Top 10?

Where's Villanova?

Weekly Top 10, The One That Matters

1. Oklahoma - The Sooners went into Baton Rouge yesterday and beat LSU on a late shot by Isaiah Cousins. It was a brilliant game by National POY leader Buddy Hield that put Boomer Sooner in position to win. Some pundits are starting to question Oklahoma because of their 2-point reliance and it's a valid concern but this is the new basketball. The 3 rules.

2. North Carolina - The Tar Heels start the hard part of their schedule this week with trips to Louisville and Notre Dame. They have a 3rd straight road game at BC followed by 3 straight home games against Pitt, Duke & Miami. We'll learn how good they are quickly.

3. Iowa - They lost at Maryland Thursday night in a game where Jarrod Uthoff played his worst game of the year. Still, they had a chance to win late. 

4.Villanova - Whoops

5. Xavier - CBS Sports ran a graph yesterday showing Xavier's propensity for huge in-game runs as they went on an absurd 18-1 run to close out the 1st half. The ability to dominate both sides of the floor against inferior opponents for such stretches makes them a good bet to advance in March.

6. Virginia - The universal love for Virginia guarantees an early exit in March. They beat an overrated Louisville team yesterday that is brutal on offense. You'd have thought Virginia just whipped the Globetrotters. 

7. Michigan State - Sparty raced up KenPom after motorboating Northwestern. They look to be back on track but I still have doubts.

8. Texas A&M - Called the Arkansas loss but they bounced back nicely with a win over Iowa State yesterday. 

9. Kansas - I picked them to win it all but I see a team that can't guard the perimeter. What they could use is a Jeff Withey type patrolling the paint. Wayne Selden was a monster yesterday in their win over Kentucky.

10. Wichita State - The Valley is the 4th best "mid-major" conference (my definition of mid-major) behind the Colonial, Summit and MAC. Still, this is a dangerous team and given the dearth of great teams, as capable as any at making a deep March run.

Coming: Oregon

Going: West Virginia

Biggest Disappointments By Conference

What teams have been the biggest disappointments this year? Let's look by league.

Big XII: By the end of the year, I get the feeling it might be West Virginia. As of today, this league has pretty much played out as expected.

Pac 12: California seems the obvious choice but they've had injuries. I'll take Oregon State who many picked to return to the dance this season. They're 3-5 in league play as they head to Arizona. Tough road ahead for the Beavers.

ACC: Duke is the easy choice. They lost a key component in Jefferson but the defensive collapse is pretty awful. A Final 4 team by many in pre-season, to a team looking to hang onto a tourney appearance.

Big East: Butler started the year off on fire but have struggled mightily in conference play, falling to 3-6 after losing to an inconsistent Marquette team today. Butler is 151st in AdjustedD. A solid offensive team, they have a tough time defending.

SEC: Vanderibilt was a trendy pick at the start of the year to win the league. Instead, they've scuffled all year. Texas whipped them today. The 'dores have struggled on offense, 100th in AdjustedO. They're still a talented team with some NBA talent. 

Big Ten: Wisconsin joins Duke in struggling after playing for the title last year. They've found a nice stretch here and have close losses in many games but they were considered a tourney lock prior to the season. Didn't help Bo Ruan was a quitter.

A-10: Davidson was a borderline tournament team prior to the season but have not matched last year's squad. Defensively challenged, the Wildcats have been blown out in a few league games. 

AAC: The league as a whole isn't very good. It's best team is ineligible and its flagship program, UConn, has been uninspiring. The Huskies are 4-3 in league play. They've been a poor offensive team, coming in 127th in Adjusted0. As of today, they look like a borderline tournament team.

Also, the Mountain West is as bad as it's ever been. A five bid league a few years ago, the league is a one-bid league.

