Monday Bracketology

1. Duke  vs  16. LeHigh/Bethune Cookman
1. Michigan  vs  16. UMBC/Howard
1. Arizona  vs  16. LIU
1. Florida  vs  16. Queens
2. Houston  vs  15. Tennessee St.
2. Illinois  vs  15. Wright St.
2. Michigan St.  vs  15. Merrimack
2. Connecticut  vs  15. East Tennessee St.
3. Nebraska  vs  14. Portland St.
3. Iowa St.  vs  14. Troy
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Alabama  vs  14. UC Irvine
4. Purdue  vs  13. Utah Valley
4. Kansas  vs  13. Hofstra
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Liberty
4. Virginia  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. Arkansas  vs  12. Northern Iowa
5. Vanderbilt  vs  12. Yale
5. North Carolina  vs  12. High Point
5. Louisville  vs  12. South Florida
6. St. John's  vs  11. VCU/Stanford
6. Wisconsin  vs  11. SMU/Santa Clara
6. Kentucky  vs  11. Texas
6. Tennessee  vs  11. N.C. State
7. Villanova  vs  10. Missouri
7. BYU  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Saint Mary's  vs  10. UCF
7. Georgia  vs  10. Ohio St.
8. Clemson  vs  9. Texas A&M
8. Miami Fl  vs  9. Iowa
8. Utah St.  vs  9. TCU
8. UCLA  vs  9. Saint Louis

First Four Out - Auburn

First Four Out - San Diego St.

First Four Out - New Mexico

First Four Out - Oklahoma

Next Four Out - California

Next Four Out - Indiana

Next Four Out - Virginia Tech

Next Four Out - West Virginia

Also Considered - Cincinnati

Also Considered - Boise St.

Also Considered - Oklahoma St.

Also Considered - Seton Hall

Quick Monday Thoughts

Two bids go out tonight and one Conference kicks off it's tournament.

Southern:

#6 Furman vs #1 ETSU - ETSU survived a scare this weekend but are ready to grab a 14 seed should they get the job done tonight

Sun Belt

#10 Georgia Southern vs #1 Troy - I bet this is going to be a good game and not a normal 1 vs 10.  I'm calling for the upset.

SWAC

#1 Seed - Bethune Cookman

BC is the top seed and even if they win all games by a million they are a 16 seed.  They at least have a top 20 NCSOS.  That might be enough to keep them out of the play-in games.  The Pick is Bethune Cookman.

Money Grabbers and CUSA

ACC-

ACC has probably seen its bubbles burst? VA Tech lost an opportunity against UVA. Stanford beat NC State, maybe moving up the bubble? Get to the semifinals and we’ll talk.

The pick is Duke unless they’re bored and then I’ll pick Miami

Big XIIIIII

Bubbles are Ok State and Cincinnati who both lost Saturday. Cincinnati and UCF likely play on Wednesday. Big game. Tech and ISU could use a good week.

The pick is Arizona

Big 18

Wisconsin is elevating, Illinois and Purdue are sinking. Bracket isn’t set yet because the league is arrogant and needs as much TV time as possible all to their own. I hate this league so much. Go independent, Blue.

The pick is Wisconsin

CUSA

Finally, a tournament that really means something. Tournament is held in Huntsville and Liberty in the regular season champion. However, they’ve lost 3 of 5. Sam Houston St. finished 2nd and is 8 spots better in KenPom.

Sam Houston is 14th in the nation in 3-pt shooting while Liberty is 5th. Liberty just beat them to close the regular season.

Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee and Louisiana Tech all tied for 3rd. Tech is the best defense in the league but brutal on offense. They play Middle Tennessee in the quarters with the winner getting Liberty. 

I can’t pick Liberty, a disgraceful university, so I’ll take Sam Houston State but pulling for Louisiana Tech

SOUTHLAND SWACS

Southland-

From Lake Charles, the Southland begins their conference tournament on Sunday. And I begin my golf season, so me and The Southland are best friends in March.

Stephen F. Austin won the regular season title, going 20-2. They get a bye to the semifinals like 2nd place finisher, McNeese State. McNeese is 67 in KenPom and SFA is 86. They split in the regular season with each game being close. McNeese has won 8 straight games.

Those two are prohibitive favorites. UT-Rio Grande Valley finished 3rd and are 125th in KenPom. Chorpus-Christi, my niece’s school finished 4th and are 179th in KenPom. The campus is on an island and she gets to go fishing daily. I’m jealous.

