Elite 8: Looking Back, Looking Ahead

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss, the losers lament.

1. Nebraska - It’s hard to be critical of Nebraska. First tournament wins ever and a Sweet 16 appearance. Magical season in Lincoln.

2. Texas - Hard to be critical of Texas, either, but Sean Miller comes up short in a big moment again. Not having the big man out there, especially against that Purdue team was certainly a choice. 

3. Houston - If we’ve said it once, we’ve said it a million times, the offense will let them down. Efficient through the course of the season, always susceptible in a single-elimination tournament. To only score 55 against that Illinois team is quite the achievement. No sugarcoating it, losing to them isn’t a shame, losing that way is.

4. Arkansas - Back-to-back Sweet 16’s, can Cal take the next step here? He’ll have to fix the defensive side of the the ball, a year after the offense was the issue. Been sometime since one of his teams has been championship good on both sides of the ball.

5. St. John’s - The Johnnies actually made buckets last night. It was their issue the last two seasons. Pitino needs better backcourts or their ceiling is quite limited. He was a bit cantankerous in the postgame about Duke bullying them after they got up 10. The bully hates being bullied.

6. Alabama - Roster issues again. Coach is responsible for how he builds his roster and with who. Another year, more drama. Plus, time to find an assistant to fix the defense.

7. Michigan State - Sparty hasn’t been to the Final 4 since 2019. They’ll be a trendy pick next year assuming Fears is back but we can retire the “Izzo is March” nonsense. Haven’t had a top-20 offense since Covid.

8. Iowa State - Offensive bugaboos caught up to them. Was better through the course of the season and not having Jefferson makes this hard to grade but 15-25 from the line and 22% from 3 sounds like how we’d expect them to get knocked out. Absolutely bullied by the Vols. Second weekend might be the ceiling in Ames.

Elite 8 Thoughts

Iowa-Illinois is such a classic Big Ten matchup. Old rivalry with a trip to the Final 4 on the line. Super cool matchup for fans of the real Big Ten, not the Frankenstein league it is.

Purdue-Arizona is about stopping the oafish Purdue team. This Purdue team is wholly unlikable and way more representative of the 21st century Big 18. Arizona has a lot of demons to slay tonight.

Duke-UConn is another classic matchup. They’ve played some memorable March games but it’s been a minute since they’ve met. Met 4 times between 90-04 in the tournament, splitting, with UConn winning on the final weekend twice and Duke winning twice on the second weekend. Basketball schools unapologetically meeting for a trip to the Final 4 the way it should be.

Michigan-Tennessee is the shoulder shrug matchup. The Vols can physically match Michigan, something the Wolverines really haven’t dealt with yet in the tourney but the Vols offense is not good. Completely predicated on second chance points, if they can get Mara in foul trouble and make it a slog, they can finally make a Final 4 but it’s sure feels like Michigan is playing with its food right now waiting for the main course.

Looking back, Looking ahead

I’d have been better off just saying what I’ve believed all year, the tournament would be chalk but that’s boring. Welp, while we had some great games, it was largely chalk.

Each region has 1-non protected seed. The East has St. John’s, a 5-seed who beat Kansas. The only people surprised by this are rabid Jayhawks fans. In the Midwest, Virginia lost to Tennessee, the 6-seed, who entered the tournament 16th in KenPom, which if we re-seeded that way, they’d have been a 4. Your outliers are out West where we have this year’s Cinderella, the school with the biggest athletic budget in the nation. In the South, Iowa’s win was shocking but they would’ve been a 6 using KenPom for seeding purposes and at one time, were top 20 in offense and defense this year. That game is worthy of a deep dive and I’ll be very curious about Iowa moving beyond 2026. They’ve basically switched bodies with Wisconsin and that will be fascinating to watch play out.

We’re probably a year away from making a definitive statement about the lack of upsets the last two years. I’ll caution anyone who makes too big a deal out of this year. Conference tournament upsets cost us a few really good regular season champs. Don’t know if those teams would have won but the seed lines from 12-15 would have looked much different and that matters! Whatever the case, expansion is a terrible idea.

Let’s now re-seed the remaining 16:

1. Michigan (1)

2. Arizona (2)

3. Duke (3)

4. Houston (4)

5. Illinois (6)

6. Iowa State (7)

7. Purdue (8)

8. Michigan State (9)

9. UConn (10)

10. Alabama (12)

11. Nebraska (13)

12. Tennessee (14)

13. St. John’s (16)

14. Arkansas (17)

15. Iowa (22)

16. Texas (31)

Teams Left With Defensive Concerns (Non Top-20)

Purdue, Illinois, Alabama, Arkansas, Iowa, Texas 

Teams Left With Offensive Concerns (Non Top-20)

Michigan State, UConn, Nebraska, Tennessee, St. John’s, Iowa 

Illinois and Michigan State are just outside looking in here. 

Illinois-Houston is a national title game in the Sweet 16 good and the best matchup. The worst matchup is Texas-Purdue.  The craziest matchup is Nebraska-Iowa.  The old school matchup is Duke-St. John’s. The best bowl game is Michigan-Alabama. Final 4 rematches of yore are Michigan State-UConn and Arkansas-Arizona. And then there is Iowa State-Tennessee 🤷🏼‍♂️

Final thought is about the weekend schedule and how the first two games of the day are in the same region. I understand the desire to get as many games into prime time and fill the whole day but I think staggering start times beginning at 1PM EST and 2PM EST in separate regions and having 2nd game tips in those regions at around 3 and 4PM EST would be ideal and repeat until 8PM EST. Tipping near 10PM EST is ridiculous, especially on Sunday. Realistically, the second games in each region won’t start on time anyway, so you’ll bleed well into the evening and maximize prime time. 

BRACKET ANALYSIS

Read this and make some cash.

No reseeding this year. I haven’t looked but I bet 68 out of 68 teams correctly picked by bracketologists was at an all-time high. And while there are quibbles about where teams were located and some seeding quibbles, I don’t have a lot of complaints.

A few bold predictions (Do I believe them? Maybe):

1. No 4 or 5 seeds lose in round 1. The 12’s and 13’s are historically bad this year and it’ll be chalky Thursday and Friday.

2. People keep saying Duke has the hardest path of the 1-seeds but neither UConn or Michigan State make the Sweet 16 alleviating some stress and while I have the 4 and 5 surviving, they aren’t real threats to Duke.

3. East sleeper is Northern Iowa. Yes, that’s a 12-seed but if there is a 12-seed that makes noise, it’s them.

4. The South is interesting in that Houston could have a home game against Florida in the regional final but it won’t matter as St. Mary’s knocks off the Cougars in round 2 and make the regional final.

5. Nebraska wins a tournament game and makes the Sweet 16. If they beat Florida in that round, St. Mary’s makes the Final 4. If Florida beats Nebraska, they make the Final 4.

6. The Midwest feels like the chaos region. Michigan loses in round 2 to either Georgia or SLU. Santa Clara shocks Iowa State.

7. Miami beats SMU and then beats Tennessee but loses to eventual Final 4 participant Virginia. Texas Tech makes the regional final without Toppin.

8. The West is maybe wild. Purdue loses in round 2. Way too much being made of the Big 18 Tournament. Trendy picks based on conference tournament runs are very boom or bust and I’m betting this is a bust. 

9. Arkansas/Wisconsin/High Point matchups yield a game where both teams hit 100. Seeing a lot of complaining about Wisconsin’s seed, location and tip time. Poor babies having to travel all the way to Portland and play at 10:50 local time and only having 4 days off. Hope they can handle such adversity. 🙄

10. Final 4 is Duke, Arizona, Florida and Virginia. Duke beats Arizona for the title 

Things that won’t surprise me:

1. All 1-seeds make the Final 4

2. I’m completely wrong on the 12 + 13 prediction and that is blown up completely by the end of play Thursday.

3. Big 18 and SEC lays an egg. Big 18 has a problem and that problem is the awful officiating within the league. It is arguably one of the biggest disservices to them when it comes to March. The officiating in Chicago last week was abhorrent. The SEC doesn’t have any elite teams outside Florida.