Friday Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed

North Carolina (ACC) vs TSouth(SWAC)/MTStMarys(NEC)

Oklahoma (B12) vs Hampton(MEAC)/Navy (Pat)

Xavier vs Montanta (Bsky)

Kansas vs New Mexico St (WAC)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Iowa (B1G) vs N.Florida(Asun)

Villanova (Beast) vs UNC Ashville(Bsouth)

Providence vs TexasA&M-CC (Sland)

Virginia vs Yale (Ivy)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Virginia vs Kent St (MAC)

Texas A&M (SEC) vs UAB (Cusa)

Michigan State vs Belmont (OVC)

Maryland vs Hofstra (CAA)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Purdue vs Stony Brook (Aest)

Louisville vs Chattanooga (SoCon)

Kentucky vs UC-Irvine (Bwest)

West Virginia vs S.Dakota St (Summit)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Dayton vs UALR (Sbelt)

Oregon (P12) vs Florida State/George Washington

Miami vs Syracuse/Vanderbilt

USC  vs Washington

6 seed vs 11 seed

Baylor vs Valparasio (Horizon)

South Carolina vs Cincinnti (AAC)

Wichita St (Mvalley) vs Seton Hall

Arizona vs San Diego St (Mwest)

7 seed vs 10 seed

Indiana vs Florida

Notre Dame vs Monmouth (MAAC)

Utah vs St. Joseph's

Texas vs Butler

8 seed vs 9 seed

St. Mary's (WCC) vs Gonzaga

California vs VCU (A10)

Duke vs Colorado

Michigan vs Pittsburgh

First Four Out

Boise State

Texas Tech

Clemson

UCLA

Next Four Out

Ohio State

LSU

Georgetown

Connecticut

Also Considered

Alabama

Arizona State

Georgia Tech

Oregon State

Georgia

BYU

Wake Forest

St. Bonaventure

Rhode Island

Virginia Tech

Evansville

Mississippi

Creighton

S. Illinois

Davidson

Tulsa

Wisconsin

Kansas State

Stanford

Duke Defense Minus Amile Jefferson

Ask and you shall receive. 

http://dukereport.com/duke-basketball/duke-basketball-what-the-amile-jefferson-injury-means-for-the-blue-devils-daldridge/

Here's a link that notes Duke was 40th in AdjustedD prior to the Jefferson injury. That was amongst the worst of the top teams but not a number that couldn't be overcome.

As of today, they're 150th. That's one and done territory.  Sorry, Brian

Wednesday Notes

Rough couple game for Duke as they've now lost 4 of 5.  I'm curious to know their defensive effciency with Jefferson versus without them.  Kurly?   Can you help here?

Also near the top Kansas and Indiana lost.  The Kansas loss was somewhat understandable since the Big 12 is so good but their reign of terror at the top may be coming to an end.

As for Indiana they lost on the road to Wisconsin which in my opinion is going to be the first crack in which will ultimately cost Tom Crean his job.  Their only game against a ranked opponent this year was against Duke and they got creamed.   It's not going to be a good upcoming 6 weeks in Bloomington.

As for Wisconsin, please temper your expectations on a bid come March.  Sure they are back to .500 and have a top 70 RPI but they are still on the outside looking in.  In fact, they are at the front door, and that front door is locked, and they don't have a key, and even if they had a key there's a long hallway full of Hawkeye's and Boilermakers, and Wolverines, and Turtles trying to prevent them from getting to the next door.

Texas Tech is overrated.  That is all.

Texas A&M

I think the last time I wrote about the Aggies was when Khris Middleton was still their, so it's been some time. That said, this team has quietly risen to 5th in the nation in the polls and 7th in KenPom.

Head Coach Billy Kennedy has done a good job assembling talent at College Station during his tenure and it's paying off this year. They're a defensive-minded team, 7th overall in defensive efficiency. Teams only have an effective fg% of 45.6%, 29th best. What they do best is force turnovers. They have a turnover % of 24%, 7th best and a steal % of 11.2%,  24th. The only area of concern is defensive rebounding. That's 234rd in the nation.

Offensively, they have a solid effective fg% of 53.4. While they don't do a good job eliminating 2nd chances, they do offset that a bit by being a good offensive rebounding team. Their offensive rebounding is 35%, 45 th best. They can be sloppy with the ball at times but isn't a drastic concern.

