So, the ACC

The ACC is bad this year. It’s Duke and who knows. James Madison beat Virginia. DePaul went to Louisville and won last night. So, is the ACC historically bad or is this what the league is now? The results surprised me.

I looked at KenPom conference rankings for the last decade or so and this is what we found. I broke it down into 3 distinct periods.

Covid Years

2021-22 +12.17 5th in the nation 

2020-21 +13.22 5th in the nation

2019-20 +11.45 4th in the nation

Post-Expansion

2018-19 +15.33 3rd in the nation; National Champion Virginia

2017-18 +15.71 2nd in the nation

2016-17 +16.02 2nd in the nation; National Champion UNC

2015-16 +16.70 2nd in the nation; Runner-Up UNC, Syracuse Final 4

2014-15 +13.61 3rd in the nation; National Champion Duke

2013-14 +13.04 3rd in the nation 

Pre-Expansion (Limited to 3 years, post-Duke title)

2012-13 +11.09 6th in the nation 

2011-12 +10.02 5th in the nation

2010-11 +13.16 3rd in the nation

My thesis as I thought about this was expansion was a losing bet by the league. I think I’m wrong and it’s as simple as a covid-issue or the cyclical nature of sports. It’s simply possible the league is down. UNC is in a mini-reboot and Louisville is finally paying the price for its many transgressions. Syracuse is worth a closer case study and I doubt their long term prognosis post-Boeheim is good in the ACC.

Virginia is having its Maryland post-title hangover right now as well. It’s  possible and maybe likely they’ve peaked as a program under Tony Bennett. That’s not a shot at Bennett but it wouldn’t be the first time the mountain was climbed and there was no return.

The league has a lot of mediocrity right now and there’s an opportunity for someone to rise up and challenge Tobacco Road. Georgia Tech, Maryland and Wake Forest have done it in the past. I just don’t know who it is right now.

The 3 years prior to expansion weren’t great. The league was better post-expansion and for whatever reason has stagnated the last 3 years. It’s possible revenue is or becomes an issue that continues this stagnation. The ACC TV deal is dwarfed by what the Big 14 and SEC get. While that is seen as primarily a football dividing force, those leagues can afford better facilities and coaches. The league probably should be weary of being raided, despite contracts.

The ACC is in a weird spot. The basketball league, it’s bread and butter is having a bad year. Whatever the cause, it’s something that needs fixing sooner than later.

The Maryland Problem

Mark Turgeon stepped down as coach at Maryland today after a decade on the sideline. Turgeon replaced Gary Williams who had been at Maryland for 20 years.

The Terps were co-champs of the Big 14 in 2020, the highlight of the Turgeon era. Did you remember that? Don’t worry, most people didn’t. He also had one Sweet 16, back in 2016. That was the Terps only trip to the 2nd weekend since 2003.

Turgeon isn’t a bad coach. He was just a weird fit in Maryland. He took the the job before the move to the Big 14 and that had to change his approach to the job and it never seemed to have any momentum. He had success at Wichita State and Texas A&M and it seems plausible something along those lines will make sense in the future. It was reported he actually wanted the Marquette job this past summer.

The bigger issue in this story is what is Maryland basketball in 2021? Before the move to the Big 14, Maryland was what Virginia is now, the foil to the blue bloods of Tobacco Road. Though Virginia doesn’t play the “world (ACC offices) is against us” game, they’ve seemlessly replaced Maryland in the role of foil. 

In the Big 14, they’re just another faceless team. They have no natural rival. The pocketbooks are fatter but the program the school prided itself on is a nondescript entity playing against Penn State and Nebraska on a random weeknight. Maryland-Duke, Maryland-UNC was must see TV. Can you name one time Maryland was a must see game in the Big 14? The answer is no.

Maryland isn’t a blue blood but they broke through and won a title this century. Florida, UVA and Baylor have done the same. It’s a small fraternity to be part of. They seem further away from getting back there than ever. Maybe they shouldn’t compete for a title every year but they should matter. They haven’t in a long time and I’m not sure they will as long as they’re just another uniform in a league they don’t belong. 

