Meet the New Boss

Thoughts on the weekend include the vast difference of how the national champion won the title. A complete beatdown of one of the best teams in the nation in a game that was breathtaking for the ease at which Michigan dismantled whatever Arizona tried doing. Then, finding a way to win getting dragged into the mud by UConn, whose game plan was simple and effective. How Michigan won last night versus Saturday is so stark, that it’s a true testament to what a good basketball team they were.

Quick aside, Danny Hurley is a certifiable lunatic but great for the sport. What a brilliant coaching job getting this team to the title game and being in it to the end. As long as he’s at UConn, they’ll always be a threat.

I’ve seen some talk of this Michigan team being an all-timer. The numbers certainly support it but as I wrote a month back or so, roster construction has widened the gap between good and elite. I think comparing this team to Villanova of ‘18 or Kentucky of ‘12 or UNC of ‘09 isn’t fair. Different rules and simply put, a different era.

That gets to the crux of the state of the sport. The Big 18 and SEC are widening the gap between themselves and the rest of the conferences. I don’t think this is a one-off. Forget the TV money, the rich alum, especially in the Big 18 are going to have such an advantage on the rest of the sport, I’m not sure how the Big XIIIIII, ACC and Big East compete against the deeper pockets.

Now, each league will have teams with big budgets. Duke and Carolina will never be outbid for players. Nor will Kansas. Texas Tech has oil money pouring into the athletic department but I think the bigger picture is, most members of those leagues are facing uphill battles. 

Cincinnati and Xavier could compete against Ohio State in Ohio but the money cannon in Columbus dwarfs those schools. Iowa State is staring straight down a rejuvenated Iowa whose alum base and money is far greater. You get the point. It’s going to take a lot of pieces to fit for some of these schools to compete at that level. Coach, university alignment, alum willing to match what the money schools can and so on. 

Money has always been the dominant factor in college athletics. Duke has been bathing in Nike money for decades. It matters. It won’t happen because the SEC and Big 18 won’t let it, but collective bargaining is the answer. It’s a new era and that era is going to be dominated by the Evil Empire, the Big 18 and to a lesser extent, it’s apprentice, the SEC.

Final 4: Looking Back, Looking Forward

The Sins of the Father

The big takeaway from the Duke-UConn result hasn’t been about UConn’s tenacity or fight, but Jon Scheyer’s team blowing a big lead. In a HOT TAEK world, we have to give our hot take and this one is on a platter.

Scheyer lives in a shadow that he helped create. He’ll forever be hated simply for winning a title at Duke and having the audacity to be their head coach. So, in his failure, many find joy. It takes me back to when I wrote something similar when Kentucky didn’t complete their perfect season, we hate winners and we hate those that win too much. I get why people hated Coach K at the end and Scheyer gets that thrust on him before really “earning” the hate. Trust me, there was a time people liked Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes.

The book on Scheyer is just starting. His predecessor knows better than anyone the failure of March before the joy of victory. Roy Williams, Jim Calhoun, John Calipari, Nolan Richardson and so on, all knew the hot take world before the breakthrough. Unfortunately for Duke and Scheyer, until they/he does breakthrough, the questions about him as a coach will remain because we are fundamentally stupid when it comes to nuance and quite frankly, reality. Anyone that has watched Scheyer develop as a coach knows this, he can coach. But that doesn’t sell and isn’t an interesting perspective.

The Weekend That Was

Nobody was terribly surprised that Illinois wore down Iowa. Illinois benefited from great matchups in their region. More on this later, too. To their credit, they took advantage of the matchups and return to the Final 4 for the 1st time in two decades.

Arizona looked mortal for a half and then throttled Purdue. Purdue shot 50% from 3 in the 1st half and then 1 for 8 in the second half. The Wildcats defense stuffed Purdue into the garbage and Purdue’s defense got exposed. I’d mark this one down as an important loss in the Matt Painter era. Pre-season number 1 failed to make Indy and they lose a lot. Very curious to see where they head from here.

Brian texted me during the Michigan game after they jumped out big. I knew this would be a laugher and went golfing instead of watching. It’s a shame Joshua Jefferson got hurt. Credit to Tennessee for making another Elite 8 but they were just a speed bump for this Wolverine squad.

