm still amazed at how deep that three was...

Great article on former Iowa star Chris Street

It was 19 years ago today when he passed away.

Steve Fisher Can Coach

Last night, while Indiana was inexplicably losing to Nebraska, San Diego State went into new Meixco and won a big road game in the Mountain West bringing their record to 16-2 overall. The only two losses for Fisher's team thus far have been a road loss to Baylor and a home court loss to Creighton, two teams that will have a realistic shot at the second weekend in March.

Last year's team was largely known for a defensive prowess and this year's team is no different. Though they give up a few more points per game, they are scoring more and actually holding opponents to a lower FG%. So, despite giving up 3 more pg, they're scoring 3 more pg. The one thing that has repeated itself this year is, they don't foul. They're 9th in the nation in fouls averaging only 14.9 p.g, roughly the same as 2011. The national average for offensive possessions ending in a free throw attempt is 36.6%. SDSU only has 25% of its defensive trips end up with free shots. Couple that with their other defensive numbers and you get an idea why they are right back at the top of the Mountain West. The other numbers don't jump out at you but this is steady, efficient team whose confidence should only be growing.

This team is led by a three-headed monster at the guard position. JR. Chase Tapley leads the way scoring 16.7ppg on 50% shooting. The other two guards are sophomores Jamaal Franklin and Xavier Thomas (A Washington St. transfer). Franklin is the other scorer while Thomas is the PG. In their closer games, Thomas has been sloppy with the ball but when he protects it, they win handidly. He has 79 dimes and 40 TOs. If he gets better, SDSU should have a chance in any game.

UNLV was the flavor of the month in December but the Mountain West lead dog might just end up being the Aztecs.

Indiana Hoosiers

One of the biggest stories of the year has been the rise of the Indiana Hoosiers. After suffering a road loss to Nebraska this evening let's take a longer look at the early season darlings. Crean's team vaulted out to a 12-0 start including handing Kentucky their only loss of the season on a last second three pointer. After dropping a road game at Michigan State the Hoosiers rebounded with 3 straight wins including one over Ohio State. However, since then they've dropped 3 games to Minnesota, Ohio State, and now Nebraska. Considering the hot start 3-4 is not where Indiana wanted to be 7 games into the conference season. Their schedule doesn't get much easier with road games at Wisconsin, Michigan, Purdue, Iowa, and Minnesota while Michigan State, Purdue, and Illinois visit them. It is not outside the realm of possibility that they finish below .500 in conference. As of the last bracket Indiana is listed as a 4 seed. When all is said and done I'm projecting them as a very vunerable 6 or 7 seed.

Predicting the SEC

From the ACC to the SEC the whirlwind of Conference breakdowns continue.

NATIONAL TITLE CONTENDER – Kentucky: The Wildcats look poised to be a #1 seed come Selection Sunday with the probability of only losing 1 more time all year (if that). Currently sitting at 17-1 Kentucky’s lone loss came at Indiana on a last second 3 pointer. There have been other small bumps in the road along the way, most glaring the 1st half debacle against Arkansas Little Rock. As bad as that game was at half though, Kentucky won by 20. Right now Kentucky stands as 1B behind Syracuse’s 1A as it pertains to National Title Dreams.

FINAL FOUR CONTENDER – Vanderbilt: A slow start has lulled the media to sleep on the Commodore 64’s. 4 losses and an RPI of 30 has many people ranking Vandy behind Florida but a large portion of that slow start can be attributed to Festus Ezeli early season absence (7-0, L7). SOS of 19 shows they’ve played a tough enough schedule to make a solid run come March. Don’t sleep on Vandy this year.

TOP SEED RIPE FOR AN UPSET – Florida: Currently slotted as 3 seed I can see Vanderbilt and Florida flip-flopping come March. Florida has a ton of talent but they are all under 6 foot 3. A strength of schedule of 140 isn’t anything worth writing home about either. If the Gators get a tough matchup as a 5 or 6 seed I can see a 1st round exit in their future.

LIKELY DANCING – Alabama: a non-descript team the Crimson Tide are greatly helped by their computer numbers. All 4 loses have come against teams currently in my bracket (Dayton, Georgetown, Kansas State, and Mississippi State) contributing to a top 20 RPI. I think their ceiling is low with a 6 or 7 seed most likely at this point

Mississippi State: The toughest team in the SEC to figure out, I could see the Bulldogs making an Elite Eight run out of a 8 or 9 seed or completely getting crushed in the first round. Arnett Moultrie has been a beast since transferring from UTEP but I think the season rests on the maturity of Renardo Sidney and ball handling of Dee Bost. If those two put it together at the right time this is a dangerous team. If not welcome to an early exit.

