THE AAC
- Louisville and Cincinnati have stamped themselves as the class of the new AAC. Louisville went into UConn and defeated the Huskies on Saturday night while Cincinnati continues to bludgeon its opponents, winning at USF. The Bearcats are 6-0 in conference play and should be 8-0 heading into a matchup at Louisville on January 30th. Cincinnati still has road games with UCOnn and SMU as well.
Memphis, UConn & SMU remain in the mix. I'll remain doubtful of Memphis even with its win at Louisville easrlier this month. Home losses to Cincinnati and UConn are hard to scrub, along with the history of the Tigers.
THE ACC
- Virginia easily handled Florida State at home, sweeping the season series with FSU. They did lose earlier in the week at Duke. Other than that, the Cavs have rolled through the ACC up to this point.
- Duke smoked NC State at home playing like the Duke team you fear. They travel to Pitt and Syracuse in back-to-back games at the end of the month. A split their would go a long way for them. Amile Jefferson has stepped up his play the last few games. His emergence is key
- Syracuse held off a pesky Pitt team at the Carrier Dome on Saturday and have some convinced they're the best team in the land. Lead by the play of freshmen PG Tyler Ennis, the Orange remain undefeated playing a brutal style of ball. While efficient, Syracuse hasn't played a game with more than 60 possessions in ACC play.
THE BIG XII
- Oklahoma went into Baylor and dropped the Bears to 1-3 in conference play. The Sooners have been getting fantastic play from Gonzaga transfer Ryan Spangler. In typical Baylor fashion, the Bears had 9 seconds to tie or take the lead as Oklahoma nearly spit away a 7-pt lead in the final :30. Baylor failed to get a shot off.
- Iowa State dropped its 3rd straight game, losing at Texas. The Longhorns and much-maligned Rick Barnes are quietly off to a 14-4 start. The host K-State on Tuesday. It's not a must win but it would certainly not be a good loss since they have lost at home to Oklahoma already.
- In the game of the day in the conference, Kansas outlasted Oklahoma State at Phog Allen. Kansas appears to be growing up after a sluggish start to the season. Andrew Wiggins disappeared for the final 30 minutes, yet Kansas found a way to win. Other FROSH star, Joel Embiid nearly had a triple double. As you'll hear ad nauseum, Embiid is still learning to play the game but has NBA scouts drooling. As for OSU, injuries have hurt their depth and Marcus Smart finished strong after a no-show start. The Cowboys seem prone to sloppy offensive possessions. They pressured the young Jayhawks into plenty of turnovers but followed up too many of those with poor shots of their own. If that gets cleaned up, they're tough to beat.
The Big East
- Providence served notice last night that despite the loss of so many expected contributors, they'll have something to say about who wins this league. They jumped all over Creighton who fell to 1-1 traveling to the east coast. Bryce Cotton played his 3rd straight game without seeing the bench. The game was never close in the 2nd half. Will the Friars have the legs to do this through the rest of conference play?
- While Providence tries to make themselves a player in the conference, two pre-season favorites, Marquette and Georgetown continue to struggle. The Hoyas lost at home to Seton Hall. The Pirates have been better recently but that's not a game Georgetown should lose. Marquette had a 40-28 lead at Butler with 15:26 left and scored 9 more points in regulation. They averaged .57 ppp in the 2nd half. Rinse, repeat...
The B1G
- Michigan went into Wisconsin and won in Madison for the first time since 1999. The Badgers have dropped two straight and save a Fran Mccaffrey meltdown, should have two home losses in conference. Wisconsin's lack of heft inside and mediocre defense was exposed for the 2nd time in a week. This is Wisconsin's best offensive team in years but they have real concerns on defense. The defensive efficiency numbers are skewed higher than they probably really are due to their pasting of cupcakes. Expect it to be their downfall in March. Still, a Final Four run isn't out of the question.