Final thought on Duke-UConn. I thought the turning point was the final 4 minutes of the first half. Duke went cold and while UConn only cut it to 15 from 19, it sure felt like ol’ Mo had switched sides. Not blaming injuries here, UConn is good and a worthy Final 4 team, but it would have been nice to see Caleb Foster at 100%.

The Final 4: Initial Blush

The crowds should be wild. It’s largely corporate nowadays but all 4 schools travel well. Good luck getting a reasonable ticket. And if the final is Michigan-Illinois, ticket prices will be the highest they’ve ever been on the secondary market.

Michigan-Arizona will be regarded as the de facto title game and very well might be. This is a great matchup. I wonder if Zona has enough offense to match Michigan. I wonder if Michigan can hold Arizona in check on the glass. Toss the ball up because it’s a pick ‘em.

Illinois-UConn hinges on whether UConn can do enough offensively against Illinois. I think this is a pretty good matchup for the Illini in that regard. Tarris Reed has probably been the best player in March and can absolutely match Illinois inside. He’ll have to be a bully. UConn beat them by 13 earlier in the year but the guards looked better back then. I think I lean Illinois but UConn is UConn. Another pick ‘em.

Elite 8: Looking Back, Looking Ahead

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss, the losers lament.

1. Nebraska - It’s hard to be critical of Nebraska. First tournament wins ever and a Sweet 16 appearance. Magical season in Lincoln.

2. Texas - Hard to be critical of Texas, either, but Sean Miller comes up short in a big moment again. Not having the big man out there, especially against that Purdue team was certainly a choice. 

3. Houston - If we’ve said it once, we’ve said it a million times, the offense will let them down. Efficient through the course of the season, always susceptible in a single-elimination tournament. To only score 55 against that Illinois team is quite the achievement. No sugarcoating it, losing to them isn’t a shame, losing that way is.

4. Arkansas - Back-to-back Sweet 16’s, can Cal take the next step here? He’ll have to fix the defensive side of the the ball, a year after the offense was the issue. Been sometime since one of his teams has been championship good on both sides of the ball.

5. St. John’s - The Johnnies actually made buckets last night. It was their issue the last two seasons. Pitino needs better backcourts or their ceiling is quite limited. He was a bit cantankerous in the postgame about Duke bullying them after they got up 10. The bully hates being bullied.

6. Alabama - Roster issues again. Coach is responsible for how he builds his roster and with who. Another year, more drama. Plus, time to find an assistant to fix the defense.

7. Michigan State - Sparty hasn’t been to the Final 4 since 2019. They’ll be a trendy pick next year assuming Fears is back but we can retire the “Izzo is March” nonsense. Haven’t had a top-20 offense since Covid.

8. Iowa State - Offensive bugaboos caught up to them. Was better through the course of the season and not having Jefferson makes this hard to grade but 15-25 from the line and 22% from 3 sounds like how we’d expect them to get knocked out. Absolutely bullied by the Vols. Second weekend might be the ceiling in Ames.

Elite 8 Thoughts

Iowa-Illinois is such a classic Big Ten matchup. Old rivalry with a trip to the Final 4 on the line. Super cool matchup for fans of the real Big Ten, not the Frankenstein league it is.

Purdue-Arizona is about stopping the oafish Purdue team. This Purdue team is wholly unlikable and way more representative of the 21st century Big 18. Arizona has a lot of demons to slay tonight.

Duke-UConn is another classic matchup. They’ve played some memorable March games but it’s been a minute since they’ve met. Met 4 times between 90-04 in the tournament, splitting, with UConn winning on the final weekend twice and Duke winning twice on the second weekend. Basketball schools unapologetically meeting for a trip to the Final 4 the way it should be.

Michigan-Tennessee is the shoulder shrug matchup. The Vols can physically match Michigan, something the Wolverines really haven’t dealt with yet in the tourney but the Vols offense is not good. Completely predicated on second chance points, if they can get Mara in foul trouble and make it a slog, they can finally make a Final 4 but it’s sure feels like Michigan is playing with its food right now waiting for the main course.

Looking back, Looking ahead

I’d have been better off just saying what I’ve believed all year, the tournament would be chalk but that’s boring. Welp, while we had some great games, it was largely chalk.

