Friday, January 24, 2014
Friday Afternoon Bracketology
1 seed vs 16 seed
Arizona (P12) vs Southern(SWAC)/SavanahSt (MEAC)
Syracuse (ACC) vs Chattanoga(SoCon)/UNC-Ash(Bsouth)
Michigan State (B1G) vs N.Colorado (Bsky)
Wichita State (MVC) vs Stony Brook (Aest)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Kansas (B12) vs Robert Morris (NEC)
Florida (SEC) vs Utah Valley (WAC)
Villanova vs American (Pat)
San Diego St (MWC) vs Canisius (MAAC)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Kentucky vs UC-Irvine (Bwest)
Wisconsin vs Georgia St (Sbelt)
Iowa State vs Stephen F. Austin (Sland)
Duke vs Delaware (Colonial)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Oklahoma State vs Belmont (OVC)
Iowa vs Mercer(Asun)
Massachusettes vs North Dakota St(Summit)
Creighton (Beast) vs UW-Green Bay (Horizon)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Michigan vs Toledo (MAC)
Cincinnati (AAC) vs Tennessee/North Carolina
Pittsburgh vs Providence/Stanford
Louisville vs Missouri
6 seed vs 11 seed
Gonzaga (WCC) vs St. Mary's
St. Louis (A10) vs Harvard (Ivy)
Memphis vs Oregon
Ohio State vs SMU
7 seed vs 10 seed
Virginia vs Southern Miss (Cusa)
Connecticut vs Florida State
Xavier vs Baylor
UCLA vs VCU
8 seed vs 9 seed
Oklahoma vs Texas
California vs Colorado
New Mexico vs Minnesota
George Washington vs Kansas State
First Four Out
Georgetown
BYU
Louisiana Tech
Arizona State
Next Four Out
Wake Forest
Arkansas
Boise State
Mississippi
Also Considered
Dayton
North Dakota State
LaSalle
North Carolina St
Illinois
Maryland
Indiana
Utah State
UNLV
Purdue
Indiana State
LSU
Notre Dame
Clemson
Thursday, January 23, 2014
Cause for Concern: Wisconsin Edition
A mere 10 days ago, Wisconsin stood at 16-0, off to the best start in school history and national pundits proclaiming this Bo's best team since he arrived in Madison. Fast forward to today and we see a team with flaws being exposed and questions arise whether or not this is Bo's worst defensive team since he arrived. Watching Jeff Potrykus melt down on twitter has been particularly fun. Let's take a look at what the real story is.
After last night's loss in Minnesota, Wisconsin's defefnse fell to 55th in KenPom's adjusted D. 10 days ago, it was top 10. That shows a large amount of volatitility but it's probably about where it belongs. We'll look at what I mean in a bit but let's see what the numbers tell us.
The effective fg% last year was 7th in the land. This year, it's 78th. 43% vs. 46.7%, still well above the national average. The Badgers still don't foul teams. They lead the nation in FTA/FGA, better than last. They also still don't force turnovers. Last year's turnover % was 18%, 27th. This year is worse, 16%, 315th. Bo Ryan can live with that as long as they aren't giving free baskets by fouling which they certainly don't. They're also 56nd in defensive rebounding %. Last year, they were 28th. Not a huge swing. Teams are shooting the 3 better, making 32.6% versus 28.9% last. Teams are shooting 46% from 2 this year, versus 42.8% last. Perhaps most telling, last years block % was 10.8%. This year? 8.2%. 227th in the nation. That isn't a surprise giving the loss of Jared Bergrenn and perhaps the crux of the problem.
In their 3 losses, Indiana scored 52 in the paint, Michigan 26 & Minnesota 48. While Frank Kaminsky has been a revelation on offense, he simply isn't a solid post defender. In those losses, Indiana shot 51.6%, Michigan 54.7% and Minnesota, 58.9% despite losing their best player a minute into the game. The Inidana game is the concerning one. Indiana is 156th in KenPom on adjusted O. They still pounded the Badgers inside. One game later, Northwestern shut the Hooisers down. Is the defense beginning to get exposed? I think so.