- Somehow, Northwestern has won 2 straight games with a win over Indiana yesterday. Indiana beat Bucky earlier in the week and pundits hailed the arrival of the young Hooisers. One game in January doesn't define a season one way or the other. There's talent in Bloomington but it's young. Wouldn't get too up or down about either game
Missouri Valley
- The Valley looks to be a one-bid league in 2014 but that one-bid team looks like a Final Four contender. The Shockers waxed a good Indiana State team at home on Saturday. I suspect they'll trip up at either UNI or Indiana State, which are back-to-back games in the beginning of February. If they get through that, they have a legit chance at being undefeated going into Arch Madness.
Pac-12
- The news of the week was the loss of Spencer Dinwiddie to Colorado for the season. It'll be a tough road ahead for the Buffaloes who crushed USC on Saturday.
- California continues to impress in conference play moving to 5-0 with a sweep of the Washington schools over the past week. Cal should be 6-0 going into Pauley next Sunday.
- Utah and Stanford also notched wins this weekend. Utah beat UCLA at home while Stanford won its 3rd straight conference game. Among those wins is a win at Oregon. The depth of the Pac 12 is amongst the best of any league in the land. Arizona will be well-tested heading into March.
SEC
- Kentucky held off Tennessee at Rupp despite getting dominated on the boards. I overrated the Wildcats at the beginning of the season. I don't see a title team here but I do see a team getting better every week. They were sloppy at the end yesterday but you can still see them maturing. Tennessee went at them and the youngsters responded beautifully.
- Arkansas followed up its win at home over Kentucky by losing at Georgia. The Razorbacks are a monster at home, a wimp on the road. And I watched them lose at home to Florida last week where Florida was undermanned. Arkansas will be on the bubble and if they get left out, I'll have a hard time feeling sympathy for such an up-and-down team.
Sunday, January 19, 2014
Thursday, January 16, 2014
Halfway Point
We are halfway through the season so now is a good time to revisit our preseason predictions and lay out our second have guesses…
Preseason
Elite Eight
Louisville
VCU
Virginia
Kansas
Oklahoma State
Florida
Duke
Michigan State
Final Four
Oklahoma State
Florida
Duke
Michigan State
Championship
Michigan State over Oklahoma State
5 of the 8 look solid halfway through the season with the outliers being Virginia, VCU, and Duke. I am not ready to rule out Duke for an Elite Eight run but VCU and Virginia look to be out of the running. They are barely hanging on to a bid altogether. The championship still looks possible with Michigan State and Oklahoma State still looming in the 1-2 seed range. If it weren’t for all the Freshman and undefeated teams I think Okie State would be getting more publicity. Better to stay under the radar. Altogether the preseason rankings don’t look to bad.
Second Half
Elite Eight
Wichita State
Wisconsin
Florida
Syracuse
Oklahoma State
Kansas
Arizona
Michigan State
Final Four
Oklahoma State
Arizona
Kansas
Michigan State
Championship
Arizona over Michigan State
Wednesday, January 15, 2014
Big East Revisited
One of the stories worth watching this year was how the new Big East would fare. My concerns were I didn't see a dominant team or one capable of national prominence unless things absolutely broke right. I did believe there was sufficient depth and a possibility at 5-6 teams to make the dance. The first part looks to be true, the second? Doubtful.
The Leaders:
- Creighton: The Bluejays have looked impressive early in Big East play and appear the team to beat. They romped Marquette on New Year's Eve and added a nice win at Xavier this past Sunday. Last night, they ran Butler off the court in an offensive clinic. National POY candidate, Doug McDermott matched Butler with 24 in the 1st half.
I tweeted some incredible offensive numbers last night. Forward Ethan Wragge has become such a weapon for this team paired with McDermott, teams simply have no answer for both of them. Double Doug? Wragge is going to get open and kill you. Entering last night, he had an effective fg% of 71.6% while attempting only 6 2-pt fgs. That's 2nd best in the nation. The term Wragge Bomb will likely terrorize teams the rest of the year.
Creighton has yet to do much travel out east, only venturing to Jersey so far against a woeful Seton Hall team. We'll have to see how they handle that as the season progresses but you may not see a better offensive team in all of college basketball this season.
- Villanova: I wasn't sure what to make of Villanova heading into the season. I certainly liked the pieces but wasn't sure how it would all come together. Well, it's melded quite nicely for Jay Wright. The Wildcats are 3rd in KenPom and are effective on both sides of the ball.
