In Brian's latest mock, he has Louisville as a 5 seed. And it's right where they belong. To this point, their best win is either a road win at UConn or a home win against SMU. Good teams, hardly considered top tier. Out of conference, the Cards best win is Southern Miss. They've lost at home against Cincinnati and an erratic Memphis team. They lost early in the year to North Carolina who we can't be certain what they are and lost to a similar team in Kentucky. In fairness, Kentucky has been lights out at Rupp.
All this being said, if you're a 1-seed in the Sweet 16 or even a 4-seed in the Round of 32 (sigh), do you want to see Louisville? They're not as good as last years team but the numbers tell us they're still a pretty good team. As of today, they're 5th overall in KenPom, 13th on offense and 14th on defense.
Offensively, Louisville has been averaging 82 ppg in the AAC, best in the league. They have an effective fg% of 54.3%, 22nd best in the nation. The Cardinals shoot 37.3% from deep (60th)and 53.4% from 2 (23rd). They protect the ball. Their turnover % is 15.2%, 23rd best. Opponents steal % is 6.2%. That makes them 4th best at preventing steals. They get to misses as well. The Cards offensive rebounding % is 37.1%, 28th best. The area of concern is how they shoot from the line. They are 284th in the land with a 66.4% ft%. They get to the line at just above the national clip.
On the other side of the ball, they hold opponents to a 44.4% effective fg%, 23rd best. Teams shoot only 30% from deep (28th) and 44% from inside the arc (41st). The Cardinals have a defensive turnover % of 24.9%, 3rd best. They have a steal % of 13.8%, 4th best. Like a good Pitino team, they force turnovers to help generate offense. They foul a bit above the national average and will give up rebounds to the opposing offenses. Their defensive rebounding % is 33.5%, 258th.
Senior Russ Smith is the maddening player who makes the Cardinals go. Smith shoots 40% from deep and scores 18.3ppg. Smith can play out of control at times, trying to carry a larger burden than he may need to. Sophmore F Montrzel Harrell give sthem 12.6 & 8.2 boards. He's one of their bad FT shooters, only making 46% from the line. Harrell might be the best overall player on the team. The hero from last year's run in March, Luke Hancock has been a good player for Louisville but he's been far less effective, shooting only 30% from deep and 41% overall. Can he find his groove as the season winds down and heads into tourney play? If so, the Cardinals become more dangerous.
Losing Chase Behanan hurt them but he was given more than enough chances to get his act together. Coupled with the graduations of Siva and Dieng, the Cards lost 3 key pieces. Harrell and Hancock need to be more than just complimentary pieces. Harrell certainly can be that.
I'm not sure what to make of Louisville as we move forward. The team numbers tell you they can run with just about anyone. Would you be shocked if they were to beat a Syracuse, Wichita, Arizona or Florida in March? I also can't say I'd be shocked if they were to lose early. Let's see how they handle some road trips here in the AAC down the stretch.
Monday, February 10, 2014
Monday Night Bubble Action
There’s not many games tonight but three of them include our 63rd, 67th, and 68th team in our bracket. Florida State, 67th, hosts Miami and they need to win to stay in the bracket. The 63rd and 68th team are Georgetown and Providence. Plain and simple, the winner stays in and the loser is out. This is the kind of game that is big when the committee gets together in a couple weeks. On the outside looking in are Maryland and West Virginia. The Terps travel to Virginia while the Mountaineers host Iowa State. Both of these games would be huge come March.
