Deciphering Your Badger Final 4 Week

A lot of us are unfamiliar with the type of basketball Wisconsin plays, so let me define the terms that will be used to describe them in the week leading up to their tip-off in the Final Four.

FUNDAMENTAL BASKETBALL: Fundamental basketball can be interchanged with, "doing it the right way". Fundamental basketball includes playing something called "defense". Most teams can't play defense because they don't play defense on the playground. On offense, this means "extra passes" and "good shots".

UNSELFISH: Unlike 99% of the teams in the tournament, Wisconsin is one of the few, probably the only, that plays unselfish. Most teams don't share the ball or play help defense. Aaron Craft is unselfish.

GRITTY: Arguably the only team that will dive for a loose ball left in the tournament. That type of effort is "unselfish". Scrappy is another term that can be interchanged or out hustles.

HARD WORKING: Nobody outworks the Badgers on the court or in the classroom. Most teams are lazy in practice and the weight room and most teams have players that skip classes and have tutors do their work for them because they are not hard working.

HIGH MOTOR: The Badgers are always working because they have high motors. You won't see any Florida Gators being accused of having high motors. Sometimes "has a lot of heart" is used in its place.

SNEAKY ATHLETIC: The Badgers have guys that can run fast and jump high but you wouldn't expect it. "Deceptive speed" is similar in meaning. "Faster than he appears" is another option.

SOMEONE YOU'D LOVE YOUR DAUGHTER TO DATE: They have no clue how to navigate a major metropolitan city. Free of tattoos. Wear their hats straight with the brims properly bent. Enjoy Darius Rucker.

Hopefully this well help you

SUNDAY ELITE 8

EAST 

Michigan State vs. UConn- KenPom has Sparty as a 2-pt. favorite in this game. Between the two, UConn has looked more impressive in the last two games playing with confidence and swagger. They haven't played a team nearly as physically and intimidating as the Spartans. If you watch Sparty, though, you see if you're patient, you can attack them and get good looks. UConn has the best overall player in Shabbaz Napier but I think his career ends at MSG.

The Pick: Michigan State 68 UConn 62

MIDWEST

Kentucky vs. Michigan - According to KenPom, this is basically a pick 'em game but that doesn't take into account no Willie Cauley-Stein. You'll have a good idea how this game goes based on Michigan 3-pt shooting. If they're making them, Kentucky will have a tough time winning. They simply can't match that firepower. I thought Tennessee would give Michigan more trouble in the paint but Michigan got a great night out of Jordan Morgan who has ably replaced Mitch McGary.  To think Kentucky will easily manhandle Michigan in the paint seems foolish. If Louisville could hold their own, Michigan can. Kentucky has the talent but I've been underestimating Michian all year. No more.

The Pick: Michigan 72 Kentucky 67

Saturday Elite Eight

EAST REGION

Florida vs. Dayton - You don't often see such a mismatch based on the numbers in the Elite 8 but according to KenPom, Florida is favored by 9 with an 84% win probability. In a one game setting, though, anything goes and Dayton looked great on Thursday night. That said, Florida is the best team in the land. VCU took out Kansas in 2011 in a similar setting so it's not impossible. I don't see it. Great run by Dayton ends and Billy Donovan goes back to the Final 4

Pick: Florida 71 Dayton 62

WEST

Arizona vs. Wisconsin - Arizona is a 3-pt favorite according to KenPom, with a 64% win probability. This'll be a de facto home game for Arizona similar to Wisky in Milwaukee last Saturday. Not sure that matters. I'm going with the numbers on this one and the numbers pegged Bucky a Sweet 16 team with an Elite 8 ceiling and Zona a Final Four team, Final game ceiling. 

Pick: Arizona 65 Wisconsin 61

Sweet Sixteen - Friday

Tennessee 61 – Michigan 59

Michigan was one of the teams we had pegged as an early exit possibility.  Here is where that happens.  Tennessee dominates inside and squeaks out a low scoring victory.

Louisville 79 – Kentucky 66

I suppose the National Media is looking forward to this game; I’m not.  I’m just hoping whoever wins this game loses their next.

Iowa State 73 – Connecticut 66

I’m looking forward to this game the most.  It should be a back and forth affair with some great play between Shabazz Napier and DeAndre Kane.  In the end Iowa State gets a little more production from their supporting cast.

Michigan State 49 – Virginia 47

Advert your eyes, do not look directly at this game.  A grind it out fest that bring Dick Bennett to his feet applauding nobody gets 50.  He doesn’t even care if Tony loses; just keep the scoring down.