They're getting contributions up and down the lineup with key minutes and play coming from freshan Josh Hart. Despite lacking a lot of size, the Wildcats are effecient on the glass, more than holding their own. They could be a little stronger with the ball but even that isn't a terrible issue for them.
Their only loss has come to Syracuse who happens to be undefeated. They won the Battle for Atlantis beating a green Kansas team but earned it with a nice win over a very good Iowa ball club. After a few middling seasons, Jay Wright has Villanova trending upwards again.
The Disappointments:
- Marquette: I chronicled their misery earlier this month. Since then, play has still been uneven with the backcourt being the primary concern.
- Providence: I pegged Providence as a breakout team this season. Then projected Big Easy Newcomer of the Year Brandon Austin was suspended and subsequently transferred to Oregon. Fellow newcomer Rodney Bullock is still suspended and guard Kris Dunn re-injured his shoulder ending his season.
Coach Ed Cooley can still probably salvage a NIT appearance but a return trip to the NCAAs is not going to happen.
- St. John's: I've been duped by Steve Lavin teams so many times, he could sell me beachfront property in Kansas. I also bought into CBS Sports college hoops scribe Jon Rothstein who continually calls St. John's the 'most talented" team in the Big East. Athetic talent and basketball talent don't always equate. Chances are, I'll buy in next year, too.
--
If the season ends today, it looks like the new Big East gets 4 teams into the NCAA tournament. Villanova, Creighton and Xavier are locks with Georgetown looking pretty healthy. DePaul, Seton Hall, St. John's, Providence & Butler have no chance with Marquette needing a big run.
The league has recruited very well in its first season out of football land. It'll need to continue to do that. The league could also use a villain and bully. In the 80s, that was Big John and Georgetown. The recent was Syracuse. If I've learned anything on social media when it comes to the schools of this conference, primarily the original members, they were unified by one thing, their unabashed hatred for all things Syracuse.
The Big East 2.0 is still finding itself and ordering its basketball hierarchy. It may take a few years for us to figure out who the new bully is and where the new rivalries are. It'll be a fascinating experiment in basketball only schools dedicated to winning
The Leaders:
- Creighton: The Bluejays have looked impressive early in Big East play and appear the team to beat. They romped Marquette on New Year's Eve and added a nice win at Xavier this past Sunday. Last night, they ran Butler off the court in an offensive clinic. National POY candidate, Doug McDermott matched Butler with 24 in the 1st half.
I tweeted some incredible offensive numbers last night. Forward Ethan Wragge has become such a weapon for this team paired with McDermott, teams simply have no answer for both of them. Double Doug? Wragge is going to get open and kill you. Entering last night, he had an effective fg% of 71.6% while attempting only 6 2-pt fgs. That's 2nd best in the nation. The term Wragge Bomb will likely terrorize teams the rest of the year.
Creighton has yet to do much travel out east, only venturing to Jersey so far against a woeful Seton Hall team. We'll have to see how they handle that as the season progresses but you may not see a better offensive team in all of college basketball this season.
- Villanova: I wasn't sure what to make of Villanova heading into the season. I certainly liked the pieces but wasn't sure how it would all come together. Well, it's melded quite nicely for Jay Wright. The Wildcats are 3rd in KenPom and are effective on both sides of the ball.
They're getting contributions up and down the lineup with key minutes and play coming from freshan Josh Hart. Despite lacking a lot of size, the Wildcats are effecient on the glass, more than holding their own. They could be a little stronger with the ball but even that isn't a terrible issue for them.
Their only loss has come to Syracuse who happens to be undefeated. They won the Battle for Atlantis beating a green Kansas team but earned it with a nice win over a very good Iowa ball club. After a few middling seasons, Jay Wright has Villanova trending upwards again.
The Disappointments:
- Marquette: I chronicled their misery earlier this month. Since then, play has still been uneven with the backcourt being the primary concern.