4. On the other end, the Big XIIIIII has half the Elite 8.

5. All 14-seeds make the 3-seeds sweat in round one and 2 of the 15-seeds take 2-seeds to the wire but ultimately, no upsets.

See y’all soon.

Final Bracket

1. Duke  vs  16. LeHigh/Prairie View A&M
1. Michigan  vs  16. Howard/LIU
1. Arizona  vs  16. Idaho
1. Florida  vs  16. Queens
2. Houston  vs  15. Kennesaw St.
2. Connecticut  vs  15. Furman
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. UMBC
2. Michigan St.  vs  15. Siena
3. Vanderbilt  vs  14. Tennessee St.
3. Illinois  vs  14. Wright St.
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. Penn
3. Purdue  vs  14. Troy
4. Nebraska  vs  13. North Dakota St.
4. Alabama  vs  13. Hawaii
4. St. John's  vs  13. Cal Baptist
4. Virginia  vs  13. Hofstra
5. Arkansas  vs  12. Northern Iowa
5. Texas Tech  vs  12. McNeese St.
5. Kansas  vs  12. High Point
5. Wisconsin  vs  12. Akron
6. Louisville  vs  11. SMU/Missouri
6. Tennessee  vs  11. Miami OH/Texas
6. BYU  vs  11. South Florida
6. Kentucky  vs  11. VCU
7. Miami Fl  vs  10. Santa Clara
7. North Carolina  vs  10. N.C. State
7. Saint Mary's  vs  10. UCF
7. UCLA  vs  10. Saint Louis
8. Clemson  vs  9. Texas A&M
8. Villanova  vs  9. Iowa
8. Utah St.  vs  9. TCU
8. Georgia  vs  9. Ohio St.

First Four Out - San Diego St.

First Four Out - Auburn

First Four Out - Oklahoma

First Four Out - New Mexico

Next Four Out - Dayton

Next Four Out - Stanford

Next Four Out - Indiana

Next Four Out - Cincinnati

Also Considered - West Virginia

Also Considered - Seton Hall

Also Considered - Virginia Tech

Also Considered - California

Selection Sunday

 The day of Selection is upon us.  There are 5 games left in the regular season and it appears only 1 viable bid stealer is still hanging around.  I'm looking at you Dayton.  Texas and SMU will be watching on tightly as they are the two most likely to be cut.  Should be a fun day of basketball.  Final bracket soon.

Bracketology

 1. Duke  vs  16. LeHigh/Southern
1. Michigan  vs  16. Howard/LIU
1. Arizona  vs  16. UMBC
1. Florida  vs  16. Queens
2. Houston  vs  15. Louisiana Tech
2. Connecticut  vs  15. Furman
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Tennessee St.
2. Illinois  vs  15. Siena
3. Nebraska  vs  14. Idaho
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. Wright St.
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. Troy
3. Purdue  vs  14. North Dakota St.
4. Alabama  vs  13. UC Irvine
4. Vanderbilt  vs  13. Utah Valley
4. Kansas  vs  13. Hofstra
4. Virginia  vs  13. Yale
5. Arkansas  vs  12. Northern Iowa
5. Texas Tech  vs  12. McNeese St.
5. Tennessee  vs  12. High Point
5. St. John's  vs  12. Akron
6. Louisville  vs  11. SMU/Missouri
6. Wisconsin  vs  11. VCU/Texas
6. BYU  vs  11. South Florida
6. Kentucky  vs  11. Miami OH
7. Villanova  vs  10. Santa Clara
7. North Carolina  vs  10. N.C. State
7. Saint Mary's  vs  10. UCF
7. UCLA  vs  10. Saint Louis
8. Clemson  vs  9. Texas A&M
8. Miami Fl  vs  9. Iowa
8. Utah St.  vs  9. TCU
8. Ohio St.  vs  9. Georgia

First Four Out - San Diego St.

First Four Out - Auburn

First Four Out - Oklahoma

First Four Out - New Mexico

Next Four Out - Seton Hall

Next Four Out - Stanford

Next Four Out - Indiana

Next Four Out - Cincinnati

Bids and More

 Lots of solid action yesterday as the conference tournaments wind down.  11 Bids go out today and there are a lot of 1 vs 2 seeds.  It should make for some great action later tonight.  The day starts out this morning with UMBC vs Vermont and ends with Cal Baptist vs Utah Valley.  It will be a great day to sit, relax, and watch some basketball.

Those who won't be relaxing are SMU, Texas, and Missouri.  I have all 3 team in right now but there are some bid stealers still alive.  The biggest one today is San Diego State, who is my first team out.  They play Utah State in the Mountain West Championship and a win there will push out a team.  Right now I'm leaning Texas but it's worth a second or third look.

Other bid stealers out there are from the A-10 and SEC. Mississippi is streaking and would need to beat Arkansas today and probably Florida tomorrow.  Not impossible but not likely either.  The A-10 has St. Joseph's vs VCU and Dayton vs Saint Louis.  Dayton or St. Joe's could take a spot up with 2 wins.

A new Bracket will come out later today but until then, enjoy the games

The Historically Weak Bubble

Brian knows better than me, but barring bid thievery in the A-10, AAC and Mountain West, the bubble looks like it has played itself out. Is this the weakest bubble yet?

We tend to hear that yearly, so I typically dismiss it to recency bias but I saw something last week that piqued my interest. An argument was made that the use of the portal hasn’t just hurt mid-majors but also has hurt power conference teams. The argument is, the talent has been accumulated more tightly on teams and the bubble teams are simply worse because the teams are worse. Makes sense when you say it out loud.

In 2016, the top ranked KenPom team was Villanova at +32.01.  25th was Vandy at +18.76, a difference of 13.25. This year, Duke is +39.26 and Iowa is +22.40, a difference of 16.86. Take it out further to 50 and it’s 17.86 vs. 23.59. The gap between the top teams and the chasers in the middle is widening. 

Now, this is cherry-picking on my part just doing a 10-year gap. It’s hardly conclusive but does underly the idea of a weaker bubble. It also illustrates how teams are adapting to the analytics era of the sport but that’s a different topic. Teams are playing more efficiently but the talent gap is widening from the top down.

There’s also an argument to be made about bloated conferences as well. Uneven conference schedules doesn’t help. Without true round robins, I believe the conferences are cannibalizing one another in some instances. The SEC is a good example this year. When you have one alpha, Florida, and the rest are good but not great, you get what you get this year. A lot of bubble teams eating one another instead of allowing for separation. When every game and multiple teams are bubble busters, sooner or later, you’re a dog chasing the bubble.

What’ll happen is, leagues and teams will understand what’s happening and begin to game the system. I’m not sure what that’ll look like but it’ll happen.

Miami and the Bubble

Miami OH lost yesterday and that will shrink the bubble by 1 spot.  I really believe they are safe and are probably not even in the play in game.  I hope the committee doesn't so something stupid and leave them out.  With that loss, Akron moves into the bracket slotting as a 12 seed.  This does 2 things to the current bracket.  First South Florida moves up to an 11 seed and second, San Diego State falls out.  My last 4 teams in are now:

VCU, Texas , SMU, and Missouri

VCU still has games left but the other 3 are done.

On the outside of the bubble my first four out are:

Auburn, San Diego State, New Mexico, and Oklahoma

Auburn is done but the other 3 all have games left and could get an auto-bid.  It's not unthinkable that any 3 of those teams could make their conference final and sneak in as well.  I hope Auburn's 17-16 record is too much for the committee to swallow.

Outside of those teams I think the only other bid stealers out there are Seton Hall in the Big East, and any team not named VCU or Saint Louis in the A-10.  I suppose Nevada could also get the Auto-bid in the Mountain West too.  Their resume would be bubble worthy when the NCAA expands to 76 teams, sigh 

Day Game Action

As I mentioned in the earlier post, the bubble is getting very small and there aren’t a lot of games that will have an impact.  There are some so let’s highlight the day games.

Umass vs Miami OH – I really shouldn’t have to put this here, but the committee can and will be dumb.

Kentucky vs Missouri – Mizzou is one of my last 4 in.  If they lose and Auburn wins it might be bad for one of the Tigers.