Monday Bracketology
1 seed vs 16 seed
Syracuse (ACC) vs AlabSt(SWAC)/Weber St(Bsky)
Arizona (P12) vs Robert Morris (NEC)/UNC-Ash(Bsouth)
Wichita State (MVC) vs Utah Valley (WAC)
Florida (SEC) vs Davidson (SoCon)
2 seed vs 15 seed
San Diego St (MWC) vs Vermont (Aeast)
Kansas (B12) vs NC-Central (MEAC)
Villanova (Beast) vs Boston (Pat)
Iowa State vs Stephen F. Austin (Sland)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Michigan (B1G) vs Iona (MAAC)
Michigan State vs Georgia St (Sbelt)
Cincinnati (AAC) vs UCSB (Bwest)
Duke vs Delaware (Colonial)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Kentucky vs UW-Green Bay (Horizon)
Wisconsin vs Mercer(Asun)
Virginia vs Belmont (OVC)
Iowa vs North Dakota St (Summit)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Ohio State vs Toledo (MAC)
St. Louis (A10) vs Harvard (Ivy)
Creighton vs Florida State/Providence
Louisville vs BYU/Missouri
6 seed vs 11 seed
Oklahoma vs Georgetown
Texas vs Tennessee
Connecticut vs SMU
Memphis vs Minnesota
7 seed vs 10 seed
Oklahoma State vs California
Massachusettes vs Arizona State
UCLA vs Xavier
Pittsburgh vs Southern Miss (Cusa)
8 seed vs 9 seed
New Mexico vs VCU
North Carolina vs Stanford
Gonzaga (WCC) vs Colorado
Kansas State vs George Washington
First Four Out
LSU
Dayton
St. John's
St. Joseph's
Next Four Out
North Carolina St
Oregon
Indiana
Richmond
Also Considered
Boise State
Clemson
UTEP
Mississippi
St. Mary's
Arkansas
Louisiana Tech
West Virginia
New Mexico State
Maryland
Baylor
Sunday, February 9, 2014
Saturday Look Back
Here's what I'll say about the incident in Lubbock. If you're a middle-aged man heckling or riding college students and cross the line, I have no sympathy for you. Can Marcus Smart do what he did? No, but the fan is the real "loser" and "thug".
As for the Cowboys, stick a fork in them. They're lost and it doesn't appear their head coach is capable of fixing things.
Yesterday was a great day for some individual players.
Iowa State's Melvin Ejim set a Big XII record scoring 48 points against TCU. He shot 20-24 and added 18 boards.
Also in the Big XII, Kansas State Marcis Foster scored 34 as the Wildcats routed the previously red-hot Texas Longhorns. Foster did so on a cool 13-16 performance. Foster is an unheralded frosh who looks to be a real find for Bruce Weber.
Finally, Duke's super frosh Jabari Parker continues to wow scoring 29 points and adding 16 boards as Duke throttled Boston College. Parker was 12-17 from the field. It could have been even better as he was only 5-10 from the line.
Friday, February 7, 2014
Friday Bracketology
1 seed vs 16 seed
Syracuse (ACC) vs Southern(SWAC)/Weber St(Bsky)
Arizona (P12) vs Robert Morris (NEC)/UNC-Ash(Bsouth)
Wichita State (MVC) vs Utah Valley (WAC)
Florida (SEC) vs Davidson (SoCon)
2 seed vs 15 seed
San Diego St (MWC) vs Vermont (Aeast)
Kansas (B12) vs NC-Central (MEAC)
Villanova vs American (Pat)
Cincinnati (AAC) vs UCSB (Bwest)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Michigan (B1G) vs Canisius (MAAC)
Michigan State vs Georgia St (Sbelt)
Iowa State vs Stephen F. Austin (Sland)
Creighton (Beast) vs Delaware (Colonial)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Kentucky vs North Dakota St (Summit)
Duke vs Mercer(Asun)
Wisconsin vs Belmont (OVC)
Virginia vs UW-Green Bay (Horizon)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Iowa vs Toledo (MAC)
Texas vs Tennessee/Georgetown
Ohio State vs BYU/Missouri
St. Louis (A10) vs SMU
6 seed vs 11 seed
Louisville vs Minnesota
Oklahoma vs Arizona State
Oklahoma State vs Providence
Connecticut vs Harvard (Ivy)
7 seed vs 10 seed