- Providence: I pegged Providence as a breakout team this season. Then projected Big Easy Newcomer of the Year Brandon Austin was suspended and subsequently transferred to Oregon. Fellow newcomer Rodney Bullock is still suspended and guard Kris Dunn re-injured his shoulder ending his season.
Coach Ed Cooley can still probably salvage a NIT appearance but a return trip to the NCAAs is not going to happen.
- St. John's: I've been duped by Steve Lavin teams so many times, he could sell me beachfront property in Kansas. I also bought into CBS Sports college hoops scribe Jon Rothstein who continually calls St. John's the 'most talented" team in the Big East. Athetic talent and basketball talent don't always equate. Chances are, I'll buy in next year, too.
--
If the season ends today, it looks like the new Big East gets 4 teams into the NCAA tournament. Villanova, Creighton and Xavier are locks with Georgetown looking pretty healthy. DePaul, Seton Hall, St. John's, Providence & Butler have no chance with Marquette needing a big run.
The league has recruited very well in its first season out of football land. It'll need to continue to do that. The league could also use a villain and bully. In the 80s, that was Big John and Georgetown. The recent was Syracuse. If I've learned anything on social media when it comes to the schools of this conference, primarily the original members, they were unified by one thing, their unabashed hatred for all things Syracuse.
The Big East 2.0 is still finding itself and ordering its basketball hierarchy. It may take a few years for us to figure out who the new bully is and where the new rivalries are. It'll be a fascinating experiment in basketball only schools dedicated to winning
Monday, January 13, 2014
RPI Notes
With less than 9 weeks left in the regular season let’s take a look at a couple of the under and over achieving teams in the RPI.
Under-Achieving:
Duke – The RPI of 33 isn’t all that bad but a lot of the “experts” had them pegged as a Final Four team. The lack of rebounding and interior defense is starting to show through and Jabari Parker is coming back to earth. There is still time for them to right the ship but it hasn’t looked good lately.
Louisville – RPI of 34. The loss of Chane Benahan is hurting right now and they let one slip away against Memphis this weekend. Russ Smith is still exciting but the supporting cast is not what it used to be. They miss Peyton Siva more than I thought they would.
North Carolina – RPI of 53. We had them pegged as over-rated going into the season and they haven’t even lived up to that. Sure they have a couple HUGE wins but the losses have been baffling and are now starting to pile up. They are barely hanging on to a bid right now
Over-Achieving:
UMass – RPI of 4! Kurly had them pegged before the season as super sleeper and he’s spot on. With only 1 loss, at Florida State, their star is on the rise. This team could be the best mid-major outside of Wichita State
Iowa – RPI of 17. Another sleeper we had listed in the preseason Iowa is starting to look more and more dangerous. Their losses have been at Wisconsin, at Iowa State, and at Villanova. You’d like to see them win one of those but there’s no shame in losing on the road to 3 top 15 teams.
UWGB – RPI of 28. Who would have thought UWGB would have the highest RPI of the low majors? I was shocked myself. They have a baffling loss at Eastern Michigan but the other two were against Wisconsin and Harvard. The win vs Virginia looms large.
San Diego State
This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Aztecs. When you lose Jamaal Franklin and Chase Tapley off a 23 win team that went 9-7 in conference, it doesn't seem likely they'd be better. Yet, that's where we appear headed with this squad.
Lead by the steady hand of veteran head coach Steve Fisher, the Aztecs are 14-1 and 2-0 to start Mountain West play. Their only loss came at the hands of #1 Arizona. They hold wins over Marquette, Creighton & Kansas. A defensive-minded squad, the Aztecs are currently 21st in KenPom.
Let's start with the defense. 10th overall in adjusted defense, SDSU is above average in all four factors. They're 6th in effective fg%, holding opponents to 42.4%. They have a turnover % of 21.3%, 35th best. From 2, teams shoot only 40.7%. That's also 6th best in the land. From beyond the arc, teams shoot 31%. The national average is 34.2%.
Offensively, they are not as strong, 58th overall in adjusted offense. The Aztecs effective fg% is 47.9%, 240th in the land. They're a decent shooting team from deep but weak from 2, shooting 44.8%, 280th overall. Turover% is 16.3%, 63rd best and on the boards, they get misses. Their offensive rebounding % is 36.8%, 42nd best in the land. Only 6.7% of possessions end in steals, 14th best. One number to keep an eye on, they only shoot 66% from the free throw line. They get their at a healthy clip. Improving their would make them even more deadly.