Creighton vs Seton Hall – I took another look at the Pirates resume and I just don’t see it.  But, I already typed this out.

Auburn vs Tennessee – If we ignored actual wins and losses this team’s metrics puts them in easily.

UCF, Ohio State, and NC State appear to be safe but best not lose by 20+ this morning.

Thursday Update

The bubble is clearing up after yesterday’s games which saw only 2 teams currently out of the bracket win.  Those wins came from Auburn and Oklahoma while California, Indiana, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Boise State, and Oklahoma State all lost.  At this point I really believe those teams are eliminated.  That being said I’m not sure Auburn and Oklahoma have done enough to get in.

On the right side of the bubble, both NC State and UCF won while Texas and SMU lost.  NC State and UCF will move to lock status.  Texas and SMU appear to still be in the bracket but bid stealers are coming for them.  Also, any of the last remaining teams with an at-large chance may be able to leapfrog them.  Those teams include the Auburn and Oklahoma as well as New Mexico. 

Congrats to McNeese State, Lehigh, and Idaho on getting their auto-bids.  Conference Championships are done until Saturday

Night Bubble Games

Northwestern vs Indiana – The Hoosiers need this and more.  I have a feeling they lose this and are done.

BYU vs West Virginia – This would be another Q1 win for West Virginia and then suddenly their resume looks a whole lot better

California vs Florida State – California needs this win to get back into the conversation

Mississippi vs Texas – Texas is probably safe…probably

Oklahoma State vs TCU – TCU is in; Oklahoma State needs a lot of help.

South Carolina vs Oklahoma – The Sooners are suddenly on the radar.  Their resume doesn’t look any different than the rest of the usual suspects. 

Afternoon Bubble Games

SMU vs Louisville – SMU is an 11 seed and sitting right on the bye/play in game cut line.  A win and I think they are safe.  A loss and they have to sweat it out.

Cincinnati vs UCF – UCF is probably ok but it’s best not to tempt fate.  Cincinnati needs this one and more

Mississippi State vs Auburn – Auburn…still the first team out.  I hope they get blown out.

Pittsburgh vs NC State – NC State is closer to the bubble than most think and a loss here hurts their resume.  Win and they should be good.

Conference Tournaments - March 12, 2026 (And 14th)

MAC

#1 Seed -Miami OH

Miami runs the regular season and I don’t care if you are a SWAC team, if you go through the regular season without losing you deserve a bid.  Selfishly I want Akron to win the bid so we can have two capable MAC teams in the tournament.  Wouldn’t it be funny for both to make it and then Akron go to the Sweet Sixteen?  The pick is Akron

Ivy

#1 Seed -Yale

Just going to get this one out of the way.  Yale is a 12 seed and capable of an upset next week.  The pick is Yale.

Wednesday Morning Information

Tournament Bids:

Congrats to Hofstra, Wright State, LIU, Siena, and Gonzaga on punching their tickets to the Big Dance.  Three more bids go out today.

Southland - #1 SFA vs #2 McNeese St - both teams will give a 5 seed trouble.  I'm just hoping for a good game and an upset next week

Patriot - #2 Lehigh vs #4 Boston - time for a Lehigh Victory Platter.  Welcome to the play in game

Big Sky - #4 Montana vs #7 Idaho - I think we both predicted this conference tournament would be a mess.  Montana is a little better than Idaho but not by much

Bubble Winners:

SMU, Cincinnati, and Oklahoma State.  SMU might be a lock now but it's still close.  Cincinnati and Oklahoma State are still a couple wins from getting into the bracket.

Bubble Losers:

Stanford, Virginia Tech, and Santa Clara - The Broncos should be good but I've seen the committee make a lot of dumb decisions.  Put a fork in Stanford and Virginia Tech because they are done.

MACTION

You may not have heard but Miami (OH) is undefeated heading into this thing. Many people have bad opinions about this but this blog does not. This is a tournament team.

The MAC isn’t great. Only 5 teams have a plus net rating and the league slides in at 17 overall in KenPom. That’s behind the WAC, the Coastal and Big Sky to name a few. Is being undefeated in this league that impressive? 

The answer is a resounding yes. Ask yourself this, how many teams have gone undefeated this century in non-covid years? It’s 3 teams. That’s it. I don’t care the schedule you play. Winning is hard. Being undefeated at the end of the season is infinitely harder. Spare me analytics, spare me schedule talk. I have no doubt Miami wouldn’t go undefeated in the SEC. I also have no doubt the bubble teams across the country wouldn’t go undefeated in the MAC. 

As far as the tournament goes, Akron is the favorite as we get back to analytics. 30 spots better in KenPom and with only 1 loss in conference, this is also a very good team. In fact, they had the best offense and defense in the league this season. They also only lost by 3 at Miami earlier this year.

Fun stat: Akron is 7th in effective fg% and Miami is 6th. Miami shoots better from 2 and Akron shoots better from 3. Akron’s slightly weaker 2pt shooting % is the minuscule difference. Defenses are similar and tempo is basically the same. This could be an all-timer as a conference tourney final. Let’s hope for that. I’ll pick Akron and pull for both to cause some grief next week for some Power 4 teams.

Conference Tournaments - March 11, 2026

MEAC

#1 Seed – Howard

Howard is 100 points higher than then next team according to KenPom.  I think they roll to a play in game.  The pick is Howard

Mountain West

#1 Seed -Utah State

Utah State is the 1 seed but they have been up and down lately.  I think the Mountain West is going to go bonkers and send a team not even in the discussion as the auto-bid.  It could be Colorado State or Nevada but I’m going with Boise State.

Big East

#1 Seed -St. John’s

The Big East is way down this year and Marquette was able to knock UConn of the top of the league with a great game on Saturday morning.  St. John’s has been playing better outside of the 30 point defeat to Connecticut.  Do they get their revenge?  No, the pick is UConn.

Big West

#1 Seed -UC-Irvine

The Big West is dragged down a little by the bottom 3 teams but that allowed for a solid mix of teams at the top.  The 1 seed is Irvine, outlasting Hawaii by 1 game.  The middle of the pack can do some damage this tournament and UC San Diego won 6 of their last 7.  Getting hot at the right time makes a difference.  The pick is UCSD.

WAC

#1 Seed -Utah Valley

Man, how the WAC has fallen.  Utah Valley is the 1 seed but Cal Baptist is right there.  Cal Baptist has been a team of streak, Win 7 to start the season, lost 3 in a row, won 3 in a row, lost 3 in a row.  Followed that up with 9 wins, then 2 losses, then finished on a 4 game win streak.  I think that continues.  Cal Baptist is the pick

A-10

#1 Seed – Saint Louis

Saint Louis is just 3-3 in their last 6 while VCU has been surging.  George Mason just beat Saint Louis by 30 and George Washington has been solid all season.  Dayton, the preseason pick to win the conference finished 4^th behind St. Joseph’s.  I don’t think Saint Louis has enough to pull out a 3 game win streak.  St. Joseph’s 13-3 in their last 16, peaking at the right time.  St. Jospeh’s for the win and the A-10 is suddenly a 3 bid league.

SEC

#1 Seed -Florida

Florida is HOT.  They stay HOT.  The pick is Florida.

American

#1 Seed -South Florida

Tulsa finished 2^nd but lost to South Florida twice.  What’s the saying about beating a team 3 times in a season?  I don’t remember but Memphis is terrible. The pick is South Florida.

Tuesday Bubble Watch

Stanford - Currently my last team in but I'm not very confident in them.  They have Pitt early today and need this and tomorrow for sure.  Might even need a big upset on Thursday.

Cincinnati - Good resume numbers but overall not so hot.  2 win minimum and like Stanford, that may not be enough.

SMU - Some places have them out but I still think they are on e of the last 4 in.  No room for error and need to get a big win over Syracuse today.

Virginia Tech - Might need the auto-bid but the bubble is so bad we keep an eye on them.  A run to the ACC final would at least provide some Q1 wins.

Oklahoma State - I have them in my notes but I'm not sure they can get in without the bid.  

Tuesday Morning Notes

Congrats to Troy and Furman on Picking up Bids last night.  5 (4) bids go out tonight.

