Monday, January 13, 2014

San Diego State

This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Aztecs. When you lose Jamaal Franklin and Chase Tapley off a 23 win team that went 9-7 in conference, it doesn't seem likely they'd be better. Yet, that's where we appear headed with this squad.

Lead by the steady hand of veteran head coach Steve Fisher, the Aztecs are 14-1 and 2-0 to start Mountain West play. Their only loss came at the hands of #1 Arizona. They hold wins over Marquette, Creighton & Kansas. A defensive-minded squad, the Aztecs are currently 21st in KenPom.

Let's start with the defense. 10th overall in adjusted defense, SDSU is above average in all four factors. They're 6th in effective fg%, holding opponents to 42.4%. They have a turnover % of 21.3%, 35th best. From 2, teams shoot only 40.7%. That's also 6th best in the land. From beyond the arc, teams shoot 31%. The national average is 34.2%.

Offensively, they are not as strong, 58th overall in adjusted offense. The Aztecs effective fg% is 47.9%, 240th in the land. They're a decent shooting team from deep but weak from 2, shooting 44.8%, 280th overall. Turover% is 16.3%, 63rd best and on the boards, they get misses. Their offensive rebounding % is 36.8%, 42nd best in the land. Only 6.7% of possessions end in steals, 14th best. One number to keep an eye on, they only shoot 66% from the free throw line. They get their at a healthy clip. Improving their would make them even more deadly.

While Franklin & Tapley departed, smooth SR. G, Xavier Thames returned. Thames is the elading scorer for the Aztecs, getting 16.2 ppg. He also shoots 47% from deep. SDSU also has solid forward play from SOPH. Winston Shepard who looks like their next star. Shepard is averaging 13.2 ppg. Josh Davis, JJ O'Brien and Dwayne Polee provide frontcourt depth and plenty of quality minutes. Aqeel Quinn rounds out the backcourt with Thames. Quinn isn't a star but a glue guy who contributes in a number of ways.

The Mountain West was a good conference last season despite the flameout in March. Still, I felt San Diego State was a bit of an underachiever at 9-7 in league play. They had a good shot at making a Sweet 16 after Florida Gulf Coast upset Georgetown but disjointed play by SDSU in the 2nd half oftheir game lead to an opening week departure. The Mountain West isn't as good this year and double digit conference wins should be there for San Diego State. They've shown they can play with anyone, so a Sweet 16 should be a legitimate possibility. Kudos to the job Steve Fisher has done in San Diego. Guy can find talent and coach talent.

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