November OVERREACTIONS

 ACC:

Well, it’s Duke and a lot of okayish teams. The second best team has yet to emerge and at the bottom, Pitt is currently 199th in KenPom. Jeff Capel’s seat is hot enough to eject itself. The ACC is all about Duke this year. A gutsy win over Gonzaga on Friday night has Blue Devil fans with visions of glory and probably should have those. Paolo Banchero and Wendell Moore are a dynamic duo. The lack of 3-point shooting again is a potential problem and mystery in roster construction but they really protect the ball and are still 54th in effective fg%. Their the only contender from the ACC

Big East:

The Big East still looks like Villanova’s league but they have some depth issues that reared its head in losses to UCLA and Purdue. UConn could win the league. It’s between these two at the moment. The league needs to recruit better as there are a lot of one-and-done March teams. 

Big XII:

The Big XII is still setting the pace as the nation’s best league. Baylor doesn’t appear to have lost a step, though, their best win to date is over a flawed Michigan State team. Kansas will need to tighten up defensively.  The loss to Dayton is a head scratcher. This isn’t a very good Dayton team. Despite this, both KU and Baylor are legit contenders. Texas and Texas Tech profile early as second weekend teams. The rest of the league is good enough that there won’t be any easy outs.

SEC

My guess is Alabama’s loss to Iona won’t look terrible at the end of the year but it’s enough to give pause to overrating the Tide. At 23 in KenPom, that would make the Crimson Tide 7th best in the league! The top of the league is going to be a bloodbath. Whoever wins the regular season title will have earned it. Georgia and Missouri bring up the rear and are not good at all. Missouri has a home-loss to UMKC, 202nd in KenPom. Right now, the league doesn’t seem to have a legit threat to win it all but it’s going to be a damn fun regular season

Big 14

I might be wrong about how good Michigan is. Even in their wins, they’ve been unimpressive largely as they try and figure out what combos work. The good news for them is, Juwan Howard has proven adept at piecing the puzzle together. The best team in the league is Purdue and they are a legit title contender. There are 10 teams in the KenPom top 50, including Wisconsin at 31 who have their best player non-Caucasian since Alando Tucker in Jonathan Davis. Sadly, they will be a factor. I’m not sold on Maryland but Northwestern looks like a potential tourney team. 10 teams from this league in March is a legit thing. Minnesota and Nebraska are 100 and 103 in KenPom, the two worst teams. It won’t surprise me if they each stea a game or two that surprises people. Purdue and Michigan are title contenders but I’m going to be surprised if that is the case for Michigan on January 1.

Pac-12:

UCLA had a nice win over Villanova and then got destroyed by Gonzaga. They still project as a title contender but that Zags game was a beat down. Arizona of all teams, is the 2nd best in the league right now. Tommy Lloyd has come in blazing. They blew out Michigan after surviving Wichita State in overtime. The other 4 wins are over cupcakes but this is the kind of start to the season the Wildcats needed. USC looks like a second weekend team, as well. The league drops off precipitously after that with Oregon checking in at 52 and they look a lot worse than that. That may have been a short lived Pac-12 renaissance.

The Rest:

- Good luck figuring out Houston. They let Wisconsin jump out to a 40-20 lead on them in Vegas and then almost won the game, and probably should have. KenPom really likes them and they’d be on my short list of title contenders based solely on numbers. The defense is legit. I wouldn’t trust the offense, however. A lot of Virginia vines.

- As stated before the season, the WCC is good outside Gonzaga. St. Mary’s gagged against Wisconsin in Vegas but that’ll happen in slow tempo games. They have 4 legit March teams and as always, the Zags can cut down the nets.

- Memphis is the 3 fastest team in the nation and has KenPom’s 3rd best defense. If the offense catches up to the defense, they’ll be a problem. There are a lot of minutes being used by inefficient freshman. Can Penny clean that up? Keep an eye on that

Day 1 Overreactions

1. The ACC might be bad again this year. The Citadel thumped Pitt and it wasn’t close. Pitt was within single-digits for less than 5 minutes. Jeff Capel’s seat is hot. Miami (OH) beat Georgia Tech in Atlanta. Navy won at Virginia despite being 15.5 point dogs. They hadn’t beaten a ranked opponent since David Robinson was there 30 plus years ago.