If we look at their non-conference schedule, we see solid wins but we also see a lot of opponents that aren't exactly offensive juggernaughts. The following shows the points allowed and KP offensive ratings:
- St. John's; 75, 128th
- Florida; 53, 43rd
- UWGB; 66, 30th
- SLU; 57, 185th
- West Virginia; 63, 175th
- Virginia; 38, 66th
- Marquette; 64, 126th
- Northwestern; 49, 323rd
- Illinois; 70, 175th
They played Florida in a what we would conceive as a prototypical Badgers game, 60 possessions and the Gators were missing Dorian Finney-Smith & Scottie Wilbekin. By season's end, Florida's adjusted o number will be higher but when they played in Madison, they certainly weren't the team they will finish as. Virginia actually averages less possessions a game than Wisconsin and are prone to scoring droughts but Wisconsin still deserves a ton of credit for completely dominating the Cavaliers on the road. That game was also am oulier for the Wisconsin offense. Hard to say what we ultimately, if anything, take out of this game. Still, those wins aren't against top notch offenses. And their best defensive stretch came against UWM, Eastern Kentucky, Prarie View A&M & Northwestern
Wisconsin has a defensive problem. They lack an interior defender that intimidates teams though they still do some things well. It isn't likely the Badgers currently have someone on the roster that can become an interior presence. Kaminsky isn't that guy. Say what you will about Bergrenn or even Brusiewitz, but they provide interior heft. The Badgers can't or won't zone like some suggested. Bo isn't going to change and the guards just aren't long enough to do that effectively.
March for Wisconsin will be about getting teams in their bracket that are not efficient on offense. The teams they recently all played, save Indiana are very good offensive teams. The Badgers are as good on offense as they usually are based on efficiency and are more certainly more explosive. But, interior defense seems their likely downfall.
After last night's loss in Minnesota, Wisconsin's defefnse fell to 55th in KenPom's adjusted D. 10 days ago, it was top 10. That shows a large amount of volatitility but it's probably about where it belongs. We'll look at what I mean in a bit but let's see what the numbers tell us.
The effective fg% last year was 7th in the land. This year, it's 78th. 43% vs. 46.7%, still well above the national average. The Badgers still don't foul teams. They lead the nation in FTA/FGA, better than last. They also still don't force turnovers. Last year's turnover % was 18%, 27th. This year is worse, 16%, 315th. Bo Ryan can live with that as long as they aren't giving free baskets by fouling which they certainly don't. They're also 56nd in defensive rebounding %. Last year, they were 28th. Not a huge swing. Teams are shooting the 3 better, making 32.6% versus 28.9% last. Teams are shooting 46% from 2 this year, versus 42.8% last. Perhaps most telling, last years block % was 10.8%. This year? 8.2%. 227th in the nation. That isn't a surprise giving the loss of Jared Bergrenn and perhaps the crux of the problem.
In their 3 losses, Indiana scored 52 in the paint, Michigan 26 & Minnesota 48. While Frank Kaminsky has been a revelation on offense, he simply isn't a solid post defender. In those losses, Indiana shot 51.6%, Michigan 54.7% and Minnesota, 58.9% despite losing their best player a minute into the game. The Inidana game is the concerning one. Indiana is 156th in KenPom on adjusted O. They still pounded the Badgers inside. One game later, Northwestern shut the Hooisers down. Is the defense beginning to get exposed? I think so.
If we look at their non-conference schedule, we see solid wins but we also see a lot of opponents that aren't exactly offensive juggernaughts. The following shows the points allowed and KP offensive ratings:
- St. John's; 75, 128th
- Florida; 53, 43rd
- UWGB; 66, 30th
- SLU; 57, 185th
- West Virginia; 63, 175th
- Virginia; 38, 66th
- Marquette; 64, 126th
- Northwestern; 49, 323rd
- Illinois; 70, 175th
They played Florida in a what we would conceive as a prototypical Badgers game, 60 possessions and the Gators were missing Dorian Finney-Smith & Scottie Wilbekin. By season's end, Florida's adjusted o number will be higher but when they played in Madison, they certainly weren't the team they will finish as. Virginia actually averages less possessions a game than Wisconsin and are prone to scoring droughts but Wisconsin still deserves a ton of credit for completely dominating the Cavaliers on the road. That game was also am oulier for the Wisconsin offense. Hard to say what we ultimately, if anything, take out of this game. Still, those wins aren't against top notch offenses. And their best defensive stretch came against UWM, Eastern Kentucky, Prarie View A&M & Northwestern
Wisconsin has a defensive problem. They lack an interior defender that intimidates teams though they still do some things well. It isn't likely the Badgers currently have someone on the roster that can become an interior presence. Kaminsky isn't that guy. Say what you will about Bergrenn or even Brusiewitz, but they provide interior heft. The Badgers can't or won't zone like some suggested. Bo isn't going to change and the guards just aren't long enough to do that effectively.
