Marquette takes to the court in a pre-season scrimmage tonight and begins the second season of the Wojo era.
A year ago, expectations were low. They had lost their best players and expectations were the most improved player would be Deonte Burton. By league play, Burton and John Dawson were gone and a team with little depth to begin with slogged through its worst season in decades.
There were signs of hope, though. Wojo had secured a commitment from 5-star F Henry Ellenson of Rice Lake over Michigan State and Kentucky. Along with Matt Heldt of Neenah, Wojo would also land Haanif Cheatham, Traci Carter & Sacar Anim. Marquette will also have Henry's brother Wally added to the mix.
Where does that leave us heading into 2015-16? For starters, the team should be vastly improved. KenPom has them 54th and Luke Winn and Dan Hanner have them as one of the Final 4 in. Brian has them on the outside looking in and they'll certainly be a bubble team all year.
The roster should be more dynamic. The front court has the potential to be very good. Luke Fischer returns healthy after playing most of last season injured. Henry Ellenson is a projected lottery pick and will often be the best player on the court. Depth is an issue. Freshman Matt Heldt will see some minutes but any contribution will be a bonus. Early reports indicate freshman Sacar Anim may see time at the 4 and Sandy Cohen and Jajuan Johnson can play the 3.
The back court will be all new. Matt Carlino and his barrage of 3's are gone and as is much maligned PG Derrick Wilson. Duane Wilson will play the 2. I wouldn't be surprised if he's the 2nd best player on the roster. From what I've read on Marquette, I really think he's being undervalued. Freshmen Traci Carter and Haanif Cheatham seem the most likely to run the point. That'll be a heavy burden for them. Carter's makeup and game remind me some of Trey Burke. That's big boy comparison at this level and probably wishful thinking but I think he'll be very good sooner than later.
The bench should be more productive. Wally Ellenson should be the energy guy. Sandy Cohen will likely come off the bench and he shot it well this summer. He's also an explosive player to the rim. He can be an offensive spark plug. By the end of the year, I suspect Anim and Heldt will have pretty limited minutes barring injury.
Marquette has an issue and it's the schedule. It's a pretty awful non-conference slate and will be an issue come March. They can't afford a bad loss during the stretch. Anything less than 10-8 in conference and they'll be hard pressed to return to the tournament.
This should be a really fun team to follow. At the beginning of last year, they were one of the worst defensive teams in America. This year, early models show them being much better defensively and much better offensively. Ellenson and Fischer will be loads in the paint and Ellenson can drag defenders out as he can shoot the rock. They have guys that can get to the rim. If Cohen and Wilson can shoot from deep consistently, they'll be dangerous working inside-out.
The guys that can take this team to a higher level will be Fischer, Johnson & Carter. We didn't see a healthy Fischer last year and he was pretty productive despite that and constant double teams. He shouldn't have that issue with Henry around. Jajuan Johnson was a top-50 recruit. Some project a bit of a breakout from him. If that's the case, that makes them more potent. That said, until we see it, counting on him to take a jump isn't a lock. Carter will have to protect the ball running the point. He turned it over too much during their summer tour of Europe and we shouldn't be surprised if he has bad games. The hope is, there are more good nights than bad.
I have them at 5th in the Big East. That spot is over Providence based on seemingly better depth. It'll take an effort to break the top-4. Fans will have to be patient. I can see some bad nights and unexpected losses in conference but with a young team, that'll be expected. With that, there will probably be some bonus wins in league, too.
After a dip, the arrow is pointed up for Marquette