2. On a pleasant note, Duke did manage to beat Kentucky in Coach Al’s final trip to MSG. A case is being made they have the number 1 player in the next NBA draft in Paolo Banchero.

3. The other game at MSG saw Kansas mop the floor against Michigan State. Tom Izzo already has a technical on the young season and given how his defense looked, many more await. Kansas looks as deep as they’ve been in awhile. The Big XII may be for naught but the league should be a battle all season.

4. On the local side, Brad Davison got a flop warning 12 minutes into his 76th season, proving you can’t teach new tricks to old dogs. Marquette unveiled a new, pressure-based defense and looked uneven at best in beating SIUE who lost its exhibition opener to a DII school a week ago. Marquette managed to score 88 but teams that get them into the half court will have the advantage as the Golden Eagles lack any consistent outside scoring.  How they progress with such a radical change in coaching will be fascinating to watch. Patrick Baldwin had 21 in his Panthers debut as UWM defeated North Dakota. UWM will get more coverage this year than in any recent time with Baldwin on the roster.

5. Michigan has 51 at half. Moussa Diabate is a name to know.

Tomorrow The Season Begins!

The blog has been pretty quiet leading up to the season and that’s due to me spending more time coaching football than preparing for College Basketball.  I do plan on getting things going later in the year and Bracketology will start in 2022.

 

At this point I’d be guessing at who my preseason Final Four will be but I don’t think you can go wrong with Michigan, UCLA, and Gonzaga being 3 of the 4.  I assume the last team will be a wildcard but Duke would be a great story!

Fearless and Bold 2021-22 Predictions Sure to be Wrong

The season starts this week. Probably time for some bold and fearless projections.

The Final Four

Michigan

Gonzaga 

Duke

Kansas 

National Title Game

Michigan over Gonzaga 

3 Teams That Might Be Overrated

Baylor 

Illinois

Kentucky 

3 Teams That Might Be Underrated

North Carolina

Indiana

Oregon

National Player of the Year

Hunter Dickinson, Michigan

2021-22 Early KenPom Analysis

KenPom updated yesterday and that means college basketball is right around the corner. What can we learn? Well, not much other than what leagues look potentially good, mediocre or bad. Let’s start with the teams.

The Top 10 looks familiar. Gonzaga, Michigan, Kansas, Baylor and Illinois are your top 5. Illinois surprises me but Cockburn, Curbelo and Frazier are a good 3 to start with. The top 10 is rounded out by Purdue, UCLA, Ohio State, Villanova and Duke. The rest of the top 20 has the usual suspects. Texas Tech at 12 with a new coach will be interesting and Memphis at 16 will be as well. Put up or shut up time for Penny. Maryland is 18 and Mark Turgeon needs some March success. At least in October, it looks like this team has a chance.

An astute reader would not the proliferation of Big 14 teams. There are 7 of them in the top 30 and Indiana is knocking at the door at 31. The league is going to be a bloodbath. I believe Michigan will be the team to cut down the nets next April to end the embarrassing stretch of no national champs at 21 years.

The ACC appears in for another down season. Duke checks in at 10 but you have to go to 24 for the next team in FSU and Notre Dame is the only other top 30 team at 27. Even KenPom darling Virginia is 45.

Something else that caught my attention was the WCC coming in at 7 in conference rankings. The 6th rated league as of pre-season is the Big East which is actually closer to then number 1 Big 14 than the 7 WCC but the league might be worth some late nights this winter. Sadly, it also shows how much of an uphill fight mid-majors have today. Still, it’s ahead of the American.

A deeper dive into the WCC shows the Zags at 1, no surprise but you also have San Fran at 34, BYU at 38 and St. Mary’s at 42. LMU is 69, so 4 Top-100 teams. What it should provide at the very least is some tougher games for Gonzaga to prep them for March in conference. I don’t suspect they’ll make it through the league unscathed this year.

The season inches closer and it should be a fascinating year with all the changes and a sense of normalcy.