Thursday Update

Last Night’s games

Not a lot of bubble losses but Maryland (4) got upset at Penn State.  Villanova (7) picked up a big win against Marquette (3) while Louisville (7) continued their free fall with a loss at Boston College.

Tonight’s Bubble games:

Nebraska (AC)  vs Michigan (2)

Nebraska is barely hanging on but a road win at Michigan would push them up 4-5 spots.  Still not enough to be in but enough to still be monitored

Furman (FF) vs Samford

Furman is still living off some early season wins.  They can’t afford any losses at this point.

Minnesota (FF) vs Northwestern

Minnesota is in most people’s bracket but the first team out in mine.  Nobody directly in front of them have lost today so I don’t know if a win gets them in but a loss is going to keep them out

Portland vs St. Mary’s (FF)

St. Mary’s resume is better this year than it’s been the years where they were 30-4 going into selection Sunday.  Better scheduling and a stronger WCC will do that.  This weekend’s game against Gonzaga is a win or you are done game

Belmont (13) vs UT-Martin and Murray State (NF) vs Morehead State

These two games go together as Belmont and Murray State are tied at the top of the Ohio Valley.  Neither team is getting an at-large bid right now but if they win out and meet in the conference championship the loser might.  Belmont has the stronger resume

Wednesday Update

Last Night’s games

Butler, South Carolina, and Temple all lost while, Liberty, Utah State, and Alabama won.  I won’t update the bracket until tonight’s but I don’t think anybody moves in or out based on just last night.  Butler had the most to lose as a win could of moved them to first team out.

Tonight’s Bubble games:

Davidson (NF) vs LaSalle

Davidson slowly made their way back into consideration and then lost last time out.  They still have a small chance with all wins and some teams in front of them losing.  We’ll keep an eye on them for a little longer

DePaul vs Georgetown (AC)

Dayton Georgetown is barely in the conversation and probably needs to win out to the conference tournament championship to be considered.  In other words, this is a must win.

Clemson (12) vs Pittsburgh

Clemson is one of my last 2 teams in right now but nobody is pushing from the outside in.  A loss probably brings idle Minnesota in.  Best to take the Quad 2 road win.

UCF (12) vs USF

A rivalry game and a bid possibly on the line for UCF.  They are one of my last 4 in so a loss may drop them out.

Auburn (10) vs Georgia

Auburn has non-bubble computer numbers (NET = 23, KenPom = 14) but their record just isn’t very good.  Not enough Quad 1 wins and this would be a bad loss for them.  Safe…for now

Tonight’s Bubble games

San Diego St vs Utah State (12)

The Aggies are one of my last 4 in and cannot afford a loss here.  Hold serve at home and they remain in the bracket.

Dayton (AC) vs UMass

Dayton is barely in the conversation and probably needs to win out to the conference tournament championship to be considered.  In other words, this is a must win.

Providence vs Butler (FF)

Butler has been flirting with being in and out the entire year.  Computer numbers are average but they have enough to be right there if they win and Utah State loses tonight

Iowa (6) vs Ohio State (10)

Ohio State is safe at the moment but  2-3 game losing streak with drop them out.  A win tonight gives them even more room for error with only a couple regular season games left.

Alabama (11) vs South Carolina (AC)

Alabama is an 11 but is not safe at all.  South Carolina is basically alive because they have a good conference record.  This has a grind it out feel to it.

Temple (11) vs Memphis

Temple could use another Quad 1 win and Memphis is tough at home.  The Owl’s computer numbers aren’t all that good so a win tonight is probably worth 5-8 NET ranking points

Monday Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed

Gonzaga (WCC) vs St.Francis(NEC)/NorfolkSt(MEAC)

Virginia (ACC) vs P.View(SWAC)/Cansius(MAAC)

Duke vs S.Houston(Sland)

Kentucky vs Bucknell (Patriot)

2 seed vs 15 seed

North Carolina vs Wright St (Horizon)

Michigan St(B1G) vs Drake (Mvalley)

Tennessee(SEC) vs Radford (Bsouth)

Michigan vs Montana (Bsky)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Houston (AAC) vs Texas State (Sbelt)

Marquette (Beast) vs UC-Irvine (Bwest)

Purdue vs Vermont (Aeast)

Texas Tech vs S.Dakota St (Summit)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Wisconsin vs Hofstra(Colonial)

Kansas vs Old Dominion (Cusa)

Maryland vs Yale (Ivy)

LSU vs Belmont (OVC)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Nevada (Mwest) vs Lipscomb (Asun)

Virginia Tech vs N.Mexico St (WAC)

Iowa vs Clemson/Seton Hall

Iowa St. vs Utah State/UCF

6 seed vs 11 seed

Kansas St (B12) vs Arizona State

Florida St. vs Alabama

Mississippi St. vs Temple

Cincinnati vs Ohio St.

