Conference #29 - WAC

Conference Winner:  UMKC Roos

Boy, has this conference fallen.  Just years ago it used to be solid with an at-large bid here or there but then it basically turned into New Mexico State and everybody else.  Now, not even New Mexico State looks like they are worthy.  Nobody in the conference returns more than 3 starters and we're going to go out on a limb and take the Kansas City team in the WESTERN conference.

Conference #30 - MEAC

Conference Winner:  Hampton

The Pirates return 4 starters from last year’s tournament team.  Hampton is probably good enough to not be a play in game but not good enough to break the 15 seed mark.  One and done material.

Conference #31 - SWAC

Conference Winner - Alabama A&M

Not much to say here; as will be the case with the first dozen or so conferences.  This is a play in game conference.  See you on Tuesday March 15th Bulldogs!

One Month Out

We are officially 1 month away from the start of College Basketball.  With that our conference picks will start coming out.  We'll start with our 1 bid leagues and work our way up to the top conference overall.  Let the countdown begin!

SEC Rising

I've been pretty bullish on the SEC the past 4-5 years only to have the league stumble through the regular season. Kentucky and Florida have made Final 4 trips while the rest of the league has scuffled.

The past two off-seasons has seen an infusion of talent on both the floor and in the coaching circles. They won't be contenders this year but Tennessee, Auburn, Mississippi State and Alabama should be better sooner than later with the additions of Rick Barnes, Bruce Pearl, Ben Howland & Avery Johnson.

More importantly, the talent level has increased dramatically as well. LSU has a freshman class that rivals a typical Kentucky class with number one ranked prospect Ben Simmons and five star Antonio Blakeney. Texas A&M had a surprisingly fertile recruiting period adding 4 top-100 players.

Mississippi State immediately benefited from the hire of Howland and added top prospect Malik Newman. Newman is the headliner but Howland added other top players to form a top-20 class.

Auburn didn't add a star at the level of Malik Newman but did net the league another top-20 class. Auburn has a jump start on 2016, poaching five star Mustapha Heron from NYC.

Kentucky, along with Florida have been the class of the league. The recent talent infusion will make the league deeper and tougher.  Don't fret, Kentucky still landed a top-5 class and will be a force. 

Also returning to the scene will be Vanderbilt who should be one of the most improved teams in the nation. Among their better players will be Brookfield native Riley LaChance and Luke Kornet, son of former Buck draft pick, Frank Kornet. Vandy is also building a solid 2016 recruiting class.

The league is probably a 5 bid league this year, 6 max. In a year or two, it shouldn't surprise anyone to see the league match the B1G and ACC as a possible 8+ bid league.

Eric's Pre-Season Top 10

This would also be my de facto Final 4, elite 8, etc. Here we go, 2015-16...

10. Kentucky: Kentucky sent 87 players to the Association but should still be very good. A dominant interior team with indifferent back court play at times, the opposite should be true this season. I believe Tyler Ulis will shine and has a running mate in Canadian freshmen, Jamal Murray who has looked fantastic this summer. The 'Cats also return Alex Poythress and Marcus Lee, two talented post players. As is always the case, the Wildcats bring in more impressive young talent. Along with Murray, they added big man Skal Labissiere and guard Isaiah Briscoe. The SEC is rapidly improving and will be a battle for Kentucky this year.

9. Michigan State: The B1G will be a bloodbath this season, so any team could end up here but I'm betting on Tom Izzo and Denzel Valentine. They caught fire late last year to make their run getting some key play from returning players. Look for Bryn Forbes to become a bigger scoring threat and for West Virginia transfer Eron Harris to play a big role. They'll be good this year and Izzo is putting the finishing touches on arguably his best recruiting class for the following year. Any worry about him slowing down deep into his tenure have been erased.

8. Arizona: Sean Miller enters the season as "Best Coach To Never Make a Final Four". They lost an awful lot from last year's squad who got shot off the court by the Badgers. Despite that, I look for Gabe York and Kaleb Tarczewski to take big steps forward. Transfer Ryan Anderson will be a nice addition as will grad transfer Mark Tollefsen. The best of the freshmen will be G Allonzo Trier.

7. Virginia: The Cavs are not going anywhere. Off two great regular seasons, Coach Tony Bennett is crushing it in recruiting. It won't mean much this year but he didn't need much this year despite losing Justin Anderson.They still return Malcolm Brogdon, London Perrantes and Anthony Gill. Keep an eye on Marial Shayok, a silky smooth sophomore. Virginia will have to prove themselves come March but they'll be in the mix.

6. Maryland: Coach Mark Turgeon is doing great work at Maryland. Entering their second season in the B1G, they are the favorites to win a stacked conference. The return of Melo Trimble was great news. They also add solid transfers Rasheed Sulamion and Robert Carter. Of course, they also add touted freshmen big man Diamond Stone. The sky is the limit for this talented squad.