March for Wisconsin will be about getting teams in their bracket that are not efficient on offense. The teams they recently all played, save Indiana are very good offensive teams. The Badgers are as good on offense as they usually are based on efficiency and are more certainly more explosive. But, interior defense seems their likely downfall.
Low Major At Large Hopes
Toledo – it wasn’t that long ago that the MAC was a multiple bid league. Of course that was back in the Antonio Gates Kent State days. As for now Toledo looks like best bet among the low majors to be able to secure an at large bid. Currently they have an RPI of 39 with their two losses being at Western Michigan and at Kansas. Outside of Kansas they have not played any top 100 games. That may come back to haunt them come March. If they win out, and they don’t have the second place team in the MAC on the schedule (Akron), they would be 32-2 going into their championship game. Would a loss in that game relegate them to the NIT? With an easy schedule and no top 100 wins I could easily see their RPI falling from 39 to the mid-60’s and with that profile I’m not sure it’s going to happen.
Indiana State – Ah, the Missouri Valley, another old time multiple bid conference that has fallen on hard times. At this point Wichita State is a 1 seed but will the Valley get a second team? The most likely at this point are the Sycamores. At 15-4 most of their losses are against bid worthy teams, Wichita State, Belmont, and St. Louis however they don’t boast a top 50 win. 3-1 against 51-100 is a solid mark but a NCSOS of 231 is damaging. With 11 games left they have ample opportunities to build their resume. 4 games are against top 100 RPI teams with a visit from Wichita State on February 5 a must win. If they can spring the upset and avoid any bad losses they may be able to propel themselves into the discussion before the Valley Conference Tournament.
Tuesday, January 21, 2014
Preseason Over/Under Achiever Review
Last week we took a look at our preseason Final Four and readjusted our outlook. Today we are going to take a look back at the teams we pegged as our preseason over and under achievers.
Over-Achievers:
Iowa – Both Kurly and myself had them pegged as a sleeper and they haven’t disappointed. A top 30 RPI and a 5-3 record against the top 100 has their arrow pointed up. Their only three losses have been against Villanova and at Wisconsin and Iowa State. Currently a top 3-4 seed I’m expecting them to stay that high come March
Virginia – The Cavalier had a slow start but have been coming on as of late. They have 5 losses but all of them are against likely tournament teams (UWGB, Wisconsin, VCU, Tennessee, and Duke). A top 25 RPI and an 8-4 record against the top 100 has them poised for a likely 5-6 seed come March.
Under-Achievers:
Ohio State – Boy did this look like a miss two weeks ago. Now, however, we have a different story. 4 straight losses including a bad one at Nebraska has Ohio State reeling. Although they are 9-4 against the top 100 they only have 1 top 50 win and that’s against North Dakota State (RPI of 49). There’s not much strength behind that 15-4 record and they’ve fallen from a #1 seed two weeks ago to 7 in this mornings bracketology.
North Carolina – They have huge wins against Kentucky, Michigan State, and Louisville but everything else screams NIT. The committee likely won’t forget those big wins come March but UNC really needs to bounce back from their 1-4 ACC start. The bad losses against UAB, Wake, and Belmont almost counteract the big wins. They are going to have to pile up wins along the way as they only 4 games against likely tournament teams. A split against Duke might be a must at this point.
Monday, January 20, 2014
Creighton Pantsing Villanova
Creighton leads Villanova by 40 with 6:35 left at Villanova.
Creighton has 21 3 pointers. Ethan Wragge and his 71.1% effective fg% is 9-13 from deep.
Ethan Wragge is not human
Is Syracuse the best Team in the Land?
A popular sentiment amongst the college basketball litterati is, Syracuse might be the best team in the nation. Are they? Beats me. The tournament is in March. I do know this, heading into March last year, the sentiment on Syracuse was pretty cool and they went to the Final 4 and nearly made the title game, losing a hard fought game against Michigan. Let's compare 2013 end of season Syracuse to where they are now.
