Not that it ultimately matters at all, but I'd put the American ahead of the Mountain West Conference simply because the top half of the American has 3 of KenPom's top 20 teams and a 4th in Cincinnati in the 40s that I think will be better by the end of the season. The 5-10 of the American will be better as well. Brian mentioned SMU who is trending up and keep an eye on Central Florida. UCF could be a surprise team this year. Houston, Temple and Rutgers will be capable of winning some games they shouldn't as well.
The top 3 teams are Louisville, Memphis and UConn. Louisville is a legitimate threat to win back-to-back titles and Memphis and UConn are Sweet 16 caliber teams. The conference is a bit of a jumble and Louisville is in for only one season and the rest would bolt as soon as another BCS conference would call, but at least for this season, it should be an interesting conference with lots of good basketball.
MOUNTAIN WEST NOTES-
The Mountain West puffed its chest throughout 2012-13 as its RPI reigned near the top. Justifiably so, 5 teams went dancing and then...SPLAT. New Mexico and perennial underachiever Steve Alford got bounced in its opening game against Harvard as a 3-seed. UNLV, a sleeper Final 4 contender by many, including yours truly, lost its opening game to California. Boise State lost in the play-in and San Diego State got run off the court by Florida Gulf Coast. Only Larry Eustachy's Colorado State could hold their heads high, beating Missouri before getting trounced by eventual champ, Louisville.
Four bids seems likely. New Mexico is the clear favorite with new coach Craig Neal and POY candidate, Sr. G, Kendall Williams. The Lobos also return, big man Alex Kirk who lead the league in rebounding and blocked shots. They lose Tony Snell but have JUCO All-American, Deshawn Delaney joining the roster. Look for Delaney to be a big key to Lobo success. The Lobos can be as good as last year. The fans would like a few wins in March, though.
Boise State is the next team on KP's rankings (His rankings don't include frosh or transfers). UNLV is probably more talented but questions exist in my mind about the coaching. Dave Rice has accumulated talent but no success out of the Mountain West. Boise State has five starters returning. Between the two, I'd look for Boise State to be a bigger thorn in the side for New Mexico than UNLV.
San Diego State loses Jamal Franklin and Chase Tapley but Xavier Thames returns and the Aztecs add transfer Josh Davis from Tulane. Look for SDSU to rely on some young players, so a sluggish start shouldn't surprise anyone. More importantly will be whether they improve through the conference slate.
Utah State is the wild card. The former WAC-member was a constant WAC contender and have some pieces that should allow them to contend this season as a first year member of the Mtn. West. Jarred Shaw has an opportunity to be an All-Conference player and will be a force in the post for the Aggies.
I'm not counting out Colorado State who may have the league's best coach in Larry Eustachy. They lose nearly everyone but look for a big season out of Mountain West 6th Man of the Year, Daniel Bejarano. Wyoming faded in conference play last year but has enough talent to beat some of the top of the conference teams and keep themselves in the conversation. Neither is likely to dance but will have something to say about who does out of the MWC.
This is a put up or shut up type of year throughout the conference. Can they find success in March as a whole? Can New Mexico break through the first weekend? Can UNLV have results that match the perceived talent? The league continues to attract good coaches and good players. Time to get some results.
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