Memphis vs California
Gonzaga (WCC) vs Florida State
UCLA vs Xavier
Pittsburgh vs Southern Miss (Cusa)
8 seed vs 9 seed
Massachusettes vs Stanford
New Mexico vs Colorado
North Carolina vs Kansas State
VCU vs George Washington
First Four Out
LSU
Clemson
Indiana
Oregon
Next Four Out
Baylor
North Carolina St
Dayton
Richmond
Also Considered
Boise State
Wake Forest
St. John's
UTEP
Mississippi
St. Mary's
Arkansas
Louisiana Tech
Ohio
West Virginia
New Mexico State
Maryland
St. Joseph's
Thursday, February 6, 2014
It's a Big Bubble Evening
Lots of bubble action as a couple of our last 6 in and first 6 out are in action. On the positive side of the bubble, LSU travels to Georgia needing a win to stay in the bracket. SMU hosts Temple and probably can’t afford a bad loss either. Arizona State has Oregon State at home as well and might be able to hold a bid with a loss. They shouldn’t chance it though. Our last team in, BYU gets a home game against Santa Clara. They have no room for error as the 68th team today.
On the negative side, our first team out, Oregon, gets a big chance to leap into the bracket with a road game against Arizona. A win here propels them 4-5 spots and probably knocks BYU out of my current bracket, regardless of what BYU does. The Ducks need tonight, bad. St. Mary’s and Louisiana Tech are also in action and need not only tonight but probably the rest of the regular season as well.
Florida Gators
Brian bought in early on Florida. Myself? Not so much but I am now. My concerns were injuries and the Gators continuing parade of suspensions and eligibility issues. Those appear settled and with the recent clearing of freshman big man, Chris Walker, the Gators and coach Billy Donovan appear headed for another shot at a long March run.
The Gators have won 14 straight games, with a few close shaves in conference play. Their only two losses came in non-conference play and both on the road. They lost at the buzzer to UConn and at Wisconsin where they were without Dorian Finney-Smith and Scottie Wilbekin. While Badger propagandists, Tom Oates and Jeff Potrykus point to the Badgers missing Gasser in last year's game at Gainseville, let's be serious for a moment. Play that game today at full strength and the Gators are favored, even in Madison. The Gators have a home win over Kansas and neutral court win over Memphis. They've yet to play Kentucky, traveling to Lexington on Saturday the 15th. According to KenPom, that is their only game where they won't be favored to win remaining on the docket. A 1-seed could be in play for Florida.
In KenPom, the Gators are currently 5th overall. They're ranked higher on defense, 7th overall in adjusted d. They hold opponents to a 43.5% effective fg%, 9th in the nation. They force turnovers, with a defensive turnover 5 of 21.5%, 31st. They're about average on the defensive glass. Opponents have an offensive rebounding % of 30%, 110th nationally. They do a good job defensively without fouling. In the paint, teams only shoot 41%. That's 5th best in the nation.
They're a little worse on offense but they've been gradually improving since the beginning of the season as they get players back. Early KP numbers had them in the 100's but they've moved up to 26th. They play a slow tempo. They average 63 possessions per game, 328th in the nation. They average 71ppg. They're effective fg% is 51.5%, 90th. The Gators turnover % is 17.8%, about average. They are better on the offensive glass, with an offensive rebounding % of 37.3%. They also get to the line but only make 66% of their free throws. That's not good as they ranks 290th in the nation.
