Fraud Alert: Louisville

Up to 6 in KenPom, Louisville is currently the highest rated team from the ACC but are they the best team in the ACC or a product of a soft schedule? They're not the best team in the ACC and they're probably not a fraud but I wouldn't call them a Final 4 contender despite the lofty rating. 

Louisville is the highest rated defensive team in KenPom. They hold opponents to an effective fg% of 41.2, 4th overall. They also force turnovers with a turnover rate of 22%, 22nd. The Cardinals also limit opponents offensive rebounds to 27.5%. They have a block rate of 15.9%, 8th in the nation. Big man Chinanu Onuaku has block rate of 10.8%.

They're a good offensive rebounding team, too. In fact, they're the 2nd best in the nation at it. Onuaku again, is 13th best offensive rebounder in the nation. Jaylen Johnson and Mangok Mathiang are also solid rebounders. Edit: Mathiang is out with injury for another 3-4 weeks.

The analytics types don't like teams that rely so heavily on 2pt scoring. Louisville gets 60% of their offense from 2. That's 9th highest. Part of that is from being such a good offensive rebounding team, though. 

Drexel transfer Damion Lee has been outstanding. He's 22nd overall in ORating. 

Why look at Louisville with a weary eye? The schedule mostly. KenPom's SOS shows them with the 214th toughest schedule to this point and that's with games at Kentucky and Michigan State. The out of conference SOS for KenPom is 306th. Average opponent AdjustedO is 148th and AdjustedD is 279th. 

Louisville is projected with only 3 more conference losses which would give them a 14-4 conference record and a high seed. My guess is, they end up with 6-7 conference losses. This is a good team, but not 6th overall good.