Coastal - #3 Hofstra vs #4 Monmouth - Kurly pegged Hofstra to start the tournament; I think he's right

Horizon - #1 Wright State vs #3 Detroit - Wright State finishes the job and into a 15 seed.

MAAC - #1 Merrimack vs #3 Siena - this is setting up nicely for Gerry McNamara ascend to the Syracuse job

WCC - #1 Gonzaga vs #3 Santa Clara - Santa Clara should be a lock now.  Gonzaga wins this on the way out the WCC door.

NEC - Long Island already gets the bid since Mercyhurst isn't eligible. 

Tournament Pot Party

AAC-

It’s a league. It’s actually worse in KenPom than the Valley. Woof. Anyway, they’re playing this in Birmingham. It’s a 1-bid league. USF won the regular season title and are 52 in KenPom. T-2 was Tulsa and Wichita State. Tulsa is 58 and the Shockers are 88 in KenPom.

South Florida is the pick. They lost 3 league games by a combined 5 points and 2 of them in overtime. They roll in on a 9-game win streak as well.

A-10

I think this is a 2-bid league. SLU and VCU are the 2-bids as they shared the regular season title. If that’s the case, this is a bid thief league.

It’s pretty well-balanced in the middle and one of them could certainly win this. In fact, I’ll pick Dayton to thieve a bid just to make it interesting on Sunday.

Big East

3-bid league. Could be a bid thief league, though. Pretty muddled from 4-11 and I’m not sure how you can have a lot of faith in the top-3.

I’ll pick UConn to win it but won’t be surprised if something dumb happens here.

Big West

Playing this in Henderson, NV. As always, this is a solid mid-major who can send a team to the dance and make someone sweat. UC-Irvine won the league and is 106 in KenPom.

UC-San Diego is 113, Hawaii is 115 and UC-Santa Barbara is 126 in KenPom. They all own wins over Irvine. Irvine has the 5th best effective fg% defense in the nation. Kyle Evans is a great shot blocker. UCSB is 21st in 3-point shooting nationally. I say it’s one of these 2 but I’ll take Irvine cuz I have to make a pick.

MEAC

Play-in league. Howard won the league and is 202 in KenPom. No one else is top-300. It’s Howard and head coach Kenny Blakeney who fits the March Duke motif.

Mountain West

Kind of a bittersweet week in Vegas for the Mountain West. The Frankenstein Pac-12 pilfers a chunk of this league beginning next year. It’ll be ok, but adding UTEP, Northern Illinois and North Dakota State doesn’t really move the needle. NDSU will be fine but doesn’t cover the losses.

Focusing on this season, Utah State won the regular season title and are 35th in KenPom. They should be a lock. San Diego State and New Mexico are bubbly and need a big week. I think both are out barring a deep run.

This is thievery territory. Utah State is the best team but not a lock. I’ll pick New Mexico to steal a bid here.

SEC

Auburn is somehow on the bubble and need a big week. Need Mississippi State to treat them like Kristi Noem treats dogs. Think that covers the bubble here.

The pick is Florida. Every other team is squarely meh.

WAC

7 lousy teams in this league!  Well, not lousy teams, but only 7 lousy teams! Utah Valley won the league and is 90th in KenPom. Cal Baptist finished 2nd and is 112th in KenPom.

Utah Valley is the pick because no one wants to be around baptists.

Conference Tournaments - March 10, 2026

Big 12

#1 Seed – Arizona

The Wildcats are the 1 seed but there are land minds all through the bracket.  There are 3-4 Final Four contenders here and any team that gets this auto-bid will have pumped up their resume.  It’s hard to see Arizona lose but I’m picturing Iowa State getting hot or Houston getting there.  The pick for now is the Cougars

ACC

#1 Seed – Duke

The injury bug has finally got to Duke and it’s more than likely they are without 2 starters for the Acc Tournament.  They have more than enough firepower to win but the question is do you really want to have the other players average 36 minutes a game.  Darren Harris is suddenly very important.  No other team really scares me, so the pick remains Duke.

Conference USA

#1 Seed – Liberty

Liberty takes the one seed but has looked subpar the past couple weeks, losing 3 of their last 5.  According to KenPom Sam Houston State is more likely to win this but 5 teams sit around 50 points lower.  Middle Tennessee State has won their last 5 and hit the tournament hot.  The Pick is Middle Tennessee State.

Big 18

#1 Seed – Michigan

I would of liked to see Michigan State win on Sunday just so more people pick them to go to the Final Four.  That team is garbage and Jeremy Fears is dirtier than Grayson Allen.  He’s kicked a guy in the nuts 3 or 4 times this season, if not just in the 2026 calendar year.  I think Wisconsin and Illinois can push Michigan, but I don’t see Michigan ending with a loss here.  The pick is Michigan

Monday Bracketology

1. Duke  vs  16. LeHigh/Bethune Cookman
1. Michigan  vs  16. UMBC/Howard
1. Arizona  vs  16. LIU
1. Florida  vs  16. Queens
2. Houston  vs  15. Tennessee St.
2. Illinois  vs  15. Wright St.
2. Michigan St.  vs  15. Merrimack
2. Connecticut  vs  15. East Tennessee St.
3. Nebraska  vs  14. Portland St.
3. Iowa St.  vs  14. Troy
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Alabama  vs  14. UC Irvine
4. Purdue  vs  13. Utah Valley
4. Kansas  vs  13. Hofstra
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Liberty
4. Virginia  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. Arkansas  vs  12. Northern Iowa
5. Vanderbilt  vs  12. Yale
5. North Carolina  vs  12. High Point
5. Louisville  vs  12. South Florida
6. St. John's  vs  11. VCU/Stanford
6. Wisconsin  vs  11. SMU/Santa Clara
6. Kentucky  vs  11. Texas
6. Tennessee  vs  11. N.C. State
7. Villanova  vs  10. Missouri
7. BYU  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Saint Mary's  vs  10. UCF
7. Georgia  vs  10. Ohio St.
8. Clemson  vs  9. Texas A&M
8. Miami Fl  vs  9. Iowa
8. Utah St.  vs  9. TCU
8. UCLA  vs  9. Saint Louis

First Four Out - Auburn

First Four Out - San Diego St.

First Four Out - New Mexico

First Four Out - Oklahoma

Next Four Out - California

Next Four Out - Indiana

Next Four Out - Virginia Tech

Next Four Out - West Virginia

Also Considered - Cincinnati

Also Considered - Boise St.

Also Considered - Oklahoma St.

Also Considered - Seton Hall

Quick Monday Thoughts

Two bids go out tonight and one Conference kicks off it's tournament.

Southern:

#6 Furman vs #1 ETSU - ETSU survived a scare this weekend but are ready to grab a 14 seed should they get the job done tonight

Sun Belt

#10 Georgia Southern vs #1 Troy - I bet this is going to be a good game and not a normal 1 vs 10.  I'm calling for the upset.

SWAC

#1 Seed - Bethune Cookman

BC is the top seed and even if they win all games by a million they are a 16 seed.  They at least have a top 20 NCSOS.  That might be enough to keep them out of the play-in games.  The Pick is Bethune Cookman.

Money Grabbers and CUSA

ACC-

ACC has probably seen its bubbles burst? VA Tech lost an opportunity against UVA. Stanford beat NC State, maybe moving up the bubble? Get to the semifinals and we’ll talk.

The pick is Duke unless they’re bored and then I’ll pick Miami

Big XIIIIII

Bubbles are Ok State and Cincinnati who both lost Saturday. Cincinnati and UCF likely play on Wednesday. Big game. Tech and ISU could use a good week.

The pick is Arizona

Big 18

Wisconsin is elevating, Illinois and Purdue are sinking. Bracket isn’t set yet because the league is arrogant and needs as much TV time as possible all to their own. I hate this league so much. Go independent, Blue.

The pick is Wisconsin

CUSA

Finally, a tournament that really means something. Tournament is held in Huntsville and Liberty in the regular season champion. However, they’ve lost 3 of 5. Sam Houston St. finished 2nd and is 8 spots better in KenPom.

Sam Houston is 14th in the nation in 3-pt shooting while Liberty is 5th. Liberty just beat them to close the regular season.

Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee and Louisiana Tech all tied for 3rd. Tech is the best defense in the league but brutal on offense. They play Middle Tennessee in the quarters with the winner getting Liberty. 

I can’t pick Liberty, a disgraceful university, so I’ll take Sam Houston State but pulling for Louisiana Tech

SOUTHLAND SWACS

Southland-

From Lake Charles, the Southland begins their conference tournament on Sunday. And I begin my golf season, so me and The Southland are best friends in March.

Stephen F. Austin won the regular season title, going 20-2. They get a bye to the semifinals like 2nd place finisher, McNeese State. McNeese is 67 in KenPom and SFA is 86. They split in the regular season with each game being close. McNeese has won 8 straight games.

Those two are prohibitive favorites. UT-Rio Grande Valley finished 3rd and are 125th in KenPom. Chorpus-Christi, my niece’s school finished 4th and are 179th in KenPom. The campus is on an island and she gets to go fishing daily. I’m jealous.

The pick is McNeese.

SWAC-

Play-in tournament for the play-in. The SWAC hosts their tournament in Atlanta. The league was actually much better this year than most. The league plays second fastest of any league in the country.

Bethune-Cookman won the league behind Reggie Theus. They set the tone early by taking Auburn to overtime to start the year to expose nepo baby Steven Pearl. They’re the only team with a winning record outside Alabama A&M but are 60 spots better in KenPom and swept them in the regular season. They’re the pick.

First Bid and More

The Ohio Valley Conference Championship is tonight with #1 Tennessee State playing #2 Morehead State.

The first bid is upon us.

Four more bids will go out tomorrow, the Big South, Missouri Valley, A-Sun, and Summit.

As for the rest of the action, the biggest loser was Belmont, who lost to 9 seeded Drake.  A good season ruined by 40 bad minutes of basketball.  They don't have any high profile wins but their metrics aren't that far off from most of the bubble teams.  They can't get in and that's a bummer.  Bradley slides in as the current representative for the Missouri Valley.

Seton Hall lost which all but eliminates them from the Bubble Watch.  West Virginia and San Diego State hang on and suddenly we need to look into UCF further to see how bad the metrics are after a couple of losses.

Last, Miami OH finished undefeated in the regular season and I think they are a lock no matter what they do in the conference tournament.

Bubble Watch

VCU at Dayton - VCU has one of my last bids and needs to keep winning

San Diego State vs UNLV - The Aztecs are one of the First Four out.  A win and a VCU loss would be nice for them.

St. John's at Seton Hall - Seton Hall needs some big wins and just one won't do.  This is 100% necessary

UCF at West Virginia - UCF is still OK but a win leaves them as a lock.  West Virginia is technically still alive.

Miami OH at Ohio - I don't think Miami OH is on the bubble but win this and there's no question.

Friday Bracketology

 1. Duke  vs  16. Bethune Cookman/Howard
1. Michigan  vs  16. UMBC/Tennessee St.
1. Arizona  vs  16. LIU
1. Connecticut  vs  16. Central Arkansas
2. Houston  vs  15. Wright St.
2. Florida  vs  15. East Tennessee St.
2. Michigan St.  vs  15. Merrimack
2. Illinois  vs  15. Portland St.
3. Nebraska  vs  14. Troy
3. Iowa St.  vs  14. Navy
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Purdue  vs  14. Hawaii
4. Alabama  vs  13. Cal Baptist
4. Kansas  vs  13. UNC Wilmington
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Liberty
4. North Carolina  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. Virginia  vs  12. High Point
5. Arkansas  vs  12. Yale
5. Tennessee  vs  12. Belmont
5. Vanderbilt  vs  12. South Florida
6. St. John's  vs  11. Santa Clara/New Mexico
6. Louisville  vs  11. Ohio St./VCU
6. Wisconsin  vs  11. Texas
6. Kentucky  vs  11. Texas A&M
7. Villanova  vs  10. SMU
7. BYU  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Saint Mary's  vs  10. TCU
7. Miami Fl  vs  10. N.C. State
8. Clemson  vs  9. Missouri
8. Saint Louis  vs  9. UCLA
8. Georgia  vs  9. UCF
8. Utah St.  vs  9. Iowa

First Four Out - Auburn

First Four Out - San Diego St.

First Four Out - California

First Four Out - Virginia Tech

Next Four Out - Indiana

Next Four Out - Seton Hall

Next Four Out - USC

Next Four Out - Oklahoma St.

Also Considered - Cincinnati

Also Considered - Stanford

Also Considered - Tulsa

Also Considered - West Virginia

Conference Tournaments - March 7, 2026 and March 8, 20026

 America East

#1 Seed – UMBC

The team that brought me so much joy years ago.  The game where they beat Virginia is one of those games that I wish I could go back and watch from start to finish without knowing the outcome.  Only UMBC and Vermont are above 300 in KenPom.  This is a play-in game no matter who wins.  Let’s pick NJIT.

Big Sky

#1 Seed – Portland State

On the flip side of the KenPom numbers the Big Sky has 7 teams above 200.  That’s remarkable in comparison to the America East.  Portland State won the conference by 1 game but 5 more teams are only 2 games behind that.  This tournament is wide open, and I would guess Montana State, while 2^nd, is probably the favorite.  Let’s get crazy here, the pick is 4 seeded Northern Colorado.

Southland

#1 Seed – Stephen F. Austin

This was supposed to be McNeese State but Will Wade left and took his dirty grimy hands to North Carolina State where he will fail year after year until he’s fired since he’s only a good coach when he can cheat.  Well, that’s enough on that tangent.  SFA won the conference but I’m willing to say McNeese is the favorite.  Each has 1 game and then they will meet in the Finals.  The pick in McNeese St.

AMEAST BIG SKY

America East-

The America East tips Saturday. All games are on campus. UMBC won the league at 14-2 and is 200 in KenPom after starting the year at 296.

Perennial bracket buster favorite, Vermont, finished 2nd at 12-4 in league. They own 1 of 2 wins over Vermont and are 238 in KenPom. All other teams are sub-300. UMBC is the pick. 

Big Sky-

Live from Boise, the Big Sky also tips Saturday. This league is much more fun than the AmEast. They actually have 4 teams with positive net ratings. Portland State won the league at 13-5 but is 3rd best in KenPom in the league and has lost 3 of 4.

Montana State finished 2nd and is 131st in KenPom. They own a win over St. Thomas and took Utah State to overtime. But, they also lost to a bad Oral Bob team.

Northern Colorado is in a logjam tying for 4th but has the second best KenPom number at 138. Northern Colorado beat regular Colorado in non-con.

Montana State is the most well-balanced of the 3 and are my pick. Do be mindful of Eastern Washington who have won 8 of 9 after starting the year at 5-17. Want to take a flyer on a losing team to make the dance, this might be your squad.

Conference Tournaments - March 6, 2026

Southern

#1 Seed – East Tennessee State

ETSU are the clear number 1 team here but the next 5 teams are either 11-7 or 10-8 in the conference.  ETSU can get a 15 seed but anybody else is probably a non-play in game 16 seed.  Wofford, Mercer, and Furman have also all had a bit of success in the tournament so the winner is live to at least put up a fight.  My pick is still ETSU.

Coastal

#1 Seed – UNC-Wilmington

The Seahwaks are the top seed but this is a fairly open tournament.  Kurly has the Pride winning it all and I cn see that happening.  The top 5 all have a chance and depending on who gets it will determine if they are a 13 or 14 seed.  I’d love to pick William and Mary but ultimately I think Charleston get it done.  The pick is Charleston

Bubble Updates

Winners:

Indiana, California, Ohio State, and Stanford

Ohio State remains in the bracket and may be moving out of the play in game.  The are getting hot at the right time.  Indiana and California are looking to move back in should somebody lose.  Hint:  New Mexico lost.  Stanford remains way outside but they have a pulse.

Losers:

SMU, Texas, New Mexico, and USC

SMU and Texas are 95% safe but a loss still doesn't look good.  New Mexico's loss gives an opening to Indiana or California.  I haven't updated the metrics yet but it's going to be close.  USC is done.