The pick is McNeese.

SWAC-

Play-in tournament for the play-in. The SWAC hosts their tournament in Atlanta. The league was actually much better this year than most. The league plays second fastest of any league in the country.

Bethune-Cookman won the league behind Reggie Theus. They set the tone early by taking Auburn to overtime to start the year to expose nepo baby Steven Pearl. They’re the only team with a winning record outside Alabama A&M but are 60 spots better in KenPom and swept them in the regular season. They’re the pick.

First Bid and More

The Ohio Valley Conference Championship is tonight with #1 Tennessee State playing #2 Morehead State.

The first bid is upon us.

Four more bids will go out tomorrow, the Big South, Missouri Valley, A-Sun, and Summit.

As for the rest of the action, the biggest loser was Belmont, who lost to 9 seeded Drake.  A good season ruined by 40 bad minutes of basketball.  They don't have any high profile wins but their metrics aren't that far off from most of the bubble teams.  They can't get in and that's a bummer.  Bradley slides in as the current representative for the Missouri Valley.

Seton Hall lost which all but eliminates them from the Bubble Watch.  West Virginia and San Diego State hang on and suddenly we need to look into UCF further to see how bad the metrics are after a couple of losses.

Last, Miami OH finished undefeated in the regular season and I think they are a lock no matter what they do in the conference tournament.

Bubble Watch

VCU at Dayton - VCU has one of my last bids and needs to keep winning

San Diego State vs UNLV - The Aztecs are one of the First Four out.  A win and a VCU loss would be nice for them.

St. John's at Seton Hall - Seton Hall needs some big wins and just one won't do.  This is 100% necessary

UCF at West Virginia - UCF is still OK but a win leaves them as a lock.  West Virginia is technically still alive.

Miami OH at Ohio - I don't think Miami OH is on the bubble but win this and there's no question.

Friday Bracketology

 1. Duke  vs  16. Bethune Cookman/Howard
1. Michigan  vs  16. UMBC/Tennessee St.
1. Arizona  vs  16. LIU
1. Connecticut  vs  16. Central Arkansas
2. Houston  vs  15. Wright St.
2. Florida  vs  15. East Tennessee St.
2. Michigan St.  vs  15. Merrimack
2. Illinois  vs  15. Portland St.
3. Nebraska  vs  14. Troy
3. Iowa St.  vs  14. Navy
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Purdue  vs  14. Hawaii
4. Alabama  vs  13. Cal Baptist
4. Kansas  vs  13. UNC Wilmington
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Liberty
4. North Carolina  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. Virginia  vs  12. High Point
5. Arkansas  vs  12. Yale
5. Tennessee  vs  12. Belmont
5. Vanderbilt  vs  12. South Florida
6. St. John's  vs  11. Santa Clara/New Mexico
6. Louisville  vs  11. Ohio St./VCU
6. Wisconsin  vs  11. Texas
6. Kentucky  vs  11. Texas A&M
7. Villanova  vs  10. SMU
7. BYU  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Saint Mary's  vs  10. TCU
7. Miami Fl  vs  10. N.C. State
8. Clemson  vs  9. Missouri
8. Saint Louis  vs  9. UCLA
8. Georgia  vs  9. UCF
8. Utah St.  vs  9. Iowa

First Four Out - Auburn

First Four Out - San Diego St.

First Four Out - California

First Four Out - Virginia Tech

Next Four Out - Indiana

Next Four Out - Seton Hall

Next Four Out - USC

Next Four Out - Oklahoma St.

Also Considered - Cincinnati

Also Considered - Stanford

Also Considered - Tulsa

Also Considered - West Virginia

Conference Tournaments - March 7, 2026 and March 8, 20026

 America East

#1 Seed – UMBC

The team that brought me so much joy years ago.  The game where they beat Virginia is one of those games that I wish I could go back and watch from start to finish without knowing the outcome.  Only UMBC and Vermont are above 300 in KenPom.  This is a play-in game no matter who wins.  Let’s pick NJIT.

Big Sky

#1 Seed – Portland State

On the flip side of the KenPom numbers the Big Sky has 7 teams above 200.  That’s remarkable in comparison to the America East.  Portland State won the conference by 1 game but 5 more teams are only 2 games behind that.  This tournament is wide open, and I would guess Montana State, while 2^nd, is probably the favorite.  Let’s get crazy here, the pick is 4 seeded Northern Colorado.