Offensively, Syracuse is a better team in 2014. I have a reason for that which we'll explore in a little bit. They have abetter effective fg%, 51.1% in '14 vs. 49 % in '13. They're turning it over much less this season as well. 2013 TO % was 18.9, this year? 15.7%. They've always been a good rebounding team on the offensive glass. 38.7 % offensive rebounding % last vs. 39.6 % this. Overall adjusted O is 6th as of today versus finishing 29th last year. The Orange only average 62 possessions per game, 344th in the nation. They have been largely efficient but low scoring games shouldn't surprise us when they happen and they have.
On the defensive side of the ball, Syracuse still does what Syracuse does for the most part and have gotten better in one important regard. Teams are shooting better against the Orange in 2014, largely from beyond the arc. Teams are shooting 33% from deep vs. 28.3 % last year. Overall effective fg % is worse this year, 48.6 %, 129th best. Last year, they were 5th at 42.6 %. They still force a lot of turnovers. TO % is 25.1 %, up a tick from 23.5 % last season. One glaring issue last year was they gave up a lot of offensive boards to the opposition, a result of playing zone. Their defensive rebounding % was 34.4% last year, 281st. It's at the national average this season, about 3% better than last. In low possession contests, allowing fewer extended possessions is a plus. As they were last year, they're also amongst the national leaders in defensive block and steal %.
The clear difference to me between last year and this year is the point guard play. Michael Carter Williams was a wildly gifted player prone to bouts of indifference or inconsistency. The NCAA tournament sort of highlights Syracuse mirroring MCW.
Against Cal, MCW had 12 pts, 1 assist and 5 to's. Syracuse won that game by 6 in what was their closest game ofthe dance until they eventually lost to Michigan. MCW was very good against Indiana, scoring 24 points on 9-19 shooting in their Sweet 16 win against Indiana who were baffled by the Syracuse zone but a solid game from MCW certainly helped. Against Marquette, Williams had 12pts, 8 boards and 6 dimes as the Orange easily dispatched the Eagles. Against Michigan, he all but disappeared, getting outclassed by Trey Burke. MCW was 1-6 from the field and added only 2 assists.
Fast forward to this season and his replacement has been arguably the best freshman in the nation. Yeah, the best. Tyler Ennis has an Ortg (Offensive rating is points produced per possession by player) of 122.4. Williams was 102.6. Ennis has an effective fg% of 48.1 %, MCW was 43.8 %. Williams jacked 120 3's, making only 29 % of them. Ennis is more efficient, going 16-40, 40%. Williams had a better assist rate but Ennis protects the ball much better. The backcourt overall protects the ball better. The difference between last and this? Better point guard play in 2014.
Syracuse has a lot more going on than just Tyler Ennis. CJ Fair is quietly closing out a brilliant career. Trevor Cooney has provided offensive punch and Jerami Grant has been a solid all-around player. Also, watch Rakeem Christmas in the next 6 weeks. If he continues to improve, Syracuse will have another piece. But to me, the difference between last and this is largely the better PG play and last year's team went to a Final 4. It's an awful lot to expect a FROSH PG to lead a team on a deep run in March but Ennis might be the guy.
Are they the best team? Could be and the talk isn't crazy or silly.
Offensively, Syracuse is a better team in 2014. I have a reason for that which we'll explore in a little bit. They have abetter effective fg%, 51.1% in '14 vs. 49 % in '13. They're turning it over much less this season as well. 2013 TO % was 18.9, this year? 15.7%. They've always been a good rebounding team on the offensive glass. 38.7 % offensive rebounding % last vs. 39.6 % this. Overall adjusted O is 6th as of today versus finishing 29th last year. The Orange only average 62 possessions per game, 344th in the nation. They have been largely efficient but low scoring games shouldn't surprise us when they happen and they have.
On the defensive side of the ball, Syracuse still does what Syracuse does for the most part and have gotten better in one important regard. Teams are shooting better against the Orange in 2014, largely from beyond the arc. Teams are shooting 33% from deep vs. 28.3 % last year. Overall effective fg % is worse this year, 48.6 %, 129th best. Last year, they were 5th at 42.6 %. They still force a lot of turnovers. TO % is 25.1 %, up a tick from 23.5 % last season. One glaring issue last year was they gave up a lot of offensive boards to the opposition, a result of playing zone. Their defensive rebounding % was 34.4% last year, 281st. It's at the national average this season, about 3% better than last. In low possession contests, allowing fewer extended possessions is a plus. As they were last year, they're also amongst the national leaders in defensive block and steal %.