Bubble Tonight:

Nothing, Zip, Zylch, Nada.  The negative side to getting good Friday night games during the season is the NCAA gave Thursday night to the women.  Meh

CAA SoCon

CAA-

The Coastal, sigh, tips off Friday in D.C. UNC-Wilmington are the regular season champs, going 15-3 in league play and 26-5 overall. Head coach Takayo Siddle will be a hot name during the upcoming coaching cycle. They’re 99th in KenPom overall.

Charleston finished 2nd behind Chris Mack. The Cougars are 142nd in KenPom. 3rd place Hofstra is 92nd in KenPom, lead by Speedy Claxton.

The winner should be Hofstra or UNCW. UNCW could get a 12-13 seed and would be a good pick to pull off an upset. Hofstra isn’t a bad club and own wins over Pitt and Syracuse. They’ve won 8 of 9 but a 5-game losing streak to close January hurts the overall resume. I’ll pick UNCW but Hofstra has my attention. 

SoCon-

What to make of the SoCon as the tourney tips from Asheville on Friday. East Tennessee State won the regular season title and is 141st in KenPom. Mercer finished tied 2nd and is 182nd. Samford tied them and is 208.

Usual contenders, Wofford and Furman aren’t the teams of the last decade. Wofford is 248 in KenPom while Furman is 203. UNC-Greensboro is 304 this year. Down year for the league.

I’ll take ETSU because Mercer doesn’t play any defense but I won’t be stunned to see some chicanery here.

Bubble Tonight

 

Bubble In:

Ohio State at Penn State – Penn State can be feisty to Ohio State better watch themselves on the road

Colorado State at New Mexico – Currently in the play in game New Mexico needs every win available.

Bubble Out:

Minnesota at Indiana -  Some brackets actually have Indiana in.  They are in my next 4 out but could get there

California at Georgia Tech – Cal just fell out of the bracket but have the metrics to get back in.  Can’t afford a loss

USC at Washington – If you want to roll with Chad Baker -Mazara you get what you deserve and that’s not a bid

Stanford at Notre Dame – shockingly Stanford is still hanging around

Tuesday Night Winners and Losers

Winners:

Texas A&M - as predicted Kentucky lays an egg and the Aggies cruise to a victory

TCU - they are lock with the win at Texas Tech

VCU - remains in the hunt for an at-large bid

Auburn, Seton Hall, Oklahoma State, and Cincinnati - all with wins to keep hope alive.

 

Losers:

San Diego St. - Boise State takes them out and it's time to double check their resume

West Virginia - put a fork in them

Clemson - the free fall continues

Kansas and BYU - I guess having the top 2 NBA prospects isn't enough

Conference Tournaments - March 5, 2026

 Missouri Valley

#1 Seed – Belmont

Belmont is one Quad win away from being an actual At-Large candidate.  They were the best resume in the Blind Resume post.  Resume metrics have them ahead of teams like Texas A&M and San Diego State.  Predictive doesn’t like them as much.  They are close but I don’t think they will get an at-large if they lose during Arch Madness.  Northern Iowa is going to be their toughest test but I hope Belmont wins and takes a 5 seed down.  The pick is Belmont.

Metro Atlantic

#1 Seed – Merrimack

Merrimack is the only team above 200 in KenPom and is the only team from this conference that would be as high as a 15 seed.  A couple teams can push Merrimack and I’m going with Siena to get it done.  Gerry McNamara gets it done, wins a play in game as a 16 seed, then takes the Syracuse job.  The pick is Siena

West Coast

#1 Seed – Gonzaga

Another bracket that looks like a flying V.  Gonzaga and St. Mary’s get byes to the semi-finals.  I’d love to see another game between the these teams but Santa Clara is creeping around.  I want 3 West Coast teams in the Tournament.  The pick:  Santa Clara.

MAAC, Valley and WCC

MAAC - 

All of my favorite mid-majors start tourney play on Thursday. First up, the MAAC who will be in Atlantic City. 

Only one team is top-200 in KenPom, Merrimack. They still have a negative AdjEM but won the league going 17-3. Want a crazy stat? Opponents have an offensive rebounding % of 40%.

There are 7 teams beside Merrimack at .500 or better in league. Feels like a wide open tourney. So, give me Siena and make that Gerry McNamara to Syracuse talk heat up.

Arch Madness

One of the best tournaments of the season happens in St. Louis where nothing good rarely happens. It’s been a better year in the Valley as mentioned in our Belmont piece. Of course, Belmont immediately lost after I wrote that, but they’re still 55th in KenPom and capable of shooting someone out of the Big Dance.

Bradley finished 2nd and Brian Wardle will probably have some opportunities to move up the food chain. Still, his Braves were 7th best in KenPom in the league. UNI who finished 6th is 80th in KenPom. Illinois State is 96th, UIC is 109 and Murray State is 117. Heck, Southern Illinois who finished .500 in the league is 114.

Should be a good show. I’ll pick UNI to pull the upset. I’d like to see Belmont but they’ve made me mad in the past by not busting brackets.

WCC

The last trip to Vegas as WCC members for the Zags. Kind of sad and everyone will want to see them lose. Do they pull a Syracuse who won their last trip to MSG or do the Zags bow out losers? 

St. Mary’s is my pick. The Gaels are the best FT shooting team in the nation and are 9th best from 3. They rebound both sides of the glass and don’t foul. They’re also a young team. 337th in experience and they still went 27-4. I’ve been burned by them before but I might be mentally putting them into the Sweet 16 as of today. They have 2 7’ guys getting decent minutes. 

Also, as discussed last week, Santa Clara is on bubble watch. Have to get to the title game. The Sendek Experience continues to run amok.

Tuesday Bubble Action

Bubble In:

TCU at Texas Tech

TCU is in my last bye spot and a loss won't drop them out.  A win and they might be a lock.

Kentucky at Texas A&M

A&M has fallen all the way to the play-in games.  Best not to lose tonight.  I wonder which Kentucky team shows up?  I guess it will be bad Kentucky and A&M wins by 17

San Diego St at Boise St

This is 95% about San Diego St but a little about Boise State as well.  The Aztecs are my last team in and cannot afford a loss. Boise State remains in the Also Considered Garbage Bucket.

Bubble Out:

George Mason at VCU

VCU suddenly has a real shot but they cannot afford to lose until probably the A-10 championship game.  This won't be easy tonight but a loss ends their hopes.

Seton Hall at Xavier

The Hall missed a golden opportunity against Connecticut and now have little room for error.  Their 2 Q1 wins leave them in the discussion for now.

West Virginia at Kansas State

The Mountaineers have the best Q1 record of teams currently out of the bracket at 5-7 but they have a Q3 loss.  Their Q2 record of 1-4 isn't great either.  They have a lot to overcome including K-State.

LSU-Auburn

Auburn does not deserve a bid but they still have higher metrics than everybody else in my last Four In.  Bruce Pearl actively lobbying for them makes me hope they lose more.  Dirty, cheating coach.

Tuesday Bracketology

 1. Duke  vs  16. Bethune Cookman/Howard
1. Michigan  vs  16. UMBC/Tennessee St.
1. Arizona  vs  16. LIU
1. Connecticut  vs  16. Portland St.
2. Houston  vs  15. Wright St.
2. Florida  vs  15. East Tennessee St.
2. Nebraska  vs  15. Merrimack
2. Michigan St.  vs  15. Central Arkansas
3. Illinois  vs  14. Troy
3. Iowa St.  vs  14. Navy
3. Texas Tech  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Purdue  vs  14. Hawaii
4. Alabama  vs  13. Cal Baptist
4. Kansas  vs  13. UNC Wilmington
4. Gonzaga  vs  13. High Point
4. North Carolina  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. Virginia  vs  12. Liberty
5. Arkansas  vs  12. Yale
5. Tennessee  vs  12. Belmont
5. Vanderbilt  vs  12. South Florida
6. St. John's  vs  11. San Diego St.
6. BYU  vs  11. New Mexico/Texas A&M
6. Wisconsin  vs  11. Santa Clara/TCU
6. Kentucky  vs  11. Ohio St.
7. Villanova  vs  10. UCLA
7. Louisville  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Saint Mary's  vs  10. Texas
7. Utah St.  vs  10. N.C. State
8. Clemson  vs  9. Missouri
8. Saint Louis  vs  9. SMU
8. Georgia  vs  9. UCF
8. Miami Fl  vs  9. Iowa

First Four Out - Auburn

First Four Out - Virginia Tech

First Four Out - California

First Four Out - VCU

Next Four Out - Indiana

Next Four Out - Seton Hall

Next Four Out - USC

Next Four Out - Oklahoma St.