Each region has 1-non protected seed. The East has St. John’s, a 5-seed who beat Kansas. The only people surprised by this are rabid Jayhawks fans. In the Midwest, Virginia lost to Tennessee, the 6-seed, who entered the tournament 16th in KenPom, which if we re-seeded that way, they’d have been a 4. Your outliers are out West where we have this year’s Cinderella, the school with the biggest athletic budget in the nation. In the South, Iowa’s win was shocking but they would’ve been a 6 using KenPom for seeding purposes and at one time, were top 20 in offense and defense this year. That game is worthy of a deep dive and I’ll be very curious about Iowa moving beyond 2026. They’ve basically switched bodies with Wisconsin and that will be fascinating to watch play out.

We’re probably a year away from making a definitive statement about the lack of upsets the last two years. I’ll caution anyone who makes too big a deal out of this year. Conference tournament upsets cost us a few really good regular season champs. Don’t know if those teams would have won but the seed lines from 12-15 would have looked much different and that matters! Whatever the case, expansion is a terrible idea.

Let’s now re-seed the remaining 16:

1. Michigan (1)

2. Arizona (2)

3. Duke (3)

4. Houston (4)

5. Illinois (6)

6. Iowa State (7)

7. Purdue (8)

8. Michigan State (9)

9. UConn (10)

10. Alabama (12)

11. Nebraska (13)

12. Tennessee (14)

13. St. John’s (16)

14. Arkansas (17)

15. Iowa (22)

16. Texas (31)

Teams Left With Defensive Concerns (Non Top-20)

Purdue, Illinois, Alabama, Arkansas, Iowa, Texas 

Teams Left With Offensive Concerns (Non Top-20)

Michigan State, UConn, Nebraska, Tennessee, St. John’s, Iowa 

Illinois and Michigan State are just outside looking in here. 

Illinois-Houston is a national title game in the Sweet 16 good and the best matchup. The worst matchup is Texas-Purdue.  The craziest matchup is Nebraska-Iowa.  The old school matchup is Duke-St. John’s. The best bowl game is Michigan-Alabama. Final 4 rematches of yore are Michigan State-UConn and Arkansas-Arizona. And then there is Iowa State-Tennessee 🤷🏼‍♂️

Final thought is about the weekend schedule and how the first two games of the day are in the same region. I understand the desire to get as many games into prime time and fill the whole day but I think staggering start times beginning at 1PM EST and 2PM EST in separate regions and having 2nd game tips in those regions at around 3 and 4PM EST would be ideal and repeat until 8PM EST. Tipping near 10PM EST is ridiculous, especially on Sunday. Realistically, the second games in each region won’t start on time anyway, so you’ll bleed well into the evening and maximize prime time. 

BRACKET ANALYSIS

Read this and make some cash.

No reseeding this year. I haven’t looked but I bet 68 out of 68 teams correctly picked by bracketologists was at an all-time high. And while there are quibbles about where teams were located and some seeding quibbles, I don’t have a lot of complaints.

A few bold predictions (Do I believe them? Maybe):

1. No 4 or 5 seeds lose in round 1. The 12’s and 13’s are historically bad this year and it’ll be chalky Thursday and Friday.

2. People keep saying Duke has the hardest path of the 1-seeds but neither UConn or Michigan State make the Sweet 16 alleviating some stress and while I have the 4 and 5 surviving, they aren’t real threats to Duke.

3. East sleeper is Northern Iowa. Yes, that’s a 12-seed but if there is a 12-seed that makes noise, it’s them.

4. The South is interesting in that Houston could have a home game against Florida in the regional final but it won’t matter as St. Mary’s knocks off the Cougars in round 2 and make the regional final.

5. Nebraska wins a tournament game and makes the Sweet 16. If they beat Florida in that round, St. Mary’s makes the Final 4. If Florida beats Nebraska, they make the Final 4.

6. The Midwest feels like the chaos region. Michigan loses in round 2 to either Georgia or SLU. Santa Clara shocks Iowa State.

7. Miami beats SMU and then beats Tennessee but loses to eventual Final 4 participant Virginia. Texas Tech makes the regional final without Toppin.

8. The West is maybe wild. Purdue loses in round 2. Way too much being made of the Big 18 Tournament. Trendy picks based on conference tournament runs are very boom or bust and I’m betting this is a bust. 