If you've seen any notes about this team, you're well aware this is a senior laden squad. Jalen Jones and Danuel House are the primary scoring threats. The backcourt is run by fellow seniors, Alex Caruso & Anthony Collins. Though he's not a volume shooter, Collins is 52% from 3 and 26-26 from the FT line so far.

A&M is the class of an improving, yet still underwhelming SEC. They have the makeup to make a deep run in March and are favorites in the rest of their games. Going undefeated in conference play seems like a longshot with trips to Vandy, Arkansas (tonight) and LSU on the docket but they get BBN at home. They also play Iowa State (part of the Big XII-SEC Challenge) at home this weekend in what should be a real good game.

Monday Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed

North Carolina (ACC) vs TSouth(SWAC)/MTStMarys(NEC)

Kansas vs Hampton(MEAC)/Navy (Pat)

Oklahoma (B12) vs Montanta (Bsky)

Xavier vs Omaha (Summit)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Iowa (B1G) vs N.Florida(Asun)

Texas A&M (SEC) vs New Mexico St (WAC)

Villanova (Beast) vs UNC Ashville(Bsouth)

Providence vs TexasA&M-CC (Sland)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Virginia vs Princeton (Ivy)

Iowa State vs Kent St (MAC)

Purdue vs UAB (Cusa)

Maryland vs Belmont (OVC)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Michigan State vs Hofstra (CAA)

Louisville vs Chattanooga (SoCon)

Kentucky vs UC-Irvine (Bwest)

West Virginia vs Stony Brook (Aest)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Dayton vs UALR (Sbelt)

Arizona vs Boise State/Texas Tech

Oregon vs Tulsa (AAC)

Miami vs Butler/Washington

6 seed vs 11 seed

Indiana vs Valparasio (Horizon)

Duke vs Cincinnti

Notre Dame vs Seton Hall

USC  vs San Diego St (Mwest)

7 seed vs 10 seed

Baylor vs Monmouth (MAAC)

South Carolina vs St. Joseph's

Wichita St (Mvalley) vs George Washington

Pittsburgh vs Gonzaga

8 seed vs 9 seed

Texas vs VCU (A10)

St. Mary's (WCC) vs Colorado

California vs Florida

Utah vs Michigan

First Four Out

UCLA

Vanderbilt

Stanford

Syracuse

Next Four Out

Florida State

Kansas State

Clemson

Connecticut

Also Considered

Alabama

Arizona State

Georgia Tech

Oregon State

Georgia

BYU

Wake Forest

St. Bonaventure

Georgetown

Ohio State

Evansville

Mississippi

Creighton

LSU

Rhode Island

Virginia Tech

Northwestern

S. Illinois

Davidson

The 10

1. Oklahoma - Lose at Iowa State but run Baylor off their floor. 

2. Iowa - They've been brilliant this year and some pundits compared them to last year's Wisconsin team which infuriated Badger fans. I'm all for this comparison

3. North Carolina - They're only up 3 at the moment at Virginia Tech, so I'm sure they'll lose.

4. Villanova - Still one of 3 teams with a top 20 offense and defense. Ben Bentil lit them up this afternoon.

5. Texas A&M - More on them this week.

6. Kansas - Struggled again this week, losing big at Oklahoma State and then holding off Texas at home. 

7. Maryland - They got Izzoned last night. Thought they were the better team.

8. Xavier - The G'Town game was weird and concerning for X fans but I think it's an anomaly as part of a long season.

9. West Virginia - They may have peaked. Offensive numbers are falling.

10. Wichita State - Remeber these guys?  They've been playing very well now that they're healthy.

Going: Everyone at some point

Coming: Arizona 

Sunday Notes

It was mre of the same over the past two days as two top 10 teams lose, Maryland and Arizona.  Neither were bad loses as they were on the road and against tourney teams, California and Michigan State.

The bigger news of the weekend, besides the storm, is a couple teams "righted the ship" with wins.  As mentioned above, Michigan State got a big win, but in addition a couple teams that have dropped multiple seed lines finally got a W.  Duke, Miami, and Kentucky were all able to stop the free fall in the bracket.  Duke still sits in the 6-7 seed line but they got good news with Amile Jefferson now out of the walking boot.  Still no time table on return but we are still 6 weeks to conference tournament play and I can guarantee this is not a team you want to face with a Plumlee/Jefferson frontcourt.  Boy, I never thought I'd ever type that.