Also Considered - Cincinnati

Also Considered - Boise St.

Also Considered - Stanford

Also Considered - West Virginia

Conference Tournaments - March 4, 2026

 Ohio Valley

#1 Seed – Tennessee State

We have another nice bracket with the top 2 seeds getting bye’s to the semi-finals.  UT-Martin led this conference for most of the season but fell off.  I loved when Morehead beat Louisville some time ago.   For that reason alone, my pick is Morehead.

Big South

#1 Seed – High Point

High Point has been humming along nicely all year long and finish at 27-4.  This is a 13 seed, perhaps 12 when all is said and done.  They can win a game from either seed.  I’m betting they at least get a chance.  Pick – High Point

Atlantic Sun

#1 Seed – Central Arkansas

Central Arkansas is famous for Scottie Pippen.  I hate the Bulls so they are out. Austin Peay tied up top with a 15-3 record but fall to the 2 seed.  This bracket has upset written all over it.  According to Google, Lipscomb’s most famous alumni is Kelsea Ballerini.  Good enough for me.  Th ePick - Lipscomb

Summit

#1 Seed – North Dakota State

This one is going to be short and sweet; Noth Dakota St is the 1 seed but St. Thomas split with them during the season.  I’m guessing they meet in the championship for the chance to be a 14 seed.  St. Thomas is the pick.

Northeast

#1 Seed – LIU

I just learned this year that LIU is no longer the Blackbirds after merging two campuses.  Now they are the Long Island Sharks.  They took the Blackbirds, merged with Pioneers and came up with Sharks…that’s not better.  I have to pick Central Connecticut State since they have the best mascot.  CCSU Blue Devils are the pick.

Conference Tournaments - March 3, 2026

 Horizon League:

#1 Seed – Wright State

This is 16 seed fodder and Wright State isn’t much better than the rest of the top half of the conference.  This is a dart throw at best but I’m going with UW-Green Bay to get hot and dance with Doug Gottlieb for the first time

Conference Tournaments - March 3, 2026

Patriot League:

#1 Seed – Navy

Navy is a 14 seed and should be able to finish this group out. #1 Navy is the pick

Sun Belt:

#1 Seed – Troy

The Sun Belt knows how to set up the top seeds with Troy and Marshall receiving 5 byes.  Those two only need to win 2 game to get the bid.  Seriously, check out this bracket!  As easy as it is for Troy to win 2 and be in I’m going to go with a team to get hot and rip off a couple wins in a row.  Sometimes it’s hard to sit and wait to play.  #6 South Alabama is the pick.

ASun, Big South, NEC, OVC, Summit

ASun-

Live from Jacksonville, it’s the ASun. The ASun has two teams with a positive AdjustedEM, Central Arkansas and Austin Peay. Only 4 teams had a winning record in league play. It’s grim.

The regular season champ was Central Arkansas, 154th in KenPom. Austin Peay finished 2nd and is 165. Queens and Lipscomb, the other two teams with winning records in league are also the only other top 200 KenPom teams.

Central Arkansas has won 13 of 14 and is the pick.

Big South-

The Big South is played in Johnson City, TN at Freedom Hall. Sounds patriotic. High Point won the league at 15-1 and went 27-4 overall. They’re 91st in KenPom. Bracket buster alert. They’ve won 11 in a row. They’re the 4th best turnover % on both sides of the ball nationally. Note that should they draw a turnover prone team in a few weeks.

Of course, they have to win the conference tourney. Their only loss was to Winthrop who finished 2nd and is the only other top-200 KenPom team. 

High Point is the pick.

NEC-

The NEC tips Wednesday as well. Per usual, this is 16-seed territory. No team is top-200 in KenPom. Rod Strickland’s LIU won the regular season title and are the faves. Central Connecticut finished 2nd but were swept by LIU.

Mercyhurst and Le Moyne finished T-3 and split with LIU. I’ll stick with LIU. 

Ohio Valley-

The OVC travels to Evansville, IN and begin festivities on Tuesday. Another league with no top-200 KenPom teams, the regular season champs were Tennessee State and Morehead State, who both went 15-5. They split the regular season matchups. They’re 207 and 282 in KenPom, respectively. Nolan Smith coaches Tennessee State.

The middle of the league is tight and it should make this tournament fairly wide open. UT-Martin saw the wheels fall off going 2-5 over the last 7. They had wins over UNLV and Bradley in non-com.  Tennessee State and Morehead State have been playing the best down the stretch and one of those should win but I’ll pick SIUE who is coached by Marquette legend, Brian Barone.

Summit- 

The Summit begins Tuesday in beautiful Sioux Falls. The regular season champ was North Dakota St who finished 14-2 in league play, splitting with 2nd place St. Thomas. St. Thomas is higher in KenPom at 105 vs. NDSU which is 118. The rest of the league is sub-200. Woof if someone other than the top 2 win.

St. Thomas is the pick because they lead the nation in 2pt shooting % and are 4th overall in effective fg%. NDSU is 233rd in effective fg% defense. Between the two of them, the Tommies are more likely to steal a win in the Big Dance.

Conference Tournaments - March 2, 2026

 

Horizon League:

#1 Seed – Wright State

This is 16 seed fodder and Wright State isn’t much better than the rest of the top half of the conference.  This is a dart throw at best but I’m going with UW-Green Bay to get hot and dance with Doug Gottlieb for the first time

Bubble Carnage

 I've already made it clear the bubble this year is extremely gross and yesterday proved my point even further.  3 of my 4 10  seeds loss with only Missouri surviving out of that group.  Auburn is probaly going to drop all the way out, especially if Ohio State wins today.  UCLA and Texas A&M should only drop to an 11 seed with UCLA more safe than A&M.  On the 11 seed line both California and San Diego State lost. San Diego St. will just flip with the team they lost to, New Mexico, who was my first team out.  California lost at home to a bad Pittsburgh team so that is not only a drop out but possibly down to the next four out.

As for the First Four Out, both Virginia Tech and USC lost while Seton Hall and Oklahoma State both lost from the Next Four Out.  Indiana and Ohio State have big opportunities today while VCU stays alive.

Teams are playing themselves into the NIT at this point.

Patriot Fun Belt

Patriot-

The Patriot League begins their March to a conference champ beginning Tuesday. All games are played at the higher seed.

Make no bones about it, Navy is the prohibitive favorite, the only team with a positive AdjEM and nearly + 9 on American and +10 on Lehigh and Boston. Navy might win a tourney game, anyone else is likely a 16.

Navy is 135 in KenPom, American is next closest at 240. American did beat Navy by 14 in the regular season. Navy swept all other Patriot League teams, though they needed 2 overtimes at Lehigh and overtime at Colgate.

Wild and concerning stat: opponents only make 29.3% of 3’s against Navy but 45% of all opponent shots come from 3. So…if Boston were to beat them because they’re a really good 3-point shooting team, you shouldn’t be surprised.

The pick is Navy still but that wild and concerning stat is something. 

Sun Belt-

This wasn’t a banner year in the Sun Belt. There isn’t a definitive favorite as they tip off in Pensacola beginning Tuesday.

Only 2 teams have positive AdjEM, Troy at +0.90 and Arkansas State at +1.71. Only 5 teams are top-200 in KenPom. Arkansas State is 143 which is worse than Navy. And 3 of the 5 are 185, 195 and 198. There isn’t a team that screams bracket buster.

I think any of the top 9 can win this. Troy won the league at 12-6 and then there are 6 teams at 11-7. Want to live stupidly, gamble on this bracket.