9. Arkansas/Wisconsin/High Point matchups yield a game where both teams hit 100. Seeing a lot of complaining about Wisconsin’s seed, location and tip time. Poor babies having to travel all the way to Portland and play at 10:50 local time and only having 4 days off. Hope they can handle such adversity. 🙄

10. Final 4 is Duke, Arizona, Florida and Virginia. Duke beats Arizona for the title 

Things that won’t surprise me:

1. All 1-seeds make the Final 4

2. I’m completely wrong on the 12 + 13 prediction and that is blown up completely by the end of play Thursday.

3. Big 18 and SEC lays an egg. Big 18 has a problem and that problem is the awful officiating within the league. It is arguably one of the biggest disservices to them when it comes to March. The officiating in Chicago last week was abhorrent. The SEC doesn’t have any elite teams outside Florida.

4. On the other end, the Big XIIIIII has half the Elite 8.

5. All 14-seeds make the 3-seeds sweat in round one and 2 of the 15-seeds take 2-seeds to the wire but ultimately, no upsets.

See y’all soon.

Final Bracket

1. Duke  vs  16. LeHigh/Prairie View A&M
1. Michigan  vs  16. Howard/LIU
1. Arizona  vs  16. Idaho
1. Florida  vs  16. Queens
2. Houston  vs  15. Kennesaw St.
2. Connecticut  vs  15. Furman
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. UMBC
2. Michigan St.  vs  15. Siena
3. Vanderbilt  vs  14. Tennessee St.
3. Illinois  vs  14. Wright St.
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. Penn
3. Purdue  vs  14. Troy
4. Nebraska  vs  13. North Dakota St.
4. Alabama  vs  13. Hawaii
4. St. John's  vs  13. Cal Baptist
4. Virginia  vs  13. Hofstra
5. Arkansas  vs  12. Northern Iowa
5. Texas Tech  vs  12. McNeese St.
5. Kansas  vs  12. High Point
5. Wisconsin  vs  12. Akron
6. Louisville  vs  11. SMU/Missouri
6. Tennessee  vs  11. Miami OH/Texas
6. BYU  vs  11. South Florida
6. Kentucky  vs  11. VCU
7. Miami Fl  vs  10. Santa Clara
7. North Carolina  vs  10. N.C. State
7. Saint Mary's  vs  10. UCF
7. UCLA  vs  10. Saint Louis
8. Clemson  vs  9. Texas A&M
8. Villanova  vs  9. Iowa
8. Utah St.  vs  9. TCU
8. Georgia  vs  9. Ohio St.

First Four Out - San Diego St.

First Four Out - Auburn

First Four Out - Oklahoma

First Four Out - New Mexico

Next Four Out - Dayton

Next Four Out - Stanford

Next Four Out - Indiana

Next Four Out - Cincinnati

Also Considered - West Virginia

Also Considered - Seton Hall

Also Considered - Virginia Tech

Also Considered - California

Selection Sunday

 The day of Selection is upon us.  There are 5 games left in the regular season and it appears only 1 viable bid stealer is still hanging around.  I'm looking at you Dayton.  Texas and SMU will be watching on tightly as they are the two most likely to be cut.  Should be a fun day of basketball.  Final bracket soon.

Bracketology

 1. Duke  vs  16. LeHigh/Southern
1. Michigan  vs  16. Howard/LIU
1. Arizona  vs  16. UMBC
1. Florida  vs  16. Queens
2. Houston  vs  15. Louisiana Tech
2. Connecticut  vs  15. Furman
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Tennessee St.
2. Illinois  vs  15. Siena
3. Nebraska  vs  14. Idaho
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. Wright St.
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. Troy
3. Purdue  vs  14. North Dakota St.
4. Alabama  vs  13. UC Irvine
4. Vanderbilt  vs  13. Utah Valley
4. Kansas  vs  13. Hofstra
4. Virginia  vs  13. Yale
5. Arkansas  vs  12. Northern Iowa
5. Texas Tech  vs  12. McNeese St.
5. Tennessee  vs  12. High Point
5. St. John's  vs  12. Akron
6. Louisville  vs  11. SMU/Missouri
6. Wisconsin  vs  11. VCU/Texas
6. BYU  vs  11. South Florida
6. Kentucky  vs  11. Miami OH
7. Villanova  vs  10. Santa Clara
7. North Carolina  vs  10. N.C. State
7. Saint Mary's  vs  10. UCF
7. UCLA  vs  10. Saint Louis
8. Clemson  vs  9. Texas A&M
8. Miami Fl  vs  9. Iowa
8. Utah St.  vs  9. TCU
8. Ohio St.  vs  9. Georgia

First Four Out - San Diego St.

First Four Out - Auburn

First Four Out - Oklahoma

First Four Out - New Mexico

Next Four Out - Seton Hall

Next Four Out - Stanford

Next Four Out - Indiana

Next Four Out - Cincinnati

Bids and More

 Lots of solid action yesterday as the conference tournaments wind down.  11 Bids go out today and there are a lot of 1 vs 2 seeds.  It should make for some great action later tonight.  The day starts out this morning with UMBC vs Vermont and ends with Cal Baptist vs Utah Valley.  It will be a great day to sit, relax, and watch some basketball.

Those who won't be relaxing are SMU, Texas, and Missouri.  I have all 3 team in right now but there are some bid stealers still alive.  The biggest one today is San Diego State, who is my first team out.  They play Utah State in the Mountain West Championship and a win there will push out a team.  Right now I'm leaning Texas but it's worth a second or third look.

Other bid stealers out there are from the A-10 and SEC. Mississippi is streaking and would need to beat Arkansas today and probably Florida tomorrow.  Not impossible but not likely either.  The A-10 has St. Joseph's vs VCU and Dayton vs Saint Louis.  Dayton or St. Joe's could take a spot up with 2 wins.

A new Bracket will come out later today but until then, enjoy the games

The Historically Weak Bubble

Brian knows better than me, but barring bid thievery in the A-10, AAC and Mountain West, the bubble looks like it has played itself out. Is this the weakest bubble yet?

We tend to hear that yearly, so I typically dismiss it to recency bias but I saw something last week that piqued my interest. An argument was made that the use of the portal hasn’t just hurt mid-majors but also has hurt power conference teams. The argument is, the talent has been accumulated more tightly on teams and the bubble teams are simply worse because the teams are worse. Makes sense when you say it out loud.

In 2016, the top ranked KenPom team was Villanova at +32.01.  25th was Vandy at +18.76, a difference of 13.25. This year, Duke is +39.26 and Iowa is +22.40, a difference of 16.86. Take it out further to 50 and it’s 17.86 vs. 23.59. The gap between the top teams and the chasers in the middle is widening. 

Now, this is cherry-picking on my part just doing a 10-year gap. It’s hardly conclusive but does underly the idea of a weaker bubble. It also illustrates how teams are adapting to the analytics era of the sport but that’s a different topic. Teams are playing more efficiently but the talent gap is widening from the top down.

There’s also an argument to be made about bloated conferences as well. Uneven conference schedules doesn’t help. Without true round robins, I believe the conferences are cannibalizing one another in some instances. The SEC is a good example this year. When you have one alpha, Florida, and the rest are good but not great, you get what you get this year. A lot of bubble teams eating one another instead of allowing for separation. When every game and multiple teams are bubble busters, sooner or later, you’re a dog chasing the bubble.

What’ll happen is, leagues and teams will understand what’s happening and begin to game the system. I’m not sure what that’ll look like but it’ll happen.

Miami and the Bubble

Miami OH lost yesterday and that will shrink the bubble by 1 spot.  I really believe they are safe and are probably not even in the play in game.  I hope the committee doesn't so something stupid and leave them out.  With that loss, Akron moves into the bracket slotting as a 12 seed.  This does 2 things to the current bracket.  First South Florida moves up to an 11 seed and second, San Diego State falls out.  My last 4 teams in are now:

VCU, Texas , SMU, and Missouri

VCU still has games left but the other 3 are done.

On the outside of the bubble my first four out are:

Auburn, San Diego State, New Mexico, and Oklahoma

Auburn is done but the other 3 all have games left and could get an auto-bid.  It's not unthinkable that any 3 of those teams could make their conference final and sneak in as well.  I hope Auburn's 17-16 record is too much for the committee to swallow.

Outside of those teams I think the only other bid stealers out there are Seton Hall in the Big East, and any team not named VCU or Saint Louis in the A-10.  I suppose Nevada could also get the Auto-bid in the Mountain West too.  Their resume would be bubble worthy when the NCAA expands to 76 teams, sigh 

Day Game Action

As I mentioned in the earlier post, the bubble is getting very small and there aren’t a lot of games that will have an impact.  There are some so let’s highlight the day games.