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN – Arkansas, LSU, and Ole Miss. These three can be lumped in together. Average SOS and RPI for all 3 I believe they all get eaten up by the 5 teams listed above. At this point the SEC is a 5 bid league and I don’t think any other team has the strength to climb up into the bracket.

ACC *GACK*

Taking a look a Brian's bracket, it's shaping up as another sorry season for the ACC. Before the B1G-ACC challenge, we addressed some of the reasons but let's look at what may happen and what needs to happen as the conference heads towards March.

NATIONAL TITLE CONTENDER - North Carolina: The Tar Heels took a stomping at FSU on Saturday. On one hand, the Seminoles were on fire, hitting everything. On the other hand, UNC's defense was non-existent, they didn't get back and looked generally disinterested. Only one team since 1979 took a beating like they did and went on to win a national title, the 1993 Tar Heels. They're still a legit threat but one wonders if they aren't capable of another outing like this one should they face adversity against a talented team in March.

FINAL FOUR CONTENDER - Duke: They could still move up a notch heading into March and it wouldn't surprise me if they won the ACC but they still look like a team searching for an identity.

LIKELY DANCING - Florida State: The Seminoles had their "statement" game on Saturday. Now, the question, can they build on it or as has been a popular phrase in the last 24 hours, was that a fart in the wind? A SOS of 12 and a RPI at 48 helps but that home loss to Princeton makes you wonder if they're just inconsistent enough to land on the bubble. If they get to 10 wins in conference, they should be in.

Virginia: At this time, two years ago, Virginia seemed like a team on the rise and then roster trouble ended that hope. That won't happen again. Tony Bennett finding success isn't a surprise. They have only two losses, a hard fought 3 point loss at Duke and a neutral court loss to TCU. Their best wins are against Michigan at home and Oregon on the road. Both sit at 26 and 51 in RPI with Virginia at 36. barring an indifferent performance in conference, they'll be the proverbial team you don't want to see in the tournament.

BUBBLING - NC State: Kudos to Mark Gottfried for getting them to this spot. 29 SOS and 57 RPI are okay numbers. They need to protect the home court, though. That loss to Georgia Tech could haunt them.

OUTSIDE AND DREAMING - Maryland: I don't think Brian has them in the considered column but they are 12-4 and 9-1 in their last ten. 117 SOS and 85 RPI are blah with their best win over Iona (RPI 35). They do have a neutral court win over Notre Dame. Mark Turgeon may not be the most glamorous coach in the land but his A&M teams made the dance yearly and that's no easy feat.

Miami, FL - Better numbers than Maryland, 26 SOS and 60 RPI. They have 6 losses but all are to top 55 RPI squads. Good losses but they don't have a good win per se with a victory over UMass being their best victory. Short of 10 ACC wins and I doubt they get in.

Clemson - Yeah, 150 SOS, 167 RPI...Maybe they get to host a NIT game.

Virginia Tech - Losing their first three ACC games doesn't bode well for the Hokies. 71 SOS and 82 RPI but no good wins. Their two best wins are over Norfolk State (77) and St. Bonaventure (93). One of their three losses are at Boston College. Not good. They'll need 10 wins for sure in conference. Good luck.

Wake Forest - I throw Wake on here simply because they're 10-7 (2-1) and have a 65 SOS and RPI of 102. Not flashy or good, I suppose but I just like typing Jeff Bzdelik. They lost by 28 to ASU (prior to that team getting decimated) and at home to Wofford and Richmond. Granted, those are two perennial tourney teams but home losses nonetheless. As of today, their best win is over a weak Virginia Tech team.

What do we have here? A lot of mediocrity with potential for a dubious March.