 

FRIDAY SWEET 16

MIDWEST REGION

Michigan vs. Tennessee - Time for did you know. Did you know Tennessee is top 20 in KenPom in offense and defense? The Vols are better defensively than offensively and will lose some problems for Michigan if their  outside shots aren't falling. Tennessee will probably dominate the glass in this game. The Vols are a weird team pretty capable of winning this region. Michigan is far better on offense than defense and if shots are falling, good luck Vols. I honestly have no idea which way this game goes.

Pick: Michigan 60 Tennessee 55

Louisville vs. Kentucky- Wow, Louisville is playing Kentucky in the Sweet 16 in Indianapolis. How did that happen? The Kentucky team you saw on Sunday was devastating. Shooting, defending aggressively and monsters on the glass. Louisville has looked ordinary thus far after cake walking through the American. Kentucky won the regular season meeting. Which Kentucky team shows up?  That's the question

Pick: Louisville 59 Kentucky 58

EAST REGION

Iowa State vs. UConn- Here's something to give you an idea why this might be such an intriguing game. Iowa State is 19th overall in KenPom. They're 10th in offense, 57th in defense. UConn is 20th overall, 58th in offense and 10th in defense. How's that?  Should be a great game. If Niang is playing, I'd take ISU. Without him, I give UConn a slight edge.

The Pick: UConn 66 Iowa State 65

Virginia vs. Michigan State- Tickets for this regional are dwarfing others in terms of value. Part of it is MSG being the host but these are two tremendous games. Michigan State is the media darling right now while Virginia is almost still a mystery. This is another game where defense meets offense. Virginia is efficient on the offensive side but more known for defense. Sparty is probably perceived as a defensive power but have been much better on offense. Harvard really got a lot of good looks against MSU. Virginia is not going to take bad shots. Can Sparty defend?

The Pick: Virginia 69 Michigan State 67

Tursday Sweet Sixteen - My Picks

Stanford 63 – Dayton 52

Dayton closed the year hot but it end tomorrow.  Both teams are pretty even but Dayton has been living on the edge in each tournament game.  Johnny Dawkins takes this team to the Elite 8.

Florida 68 – UCLA 53

Bad UCLA shows up and Florida stops screwing around and flexes its muscles.  I’m expecting a blowout.

Wisconsin 77 – Baylor 67

Wisconsin gets a quick lead and Baylor falls apart early. 
 

San Diego State 55 – Arizona 54

The game of the night with the Aztecs pulling the upset.  Arizona goes through one of its scoring lulls against a stout SD State defense and Steve Fisher returns to the E8.

Sweet 16, Thursday Session

SOUTH REGION

Stanford vs. Dayton - Stanford enters a slight favorite. It's somewhat amusing if we think about Dayton's success. On two occasions, they could have been sent home but survived to live another day. Luck is always such a real thing in sports. That's not a shot at Dayton but a reminder how unpredictable things can be. Stanford looks like every Stanford team of my life except Johnny Dawkins is coaching it. In all these picks, I haven't looked at the numbers so it's all my fat gut.  

Pick: Dayton 61 Stanford 56

Florida vs. UCLA - Florida played indifferent in the opening round and in the first half against Pitt before dismantling the Panthers in the 2nd half. They'll have to bring it for 40 minutes against the Bruins. This is Steve Alford's first Sweet 16 since 1999. He's done a great job this year and a Bruins win won't shock me. I'm taking the Gators simply because Scottie Wilbekin has that look of that guy that we remember as the heart of a title team.  A Cleaves, Battier, May, etc. I'm buying the cliche.

Pick: Florida 63 UCLA 60

WEST REGION

Wisconsin vs. Baylor - This could be the best game of the night or one of these teams could blow the other out. Baylor looks fantastic but bad Baylor is always lurking. I was intrigued by a Badgers-Bluejays matchup because I figured that would be like a 90-85 type game. Baylor's zone is long and active but the Badgers can shoot it if given space. I think the difference is Kaminsky from mid-range and I don't trust Baylor not to be bad Baylor.

Pick: Wisconsin 75 Baylor 68

Arizona vs. San Diego State - I've seen some arguments that Sean Miller is the best coach never to make a Final Four. Eh, seems pretty young in his career to anoint him that. Whatever the case, his Wildcats looked dominant late Sunday night. SDSU making the Sweet 16 is pretty remarkable. They were expected to be a team like this next year and this a rebuilding year. It'll probably be a low scoring tilt and I'll stick with Arizona.

Pick: Arizona 59 San Diego State 51