While Franklin & Tapley departed, smooth SR. G, Xavier Thames returned. Thames is the elading scorer for the Aztecs, getting 16.2 ppg. He also shoots 47% from deep. SDSU also has solid forward play from SOPH. Winston Shepard who looks like their next star. Shepard is averaging 13.2 ppg. Josh Davis, JJ O'Brien and Dwayne Polee provide frontcourt depth and plenty of quality minutes. Aqeel Quinn rounds out the backcourt with Thames. Quinn isn't a star but a glue guy who contributes in a number of ways.
The Mountain West was a good conference last season despite the flameout in March. Still, I felt San Diego State was a bit of an underachiever at 9-7 in league play. They had a good shot at making a Sweet 16 after Florida Gulf Coast upset Georgetown but disjointed play by SDSU in the 2nd half oftheir game lead to an opening week departure. The Mountain West isn't as good this year and double digit conference wins should be there for San Diego State. They've shown they can play with anyone, so a Sweet 16 should be a legitimate possibility. Kudos to the job Steve Fisher has done in San Diego. Guy can find talent and coach talent.
Lead by the steady hand of veteran head coach Steve Fisher, the Aztecs are 14-1 and 2-0 to start Mountain West play. Their only loss came at the hands of #1 Arizona. They hold wins over Marquette, Creighton & Kansas. A defensive-minded squad, the Aztecs are currently 21st in KenPom.
Let's start with the defense. 10th overall in adjusted defense, SDSU is above average in all four factors. They're 6th in effective fg%, holding opponents to 42.4%. They have a turnover % of 21.3%, 35th best. From 2, teams shoot only 40.7%. That's also 6th best in the land. From beyond the arc, teams shoot 31%. The national average is 34.2%.
Offensively, they are not as strong, 58th overall in adjusted offense. The Aztecs effective fg% is 47.9%, 240th in the land. They're a decent shooting team from deep but weak from 2, shooting 44.8%, 280th overall. Turover% is 16.3%, 63rd best and on the boards, they get misses. Their offensive rebounding % is 36.8%, 42nd best in the land. Only 6.7% of possessions end in steals, 14th best. One number to keep an eye on, they only shoot 66% from the free throw line. They get their at a healthy clip. Improving their would make them even more deadly.
While Franklin & Tapley departed, smooth SR. G, Xavier Thames returned. Thames is the elading scorer for the Aztecs, getting 16.2 ppg. He also shoots 47% from deep. SDSU also has solid forward play from SOPH. Winston Shepard who looks like their next star. Shepard is averaging 13.2 ppg. Josh Davis, JJ O'Brien and Dwayne Polee provide frontcourt depth and plenty of quality minutes. Aqeel Quinn rounds out the backcourt with Thames. Quinn isn't a star but a glue guy who contributes in a number of ways.
The Mountain West was a good conference last season despite the flameout in March. Still, I felt San Diego State was a bit of an underachiever at 9-7 in league play. They had a good shot at making a Sweet 16 after Florida Gulf Coast upset Georgetown but disjointed play by SDSU in the 2nd half oftheir game lead to an opening week departure. The Mountain West isn't as good this year and double digit conference wins should be there for San Diego State. They've shown they can play with anyone, so a Sweet 16 should be a legitimate possibility. Kudos to the job Steve Fisher has done in San Diego. Guy can find talent and coach talent.