Monday Afternoon Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed
Syracuse (Beast) vs L.Island(NEC)/MissValley(SWAC)
Kentucky (SEC) vs StonyBrook(Aeast)/NorfolkSt (MEAC)
Baylor (Big12) vs UNC-Ashville (Bsouth)
Ohio State vs Bucknell (Patriot)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Kansas vs Weber St (BigSky)
Missouri vs Milwaukee (Horizon)
Duke (ACC) vs Texas-Arlington (Sland)
North Carolina vs Nevada (WAC)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Michigan State (B10) vs George Mason (CAA)
Florida vs Davidson (SoCon)
Georgetown vs Akron (MAC)
Connecticut vs MidTennState (Sbelt)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Vanderbilt vs Oral Roberts (Summit)
Indiana vs Iona (MAAC)
Marquette vs Long Beach State (Bwest)
Creighton (MVC) vs Dayton (A10)
5 seed vs 12 seed
St. Mary's (WCC) vs NC State/Xavier
Wisconsin vs Northwestern
Illinois vs Temple/VCU
UNLV vs Marshall (Cusa)
6 seed vs 11 seed
Michigan vs Texas
Kansas State vs Cincinnati
Seton Hall vs Belmont (Asun)
Alabama vs Harvard (Ivy)
7 seed vs 10 seed
New Mexico (Mwest) vs Memphis
Murray State (OVC) vs Florida State
Mississippi State vs St. Louis
Virginia vs BYU
8 seed vs 9 seed
Louisville vs Purdue
Gonzaga vs Stanford (Pac12)
West Virginia vs Wichita State
Califonia vs San Diego State

First Four Out
Minnesota
Iowa State
Arizona
Notre Dame
Next Four Out
Washington
UCLA
Southern Miss
Virgina Tech
Also Considered
Oklahoma
Oregon
Miami
Clemson
Central Florida
Oregon State
Drexel
Kent State
Ohio
Georgia State
LSU
Arkansas
LaSalle
Pittsburgh
Northern Iowa
Missouri State
St. Joseph's
Colorado State

OK Then.

I guess my full attention can be focused on March Madness. Stupid football.

UNC getting blasted

Even Dick Vitale is taking shots at UNC who is about to go down 30 at FSU.

Scratch Pittsburgh

39 points against Rutgers? WTF?

NIT first round: Pitt vs. Bucky

This is only a test.

Meh.

Backwards BEAST?

A year ago, there was little doubt the Big East was the nation's best basketball conference. That is not the case this season but it might be just as interesting. Using Brian's bracket projections, here's a quick look at the conference two weeks into conference play.

NATIONAL TITLE CONTENDER: Syracuse - If there's been any fallout from the Bernie Fine fiasco, the Orange are showing no effects. About the only thing missing might be a true go-to guy.

DANCERS:

Louisville - Now 1-3 in conference, Pitino needs to stop the free-for-all ASAP. Can they slide all the way out? I don't think so but depth is an issue.

Georgetown - Was suppose to be a rebuilding year. Smells like a 6-9 seed to me once the season ends.

UConn - Off all the teams in, this one has the potential to go deepest. Also capable of a quick exit. On the 4 line, they have the most ability to bump that.

Marquette - The epitome of the BEAST this year. Playing at home against St. John's, you'd think they'd handle them. Despite that, I could see it going either way. Not a must win by any stretch but it wouldn't be a good loss.

Seton Hall - Hall has the nation's 4th toughest schedule and are 2nd in RPI. Hello, Arturas Karnishovas! Having a great season thus far. Deserve a deeper look later.

West Virginia - As expected

Notre Dame - After losing Abromatis, they could have melted down. Now 11-6, 3-1, they seem to have found their way. Of those 6 losses, two are against Indiana and Gonzaga with other losses against Mizzou and Maryland. All losses are on neutral sites or on the road. With a RPI of 96, if they can continue winning at home in conference, they should get in.

OTHERS:

Pitt - Jamie Dixon is in the throes of one of "those" years great coaches inexplicably have, see Roy Williams 2009-10. At 11-5, they have inexplicable losses to Wagner and DePaul. While Wagner has a RPI of 67, Pitt should beat them. Still plenty of time to rally and I'll bet on Dixon. Maybe they're ACC dreaming.

Villanova - Nova's SOS is 30 but with a RPI of 115, they need to put together a bunch of W's and fast. Jay Wright joins Jamie Dixon in having one of those years. Three years removed from a Final Four, the Wildcats are still searching for an identity.

Cincinnati - 8-1 since the infamous brawl, Cincinnati needs a strong showing through the remainder of the BEAST season. They're off to a nice start (3-1) but a SOS of 212 hangs over their heads as do losses to Presbyterian and Marshall. At least Marshall has a Top 50 RPI.

St. John's - I throw them in here just because they're a young, talented team that has been w/o Steve Lavin for most of the season. I wouldn't cmpletely write them off yet but they have some brutal losses losing at home to Northeastern and at Detroit. Normally a loss to Texas A&M doesn't seem egregious but they have a RPI of 222 and are fighting for most disapointing team of 2012.

