The Valley

I'm jumping in on Brain's countdown and doing a quick peak at the Missouri Valley Conference.

Like so many others, the Valley finds itself in a period of transition, losing long-time member Creighton and adding former horizon member, Loyola (IL).  On the court, the swap is a net loss but a trip to Chicago probably surpasses a trip to Omaha.  The Valley had arguably its best seasoni n history as Wichita State joined Butler & VCU as a party crasher at the Final Four, more than holding its own against eventual champion Louisville.  Creighton takes POY Doug McDermott with it to the new Big East but the Valley should still be a competetive and talented conference.

The general consensus is, the top of the Valley should look like this:

1. Wichita State
2.  Indiana State
3.  Northern Iowa

Evansville and Missouri State should make up the middle with Bradley in the mix as well.  Don't be surprised if the top 3 slip up and lose a game to one or more of these teams.

Northern Iowa will be led by two juniors, G Deon Mitchell and F Seth Tuttle.  Northern Iowa has Iowa State on the schedule in Cedar Falls as part of the Iowa Hy-Vee Classic (Iowa will play MVC member, Drake that night), VCU a week later at Cedar Falls and then travel a week later to Virginia.  UNI will also play at George Mason and have Iona at home prior to conference play.  It's a good test before to conference play. 

Indiana State will be led by potential Valley POY, Jake Odum.  Joining him will be F, Manny Arop.  The Sycamores have a rebuilding Belmont on the schedule at Belmonth a return date and travel to Notre Dame, both before Thanksgiving.  They're playing in the Great Alaska Shootout as well but the participants are mediocre.  Should they make the final, they'd get probably Harvard or UWGB.  Winning here would be recommended should they need an at-large.  They also travel to St. Louis in December.  I like UNI's non-conference schedule better.

The schedule and how those teams play in those games will go a long way to determine whether the Valley gets two bids this year.  Of course, either team will be capable of winning Arch Madness.

The clear favorite will be Wichita State.  The Shockers return plenty of key pieces and add a few as well.  Coach Gregg Marshall brings back pre-season Valley POY, F Cleanthony Early and will have a talented and experienced backcourt with sophomore SG, Ron Baker, PG Fred VanFleet and junior G, Tekele Cotton rounding out the triumvarite.  The frontcourt should be bolstered by 3 newcomers, UL-Lafayette transfer Kadeem Coleby, JUCO transfer Darius Carter and talented freshman, Shaquille Morris.

I don't think Wichita State will struggle with success or a "target" squarely on their back.  They have the most talent but a few head scatching losses in conference won't surprise me.  When it's all said and done, it'll take a pretty epic collapse or a slew of injuries to keep Wichita State from the tournament.

Whether or not the Valley gets two entrants into March Madness this season probably centers around how Indiana State and UNI play out of league.  If they struggle, it'll probably take a win at Arch Madness for the league to get two bids.  I don't see another team surprising anyone and taking a leap towards the top.  The league is still very good but there is no Creighton to pair with Wichita State this season.  Still, if you're a hoopnik, Valley basketball should be lots of fun.