Low Major Predictions

I have 14 teams pegged as Low-Major which means no matter what happens these are 1 bid leagues.  No at-large bids here.

America East – Vermont (although I’m hoping for Hartford so I can cheer for Pancake Thomas)

Atlantic Sun – North Florida

Big Sky – Weber State

Big South – Winthrop

Big West – Long Beach State (since Hawaii is on probation)

MEAC – South Carolina State

NEC – Fairleigh Dickenson

Ohio Valley – Belmont (and they should romp)

Patriot – Lehigh

SoCon – Chattanooga

Southland – Sam Houston State (although SFA should be a close 2^nd)

Summit – South Dakota State  (go TJ Otzelburger)

Sun Belt – UT-Arlington

SWAC – Alabama State

More Replay for the MAC & Big 14

This nugget dropped from the NCAA this afternoon:

http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2016-10-18/mens-basketball-experimental-replay-rule-approved?cid=ncaammsocial_tw_sf39230502

The MAC and Big 14 will allow officials or coaches challenge block/charge that happen near the restricted area calls in the final 2 minutes of the 2nd half and overtime. 

Coaches that challenge and lose will lose a timeout and if they win, streamers will drop from the ceiling and all in the land will eat the finest meats and cheese.

Coaches and refs cannot challenge non calls and any challenge must occur before the ball is put back into play. Again, you can only challenge calls that occur near the restricted area.

This is arguably the dumbest thing I've ever heard of for basketball rules changes in my lifetime. 

What needs to happen is what Mark Titus (@clubtrillion) of The Ringer is going to harp on all year, and that's the end of the charge. The charge rewards bad defenders and floppers. Please tweet early and often this basketball season #BanCharges #BanTheCharge

Those in favor of this replay system hope it ends flopping but my guess is, confusion will reign and a coach will instantaneously combust in one of these leagues this year (looking at you, Tom Izzo). Simply, #BanCharges #BanTheCharge

Official Conference Breakdowns

Low Major (14)
1 bid leagues who will occupy the 14-16 seed lines.  A March Madness win is something to write home about.
1. America East
2. Atlantic Sun
3. Big Sky
4. Big South
5. Big West
6. MEAC
7. Northeast
8. Ohio Valley (a couple years ago was a Mid-Major)
9. Patriot
10. SoCon (same as OVC but felt the realingment trickle down effect through the Colonial)
11. Southland
12. Summit
13. Sun Belt
14. SWAC

Mid Major (6)
Used to be everybody but the Power 6.  These leagues are 1 bid leagues but you may get a 12-13 seed out of them or a second bid if they schedule and win properly
1. Colonial (very close to falling to low major after flirting with high major)
2. Horizon
3. MAAC
4. MAC (should be a high major but just isn;t)
5. WAC (same as Colonial.  New Mexico State has single handedly kept them here)
6. Ivy

High Major (6)
Probably a two bid league but can sometimes get 3-4 bids.  Can surprise with a sneaky 4-5 seed out of the conference
1. American
2. A-10
3. C-USA (questionable whether they should be this high)
4. Misssouri Valley
5. Mountain West
6. West Coast

Power (6)
At Large Country.  Word is the ACC could get 11 bids themselves this year.  I hope not.  And I realy hope Virginia Tech fails.  Anywho....
1. ACC
2. Big 14
3. Big 12 -2
4. Big East
5. PAC 14
6. SEC and Midwestern Missouri

Conference Previews - A Rebuttal

None

I'd probably put the Big East into a top 6. They've been a top five league the last two years without much help from flagship schools St. John's, Georgetown & Marquette.

I'll mention this later as we move through conferences, but Xavier, Butler & Creighton have quickly improved their recruiting to levels that match the so-called "Power 5". In fact, Xavier landed a top-30 prospect, Paul Scruggs, today over Indiana and Michigan State.

The A-10 and Mountain West can be players but have issues. The A-10 losing Xavier and Temple took away perennial tournament teams. The league is still a very good basketball league but it's hard to see a program consistently contending for Final 4's. Dayton might as long as they keep Archie Miller.

I'll dive into the Mountain West when we get there but they've been hurt by usual powers scuffling and a resurgent Pac-12.

The AAC has a chance to be another Big East but flagships, UConn and Cincinnati are ripe for expansion happy conferences. 