On the mid-major side Valpo probably got it's only loss it can afford Friday night.  They basically need to win out until the conference championship for an at large bid and even then it's 50/50.  Monmouth is the same situation.

7 weeks to Selection Sunday.

Purdue

Last Saturday, I gave you a fraud alert in Louisville. This week, it's Purdue who has some similarities to the Cardinals but profile to me as a better team.

Defensively, this is the 5th best team in defensive efficiency and not a surprise in the Matt Painter era. Lead by big man AJ Hammons, Purdue is a tough team to run offense against.

Opponents have an effective fg% of 41.3%. That is 2nd best. They do this without fouling. Teams FTA/FGA rate is 27.1, making Purdue 23rd best at not fouling. They also clean the glass. Opponents only rebound 23.4% of misses. That puts Purdue 10th.

Hammons is 62nd in the nation in defensive rebounding %. Freshman front court mate, Caleb Swanigan is 30th. Hammons is a good shot blocker as well and can erase a lot of defensive breakdowns. Teams only shoot 39% from 2 against Purdue. That's 3rd best.

They're not as good on offense but they do enough well to make a deep run possible. They have an effective fg% of 53.3%, 45th. They also rebound on offense. They're 25th in offensive rebounding %. They also share the ball. They're 10th in fgm/a.

How far they go will depend on how much the guards help them. The group isn't spectacular but does enough. Sr. Johnny Hill is a solid defender. He can be sloppy with ball but does enough good things on offense. Sophomore PJ Thompson is 3rd in the nation in ORating.  Keep an eye on him and how he progresses as B1G play moves along.

At worst, they look like a Sweet 16 team with a legitimate shot at a regional final. Guard play isn't as strong as the interior but not as worrisome as I heard from some national pundits. This might be the best team in the B1G.

Friday's Bracket

1 seed vs 16 seed

North Carolina (ACC) vs TSouthern(SWAC)/Wagner(NEC)

Villanova (Beast) vs Hampton(MEAC)/St. Peter's(MAAC)

Kansas vs Navy (Pat)

Oklahoma vs Cal-Bakersfield(WAC)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Maryland vs UCF (AAC)

Iowa (B1G) vs Weber St (Bsky)

Texas A&M (SEC) vs UNC Ashville(Bsouth)

Xavier vs N.Florida(Asun)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Arizona vs Stony Brook (Aest)

Purdue vs UAB (Cusa)

Kentucky vs Belmont (OVC)

Iowa State vs TexasA&M-CC (Sland)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Providence vs Princeton (Ivy)

Louisville vs Chattanooga (SoCon)

Virginia vs Kent St (MAC)

West Virginia vs Will&Mary (Col)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Baylor (B12) vs UT-ARlington (Sbelt)

South Carolina vs UC-Irvine (Bwest)

USC  vs Washington (P12)

Dayton vs IPFW (Summit)

6 seed vs 11 seed

Miami vs Texas Tech/Seton Hall

Indiana vs UCLA/Vanderbilt

Michigan State vs St. Joseph's

Oregon vs San Diego St (Mwest)

7 seed vs 10 seed

Duke vs Valparasio (Horizon)

Notre Dame vs Michigan

Wichita St (Mvalley) vs Gonzaga

Pittsburgh vs VCU (A10)

8 seed vs 9 seed

George Washington vs Butler

Texas vs Colorado

California vs Florida

Utah vs St. Mary's (WCC)

First Four Out

Monmouth

Cincinnti

Boise State

Syracuse

Next Four Out

Florida State

Tulsa

Clemson

Connecticut

Also Considered

Stanford

Alabama

Kansas State

Arizona State

Georgia Tech

Oregon State

Georgia

BYU

Wake Forest

St. Bonaventure

Georgetown

Ohio State

Evansville

Mississippi

Creighton

LSU

Rhode Island

Virginia Tech

Northwestern

S. Illinois

Davidson

ARLR