Southland

#1 Seed – Stephen F. Austin

This was supposed to be McNeese State but Will Wade left and took his dirty grimy hands to North Carolina State where he will fail year after year until he’s fired since he’s only a good coach when he can cheat.  Well, that’s enough on that tangent.  SFA won the conference but I’m willing to say McNeese is the favorite.  Each has 1 game and then they will meet in the Finals.  The pick in McNeese St.

AMEAST BIG SKY

America East-

The America East tips Saturday. All games are on campus. UMBC won the league at 14-2 and is 200 in KenPom after starting the year at 296.

Perennial bracket buster favorite, Vermont, finished 2nd at 12-4 in league. They own 1 of 2 wins over Vermont and are 238 in KenPom. All other teams are sub-300. UMBC is the pick. 

Big Sky-

Live from Boise, the Big Sky also tips Saturday. This league is much more fun than the AmEast. They actually have 4 teams with positive net ratings. Portland State won the league at 13-5 but is 3rd best in KenPom in the league and has lost 3 of 4.

Montana State finished 2nd and is 131st in KenPom. They own a win over St. Thomas and took Utah State to overtime. But, they also lost to a bad Oral Bob team.

Northern Colorado is in a logjam tying for 4th but has the second best KenPom number at 138. Northern Colorado beat regular Colorado in non-con.

Montana State is the most well-balanced of the 3 and are my pick. Do be mindful of Eastern Washington who have won 8 of 9 after starting the year at 5-17. Want to take a flyer on a losing team to make the dance, this might be your squad.

Conference Tournaments - March 6, 2026

Southern

#1 Seed – East Tennessee State

ETSU are the clear number 1 team here but the next 5 teams are either 11-7 or 10-8 in the conference.  ETSU can get a 15 seed but anybody else is probably a non-play in game 16 seed.  Wofford, Mercer, and Furman have also all had a bit of success in the tournament so the winner is live to at least put up a fight.  My pick is still ETSU.

Coastal

#1 Seed – UNC-Wilmington

The Seahwaks are the top seed but this is a fairly open tournament.  Kurly has the Pride winning it all and I cn see that happening.  The top 5 all have a chance and depending on who gets it will determine if they are a 13 or 14 seed.  I’d love to pick William and Mary but ultimately I think Charleston get it done.  The pick is Charleston

Bubble Updates

Winners:

Indiana, California, Ohio State, and Stanford

Ohio State remains in the bracket and may be moving out of the play in game.  The are getting hot at the right time.  Indiana and California are looking to move back in should somebody lose.  Hint:  New Mexico lost.  Stanford remains way outside but they have a pulse.

Losers:

SMU, Texas, New Mexico, and USC

SMU and Texas are 95% safe but a loss still doesn't look good.  New Mexico's loss gives an opening to Indiana or California.  I haven't updated the metrics yet but it's going to be close.  USC is done.

Bubble Tonight:

Nothing, Zip, Zylch, Nada.  The negative side to getting good Friday night games during the season is the NCAA gave Thursday night to the women.  Meh

CAA SoCon

CAA-

The Coastal, sigh, tips off Friday in D.C. UNC-Wilmington are the regular season champs, going 15-3 in league play and 26-5 overall. Head coach Takayo Siddle will be a hot name during the upcoming coaching cycle. They’re 99th in KenPom overall.

Charleston finished 2nd behind Chris Mack. The Cougars are 142nd in KenPom. 3rd place Hofstra is 92nd in KenPom, lead by Speedy Claxton.

The winner should be Hofstra or UNCW. UNCW could get a 12-13 seed and would be a good pick to pull off an upset. Hofstra isn’t a bad club and own wins over Pitt and Syracuse. They’ve won 8 of 9 but a 5-game losing streak to close January hurts the overall resume. I’ll pick UNCW but Hofstra has my attention. 

SoCon-

What to make of the SoCon as the tourney tips from Asheville on Friday. East Tennessee State won the regular season title and is 141st in KenPom. Mercer finished tied 2nd and is 182nd. Samford tied them and is 208.

Usual contenders, Wofford and Furman aren’t the teams of the last decade. Wofford is 248 in KenPom while Furman is 203. UNC-Greensboro is 304 this year. Down year for the league.

I’ll take ETSU because Mercer doesn’t play any defense but I won’t be stunned to see some chicanery here.