Conference Previews - Breakdown of the Breakdown

I’m going to try to do something a little different this year and lump some of the Low Major’s together to get through the conference  previews quicker.  My analysis is a little different than others as I break the conferences down in to 4 categories:

Low Major – 1 bid.  No matter what happens this league is only getting 1 bid

Mid Major – The old standard of everybody else when there were 6 power conferences.  This now represents the conferences that are 90% sure to get one 1 bid but may be able to sneak a 2^nd if things break correctly.  Think MAAC or Colonial from a couple years ago.

High Major – Named to make the 2^nd tier conferences feel good about themselves…but not good enough to get the power conference money.  Probably a 2 bid league but may get a third.  WCC and A-10, I’m looking at you. But, am I no longer looking at you decrepit Mountain West?

Power – The Power 5…or is it 6 with the Big East making a comeback?

Breakdown coming soon.  Kurly can argue conference alignment in a minute.

America's Real Top 10

Forget Athlon's garbage top 10 and Gary Parrish's or Andy Katz's or whatever Seth Davis says.

Also, Wisconsin is trash and so is Virginia. Welcome to low possession hell. I can already hear the condescending "right way bull shit". It's not even November and I want Jon Rothstein to start covering billiards.

10. Xavier - They'd be higher if I knew the status of Myles Davis who was a naughty boy this summer. There's some depth issues but look for Edmond Sumner to be a potential Big East POY

9. Michigan State - I'm banking on the Izzo factor because they lost a lot. They also lost grad transfer Ben Carter to an injury, hurting front court depth. They added some likely one and dones. I bet they start slow but are a trendy Final 4 pick come March.

8. Louisville - Seen them projected all over the place. I think Deng Adel and Donovan Mitchell are household names by the end of the year. 

7. Arizona - Pac-12 could be the 2nd best league behind the ACC this year. Arizona is a legit Final 4 squad and oozes talent, albeit young. Expect a huge jump from Allonzo Trier and Dusan Ristic.

6. Kansas - Not to be to hyperbolic but I could see a scenario where Frank Mason is this year's Buddy Hield. They'll need some big production from super frosh Josh Jackson. If sophomore Carlton Bragg can match his recruiting hype, he could be their best overall player.

5. North Carolina - They lost their hear and soul in Marcus Paige but bring back a lot of talent. Theo Pinson, Justin Jackson, Kennedy Meeks, Joel Berry II, Nate Britt & Isaiah Hicks are a good six man rotation. Which one becomes the leader?

4. Oregon - The Ducks are loaded with the return of backcourt mates Tyler Dorsey and Dillon Brooks. Chris Boucher is a load inside. Juco transfer Kavell Bigby-Williams will be a factor. They also get Dylan Ennis for a full season. The football program is circling the bowl but the basketball program has ascended.

3. Villanova - Not having freshman Omari Spellman hurts their depth. Though they lost Daniel Ochefo and Ryan Arcidiacono, they still have Josh Hart & Kris Jenkins. Look for Darryl Reynolds and Mikal Bridges to be solid contributors and Jalen Brunson to seamlessly replace Arch.

2. Kentucky - What's new? A lot like usual as they have the 2nd best freshman class in the nation behind the team that will be number one. I like this team though because of returning players Isaiah Briscoe and Derek Willis. It's a good mix of players similar to 2015 and close to 2012.

1. Duke - They're talented enough to go undefeated but won't because the schedule is brutal. The freshman class is the best in school history but having beta Grayson Allen, Matt Jones and Amile Jefferson are why this team will win the national title. Sophomores Luke Kennard and Chase Jeter make them even deadlier. This team will be bananas fun.

Welcome To The Season.....

October is upon us and the Basketball magazines are starting to trickle out.  The first one I saw was Athlon's, which is usually pretty good, so I picked it up.  I like when they go back and look at the Top 10 recruiting class from 5-10 years ago.  Some of those names are forgettable!

As for the predictions, like most seasons, I'm not expecting to see much difference between this magazine and any other magazine.  It'll probably be the same 9 with an stretch thrown in.  As for Athlon, here's what they have:

1. Duke

2. Kentucky

3. Villanova

4. Oregon

5. Kansas

6. North Carolina

7. Virginia

8. Xavier

9. Arizona

10. Wisconsin

Nothing really jumps out at me here.  I'm guessing everybody will have Duke or Kentucky #1.  Oregon may be a stretch at 4 but the one that I think is too low is Wisconsin.  They really came on last year after old man Bo quit.  With a solid core and 4 of 5 starters returning I think they are a viable Final Four team.  Arizona may surprise this year....finally.  Then again they'll probably lose in the Elite Eight.  Virginia will make me want to poke my eyes out I'm sure.

40 days to Tip!