Thursday, February 20, 2020

5 seed or 6 seed

I saw someone say they’d rather be a 6-seed in the tournament instead of a 5-seed. My first thought was, that doesn’t seem far-fetched. 5-seeds always lose. I looked at the past decade and was quite surprised at what I found. It wasn’t that I was surprised 5-seeds lose a fair amount, but being a 6-seed isn’t any better.

Here are how 5-seeds have fared since 2010 (number indicates how many teams have lost in that round):

Round of 64: 16
Round of 32: 12
Sweet 16: 6
Elite 8: 1 (Arizona 2011)
Final 4: 2 (Auburn 2019, Michigan State 2010)
Title Game: 1 (Butler 2010)

Here are how the 6-seeds have fared:

Round of 64: 21 !!
Round of 32: 12
Sweet 16: 5
Elite 8: 2 (Xavier 2010, Notre Dame 2016)

What does it mean? Spend more time looking for upsets on that 6-line than the 5-line

No comments: