While I agree with Brian on Arizona and UCLA, if this a four-bid league (Likely), I will take Colorado and California over Stanford.
A few thoughts on Arizona and UCLA. I like Arizona's future better than UCLA but they have a few issues in Tempe, namely the run-ins with the law. Sean Miller has brought back high expectations on the court but off the court issues could slow that momentum. Take a gander at the rap sheet. It isn't pretty. As for UCLA, Ben Howland brought in a Calipari-esque class, one capable of going deep in March. How much will they play? Beats me and super Frosh Shabazz Muhammad is hurt and missing practice and game time with the NCAA investigating him as well. I'm not nearly as sold on UCLA as many others are. Probably means 30 wins but...
I'm higher on Colorado than Brian because I think Tad Boyle is one of the best kept secrets in the coaching ranks nationally. The Buffs have arguably their best class ever coming in and are building a real home court advantage.
If Arizona and UCLA are ascending, the Pac-12 should be moving back towards respectability. Washington and USC could make noise as well giving the Pac-12 at least 7 teams in the discussion for a dance spot. Doubtful they'll be this low on the conference totem pole in the future.
Friday, October 26, 2012
Ah, The Pac-12
The best conference on that side of the Mississippi! Oh, wait….have we gotten to the Mountain West conference yet? No? Umm, ok then how about the second best conference that side of the Mississippi (Just keep an eye on the WCC while you’re at it Pac-12).
Last year was a mess for the Pac-12 as they added two new teams and barely sent that many to the dance. This year looks a little better but with UCLA’s prized freshman not cleared to play yet it looks like another down year. Only 1 team looks to be legit Elite Eight material but they might be able to squeeze a few more bids out of the committee in 2013.
Starting at the top it looks like a two horse race between UCLA and Arizona. Of course this depends on Shabazz Muhommad and Kyle Andersons eligibility. If they miss significant time it’s Arizona all the way. After that it’s a tightly packed race for bid 3 and possibly 4 between California, Stanford, Colorado, and Washington. Washington doesn’t seem to have enough bigs to contend so let’s drop them right now. Colorado seemed to over achieve last year but Andre Robinson is a stud. Will the lure of the NBA cloud his judgement on the floor? California lost their two leaders but Allen Crabbe is back. Stanford…well, they have Johnny Dawkins coaching. Take that as a plus or a minus.
In short the Pac-12 continues to be a mess and one of the next 4 (California) wins the auto-bid to join UCLA, Arizona, and let’s say Stanford in the dance.
Last year was a mess for the Pac-12 as they added two new teams and barely sent that many to the dance. This year looks a little better but with UCLA’s prized freshman not cleared to play yet it looks like another down year. Only 1 team looks to be legit Elite Eight material but they might be able to squeeze a few more bids out of the committee in 2013.
Starting at the top it looks like a two horse race between UCLA and Arizona. Of course this depends on Shabazz Muhommad and Kyle Andersons eligibility. If they miss significant time it’s Arizona all the way. After that it’s a tightly packed race for bid 3 and possibly 4 between California, Stanford, Colorado, and Washington. Washington doesn’t seem to have enough bigs to contend so let’s drop them right now. Colorado seemed to over achieve last year but Andre Robinson is a stud. Will the lure of the NBA cloud his judgement on the floor? California lost their two leaders but Allen Crabbe is back. Stanford…well, they have Johnny Dawkins coaching. Take that as a plus or a minus.
In short the Pac-12 continues to be a mess and one of the next 4 (California) wins the auto-bid to join UCLA, Arizona, and let’s say Stanford in the dance.
Thursday, October 25, 2012
More A-10
Four bids out of this conference seems like a stretch save a run from someone ala, the Bonnies in 2012. Brian nailed the five faves plus St. Joe's.
St. Louis also loses SR. G, Milwaukee native Kwamain Mitchell for the beginning of the season to injury. It's a shame Majerus doesn't have the opportunity to coach this team. They'd be an intriguing team to watch next spring and maybe they still will be.
It's hard to believe the A-10 discussion this year doesn't include Sweet 16 regular, Xavier. The Musketeers have made the Sweet 16, 4 of the last 5 years but lost a good chunk of their talent from last year's team. Despite a Sweet 16 run, some thought maybe they underachieved last year following the Crosstown Shootout brawl. I'm not sleeping on them. They may start slow but let's see how they're playing in February.
St. Bonaventure and LaSalle will also be capable of a A-10 tournament run. The team to keep an eye on will be Rhode Island. The Rams tabbed Dan Hurley to take over the program and he brought along brother Bobby. They're short of manpower, only 8 players currently eligible but they have a player from Michigan named Jordan Hare (How he didn't end up at Auburn) who at one point was a top-50 player. The Hurley brothers have been snagging some solid recruits and have some good transfers ready to play next year. Again, they might be ugly this year but look for a much improved team as the season moves along. They'll be contenders sooner than later
St. Louis also loses SR. G, Milwaukee native Kwamain Mitchell for the beginning of the season to injury. It's a shame Majerus doesn't have the opportunity to coach this team. They'd be an intriguing team to watch next spring and maybe they still will be.
It's hard to believe the A-10 discussion this year doesn't include Sweet 16 regular, Xavier. The Musketeers have made the Sweet 16, 4 of the last 5 years but lost a good chunk of their talent from last year's team. Despite a Sweet 16 run, some thought maybe they underachieved last year following the Crosstown Shootout brawl. I'm not sleeping on them. They may start slow but let's see how they're playing in February.
St. Bonaventure and LaSalle will also be capable of a A-10 tournament run. The team to keep an eye on will be Rhode Island. The Rams tabbed Dan Hurley to take over the program and he brought along brother Bobby. They're short of manpower, only 8 players currently eligible but they have a player from Michigan named Jordan Hare (How he didn't end up at Auburn) who at one point was a top-50 player. The Hurley brothers have been snagging some solid recruits and have some good transfers ready to play next year. Again, they might be ugly this year but look for a much improved team as the season moves along. They'll be contenders sooner than later
Conference #8 - Atlantic 10, err 16
This isn’t your Grandpa’s A-10…this isn’t even 2011’s version of the A-10. This year’s mid-major darlings will come from this new souped up group which added 3 of the last 12 final four participants Butler and VCU to an already formidable group that includes St. Louis, Temple, Xavier, UMass, and St. Joseph’s.
Starting at the top I think the new guy, VCU, is the team to beat. With Rick Majerus stuck in his hotel dreaming about Ashley Judd all season St. Louis will probably be slow out of the gate and have to settle for 2nd place. Coming in third, in their swan song before sliding to the Big East are the Temple Owls. Yes, they’ve lost a little from last year but Fran Dunphy always seems to bring a winner. After those three it gets a little muddier. I think the A-10 will be a 4 bid league but it’s tight to see who Team #4 might be. Butler brings back 4 starters and adds Rotnei Clark but this is a big step up in class from the Horizon. UMass looks poised to finally break on through and St. Joe’s brings back basically it’s whole team from last year. It wouldn’t surprise me to see all 6 of these teams in the hunt come March but I’m going with a minor upset in the conference tournament as Butler secures the auto-bid to join VCU, St. Louis, and Temple in the big dance.
Starting at the top I think the new guy, VCU, is the team to beat. With Rick Majerus stuck in his hotel dreaming about Ashley Judd all season St. Louis will probably be slow out of the gate and have to settle for 2nd place. Coming in third, in their swan song before sliding to the Big East are the Temple Owls. Yes, they’ve lost a little from last year but Fran Dunphy always seems to bring a winner. After those three it gets a little muddier. I think the A-10 will be a 4 bid league but it’s tight to see who Team #4 might be. Butler brings back 4 starters and adds Rotnei Clark but this is a big step up in class from the Horizon. UMass looks poised to finally break on through and St. Joe’s brings back basically it’s whole team from last year. It wouldn’t surprise me to see all 6 of these teams in the hunt come March but I’m going with a minor upset in the conference tournament as Butler secures the auto-bid to join VCU, St. Louis, and Temple in the big dance.
The Best in the West?
Conference #9 isn’t going to be much of a surprise as we look to the West Coast conference for three more bids in the NCAA Tournament. Strong at the top the WCC will be led again by Gonzaga after a 1 year hiatus of not winning the league. St. Mary’s and BYU, which seem very evenly matched, will battle for 2nd and 3rd. With each of these three beating on each other I foresee high enough RPI’s to warrant 3 bids out of the WCC this year. The Zags are projected in the 4-6 range while BYU and St. Mary’s hang around the 10-11 spots. The WCC is ready to make some more noise this year.
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
Valley Counterpoint
The A-10 and Valley are going to be my conferences du jour this year. I like Brian's thinking on the Valley. Recent history shows Creighton will need a special season to move up the seed line. Can they?
Their non-conference schedule includes home games against North Texas (A Sun Belt favorite with returning player of the year Tony Mitchell) and a home game against St. Joseph's. They have road games at California (Bubble team) and Nebraska (in-state "rival"). Creighton is also playing in the *ahem*, Continental Tire Las Vegas Invitational. They include fluffer games against Longwood and Presbyterian before heading to Vegas on 11-23 to take on Wisconsin. They will either play Arkansas or Arizona State after that. Beating Bucky and California would be good wins and they must beat North Texas and St. Joe's.
Both Drake in 2008 and Wichita State last year achieved 5 seeds and both got rewarded with playing other "mid-majors", WKU and VCU respectively. I really like Creighton this year but think Sweet 16 is their ceiling.
The other 3 contenders are, as Brian noted, Wichita State, Illinois State and UNI. I'll lean towards UNI as the other bid. Wichita State lost their 3 top scorers, though they add Oregon transfer Malcolm Armstead and top 100 prospect Fred Van Fleet. Illinois State lost head coach Tim Jankovich to SMU but replaced him with Dan Muller, a respected assistant at Vandy. UNI brings back most of their top players and have a tough schedule the computers should like.
Creighton and who and where on the line for the BlueJays?
Their non-conference schedule includes home games against North Texas (A Sun Belt favorite with returning player of the year Tony Mitchell) and a home game against St. Joseph's. They have road games at California (Bubble team) and Nebraska (in-state "rival"). Creighton is also playing in the *ahem*, Continental Tire Las Vegas Invitational. They include fluffer games against Longwood and Presbyterian before heading to Vegas on 11-23 to take on Wisconsin. They will either play Arkansas or Arizona State after that. Beating Bucky and California would be good wins and they must beat North Texas and St. Joe's.
Both Drake in 2008 and Wichita State last year achieved 5 seeds and both got rewarded with playing other "mid-majors", WKU and VCU respectively. I really like Creighton this year but think Sweet 16 is their ceiling.
The other 3 contenders are, as Brian noted, Wichita State, Illinois State and UNI. I'll lean towards UNI as the other bid. Wichita State lost their 3 top scorers, though they add Oregon transfer Malcolm Armstead and top 100 prospect Fred Van Fleet. Illinois State lost head coach Tim Jankovich to SMU but replaced him with Dan Muller, a respected assistant at Vandy. UNI brings back most of their top players and have a tough schedule the computers should like.
Creighton and who and where on the line for the BlueJays?
Top Ten Baby!
Our countdown continues with Conference #10, the Missouri Valley. Not long ago the Valley was a perennial 3-4 team bid league but over the past couple of years those bids have dwindled. This year doesn’t seem to be the break through they are looking for either. Creighton is by far the top team again this year, led by Doug McDermott. They have the pieces to not only make the tournament but make some noise in March. A Sweet Sixteen is a starting point for them. After Creighton there’s a three team battle for a second bid. Wichita State, Illinois State, and Northern Iowa all look like they will be battling in the conference tournament for an auto-bid should their profiles not be enough. When the dust settles I see the Valley as a two bid league represented by Creighton and Illinois State.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)