Monday Morning Bracketology
1 seed vs 16 seed
Arizona (P12) vs Southern(SWAC)/Norfolk (MEAC)
Syracuse (ACC) vs Chattanoga(SoCon)/Wagner(NEC)
Wisconsin (B1G) vs Radford (Bsouth)
Michigan State vs Stony Brook (Aest)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Wichita State (MVC) vs N.Colorado (Bsky)
Villanova (Beast) vs IPFW (Summit)
Oklahoma State vs Georgia St (Sbelt)
Florida (SEC) vs UC-Irvine (Bwest)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Kansas (B12) vs Delaware (Colonial)
Kentucky vs Boston (Pat)
Baylor vs Mercer(Asun)
Massachusettes (A10) vs SFA (Sland)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Ohio State vs Akron (MAC)
Iowa State vs Louisiana Tech (Cusa)
Colorado vs Belmont (OVC)
Iowa vs Manhatten (MAAC)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Gonzaga (WCC) vs UW-Green Bay (Horizon)
Cincinnati (AAC) vs New Mexico St (WAC)
San Diego St (MWC) vs LSU/North Carolina
Pittsburgh vs Indiana State/Arizona State
6 seed vs 11 seed
Creighton vs California
Memphis vs George Washington
Louisville vs Minnesota
Duke vs Texas
7 seed vs 10 seed
UCLA vs Illinois
Oregon vs Florida State
New Mexico vs Michigan
Missouri vs Kansas State
8 seed vs 9 seed
Connecticut vs Georgetown
VCU vs Xavier
St. Louis vs Virginia
Oklahoma vs Harvard (Ivy)
First Four Out
Dayton
Toledo
St. Mary's
George Washington
Next Four Out
Stanford
Tennessee
Southern Miss
Indiana
Also Considered
SMU
North Dakota State
BYU
Boise State
Wake Forest
Missouri State
North Carolina St
Mississippi
Maryland
Arkansas
Utah State
Clemson
Texas A&M
UNLV
Monday, January 6, 2014
Pac-12 Rising
After a few dismal seasons, it appears the Pac-12 is trying to reclaim a spot in the best basketball conference argument. They may not be that this season, but they're not that far off and by the end of the year, they may have an argument. Between themselves and the Big 12, there may not be a more entertaining and unpredictable conference all season.
The Big Ten is likely the best conference. They have three teams in the top 5 and another real solid team with a potentially insane coach in Iowa. The middle might be a little softer than we imagined. Michigan is sorting through injury issues and sketchy PG play. Illinois looks better than advertised but are still young while Indiana and Purdue are probably not as good as we may have thought. Does the Pac-12 measure up?
Well, the Pac-12 isn't as top heavy as the B1G. I think Arizona is better than Michigan State, Ohio State & Wisconsin but I don't believe --at this particular moment-- the Pac-12 has another team better than those 3.
In KenPom's Top 50, we see 6 Pac-12 teams rated. Arizona is 2 and then the next team is Oregon at 24. The ratings are fluid, changing nightly with each game played but I'm pretty confident this will be the case for most of the year. Outside looking in are Stanford at 57 and Utah at 68. Utah has played a pretty terrible schedule to this point.
Here's a quick glance at who these teams from KenPom's Top 50 have played and beaten:
- 2. Arizona
Arizona has beaten Duke and UNLV and has a road win at Michigan. Arizona hasn't blown the doors off the competetion and havetrailed a fair amount of games at half but continue to win. Young at spots, the inconsistency within games shouldn't surprise. This is Sean Miller's best team since coming to the desert and are a real title contender.
- 24. Oregon
Oregon was undefeated prior to yesterday's loss at Colorado. The Ducks have played really good basketball this season and have wins over Illinois, Georgetown and Ole Miss. Losing at Colorado is no shame and the Ducks had the lead for a good chunk of the game befofe the Buffs took charge down the stretch.
- 30. Colorado
The Buffaloes are enjoying life in the Pac-12 as they appear headed to a 3rd straight NCAA appearance. The Buffs have only two losses on the season, both to Big 12 opponents, Baylor & Oklahoma State (prior to the suspensions and injuries). They did beat Kansas and Harvard and held home court serves against the Ducks.
- 31. UCLA
Year one under Steve Alford has started well. They lost twice with those losses coming to Missouri and Duke. They haven't beaten anyone of great note but they did beat USC 107-73 on Saturday. USC Coach Andy Enfield spent the off-season taking veiled shots at the Bruins and Steve Alford;s style of basketball. The Bruins responded on the court. Might be an interesting few years between these two.
