Wednesday, February 29, 2012
South Florida
Huge..Huge win for South Florida tonight. They go from last 4 in (or just out in other people's bracket) to last 8 in. I'll do more analysis tomorrow but I'm thinking they leapfrog both Seton Hall and Connecticut. Cincinnati had a big win tonight as well. It does not bode well for the Huskies at this moment.
Conference Tounament 2-29 Edition Continued
Ohio Valley Conference:
The prohibitive favorite is Murray State who should make it regardless of what happens in the conference tournament. Brian has them on the 6 line as of Sunday.
Other(s): Tennessee State could steal a bid by winning this thing and they do have the only win over the Racers this year. Bubble teams should be pulling hard for Murray State or the OVC will snag two bids.
FACT: The OVC champ has upset higher seeds in the first round (non-play-in garbage division) in the last two years. Murray State beat Vandy in 2010 and Morehead State beat Louisville last year. Prior to that, no OVC had won a tournament game since 1989.
West Coast Conference:
This should be a wildly entertaining tournament. As of Sunday, the WCC should put 3 teams in the dance, easily besting the Pac-12. Gonzaga and St. Mary's appear to be locks. BYU is straddling the fence and probably would be wise to not lose to the winner of San Diego/Pepperdine.
Sleeper(s): Loyola Marymount winning would probably knock BYU out but would also make the bubble teams sweat a little more. The bubbles want one of the top 3 to win.
The prohibitive favorite is Murray State who should make it regardless of what happens in the conference tournament. Brian has them on the 6 line as of Sunday.
Other(s): Tennessee State could steal a bid by winning this thing and they do have the only win over the Racers this year. Bubble teams should be pulling hard for Murray State or the OVC will snag two bids.
FACT: The OVC champ has upset higher seeds in the first round (non-play-in garbage division) in the last two years. Murray State beat Vandy in 2010 and Morehead State beat Louisville last year. Prior to that, no OVC had won a tournament game since 1989.
West Coast Conference:
This should be a wildly entertaining tournament. As of Sunday, the WCC should put 3 teams in the dance, easily besting the Pac-12. Gonzaga and St. Mary's appear to be locks. BYU is straddling the fence and probably would be wise to not lose to the winner of San Diego/Pepperdine.
Sleeper(s): Loyola Marymount winning would probably knock BYU out but would also make the bubble teams sweat a little more. The bubbles want one of the top 3 to win.
Tonight's Bubble Games
Teams that would be out with a loss:
South Florida at Louisville
Texas vs Oklahoma
Miami at North Carolina State
Teams that could potentially be out with a loss:
Northwestern vs Ohio State
Cincinnati vs Marquette
Teams that could jump in with a win:
Mississippi State at South Carolina
Colorado State vs UNLV
Teams that need to win to stay in the conversation:
St. Joseph’s at St. Bonaventure
Dayton at Richmond
South Florida at Louisville
Texas vs Oklahoma
Miami at North Carolina State
Teams that could potentially be out with a loss:
Northwestern vs Ohio State
Cincinnati vs Marquette
Teams that could jump in with a win:
Mississippi State at South Carolina
Colorado State vs UNLV
Teams that need to win to stay in the conversation:
St. Joseph’s at St. Bonaventure
Dayton at Richmond
Conference Tournament Previews - 2/29
There are 4 conference tournaments that kick off today. I’ll be breaking down two of them this morning.
Atlantic Sun:
Favorite – Belmont Bruins – RPI = 65. Belmont has been at the top of the Atlantic Sun food chain all year long. The season started with a 1 point loss to Duke and for the most part Belmont has been the prohibitive favorite to grab the auto-bid all year long. Their conference losses have been at USC Upstate and against Lipscomb. I don’t see how Belmont doesn’t win the auto-bid easily
Potential Upset – Mercer Bears. Their lone game against Belmont was a 1 point home loss. If things break right they will meet in the conference championship with a chance of revenge
Patriot:
Favorite – Bucknell Bison – RPI of 81. Bucknell, currently a 15 seed, has looked the part most of the season but lately things have been slipping. Only 2-2 in their last 4 they’ve opened up the door for another team to grab the Patriot auto-bid
Potential Upset - LeHigh Mountain Hawks. 11-3 in conference they split the season series with Bucknell. With only 1 loss in their last 10 they may be peaking at the right time. If they win they’d be looking at a 16 seed at best.