I noted they added Chris "Sky" Walker, a big man earlier this week as he got his first action against Missouri. He looked pretty raw but you can see the athleticism and explosiveness. I'm not certain how much he'l help but if he gives them 10-15 good minutes, the Gators just got a whole lot better and deeper. Their core are three seniors, G Scottie Wilbekin, F Casey Prather and C Patric Young. Wilbekin runs the show and shoots 38% from deep. Prather is the leading scorer, getting 15.2ppg with 5 boards per game. He has an effective fg% of 62.6% which is slightly worse than his FT shooting. Young shoots 56% at the line. Both see the ball a lot, so this could be an issue in close games. Young gives them 10.7 & 6.6. Sophomore Dorian Finney-Smith also struggles at the line but is a good offensive rebounder. Fellow sophomore Michael Frazier is arguably the SEC'sbest deep threat, hitting 43% from distance, scoring 12.6ppg. There's a lot of talent here, a lot of good college basketball players.
The Gators have made 3 straight Elite 8's, being stopped short of the Final 4 by Butler, Louisville & Michigan. Michigan shot them off the court last year in what was one of the tournaments bigger surprises. The Gators certainly have another Elite 8 run in them and possibly deeper. They've played some close games recently and mixed in some impressive routes as well. There's an awful lot to like about this team and they seem capable of handling pressure.
The Gators have won 14 straight games, with a few close shaves in conference play. Their only two losses came in non-conference play and both on the road. They lost at the buzzer to UConn and at Wisconsin where they were without Dorian Finney-Smith and Scottie Wilbekin. While Badger propagandists, Tom Oates and Jeff Potrykus point to the Badgers missing Gasser in last year's game at Gainseville, let's be serious for a moment. Play that game today at full strength and the Gators are favored, even in Madison. The Gators have a home win over Kansas and neutral court win over Memphis. They've yet to play Kentucky, traveling to Lexington on Saturday the 15th. According to KenPom, that is their only game where they won't be favored to win remaining on the docket. A 1-seed could be in play for Florida.
In KenPom, the Gators are currently 5th overall. They're ranked higher on defense, 7th overall in adjusted d. They hold opponents to a 43.5% effective fg%, 9th in the nation. They force turnovers, with a defensive turnover 5 of 21.5%, 31st. They're about average on the defensive glass. Opponents have an offensive rebounding % of 30%, 110th nationally. They do a good job defensively without fouling. In the paint, teams only shoot 41%. That's 5th best in the nation.
They're a little worse on offense but they've been gradually improving since the beginning of the season as they get players back. Early KP numbers had them in the 100's but they've moved up to 26th. They play a slow tempo. They average 63 possessions per game, 328th in the nation. They average 71ppg. They're effective fg% is 51.5%, 90th. The Gators turnover % is 17.8%, about average. They are better on the offensive glass, with an offensive rebounding % of 37.3%. They also get to the line but only make 66% of their free throws. That's not good as they ranks 290th in the nation.
I noted they added Chris "Sky" Walker, a big man earlier this week as he got his first action against Missouri. He looked pretty raw but you can see the athleticism and explosiveness. I'm not certain how much he'l help but if he gives them 10-15 good minutes, the Gators just got a whole lot better and deeper. Their core are three seniors, G Scottie Wilbekin, F Casey Prather and C Patric Young. Wilbekin runs the show and shoots 38% from deep. Prather is the leading scorer, getting 15.2ppg with 5 boards per game. He has an effective fg% of 62.6% which is slightly worse than his FT shooting. Young shoots 56% at the line. Both see the ball a lot, so this could be an issue in close games. Young gives them 10.7 & 6.6. Sophomore Dorian Finney-Smith also struggles at the line but is a good offensive rebounder. Fellow sophomore Michael Frazier is arguably the SEC'sbest deep threat, hitting 43% from distance, scoring 12.6ppg. There's a lot of talent here, a lot of good college basketball players.
The Gators have made 3 straight Elite 8's, being stopped short of the Final 4 by Butler, Louisville & Michigan. Michigan shot them off the court last year in what was one of the tournaments bigger surprises. The Gators certainly have another Elite 8 run in them and possibly deeper. They've played some close games recently and mixed in some impressive routes as well. There's an awful lot to like about this team and they seem capable of handling pressure.
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