Westwood Ho

In Brian's bracket on Monday, he had the UCLA Bruins as a 7-seed. Didn't think much of it until I ran through some KenPom numbers and saw UCLA was in the top 25 on both sides of the ball and 18th overall. At 18-5 (7-3), 7 seems low until we look closer but as a 7 (I think they could go higher), the numbers indicate a team that could be dangerous.

UCLA profiles in the bracket so low because they haven't beaten anyone of note. KenPom rating has them with the 220th toughest schedule overall. Their best non-conference win is probably Alabama. They lost at Mizzou and got throttled by Duke on a neutral court. They don't have a terrible conference loss. Losing on the road at Utah and Oregon State this year is no great deal. But could they bea threat as a 6-8 seed team? Yeah, I think so, though I'll always doubt a Steve Alford-coached team.

As I noted earlier, they're a top 25 team in adjusted defense and offense. On offense, they are 23rd. One of the criticisms Ben Howland faced was, his teams were plodding and defensive minded, playin limited possessions. When AD Dan Guerrero was looking for his replacement, fans and Deadhead alumni wanted someone to play up-tempo. That's why there were so many chuckles when they hired Alford. Historically, Alford coached teams played low-tempo games. To his credit or to appease the base, his Bruins team has been an up-tempo team. They're 17th in pace, avergaing 71.6 possessions per game.

The Bruins can shoot well. They have an effective fg% of 54.3%, 23rd best. From deep, they are 18th best in the nation, shooting 39.5%. In the paint, they are 38th, shooting 52.4%. They protect the ball. The turnover % is only 15.1%, 19th best. They're average on the glass in getting misses and don't get to the line at a great clip but do shoot 75% at the line. That would rank them 23rd in the nation.

They're definitely not as polished on defense as the best Ben Howland teams were but they're not slouches either. Overall, they rank 24th in adjusted d. Teams shoot an effective fg% of 49% which is about the national average. They're decent on the glass. Opponents only get 29% of their misses and they don't overally foul. Opponent FTA/FGA is 35.7%, 78th best. They do a nice job forcing turnovers. Their turnover % is 21.4%, 34th and have a steal % of 14.4%, 2nd best oevrall.

The Bruins two best players are sophomores. 6'9" Kyle Anderson plays a variety of roles, including handling the ball on offense. He scores 15.1ppg and grabs 8.7 boards per game. On top of that, he averages 6.7 dimes a game. he doesn;t shoot many 3's but is 20-40 on the season. His running mate, Jordan Adams scores 16.8ppg to lead UCLA. He also adds 5.7 boards per game. Adams has the 6th best individual steal % in college, 5.3%. Alford's son, Bryce has provided quality minutes as well. Alford doesn't make a ton of 3's either but does shoot 40% from deep.

UCLA strikes me as a team that will vex me when filling out a bracket. The numbers tell you they can probably beat just about anyone but they haven't. They got to the Bay Area next week. That will give me a better idea how good they might be. Their game at Stanford is the only game their an underdog according to KenPom and the game at Cal, they're not big favorites, maybe a bucket. They don't have Arizona again after losing to them at home at the beginning of conference play (They could meet in the Pac-12 tournament, of course). I think they could surprise some people and make a run during the tournament. I just have a hard time seeing a Steve Alford team do it, though. Fair or not, how they play in March will define him and his teams.

Screw Maryland

I've started to see some people bemoan the end of the Duke-Maryland rivalry as the Terps travel to Cameron on Saturday.

You know what? Screw Maryland. I hope Duke absolutely runs them off the court and Jabari Parker is catching alley-oops up 50 with less than a minute left.

Maryland, despite winning a national title in basketball in 2002 and somehow making a BCS game still couldn't turn a profit so they turned to the B1G and their golden goose, the B1G TV Network, home of the largest collection of idiots talking sports on TV, an AV club-level unit.

So, a school that couldn't compete in football in the freaking ACC and whined incessantly about how unfair the league is in favor of Tobacco Road is going to add road trips to Minnesota and Nebraska and try and compete in football against schools that actually try and win football games.