7 seed vs 10 seed

Buffalo (MAC) vs Oklahoma

Washington (P12) vs Texas

Louisville vs Auburn

Villanova vs North Carolina State

8 seed vs 9 seed

Baylor vs Florida

Mississippi vs TCU

Syracuse vs Wofford (SoCon)

St. John's vs VCU (A10)

First Four Out

Minnesota

Furman

Butler

St. Mary's

Next Four Out

Murray State

Creighton

Liberty

Davidson

Also Considered

Nebraska

Georgetown

Dayton

The Weekly Top 10 Separates Itself

This week, in my opinion, separated these teams from the rest of their leagues and in some cases, the rest of the nation. It’s my estimation the top 5 in this list are clearly a step above the rest of the nation and the teams listed 10-7. Michigan State is the one question I have. If healthy, they probably can cut the nets down. While I appreciate the upsets of March, I’d like to see 4 of the top 5 teams listed here, playing in April. It’d be as good a Final 4 as any in recent memory.

10. Texas Tech - The Red Raiders won by 25 over Baylor and 29 over Kansas at home this week. In fact, during their current 5 game winning streak, the smallest margin of victory is a 12-point win over Oklahoma. The offense was bad entering February, in the mid 100’s. It’s 47th today in KenPom with a number one offense. They don’t play fast but are still 3 possessions quicker than a team a like Wisconsin where you know an offensive stinker awaits. This is the best team in the Big XII. 

9. Marquette - Took care of Butler at home and whipped Providence on the road yesterday. Now in the drivers seat to win the Big East. Almost the whole team will return a year from now and Wojo is big game hunting for 2020-21. Doesn’t work everywhere but this is what a 5-year plan looks like in fruition.

8. Michigan - Uneventful week. Took care of a desperate Gopher team in the Cities. Need to win against a depleted Spartans team today at home. A loss probably gives Michigan State the inside track to a league title.

7. Tennessee - While the rest of the Top 10 appears to be trending up and separating themselves as the top teams in the nation, the Vols are doing the opposite. Losing at LSU in overtime is no great shame but they were without Tremont Waters. They managed an ugly win over Vandy. Part of me feels we’ll look back at this team like some of Rick Barnes Texas teams, teams that peaked too early

6. Michigan State- Won at home over Rutgers after a falling behind at half. The win allows them to retain The Axe Body Spray Situation Trophy

5. Kentucky - Thumped Auburn at Rupp. Now possess top 10 defenses and offenses. Might be time for the stuffed shirts to start writing the why Calipari is bad for the game articles.

4. North Carolina - Even without Zion, beating Duke at Duke served notice this team can cut the nets down. They backed it up with a thumping of Florida State at home. Like Kentucky, they now possess a top 10 defense and offense. 

3. Gonzaga - Starting to see the “Gonzaga” is overrated talk. Looking at you Michigan fans. Dropped 102 on BYU last night and have been to 4 straight Sweet 16’s. Aren’t we pass such ideas now about how to properly rate this team?

2. Virginia- Fell behind by 10 at Louisville yesterday. Like many other times, Louisville gagged that lead away. That said, this should be another example of why this isn’t the same Virginia team of the past. How good is the top of the ACC?

1. Duke - I know they lost at home but was more impressed with the toughness they showed at Syracuse last night. Emotionally charged atmosphere, without their superstar, questions all week about his future and they found a way to win. Toughness isn’t measurable but the older I get, the more I believe in it.