Umass vs Miami OH – I really shouldn’t have to put this here, but the committee can and will be dumb.

Kentucky vs Missouri – Mizzou is one of my last 4 in.  If they lose and Auburn wins it might be bad for one of the Tigers.

Creighton vs Seton Hall – I took another look at the Pirates resume and I just don’t see it.  But, I already typed this out.

Auburn vs Tennessee – If we ignored actual wins and losses this team’s metrics puts them in easily.

UCF, Ohio State, and NC State appear to be safe but best not lose by 20+ this morning.

Thursday Update

The bubble is clearing up after yesterday’s games which saw only 2 teams currently out of the bracket win.  Those wins came from Auburn and Oklahoma while California, Indiana, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Boise State, and Oklahoma State all lost.  At this point I really believe those teams are eliminated.  That being said I’m not sure Auburn and Oklahoma have done enough to get in.

On the right side of the bubble, both NC State and UCF won while Texas and SMU lost.  NC State and UCF will move to lock status.  Texas and SMU appear to still be in the bracket but bid stealers are coming for them.  Also, any of the last remaining teams with an at-large chance may be able to leapfrog them.  Those teams include the Auburn and Oklahoma as well as New Mexico. 

Congrats to McNeese State, Lehigh, and Idaho on getting their auto-bids.  Conference Championships are done until Saturday

Night Bubble Games

Northwestern vs Indiana – The Hoosiers need this and more.  I have a feeling they lose this and are done.

BYU vs West Virginia – This would be another Q1 win for West Virginia and then suddenly their resume looks a whole lot better

California vs Florida State – California needs this win to get back into the conversation

Mississippi vs Texas – Texas is probably safe…probably

Oklahoma State vs TCU – TCU is in; Oklahoma State needs a lot of help.

South Carolina vs Oklahoma – The Sooners are suddenly on the radar.  Their resume doesn’t look any different than the rest of the usual suspects. 

Afternoon Bubble Games

SMU vs Louisville – SMU is an 11 seed and sitting right on the bye/play in game cut line.  A win and I think they are safe.  A loss and they have to sweat it out.

Cincinnati vs UCF – UCF is probably ok but it’s best not to tempt fate.  Cincinnati needs this one and more

Mississippi State vs Auburn – Auburn…still the first team out.  I hope they get blown out.

Pittsburgh vs NC State – NC State is closer to the bubble than most think and a loss here hurts their resume.  Win and they should be good.

Conference Tournaments - March 12, 2026 (And 14th)

MAC

#1 Seed -Miami OH

Miami runs the regular season and I don’t care if you are a SWAC team, if you go through the regular season without losing you deserve a bid.  Selfishly I want Akron to win the bid so we can have two capable MAC teams in the tournament.  Wouldn’t it be funny for both to make it and then Akron go to the Sweet Sixteen?  The pick is Akron

Ivy

#1 Seed -Yale

Just going to get this one out of the way.  Yale is a 12 seed and capable of an upset next week.  The pick is Yale.

Wednesday Morning Information

Tournament Bids:

Congrats to Hofstra, Wright State, LIU, Siena, and Gonzaga on punching their tickets to the Big Dance.  Three more bids go out today.

Southland - #1 SFA vs #2 McNeese St - both teams will give a 5 seed trouble.  I'm just hoping for a good game and an upset next week

Patriot - #2 Lehigh vs #4 Boston - time for a Lehigh Victory Platter.  Welcome to the play in game

Big Sky - #4 Montana vs #7 Idaho - I think we both predicted this conference tournament would be a mess.  Montana is a little better than Idaho but not by much

Bubble Winners:

SMU, Cincinnati, and Oklahoma State.  SMU might be a lock now but it's still close.  Cincinnati and Oklahoma State are still a couple wins from getting into the bracket.

Bubble Losers:

Stanford, Virginia Tech, and Santa Clara - The Broncos should be good but I've seen the committee make a lot of dumb decisions.  Put a fork in Stanford and Virginia Tech because they are done.

MACTION

You may not have heard but Miami (OH) is undefeated heading into this thing. Many people have bad opinions about this but this blog does not. This is a tournament team.

