ASun-
Live from Jacksonville, it’s the ASun. The ASun has two teams with a positive AdjustedEM, Central Arkansas and Austin Peay. Only 4 teams had a winning record in league play. It’s grim.
The regular season champ was Central Arkansas, 154th in KenPom. Austin Peay finished 2nd and is 165. Queens and Lipscomb, the other two teams with winning records in league are also the only other top 200 KenPom teams.
Central Arkansas has won 13 of 14 and is the pick.
Big South-
The Big South is played in Johnson City, TN at Freedom Hall. Sounds patriotic. High Point won the league at 15-1 and went 27-4 overall. They’re 91st in KenPom. Bracket buster alert. They’ve won 11 in a row. They’re the 4th best turnover % on both sides of the ball nationally. Note that should they draw a turnover prone team in a few weeks.
Of course, they have to win the conference tourney. Their only loss was to Winthrop who finished 2nd and is the only other top-200 KenPom team.
High Point is the pick.
NEC-
The NEC tips Wednesday as well. Per usual, this is 16-seed territory. No team is top-200 in KenPom. Rod Strickland’s LIU won the regular season title and are the faves. Central Connecticut finished 2nd but were swept by LIU.
Mercyhurst and Le Moyne finished T-3 and split with LIU. I’ll stick with LIU.
Ohio Valley-
The OVC travels to Evansville, IN and begin festivities on Tuesday. Another league with no top-200 KenPom teams, the regular season champs were Tennessee State and Morehead State, who both went 15-5. They split the regular season matchups. They’re 207 and 282 in KenPom, respectively. Nolan Smith coaches Tennessee State.
The middle of the league is tight and it should make this tournament fairly wide open. UT-Martin saw the wheels fall off going 2-5 over the last 7. They had wins over UNLV and Bradley in non-com. Tennessee State and Morehead State have been playing the best down the stretch and one of those should win but I’ll pick SIUE who is coached by Marquette legend, Brian Barone.
Summit-
The Summit begins Tuesday in beautiful Sioux Falls. The regular season champ was North Dakota St who finished 14-2 in league play, splitting with 2nd place St. Thomas. St. Thomas is higher in KenPom at 105 vs. NDSU which is 118. The rest of the league is sub-200. Woof if someone other than the top 2 win.
St. Thomas is the pick because they lead the nation in 2pt shooting % and are 4th overall in effective fg%. NDSU is 233rd in effective fg% defense. Between the two of them, the Tommies are more likely to steal a win in the Big Dance.
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