Bubble Tonight

 

Bubble In:

Ohio State at Penn State – Penn State can be feisty to Ohio State better watch themselves on the road

Colorado State at New Mexico – Currently in the play in game New Mexico needs every win available.

Bubble Out:

Minnesota at Indiana -  Some brackets actually have Indiana in.  They are in my next 4 out but could get there

California at Georgia Tech – Cal just fell out of the bracket but have the metrics to get back in.  Can’t afford a loss

USC at Washington – If you want to roll with Chad Baker -Mazara you get what you deserve and that’s not a bid

Stanford at Notre Dame – shockingly Stanford is still hanging around

Tuesday Night Winners and Losers

Winners:

Texas A&M - as predicted Kentucky lays an egg and the Aggies cruise to a victory

TCU - they are lock with the win at Texas Tech

VCU - remains in the hunt for an at-large bid

Auburn, Seton Hall, Oklahoma State, and Cincinnati - all with wins to keep hope alive.

 

Losers:

San Diego St. - Boise State takes them out and it's time to double check their resume

West Virginia - put a fork in them

Clemson - the free fall continues

Kansas and BYU - I guess having the top 2 NBA prospects isn't enough

Conference Tournaments - March 5, 2026

 Missouri Valley

#1 Seed – Belmont

Belmont is one Quad win away from being an actual At-Large candidate.  They were the best resume in the Blind Resume post.  Resume metrics have them ahead of teams like Texas A&M and San Diego State.  Predictive doesn’t like them as much.  They are close but I don’t think they will get an at-large if they lose during Arch Madness.  Northern Iowa is going to be their toughest test but I hope Belmont wins and takes a 5 seed down.  The pick is Belmont.

Metro Atlantic

#1 Seed – Merrimack

Merrimack is the only team above 200 in KenPom and is the only team from this conference that would be as high as a 15 seed.  A couple teams can push Merrimack and I’m going with Siena to get it done.  Gerry McNamara gets it done, wins a play in game as a 16 seed, then takes the Syracuse job.  The pick is Siena

West Coast

#1 Seed – Gonzaga

Another bracket that looks like a flying V.  Gonzaga and St. Mary’s get byes to the semi-finals.  I’d love to see another game between the these teams but Santa Clara is creeping around.  I want 3 West Coast teams in the Tournament.  The pick:  Santa Clara.

MAAC, Valley and WCC

MAAC - 

All of my favorite mid-majors start tourney play on Thursday. First up, the MAAC who will be in Atlantic City. 

Only one team is top-200 in KenPom, Merrimack. They still have a negative AdjEM but won the league going 17-3. Want a crazy stat? Opponents have an offensive rebounding % of 40%.

There are 7 teams beside Merrimack at .500 or better in league. Feels like a wide open tourney. So, give me Siena and make that Gerry McNamara to Syracuse talk heat up.

Arch Madness

One of the best tournaments of the season happens in St. Louis where nothing good rarely happens. It’s been a better year in the Valley as mentioned in our Belmont piece. Of course, Belmont immediately lost after I wrote that, but they’re still 55th in KenPom and capable of shooting someone out of the Big Dance.

Bradley finished 2nd and Brian Wardle will probably have some opportunities to move up the food chain. Still, his Braves were 7th best in KenPom in the league. UNI who finished 6th is 80th in KenPom. Illinois State is 96th, UIC is 109 and Murray State is 117. Heck, Southern Illinois who finished .500 in the league is 114.

Should be a good show. I’ll pick UNI to pull the upset. I’d like to see Belmont but they’ve made me mad in the past by not busting brackets.

WCC

The last trip to Vegas as WCC members for the Zags. Kind of sad and everyone will want to see them lose. Do they pull a Syracuse who won their last trip to MSG or do the Zags bow out losers? 

St. Mary’s is my pick. The Gaels are the best FT shooting team in the nation and are 9th best from 3. They rebound both sides of the glass and don’t foul. They’re also a young team. 337th in experience and they still went 27-4. I’ve been burned by them before but I might be mentally putting them into the Sweet 16 as of today. They have 2 7’ guys getting decent minutes. 

Also, as discussed last week, Santa Clara is on bubble watch. Have to get to the title game. The Sendek Experience continues to run amok.

Tuesday Bubble Action

Bubble In:

TCU at Texas Tech

TCU is in my last bye spot and a loss won't drop them out.  A win and they might be a lock.