Friday Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed

Gonzaga (WCC) vs St.Francis(NEC)/NorfolkSt(MEAC)

Virginia (ACC) vs P.View(SWAC)/Cansius(MAAC)

Tennessee(SEC) vs S.Houston(Sland)

Duke vs Lehigh (Patriot)

2 seed vs 15 seed

North Carolina vs Montana (Bsky)

Michigan (B1G) vs Drake (Mvalley)

Michigan State vs Radford (Bsouth)

Kentucky vs Texas State (Sbelt)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Houston (AAC) vs UC-Irvine (Bwest)

Marquette (Beast) vs N.Kentucky(Horizon)

Kansas vs Old Dominion (Cusa)

Purdue vs S.Dakota St (Summit)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Texas Tech vs Liberty (Asun)

Iowa St. vs Yale (Ivy)

Wisconsin vs Vermont (Aeast)

LSU vs Belmont (OVC)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Maryland vs Hofstra(Colonial)

Florida St. vs N.Mexico St (WAC)

Nevada (Mwest) vs Oklahoma/UCF

Virginia Tech vs Utah State/ASU

6 seed vs 11 seed

Iowa vs Seton Hall

Louisville vs Florida

Kansas St (B12) vs Alabama

Villanova vs Temple

7 seed vs 10 seed

Buffalo (MAC) vs North Carolina State

Cincinnati vs Minnesota

Mississippi St. vs St. John's

Washington (P12) vs TCU

8 seed vs 9 seed

Baylor vs Texas

Auburn vs Wofford (SoCon)

Syracuse vs Ohio St.

Mississippi vs VCU (A10)

First Four Out

Lipscomb

Furman

Clemson

Georgetown

Next Four Out

St. Mary's

Nebraska

Butler

Murray State

Also Considered

Arkansas

Indiana

Oregon

Davidson

San Francisco

South Carolina

Creighton

f

Wednesday Updates

Well, the 5 bubble teams went 0-5 last night.  Every year I hear how soft the bubble is but I actually believe it this year.  Indiana and Nebraska are 5-11 and 4-11 in conference and are a 3 game winning streak from being solidly IN the bracket!

Tonight’s Bubble games:

Villanova (5) vs Georgetown (AC)

The Hoyas have no room for error until the conference tournament

Florida (12) vs LSU (4)

LSU could be ripe for a let down game and Florida needs this game.  Their computer numbers are great but they need a signature win.  This could be it

Boston College vs North Carolina State (11)

North Carolina State is flipping between 11 and 12 but this would be a bad loss and would drop them to right on the cut line

Xavier vs Seton Hall (11)

Seton Hall doesn’t have to win but a loss is not good at this point

Arkansas (NF) vs Auburn (8)

Auburn is got some funky numbers but safely in.  Arkansas could really use a Quad 1 road win

Northwestern vs Ohio State (10)

6-8 in the Big Ten and solidly in the bracket…welcome to 2019

Butler (FF) vs Marquette (3)

Butler needs this win more than any team tonight.  Marquette is almost unbeatable at home.  A win for the Bulldogs and they leap frog both of the next two listed below

Stanford vs Arizona State (12)

ASU is the last team in today’s bracket.  That might tell you what they need to do tonight.

New Mexico vs Utah State (12)

Utah State is one team in front of Arizona State.  This would be a worse loss than Stanford.

Tonight is important for a lot of 12 seed teams.  Oh, and Duke plays North Carolina.  It’s on!

Tuesday Bubble Games

Dayton at Davidson

Davidson is one of my First Four out and cannot afford any slip ups until the conference tournament.  Home court is big tonight

Purdue at Indiana

How sad is it that at 13-12 Indiana is still one Lunardi’s First Four out?  I have them also considered as I know they can get hot and win 3-4 in a row.  A win tonight over Purdue is going to move them into the Next Four out category.  Two losses and they are done

Nebraska at Penn State

Again, how sad is it that at 5-10 in conference Nebraska is one of my Next Four out.  A NET of 38 and KenPom of 33 will keep a team like this in consideration

Florida State at Clemson

Clemson is one of my last 4 in.  A win against Louisville on Saturday would have been huge but this would almost make up for it although it is at home

Alabama at Texas A&M

Alabama is in a weird situation.  I have them as an 11 but I’ve seen them anywhere in between a 9 and 12.  A road win would help their computer numbers but they are smack dab in the middle of the bubble right now

Monday Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed

Duke (ACC) vs St.Francis(NEC)/NorfolkSt(MEAC)

Gonzaga (WCC) vs P.View(SWAC)/Quinnipiac(MAAC)

Virginia vs S.Houston(Sland)

