The Ever Changing A-10

There is a lot to dislike about conference realignment.  Mis-matched divisions, lost rivalries and the constant shifting in the non-BCS leagues.

A year ago, the A-10 had a fantastic season.  VCU, St. Louis, Butler, La Salle & Temple all repped the A-10 in the NCAA Tournament with each winning its opening matchup and La Salle made the Sweet 16 while Butler & Temple lost in the final minute in the round of 32.

Flash forward to today and Butler, along with A-10 perennial contender Xavier have left for the new Big East and Charlotte and Temple left for Conference USA and the AAC to chase football dreams.  George Mason moves  from the Colonial and Davidson joins next year.  More change could be afoot as rumors still swirl the new Big East could be eyeing St. Louis, Richmond, Dayton and/or VCU.  But that's later.  Here's a brief look at this year.

The Sleeper:  I've been high on Rhode Island from the day they hired Dan Hurley who spurned Rutgers in the off-season to stay with the Rams.  Will the Rams make the NCAA tournament this year?  It's doubtful but they should get on the bubble for a portion of the season.  They have the league's returning leading scorer in G Xavier Munford and add 3 transfers to the roster that should give them depth and better talent.  Keep an eye on Texas Tech transfer, sophomore Biggie Minnis and freshmen G, E.C. Matthews, a top-100 recruit.  The Rams probably don't dance this year but by next year will be a legit title contender in the A-10.  Buy now,

The Middle:  A conference is sometimes only as good as its middle and the A-10 has plenty of talented teams that fall into this category.  These teams should hover around the bubble and could go either way.  I wouldn't be surprised if two of the following 5 make the A-10 a five-bid league again.

Those teams in no general order are George Mason, UMass, Dayton, Richmond and St. Joe's. 

George Mason moves over from the Colonial and coach Paul Hewitt has the Patriots trending upwards.  They return all five starters, all of which are juniors or seniors.  UMass is lead by senior PG Chaz Williams, a likely 1st team A-10 player and add Western Kentuicky transfer G Derrick Gordon who was the Hilltoppers leading scorer in his only season.  Dayton lost a lot of close games last year which saw them shut out of all post-season play but have the A-10's top recruiting class.  A lot of their minutes were played by freshmen last year.  Look for a step forward.  Richmond and St. Joe's round out the group, both coming off .500 seasons.  The Hawks may be more talented of the two but if Richmond can figure out how to win on the road, both figure to be in the mix.

The Top 3:  Heading into the season, the top 3 are not in doubt.  They are expected to be VCU, SLU and La Salle.  VCU is the clear-cut favorite, remarkably for the first time under Shaka Smart.  Will they handle expectations?  It'll help to add graduate transfer Terrance Shannon from Florida State who was cleared to play immediately.  They still have plenty of recognizable faces in Rob Brandenburg, Treveon Graham, Briante Weber and Juvonte Reddic.  They look like the easy front runner to me.

That's not to say St. Louis won't be a formidable foe.  The Billikens are a bit more settled as head coach. Jim Crews had the interim tag removed.  He has Jordair Jett and Dwayne Evans back as well.  The Billikens calling card is defense and will be again this season.  There weren't many better on that side of the ball last year.  Bonus fun:  They have Tanner Bronson on staff.

La Salle was the surprise of the group last year, in that they made the Sweet 16 when you'd probably have guessed one of the other 4 but the Explorers rode a 3-headed backcourt monster of Garland, Duren & Galloway.  Ramon Galloway has graduated but Tyreek Duren and Tyrone Garland return as does senior guard, Sam Mills.  Look for La Salle to make back-to-back dances for the first time in decades.

Bottom Line:  The A-10 looks like a certain 3-team league.  I think UMass is pretty certain as well but we will have to see how the losses of Butler and Temple effect the league.  Xavier leaving hurts as well but Butler sort of took their spot in the pecking order last year as Xavier had a rare down season.  I originally thought 5 bids wouldn't shock me but it seems unlikely.  Possible?  Yes.  Likely?  No.  Still, the A-10 should be a fun league for people who love college basketball.