The clear difference to me between last year and this year is the point guard play. Michael Carter Williams was a wildly gifted player prone to bouts of indifference or inconsistency. The NCAA tournament sort of highlights Syracuse mirroring MCW.
Against Cal, MCW had 12 pts, 1 assist and 5 to's. Syracuse won that game by 6 in what was their closest game ofthe dance until they eventually lost to Michigan. MCW was very good against Indiana, scoring 24 points on 9-19 shooting in their Sweet 16 win against Indiana who were baffled by the Syracuse zone but a solid game from MCW certainly helped. Against Marquette, Williams had 12pts, 8 boards and 6 dimes as the Orange easily dispatched the Eagles. Against Michigan, he all but disappeared, getting outclassed by Trey Burke. MCW was 1-6 from the field and added only 2 assists.
Fast forward to this season and his replacement has been arguably the best freshman in the nation. Yeah, the best. Tyler Ennis has an Ortg (Offensive rating is points produced per possession by player) of 122.4. Williams was 102.6. Ennis has an effective fg% of 48.1 %, MCW was 43.8 %. Williams jacked 120 3's, making only 29 % of them. Ennis is more efficient, going 16-40, 40%. Williams had a better assist rate but Ennis protects the ball much better. The backcourt overall protects the ball better. The difference between last and this? Better point guard play in 2014.
Syracuse has a lot more going on than just Tyler Ennis. CJ Fair is quietly closing out a brilliant career. Trevor Cooney has provided offensive punch and Jerami Grant has been a solid all-around player. Also, watch Rakeem Christmas in the next 6 weeks. If he continues to improve, Syracuse will have another piece. But to me, the difference between last and this is largely the better PG play and last year's team went to a Final 4. It's an awful lot to expect a FROSH PG to lead a team on a deep run in March but Ennis might be the guy.
Are they the best team? Could be and the talk isn't crazy or silly.
Monday Bracketology
1 seed vs 16 seed
Arizona (P12) vs Southern(SWAC)/SavanahSt (MEAC)
Syracuse (ACC) vs Chattanoga(SoCon)/Radford(Bsouth)
Michigan State (B1G) vs South Dakota (Summit)
Villanova (Beast) vs Old Dominion (Cusa)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Wichita State (MVC) vs Robert Morris (NEC)
Kansas (B12) vs N.Colorado (Bsky)
Florida (SEC) vs Stony Brook (Aest)
San Diego St (MWC) vs Utah Valley (WAC)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Kentucky vs UC-Irvine (Bwest)
Wisconsin vs Georgia St (Sbelt)
Iowa vs Boston (Pat)
Massachusettes (A10) vs Stephen F. Austin (Sland)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Oklahoma State vs Delaware (Colonial)
Iowa State vs Belmont (OVC)
Duke vs Mercer(Asun)
Ohio State vs Manhatten (MAAC)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Gonzaga (WCC) vs UW-Green Bay (Horizon)
Cincinnati (AAC) vs Toledo (MAC)
Creighton vs SMU/BYU
Pittsburgh vs Stanford/Southern Miss
6 seed vs 11 seed
Baylor vs Georgetown
Colorado vs VCU
Louisville vs Minnesota
St. Louis vs Texas
7 seed vs 10 seed
Memphis vs Florida State
Michigan vs North Carolina
Connecticut vs California
Virginia vs George Washington
8 seed vs 9 seed
Xavier vs Oklahoma
Harvard (Ivy) vs Oregon
New Mexico vs Missouri
UCLA vs Kansas State
First Four Out
St. Mary's
Dayton
Illinois
Tennessee
Next Four Out
Boise State
LSU
Clemson
Indiana
Also Considered
Arizona State
North Dakota State
LaSalle
Wake Forest
North Carolina St
Mississippi
Maryland
Arkansas
Utah State
Louisiana Tech
UNLV
Purdue
Indiana State
Providence
Notre Dame
Missouri State
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