- 46. California
The Golden Bears continue to play well under coach Montgomery. They stand 10-4 with 4 losses against potential tournament teams. The two that cause fans a bit of worry are to Dayton and UC-Santa Barbara. Obviously, UCSB needs to win the Big West to dance but they'll be among the favorites. Dayton looks solid thus far. It will behoove the Bears to get to 10 wins in conference or get a top-4 finish.
- 47. Arizona State
The Sun Devils could make an argument they have the conference's best player in PG Jahii Carson. That being said, a loss at home last week to Washington wasn't a good loss. The Huskies aren't a bad team, but the Wildcats have to win those type of games at home. They do own wins over UNLV and Marquette. They lost to Creighton which was a whooping and to Miami (FL) which will likely be a bad loss.
Washington, Stanford and Utah will cause some problems through the course of the season as well. Arizona is the favorite and Oregon should finish 2nd but 2-6 will be a battle. The Pac-12 is back.
The Big Ten is likely the best conference. They have three teams in the top 5 and another real solid team with a potentially insane coach in Iowa. The middle might be a little softer than we imagined. Michigan is sorting through injury issues and sketchy PG play. Illinois looks better than advertised but are still young while Indiana and Purdue are probably not as good as we may have thought. Does the Pac-12 measure up?
Well, the Pac-12 isn't as top heavy as the B1G. I think Arizona is better than Michigan State, Ohio State & Wisconsin but I don't believe --at this particular moment-- the Pac-12 has another team better than those 3.
In KenPom's Top 50, we see 6 Pac-12 teams rated. Arizona is 2 and then the next team is Oregon at 24. The ratings are fluid, changing nightly with each game played but I'm pretty confident this will be the case for most of the year. Outside looking in are Stanford at 57 and Utah at 68. Utah has played a pretty terrible schedule to this point.
Here's a quick glance at who these teams from KenPom's Top 50 have played and beaten:
- 2. Arizona
Arizona has beaten Duke and UNLV and has a road win at Michigan. Arizona hasn't blown the doors off the competetion and havetrailed a fair amount of games at half but continue to win. Young at spots, the inconsistency within games shouldn't surprise. This is Sean Miller's best team since coming to the desert and are a real title contender.
- 24. Oregon
Oregon was undefeated prior to yesterday's loss at Colorado. The Ducks have played really good basketball this season and have wins over Illinois, Georgetown and Ole Miss. Losing at Colorado is no shame and the Ducks had the lead for a good chunk of the game befofe the Buffs took charge down the stretch.
- 30. Colorado
The Buffaloes are enjoying life in the Pac-12 as they appear headed to a 3rd straight NCAA appearance. The Buffs have only two losses on the season, both to Big 12 opponents, Baylor & Oklahoma State (prior to the suspensions and injuries). They did beat Kansas and Harvard and held home court serves against the Ducks.
- 31. UCLA
Year one under Steve Alford has started well. They lost twice with those losses coming to Missouri and Duke. They haven't beaten anyone of great note but they did beat USC 107-73 on Saturday. USC Coach Andy Enfield spent the off-season taking veiled shots at the Bruins and Steve Alford;s style of basketball. The Bruins responded on the court. Might be an interesting few years between these two.
- 46. California
The Golden Bears continue to play well under coach Montgomery. They stand 10-4 with 4 losses against potential tournament teams. The two that cause fans a bit of worry are to Dayton and UC-Santa Barbara. Obviously, UCSB needs to win the Big West to dance but they'll be among the favorites. Dayton looks solid thus far. It will behoove the Bears to get to 10 wins in conference or get a top-4 finish.
- 47. Arizona State
The Sun Devils could make an argument they have the conference's best player in PG Jahii Carson. That being said, a loss at home last week to Washington wasn't a good loss. The Huskies aren't a bad team, but the Wildcats have to win those type of games at home. They do own wins over UNLV and Marquette. They lost to Creighton which was a whooping and to Miami (FL) which will likely be a bad loss.
Washington, Stanford and Utah will cause some problems through the course of the season as well. Arizona is the favorite and Oregon should finish 2nd but 2-6 will be a battle. The Pac-12 is back.
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