Tennessee(SEC) vs Bucknell (Patriot)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Michigan State vs Montana (Bsky)

Kentucky vs Drake (Mvalley)

North Carolina vs Radford (Bsouth)

Michigan (B1G) vs Texas State (Sbelt)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Houston (AAC) vs UC-Irvine (Bwest)

Marquette vs N.Kentucky(Horizon)

Nevada (Mwest) vs Old Dominion (Cusa)

Kansas vs S.Dakota St (Summit)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Purdue vs Yale (Ivy)

LSU vs Vermont (Aeast)

Texas Tech vs N.Mexico St (WAC)

Louisville vs Belmont (OVC)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Iowa vs Hofstra(Colonial)

Iowa St. vs Florida/Utah State

Wisconsin vs Oklahoma/Clemson

Florida St. vs UCF

6 seed vs 11 seed

Virginia Tech vs Temple

Villanova (Beast) vs Texas

Kansas St (B12) vs North Carolina St

Maryland vs Lipscomb (Asun)

7 seed vs 10 seed

Buffalo (MAC) vs Minnesota

Cincinnati vs Seton Hall

Mississippi St. vs Ohio St.

Washington (P12) vs TCU

8 seed vs 9 seed

Mississippi vs Wofford (SoCon)

St. John's vs Baylor

Auburn vs VCU (A10)

Syracuse vs Alabama

First Four Out

Arizona State

Butler

Furman

Davidson

Next Four Out

Nebraska

San Francisco

Liberty

St. Mary's

Also Considered

Arkansas

Creighton

Indiana

Toledo

Oregon

Georgetown

Murray State

Fresno St

Weekly Top 10 Looks Ahead

10. Michigan - Weird week. Sloppy loss at Penn State, relatively easy win at home over Maryland. Five regular season games remain, including trips to Maryland and Michigan State and a home tilt with Sparty. Also have a trip to the Barn to take on Minnesota to take on a desperate and capable Gophers team. Projected Finish: KenPom 4-1, Eric 2-3

9. Marquette - Quiet week with an easy win at DePaul. Six games remain, split equally at home and road. Road trips include trips to Jersey and Philly. Projected Finish: KenPom 5-1, Eric 4-2

8. Nevada - Won easily at Wyoming yesterday. Six games remain with their toughest tilt at Utah State two Saturdays from now. Projected Finish: KenPom 6-0, Eric 5-1

7. Michigan State - Won a game at the Trohl Center and play Ohio State today. Six games remain with 4 at home and 2 on the road. Includes 2 games with Michigan and a trip to Indiana who beat Sparty in East Lansing a few weeks back. Indiana looks like a team that is mailed it in, though. Projected Finish: KenPom 5-1, Eric 5-1

6. North Carolina - Started the week with a loss at home to Virginia but followed it up with a throttling of Wake Forest. Schedule is daunting. Two games remain with Duke and have to go to Clemson. They also have home tilts with Florida State and Syracuse. Projected Finish: KenPom 4-2, Eric 3-3

5. Kentucky - Split home games with LSU and Tennessee this week, losing at the horn to the Tigers and walloping Tennessee last night. Six games remain including a return trip to Knoxville and Ole Miss. They also have Auburn at Rupp. Tough schedule remains. Projected Finish: KenPom 5-1, Eric 4-2

4. Tennessee - Last night was one of those nights as Kentucky outshot them. But that may prove to be their ondoing as the Vols defense is a concern moving forward. So is the schedule. Kentucky comes calling and road games remain at LSU, Auburn and Ole Miss. They also have Mississippi State at home. That’s daunting. Projected Finish: KenPom 5-1, Eric 3-3

3. Virginia - Great win at UNC Monday and a typical Cavalier grinder yesterday over Notre Dame. Six games remain including trips to Virginia Polytechnic and Louisville this week. They close the season with a trip to Syracuse and with a return home engagement against Louisville. Given the Cardinals inability to inbounds the ball, I have a hard time believing they will challenge Virginia. Projected Finish: KenPom 6-0, Eric 5-1

2. Gonzaga - I can’t find it but I saw a stat saying the Zags have the largest conference point differential ever, topping the mark they set in 2017. The WCC is much better this year, too. Four games remain including a trip to St. Mary’s. The Gaels will want that one badly. Not sure that matters. Projected Finish: KenPom 4-0, Eric 4-0