Atlantic Sun:
Favorite – Belmont Bruins – RPI = 65. Belmont has been at the top of the Atlantic Sun food chain all year long. The season started with a 1 point loss to Duke and for the most part Belmont has been the prohibitive favorite to grab the auto-bid all year long. Their conference losses have been at USC Upstate and against Lipscomb. I don’t see how Belmont doesn’t win the auto-bid easily
Potential Upset – Mercer Bears. Their lone game against Belmont was a 1 point home loss. If things break right they will meet in the conference championship with a chance of revenge
Patriot:
Favorite – Bucknell Bison – RPI of 81. Bucknell, currently a 15 seed, has looked the part most of the season but lately things have been slipping. Only 2-2 in their last 4 they’ve opened up the door for another team to grab the Patriot auto-bid
Potential Upset - LeHigh Mountain Hawks. 11-3 in conference they split the season series with Bucknell. With only 1 loss in their last 10 they may be peaking at the right time. If they win they’d be looking at a 16 seed at best.
Daily Bubble Watch
Bubble Out:
Weber State - no longer the Big Sky leader after the loss last night
Xavier - a tough road game at St. Louis turned into a loss and the Musketeers are now on the outside looking in.
Bubble In:
Montana - beat Weber State to win the Big Sky and the auto-bid for now
South Florida - it came down to either Mississippi State or South Florida here. I have more faith that USF will right their ships so they get the nod.
Weber State - no longer the Big Sky leader after the loss last night
Xavier - a tough road game at St. Louis turned into a loss and the Musketeers are now on the outside looking in.
Bubble In:
Montana - beat Weber State to win the Big Sky and the auto-bid for now
South Florida - it came down to either Mississippi State or South Florida here. I have more faith that USF will right their ships so they get the nod.
Monday, February 27, 2012
Horizon Preview
At the beginning of the year the Horizon League was looked at as a three horse race. Prognosticators had pegged Butler, Cleveland State or Detroit to win the league but somewhere along the way good old Valparaiso got in the way. The 1 seed, and double bye, was gobbled up by the Bryce Drew led Crusaders by two games over the 2 seeded Snorks of Cleveland State. Even though Valpo got the 1 seed it would not surprise me if either Cleveland State or Detroit ended up with the auto-bid. Right now Valparaiso is a 15 seed in my bracket and none of the potential upset teams will be higher than that seeding. This is a 1 bid league no matter what happens and that can be had is at best is matchup against the likes of North Carolina.
Hello, Conference Tourney Time
Conference tournaments start this week with the Big South kicking off the action tonight. With the beginning of each tournament, we'll look at the expected winner and what upsets could mean to bubble teams.
BIG SOUTH:
The prohibitive favorite is UNC-Asheville who projects as a 16 seed play-in, in Brian's latest bracket. Even with another team emerging, it won't mean anything in the big picture as it's a one-bid league.
Coastal Carolina, school of Dustin Johnson, would be the likely team to upset Asheville. The Chanticleers have not been to the dance since 1993 when they got waxed by the Fab Five. FYI, they are coached by Cliff Ellis who had some success at Clemson & Auburn.
Not counting play-in victories and I don't because I'm a miserable SOB, the Big South only has one win in tournament history from 2007 when Winthrop beat Notre Dame.
BIG SOUTH:
The prohibitive favorite is UNC-Asheville who projects as a 16 seed play-in, in Brian's latest bracket. Even with another team emerging, it won't mean anything in the big picture as it's a one-bid league.
Coastal Carolina, school of Dustin Johnson, would be the likely team to upset Asheville. The Chanticleers have not been to the dance since 1993 when they got waxed by the Fab Five. FYI, they are coached by Cliff Ellis who had some success at Clemson & Auburn.
Not counting play-in victories and I don't because I'm a miserable SOB, the Big South only has one win in tournament history from 2007 when Winthrop beat Notre Dame.
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