The MAC isn’t great. Only 5 teams have a plus net rating and the league slides in at 17 overall in KenPom. That’s behind the WAC, the Coastal and Big Sky to name a few. Is being undefeated in this league that impressive? 

The answer is a resounding yes. Ask yourself this, how many teams have gone undefeated this century in non-covid years? It’s 3 teams. That’s it. I don’t care the schedule you play. Winning is hard. Being undefeated at the end of the season is infinitely harder. Spare me analytics, spare me schedule talk. I have no doubt Miami wouldn’t go undefeated in the SEC. I also have no doubt the bubble teams across the country wouldn’t go undefeated in the MAC. 

As far as the tournament goes, Akron is the favorite as we get back to analytics. 30 spots better in KenPom and with only 1 loss in conference, this is also a very good team. In fact, they had the best offense and defense in the league this season. They also only lost by 3 at Miami earlier this year.

Fun stat: Akron is 7th in effective fg% and Miami is 6th. Miami shoots better from 2 and Akron shoots better from 3. Akron’s slightly weaker 2pt shooting % is the minuscule difference. Defenses are similar and tempo is basically the same. This could be an all-timer as a conference tourney final. Let’s hope for that. I’ll pick Akron and pull for both to cause some grief next week for some Power 4 teams.

Conference Tournaments - March 11, 2026

MEAC

#1 Seed – Howard

Howard is 100 points higher than then next team according to KenPom.  I think they roll to a play in game.  The pick is Howard

Mountain West

#1 Seed -Utah State

Utah State is the 1 seed but they have been up and down lately.  I think the Mountain West is going to go bonkers and send a team not even in the discussion as the auto-bid.  It could be Colorado State or Nevada but I’m going with Boise State.

Big East

#1 Seed -St. John’s

The Big East is way down this year and Marquette was able to knock UConn of the top of the league with a great game on Saturday morning.  St. John’s has been playing better outside of the 30 point defeat to Connecticut.  Do they get their revenge?  No, the pick is UConn.

Big West

#1 Seed -UC-Irvine

The Big West is dragged down a little by the bottom 3 teams but that allowed for a solid mix of teams at the top.  The 1 seed is Irvine, outlasting Hawaii by 1 game.  The middle of the pack can do some damage this tournament and UC San Diego won 6 of their last 7.  Getting hot at the right time makes a difference.  The pick is UCSD.

WAC

#1 Seed -Utah Valley

Man, how the WAC has fallen.  Utah Valley is the 1 seed but Cal Baptist is right there.  Cal Baptist has been a team of streak, Win 7 to start the season, lost 3 in a row, won 3 in a row, lost 3 in a row.  Followed that up with 9 wins, then 2 losses, then finished on a 4 game win streak.  I think that continues.  Cal Baptist is the pick

A-10

#1 Seed – Saint Louis

Saint Louis is just 3-3 in their last 6 while VCU has been surging.  George Mason just beat Saint Louis by 30 and George Washington has been solid all season.  Dayton, the preseason pick to win the conference finished 4^th behind St. Joseph’s.  I don’t think Saint Louis has enough to pull out a 3 game win streak.  St. Joseph’s 13-3 in their last 16, peaking at the right time.  St. Jospeh’s for the win and the A-10 is suddenly a 3 bid league.

SEC

#1 Seed -Florida

Florida is HOT.  They stay HOT.  The pick is Florida.

American

#1 Seed -South Florida

Tulsa finished 2^nd but lost to South Florida twice.  What’s the saying about beating a team 3 times in a season?  I don’t remember but Memphis is terrible. The pick is South Florida.

Tuesday Bubble Watch

Stanford - Currently my last team in but I'm not very confident in them.  They have Pitt early today and need this and tomorrow for sure.  Might even need a big upset on Thursday.

Cincinnati - Good resume numbers but overall not so hot.  2 win minimum and like Stanford, that may not be enough.

SMU - Some places have them out but I still think they are on e of the last 4 in.  No room for error and need to get a big win over Syracuse today.

Virginia Tech - Might need the auto-bid but the bubble is so bad we keep an eye on them.  A run to the ACC final would at least provide some Q1 wins.

Oklahoma State - I have them in my notes but I'm not sure they can get in without the bid.