Tuesday Evening Brackology

1 seed vs 16 seed
Syracuse (Beast) vs Ashville(Bsouth)/TexSouthern(SWAC)
Kentucky (SEC) vs Albany (Aeast)/NorfolkSt (MEAC)
North Carolina (ACC) vs Long Island (NEC)
Ohio State vs Buffalo (MAC)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Michigan State (B10) vs Lamar (Sland)
Baylor (Big12) vs Bucknell (Patriot)
Missouri vs Weber St (BigSky)
Kansas vs Nevada (WAC)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Indiana vs Cleveland State (Horizon)
Duke vs Davidson (SoCon)
UNLV (Mwest) vs Colorado (Pac12)
Florida vs George Mason (CAA)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Kansas State vs Southern Miss (CUSA)
Georgetown vs Oral Roberts (Summit)
Louisville vs MidTennState (Sbelt)
Connecticut vs Iona (MAAC)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Gonzaga vs Notre Dame/Arizona
Alabama vs Long Beach State (Bwest)
Marquette vs Virginia Tech/Cinncinati
Vanderbilt vs Illinois
6 seed vs 11 seed
Virginia vs Dayton (A10)
Michigan vs Memphis
Creighton (MVC) vs Harvard (Ivy)
Seton Hall vs Florida State
7 seed vs 10 seed
St. Louis vs Belmont (Asun)
Murray State (OVC) vs San Diego State
Purdue vs BYU
Mississippi State vs New Mexico
8 seed vs 9 seed
Wisconsin vs Wichita State
Temple vs Califonia
West Virginia vs Stanford
St. Mary's (WCC) vs Texas

First Four Out
Marshall
Northern Iowa
Xavier
Pittsburgh
Next Four Out
Iowa State
VCU
Missouri State
Northwestern
Also Considered
NC State
Oklahoma
Villanova
Miami
Clemson
Washington State
Oregon State
Georgia
Kent State
Ohio
Georgia State
St. Joseph's
LSU
Arkansas
Minnesota
Washington
Texas A&M
Oklahoma State

Well then...

If Duke is NIT bound where is Wisconsin going?

College Insider.Com tournament?

Ignore rankings

Seth Davis is blathering on about West Virginia beating Georgetown at home as an upset. WVU was a 5.5 point favorite and covered that relatively easily. West Virginia is now 12-4 and 3-1 in conference. What a huge upset

K-State is smoking Missouri at home (K-State is a notoriously tough place to play), up 21 at half. Though Missouri is undefeated, is that an upset? Road conference game against a likely tourney team? Methinks not.

Oops

Arizona probably won't play in the Final Four

Rebuttal

Wisconsin - Bo will not change plus they have no depth to push tempo even a touch more. Why does it seem all SR. point guards play their worst basketball in year four? No Badger fan likes to hear this but where's the needed athleticism going to come from? In the B1G Gasser and Brust are fine but how do you think they do against tOSU backcourt?

Duke - Has Cameron hosted a NIT game?

Marquette - Who knew they'd miss Otule so much. The upper class men should play smarter but aren't. Could one argue Todd Mayo has been the team MVP thus far? I don't think, if that is the case, that's a good sign. Hayward or Butler should be replaced by Odom or Crowder.

Still only January 5 for all 3 teams

Home Team Remedies

After losses by Marquette, Wisconsin, and Duke over the past 48 hours I thought I would analyze what each team needs to do to right the ship before March.

Wisconsin – the easiest solution of the 3 their weakness is their outside shooting. Once their opponent senses that they are cold from the outside they pack the middle and dare Wisconsin to get hot from 3 point land. What Wisconsin needs to do is to pick up the pace sporadically to get easier, quicker shots. They can’t guarantee that they’ll turn around their outside shooting but by picking up the pace they should be able to get a couple extra easy shots. 6-8 additional points can make a huge difference when the first team to 55 wins.

Duke – Although they lost last night something good came out of it. Miles Plumlee got more playing time and put up solid numbers. It was very reminiscent of 2010 when Coach K began playing Brian Zoubek more. If he can provide the same consistency in the paint that would be step 1. Step 2 is the exact opposite of Wisconsin. Duke feels they need to push the pace and get the score in the 80’s. This has led to too many turnovers and bad shot selection (not to mention poor point play). Again, going back to 2010 this is what plagued them. Putting Scheyer in at point, slowing down the game, and playing tough defense worked back then and would work again this year.

Marquette – this one is the hard one because quite frankly I don’t think there is anything that can help them. It’ll come down to whether they are hot or not in March. They have a defensive deficiency and don’t play smart. That’s not something that can be fixed after 4 years of it. Their March prospects will probably come down to matchups. It’s not out of the realm for another Sweet 16 but a Final 4 is probably not possible.