The league wants Troy or Arkansas State to win. One of them might accidentally win a game in the big dance. I’ll take Arkansas State because they play ridiculously fast and love turning it over but rebound like mad men on the offensive side. 345th on offensive turnover % and 11th in offensive rebounding %. That’s the kind of team you want to see in March, fun and dumb which might be what this conference tournament is.

Horizon League

Believe it or not, conference tournaments commence on Monday as the Horizon League kicks us off. Opening rounds are at the higher seeds with the semifinals and final played in Indianapolis.

Wright State is the regular season champ and 155th in KenPom. 2nd place Robert Morris is 147 and Oakland is 157. They’re the only 3 teams with a positive net rating. Northern Kentucky is 159 in KenPom and Youngstown State is at 200.

15-seed territory here and 16-seed if we get an upset champ, something this league does from time-to-time, though not the last few years. The best non-con win was by Robert Morris over Illinois-Chicago. Oakland played the toughest schedule.

The pick: Robert Morris

Belmont

To answer Brian’s question partially, one of those teams is Belmont, who I wanted to write about. The Bruins are 26-4 and regular season champs in the Valley, a clear 3 games ahead of the 2nd place team heading into the final weekend.

The Bruins will need to win the Valley. The resume is paper thin and they have losses to Richmond and a bad Indiana State team. The best non-con win is over Illinois-Chicago and though the Valley isn’t bad this year, it’s not good enough for multiple bids.

Belmont does what most Belmont teams have done historically, shoot the ball well. They’re the best 3-point shooting team in the nation, shooting 41% from 3. They’re 5th in the nation from 2, as well. Add it up and this is the best real shooting team in America. With an effective fg% of 61.4, that’s clear of number 2 St. Louis and St. Thomas who are 60.1. So-so defending teams want nothing to do with Belmont should they draw them in March. 

Defensively, they aren’t nearly as good and should give you pause as a bracket buster. 119th in KenPom is a red flag. They don’t anything terribly on defense but nothing is top-50 other than FTA/FGA and that’s right at 50. Ideally, they draw someone like Carolina or St. John’s.

For the most part, this is a pretty young team, 280th in experience, so if they somehow manage to keep the team together, they’ll be a menace next year. They do have a senior in Tyler Lundblade who sees the most minutes. He plays largely off ball and shoots 41% from 3. He’s also 93% from the line. Frosh Jack Smiley has seen some minutes at PG and has a 26% assist rate while shooting 44% from 3.

Casey Alexander has seen his name mentioned for potential openings and maybe he jumps but he’s a Nashville guy having coached at Lipscomb before taking over at Belmont. Not that it always matters, he’s also an alum and is from Chattanooga originally. If he goes, he’ll have a nice group to potentially bring with him. Hopefully, he stays and retains his roster. If so, they’ll be a force in ‘27.

Friday Bracketology

 1. Duke  vs  16. Morgan St./Bethune Cookman
1. Michigan  vs  16. UMBC/Morehead St.
1. Arizona  vs  16. Marshall
1. Connecticut  vs  16. LIU
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Portland St.
2. Houston  vs  15. Wright St.
2. Illinois  vs  15. Merrimack
2. Florida  vs  15. Austin Peay
3. Purdue  vs  14. East Tennessee St.
3. Nebraska  vs  14. Navy
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. UC Irvine
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Utah Valley
4. Kansas  vs  13. UNC Wilmington
4. Alabama  vs  13. High Point
4. Virginia  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. Tennessee  vs  12. Liberty
5. Arkansas  vs  12. Belmont
5. Vanderbilt  vs  12. Yale
5. North Carolina  vs  12. South Florida
6. Louisville  vs  11. Miami OH
6. BYU  vs  11. San Diego St./California
6. St. John's  vs  11. Santa Clara/TCU
6. Wisconsin  vs  11. Texas
7. Villanova  vs  10. UCLA
7. Kentucky  vs  10. Missouri
7. UCF  vs  10. Texas A&M
7. Utah St.  vs  10. Auburn
8. Clemson  vs  9. Georgia
8. Saint Louis  vs  9. SMU
8. Saint Mary's  vs  9. Miami Fl
8. Iowa  vs  9. N.C. State

First Four Out - New Mexico

First Four Out - Virginia Tech

First Four Out - Ohio St.

First Four Out - USC

Next Four Out - Indiana

Next Four Out - Seton Hall

Next Four Out - VCU

Next Four Out - Oklahoma St.

Also Considered - Cincinnati

Also Considered - Boise St.

Also Considered - Grand Canyon

Also Considered - Colorado St.

Blind Resume

 Alright, let's do a blind Resume and see who we like for an at-large bid.  Rank These Teams:

Team 1
KenPom: 82
Torvik: 75
WAB: 28
SoS: 306
Q1 Record: 0-0
Q1+Q2: 1-0

Team 2
KenPom: 53
Torvik: 55
WAB: 64
SoS: 104 
Q1 Record: 2-2
Q1+Q2: 6-5

Team 3
KenPom: 55
Torvik: 63
WAB: 42
SoS: 157
Q1 Record: 0-0
Q1+Q2: 5-1

One of these teams is easy, the other two, not so much.

Santa Clara

Brian has them in the play-in in his latest bracket. They’re 34th in KenPom. They’re also so close to being a lock. Let’s take a look at Arizona’s worst nightmare.

The Broncos has some agonizing losses. 1- point to St. Louis. Bad losses to Loyola Chicago and Arizona State by a combined 5 points. Mix in a blowout loss at New Mexico and you get the bubble. Those 3 losses, by a total of 6 points might just haunt this team.

To make matters worse, they were swept by Gonzaga in league play. Even a split would have gone pretty far. They travel to St. Mary’s tonight in what feels like a must win game.

Head coach Herb Sendek has seemingly spent his career on the bubble. Even more wild is, this is his 10th year at Santa Clara. He hasn’t been to the tournament since 2014 with any school. If this team doesn’t dance, I’m not sure I can sum up Sendek’s career much more than this season. 

This is a solid club that is a 9-10 seed unfortunately stuck in a mid-major. They’re 27th in AdjO and 57th in AdjD. They’re a very good offensive rebounding team and very good at forcing turnovers. A decent shooting team but have a slightly below average defensive real shooting %. They’re a 9-10 seed as you analyze them.

I’ve been loosely following them as I’ve waited for a 3rd WCC team to emerge as I do yearly. Tonight is a big game. A win will go a long way, a loss puts a lot of pressure on the WCC Tournament that begins next week. The Herb Sendek experience continues as it always has.

The Sad State of the Bubble

I've been hesitant to start highlighting bubble games so far because quite frankly, the bubble is essentially garbage this year.  Among bracketologists there really are only about 5-6 teams that are floating above and below the cutline.  The consensus is very clear at this point that Ohio State, Virginia Tech, San Diego State, and USC are all on the outside looking in.  The next four out are also very clear, and most of these teams may not even be able to play themselves into the bracket without winning out to their Conference Tournament Championship games.  This group includes Seton Hall, VCU, Oklahoma State, and your choice of a Mountain West team not named New Mexico. 

That being said the 6 teams that are vying for those last 5 spots in order are TCU, Santa Clara, California, Missouri, New Mexico, and Indiana.  None of these teams really wow you and they all have glaring issues in their resume.

TCU - Pros: 4 Q1 win, Cons: a Q3 and Q4 loss

Santa Clara - Pros: 8-5 in Q1/Q2 and top 40 NCSOS, Cons: a Q4 loss

California - Pros: 4-5 in Quad 1, Cons: 281 in NCSOS and a KP of 68

Missouri - Pros: 8-9 in the first two Q, Cons: 51 in WAB (Wins Above Bubble)

New Mexico - Pros: 7-1 in Q2, Cons: Only 2 Q1 wins and a Q3 loss

Indiana - Pros: Top 45 in most metrics, Cons: Only 2-10 in Q1 games

This is remarkably worse than in years past, and the teams in my first four out and next four out are clearly behind them.  In all fairness, the last 4 bye teams, UCLA, Texas, Auburn, and Texas A&M don't really jump off the page at you either.  I know the committee will expand no matter what the numbers say as they are chasing the almighty dollar but if we were at 76 teams this year, the bubble would consist of team sitting at .500 on the year.  Gross