5. Oklahoma: I'm probably higher on Oklahoma than most people but this is a veteran-laden team with one of the nation's best back courts with Buddy Hield and Isaiah Cousins. Hield is my pre-season pick for Big XII POY. Ryan Spangler saw his numbers dip a bit last year but look for those to improve this year. I also like sophomore big man Khadeem Lattin to break out. JUCO transfer Akolda Manyang will be looked upon to provide solid minutes in the paint. If they get good play from him, the Sooners will be very dangerous come March.

4. Villanova: Another team I'm higher on than most has a lot to prove come March after fizzling out in the round of 32 the last two years. As is often the case under Coach Jay Wright, this team will be perimeter oriented, lead by senior Ryan Arcidiacono and super frosh, Jalen Brunson, son of Rick. The Wildcats aren't bereft of talent inside by any stretch. Big man Daniel Ochefu has steadily improved each year and the senior could be a surprise breakout player. Guard Josh Hart could take a big step this year, too. They should be the class of the Big East.

3. North Carolina: This should be Roy Williams best team since his last national championship. They only lose J.P. Tokoto off last year's Sweet 16 team. Marcus Paige returns to run the show and the Tar Heels should see big leaps from sophomores Justin Jackson, Theo Pinson & Joel Berry. They also return Brice Johnson & Kennedy Meeks on the inside. It doesn't appear any sanctions are awaiting them this year. They'll be tested come March as the ACC will be insane good this year.

2. Duke: Duke? Again?! Yeah, they simply re-loaded, adding Derryck Thonrton to run the point and Luke Kennard and Brandon Ingraham to join him in the back court. That doesn't include the return of Grayson Allen who was the spark plug in the title game. The front court is more experienced with the returns of Marshall Plumlee and Amile Jefferson. Neither is a superstar but if one or the other takes a leap like they're capable of, this team will be fun. They also add Rice transfer Sean Obi who could be a very solid rotation player. Freshmen Chase Jeter will get plenty of minutes and is a guy who should only get better as the season rolls along.

1. Kansas: This is a bit of a stretch. That said, I like this team a lot. They have a talented and veteran back court returning. Frank Mason and Wayne Selden can be maddening at times but I'm betting on them to shine this year. Brannen Greene became a dangerous shooter as the season went along last year and can be a weapon for them. Up front, Perry Ellis is somehow still around. He's joined by Jamari Traylor and Arkansas transfer, Hunter Mickelson. Carlton Bragg, a freshmen was a top recruit who may be the most talented of all those mentioned. The top player may end up being Cheick Diallo, a super talented freshmen. It's a nice mix of veterans and young studs in Lawrence this season. It's a very good opportunity for Bill Self to win a second national title

Death. Taxes. Vampires don't die.

For the last year or so, local media has been building up Badgers assistant Greg Gard. In the back of my head, I began to wonder if the end was near for Bo Ryan. It made some sense. Last year was Bo's best team at Madison and Father Time always beat coaches.

Today's announcement wasn't a big surprise to me. Rumors of a pending retirement began circulating last fall. Reasonable people could and should have concluded he'd very much want his successor to be one of his guys and no one is more of a Bo guy than Greg Gard.

Now, there's no guarantee Gard actually gets the position. It probably isn't unfair to assume Gard is the guy. Ryan's statement puts the onus on Barry Alvarez to go against his wishes. One would also assume this has been discussed and Bo would have gotten the okay to basically name Gard his successor.

Is it the right choice?

That's the million dollar question. Gard is widely regarded as one of the best assistants in the game. I casually threw his name into the Marquette mix last year knowing the chances were zero he'd ever interview for the job but his reputation demanded he at least be considered.

Prior to Bo's arrival, Wisconsin had been to only 7 NCAA Tournaments. Dick Bennett had laid the groundwork but Bo took it to the next level making the dance all 14 years he has been in Madison, including the Final 4 the last two.

Bo is Wisconsin basketball. Big shoes for Greg Gard to possibly fill. History shows us, it'll be difficult for him to follow.

Successful Transitions

The best transition I can recall is Michigan State going from Jud Heathcote to Tom Izzo. Izzo was named coach in waiting and within a few years, he was a National Champion. That's the best case scenario. Like Gard, Izzo was a highly regarded assistant.

Bill Guthridge took over as a bit of a caretaker at UNC. He found success but I don't think it's an apt comparison based on age. 

Less Successful Transitions

I instantly thought of Marquette going through something similar in 1977. While Bo didn't reach the apex Al McGuire did, Al was Marquette basketball. Hank Raymonds had success but could never match what Al did. It's not entirely the same again as Gard has many years ahead of him but the slippage was small, then steep.

Arkansas basketball hasn't had much success since Nolan Richardson left but that transition was much different. The Razorbacks were sliding by time he got run out and Richardson's exit was messy.

That said, Arkansas has gone back to the Richardson coaching family trying to recapture his magic.

Go Big

The other obvious name is Tony Bennett. Louisville successfully transitioned from Denny Crum to Rick Pitino. Pitino had no ties to Louisville other than liking the state. Arizona hired Sean Miller to replace Lute Olsen. While not a big name necessarily, there was little doubt Miller was a rising star.

So What

My gut tells me Gard is a done deal and will do just fine. That said, 15 years of success doesn't guarantee success in the future.