1. Duke - After the improbable win at Louisville, they followed it up with a win over NC State. Six games remain with trips to Blacksburg, the Carrier Dome and Dean Dome. They also have a home game against UNC. It’ll be a good 3-week test for the Blue Devils. Projected Finish: KenPom 6-0, Eric 5-1 

Conference USA

Last year, when Brian and I did the quick conference tournament previews, I mentioned to him I thought the league should be better than it is. In 2018, they had 3 teams inside the KenPom top 100, 2 in the top 50. Marshall would win the league tournament and finished the year 105th in KenPom. The league finished 11th overall in KenPom’s league rankings.

Fast forward a year later and the league sits 17th overall in KenPom’s league rankings with not one team in the top 100. The league sits behind the WAC and Ivy among others. That shouldn’t be the case.

The league doesn’t have Cincinnati or Louisville or Memphis anymore. Those halcyon days are over but they have schools with resources and schools with basketball history. They include 3 schools that have made Final Fours in Western Kentucky, UTEP and Charlotte. Even UAB has made 3 Sweet 16’s. 

Western Kentucky has underachieved this year. They beat Wisconsin but lost to Indiana State and Troy. My hunch is they’re better than 113th in KenPom but the results speak for themselves. 

The disappointing programs reside in El Paso and Charlotte. UTEP isn’t likely to win another national championship. 1966 was a unique event. Still, they’ve been to 17 NCAA tournaments. Texas is loaded with talent. They currently are 260ty in KenPom. In their defense, they have one upperclassmen getting minutes but they’re bad.

Charlotte was a regular contender in the original days of the Conference USA. They have been to a Final 4. Following the 2005 season, they left for the A-10. They finished 2005 54th overall. That’s the best they have finished a season since then. Bobby Lutz last season was 2010 when they finished 96th in KenPom. Since then, they’ve never finished in the KenPom top 100. Coincidentally or not, the basketball slide began with the reintroduction of football.

As with a lot of leagues, football has hurt and driven Conference USA. The Big East raided it first, then the AAC. Many of the member schools have focused on football and that has probably hurt the basketball programs. Even with that, there is no reason for this league not to have 3-4 schools knocking on the door to the tournament. 

We’ll give credit to Old Dominion and Jeff Jones who has had the Monarchs as consistent contenders in the league since he got there. Let’s see if some others can step up in the league and match their consistency.

Friday Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed

Tennessee(SEC) vs BobMorris(NEC)/NorfolkSt(MEAC)

Duke (ACC) vs P.View(SWAC)/Monmouth(MAAC)

Gonzaga (WCC) vs S.Houston(Sland)

Virginia vs Bucknell (Patriot)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Michigan State vs Montana (Bsky)

Kentucky vs Loyola (Mvalley)

North Carolina vs Radford (Bsouth)

Michigan (B1G) vs Texas State (Sbelt)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Houston (AAC) vs UC-Irvine (Bwest)

Marquette vs N.Kentucky(Horizon)

Nevada (Mwest) vs Old Dominion (Cusa)

Kansas vs S.Dakota St (Summit)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Purdue vs Yale (Ivy)

Villanova (Beast) vs Vermont (Aeast)

LSU vs N.Mexico St (WAC)

Louisville vs Belmont (OVC)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Texas Tech vs Hofstra(Colonial)

Wisconsin vs Florida/Utah State

Florida St. vs Oklahoma/Clemson

Iowa St. vs Texas

6 seed vs 11 seed

Maryland vs Temple

Virginia Tech vs Seton Hall

Kansas St (B12) vs Minnesota

Iowa vs Lipscomb (Asun)

7 seed vs 10 seed

Buffalo (MAC) vs UCF

Cincinnati vs North Carolina St

Mississippi St. vs VCU (A10)

Washington (P12) vs Alabama

8 seed vs 9 seed

Ohio St. vs Wofford (SoCon)

Mississippi vs Auburn

Baylor vs Syracuse

TCU vs St. John's

First Four Out

Indiana

Toledo

Arizona State

Butler

Next Four Out

Arkansas

Creighton

Furman

Davidson

Also Considered

San Francisco

Oregon

Georgetown

Nebraska

Murray State

Fresno St

St. Mary's

UNCG

Liberty