And you're trading regional rivalries in basketball for what? Rutgers? Penn State? All because your leaders were too incompetent to run a financially solvent athletic deepartment.

So, enjoy your dollars and recruiting in the midwest where people are leaving in droves. The ACC will do just fine with Louisville, Syracuse, Notre Dame & Pitt. Have fun adding Rutgers to your schedule instead and traveling to Iowa in February.

Thursday Bubble Action

Quick update on last night’s action. LSU lost and falls out of the bracket. Providence takes their place. It’s a case of the best of the teams out and not that the Friars deserve it. This year’s bubble is not good tonight.

Here’s tonight’s slate:

SMU at Rutgers – SMU is in comfortably at an 10/11 seed but this would be a bad loss.
Arkansas at Missouri – neither team is in and I’m thinking Arkansas is out of consideration with a loss.
St. John’s at Seton Hall – The Red Storm’s late season surge looks to continue. I have them as a First Four Out team today.
Colorado at UCLA – Colorado’s overall resume is a 9-10 seed but with Dinwiddle out they look more like a 11/12. How will the committee judge them?
Minnesota at Wisconsin – the Gophers won’t fall out with a loss but a big road win would really do them wonders.
BYU at Pacific – just keep winning Cougers, just keep winning.

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Toughness Defined

Aaron Craft playing the game with grit, heart and leadership.

I am no great fan of Aaron Craft, mostly because of the team he plays for and the narrative that is thrust upon him. It's not his fault basketball announcers attribute qualities to him that seem to fit one particular race, especially those that play guard. He's simply the current poster boy for narrow mindedness and cliched announcing.

Kind of the Derek Jeter of college basketball. Synergy.

Bubble and Stuff

Not much movement in the bracket last night. Tennessee loses to Florida but still hangs around at an 11 seed. Oklahoma State continues their free fall down to a 9 seed. Marquette and Wyoming get big wins but still are not in the Also Considered bucket. Marquette’s RPI is too high at 70 and they are 0-5 against the RPI top 25. Wyoming gets a top 25 win but their RPI is around 85. Mississippi and Clemson lose golden chances move up to a Next Four Out team but fail in the end. North Carolina State is making a late move to be relevant. A top 50 RPI is good but 0-4 against the top 25 isn’t. They will need a big win down the road to close the gap.

Tonight’s slate has two big ACC showdowns with Syracuse traveling to Pitt for a first to 40 wins game while Tobacco Road gets busy with Duke at North Carolina.

As for the bracket, two A-10 teams right on the bubble are in action. Richmond travels to Duquesne while Dayton hosts Rhode Island. Both teams are in must win situations for the time being. In the Midwest, Baylor tries to right the ship at TCU. At 2-8 in conference they are 3-4 wins from getting in. LSU also plays Texas A&M. As the last team in they need a win. Out west Stanford and California are in action. Neither are in bubble trouble right now but a loss moves them down to a projected 11 seed.

Bubble Update

In last night’s action Georgetown takes a big step forward by holding serve at home against fellow bubbler, Providence. The Friars fall out of the bracket after losing 4 of their last 5 with their only win coming against DePaul. Florida State loses at home to Miami to also fall out of the bracket. They have lost 6 of their last 8. West Virginia gets a huge win over Iowa State and moves into the Next Four Out group. They’ve won 4 of 5 and have 3 top 50 wins. They will have an opportunity to play themselves into the bracket with 4 of their last 7 against the RPI top 25.

Replacing Providence and FSU are LSU and Dayton. Neither should feel very safe but Dayton does have 3 top 50 wins. In tonight’s games there are mostly teams out that need to continue to win to stay within shouting distance of the bubble. Mississippi travels to Alabama, Wake and North Carolina State mix it up, Clemson visits Notre Dame, and the possibly relevant Warriors of Marquette look to get into the conversation at Seton Hall. On the plus side of the bracket Tennessee hosts Florida in a huge game for the Vols. Tonight can go a long way to securing a bid for them.