Rebuttals?

Timing is Everything

I guess the pretender comment couldn't have come at a better time. Temple 78, Duke 73.

More ACC fodder

Mike Decourcy of the Sporting News believes for any ACC team to get a bid, they'll have to win TEN games in conference. Will be interested to see how that plays out but seems pretty close to right

Found on twitter @kurly99

ACC Contender/Pretender

Pretender:
It hurts but as of today the biggest pretender are the Duke Blue Devils. Sure they’ve played a tough schedule and only lost once but the pretender status has more to do with the lack of point guard play. Currently they are averaging more turnovers than assists. Stats like that usually lead to early round exits. It’s still early in the season and Rivers or Curry may figure it out but as of today it’s not looking good in March

Contender:
Although already 9-4 the Miami Hurricanes are still poised to move up in the conference. Jim Larranaga was hired in April and has to start from scratch this year after 14 years at George Mason. Larranaga has a knack for getting his teams ready for March and I envision this team slowing getting better as the year goes on. Come March this is going to be an 10 or 11 seed that nobody wants to see in their bracket.

Tuesday Evening Brackology

1 seed vs 16 seed
Syracuse (Beast) vs Campbel(Bsouth)l/PrairieView(SWAC)
Kentucky (SEC) vs Maine (Aeast)/NorfolkSt (MEAC)
North Carolina vs CS-Fullerton (Bwest)
Ohio State vs Wright State (Horizon)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Duke (ACC) vs Lamar (Sland)
Michigan State (B10) vs Charleston (SoCon)
Baylor (Big12) vs Weber St (BigSky)
Missouri vs Fairfield (MAAC)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Indiana vs Robert Morris (NEC)
Wisconsin vs South Dakota State (Summit)
Florida vs LeHigh (Patriot)
Kansas vs New Mexico State (WAC)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Louisville vs Southern Miss (CUSA)
Connecticut vs Ohio (MAC)
Georgetown vs MidTennState (Sbelt)
Marquette vs Missouri State (MVC)
5 seed vs 12 seed
UNLV (Mwest) vs Illinois/Arizona
St. Louis (Asun) vs Seton Hall
Kansas State vs VCU (CAA)
Gonzaga vs Virginia Tech/Minnesota
6 seed vs 11 seed
Alabama vs Wichita State
Mississippi State vs Memphis
Virginia vs Temple
Michigan vs Harvard (Ivy)
7 seed vs 10 seed
Pittsburgh vs Belmont (Asun)
Texas vs San Diego State
Creighton vs Califonia
Purdue vs Florida State
8 seed vs 9 seed
Xavier vs New Mexico
Murray State (OVC) vs Stanford (Pac12)
St. Mary's (WCC) vs Vanderbilt
BYU vs West Virginia

First Four Out
Northwestern
Cincinnati
Washington
Texas A&M
Next Four Out
Oklahoma State
George Mason
St. Joseph's
Marshall
Also Considered
Iona
Long Beach St
NC State
Oklahoma
Villanova
Miami
Georgia Tech
Clemson
Washington State
Georgia State
Iowa State
Notre Dame
Oregon State
Oral Roberts
Indiana State
Georgia
Kent State
Cleveland State
Northern Iowa
Dayton

Lock up your daughters

Could be worse Bart, you probably put up more points than Bo's team will at some point in March.

Conference Play Begins

Well, it's January and most teams are either in their conference play or just finishing up their non-conference schedule. A lot of teams have gaudy records as of today but this is where the teams begin to separate. Bracketology becomes a weekly theme and the cream will rise to the top. Each conference has as pretender creeping at the top of the rankings and each has a contender that is just getting ready to get going. Let's start out today with the Big Ten.

Pretender:
I wanted to go with Illinois but I'll save the Illini bashing for Kurly. My pick for pretender is Indiana. Sure they've had a lot of high profile wins so far but I think they are peaking too early. Now, I'm not going over board and saying they won't make the dance but I think a top 10 ranking is way too high. The Big Ten schedule will where them down. Look for a 9-7 conference record and an 8 seed come March.

Contender:
Wisconsin and Michigan State have too lofty of statures to be labeled as a team on the rise so my pick is Northwestern. Every year they play just well enough to not make the tournament. This year is the breakthrough. A couple big road wins along with defending their home court and 10-6 is within reach. For the first time ever, Northwestern goes dancing.