Kentucky at Texas A&M

A&M has fallen all the way to the play-in games.  Best not to lose tonight.  I wonder which Kentucky team shows up?  I guess it will be bad Kentucky and A&M wins by 17

San Diego St at Boise St

This is 95% about San Diego St but a little about Boise State as well.  The Aztecs are my last team in and cannot afford a loss. Boise State remains in the Also Considered Garbage Bucket.

Bubble Out:

George Mason at VCU

VCU suddenly has a real shot but they cannot afford to lose until probably the A-10 championship game.  This won't be easy tonight but a loss ends their hopes.

Seton Hall at Xavier

The Hall missed a golden opportunity against Connecticut and now have little room for error.  Their 2 Q1 wins leave them in the discussion for now.

West Virginia at Kansas State

The Mountaineers have the best Q1 record of teams currently out of the bracket at 5-7 but they have a Q3 loss.  Their Q2 record of 1-4 isn't great either.  They have a lot to overcome including K-State.

LSU-Auburn

Auburn does not deserve a bid but they still have higher metrics than everybody else in my last Four In.  Bruce Pearl actively lobbying for them makes me hope they lose more.  Dirty, cheating coach.

Tuesday Bracketology

 1. Duke  vs  16. Bethune Cookman/Howard
1. Michigan  vs  16. UMBC/Tennessee St.
1. Arizona  vs  16. LIU
1. Connecticut  vs  16. Portland St.
2. Houston  vs  15. Wright St.
2. Florida  vs  15. East Tennessee St.
2. Nebraska  vs  15. Merrimack
2. Michigan St.  vs  15. Central Arkansas
3. Illinois  vs  14. Troy
3. Iowa St.  vs  14. Navy
3. Texas Tech  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Purdue  vs  14. Hawaii
4. Alabama  vs  13. Cal Baptist
4. Kansas  vs  13. UNC Wilmington
4. Gonzaga  vs  13. High Point
4. North Carolina  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. Virginia  vs  12. Liberty
5. Arkansas  vs  12. Yale
5. Tennessee  vs  12. Belmont
5. Vanderbilt  vs  12. South Florida
6. St. John's  vs  11. San Diego St.
6. BYU  vs  11. New Mexico/Texas A&M
6. Wisconsin  vs  11. Santa Clara/TCU
6. Kentucky  vs  11. Ohio St.
7. Villanova  vs  10. UCLA
7. Louisville  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Saint Mary's  vs  10. Texas
7. Utah St.  vs  10. N.C. State
8. Clemson  vs  9. Missouri
8. Saint Louis  vs  9. SMU
8. Georgia  vs  9. UCF
8. Miami Fl  vs  9. Iowa

First Four Out - Auburn

First Four Out - Virginia Tech

First Four Out - California

First Four Out - VCU

Next Four Out - Indiana

Next Four Out - Seton Hall

Next Four Out - USC

Next Four Out - Oklahoma St.

Also Considered - Cincinnati

Also Considered - Boise St.

Also Considered - Stanford

Also Considered - West Virginia

Conference Tournaments - March 4, 2026

 Ohio Valley

#1 Seed – Tennessee State

We have another nice bracket with the top 2 seeds getting bye’s to the semi-finals.  UT-Martin led this conference for most of the season but fell off.  I loved when Morehead beat Louisville some time ago.   For that reason alone, my pick is Morehead.

Big South

#1 Seed – High Point

High Point has been humming along nicely all year long and finish at 27-4.  This is a 13 seed, perhaps 12 when all is said and done.  They can win a game from either seed.  I’m betting they at least get a chance.  Pick – High Point

Atlantic Sun

#1 Seed – Central Arkansas

Central Arkansas is famous for Scottie Pippen.  I hate the Bulls so they are out. Austin Peay tied up top with a 15-3 record but fall to the 2 seed.  This bracket has upset written all over it.  According to Google, Lipscomb’s most famous alumni is Kelsea Ballerini.  Good enough for me.  Th ePick - Lipscomb

Summit

#1 Seed – North Dakota State

This one is going to be short and sweet; Noth Dakota St is the 1 seed but St. Thomas split with them during the season.  I’m guessing they meet in the championship for the chance to be a 14 seed.  St. Thomas is the pick.

Northeast

#1 Seed – LIU

I just learned this year that LIU is no longer the Blackbirds after merging two campuses.  Now they are the Long Island Sharks.  They took the Blackbirds, merged with Pioneers and came up with Sharks…that’s not better.  I have to pick Central Connecticut State since they have the best mascot.  CCSU Blue Devils are the pick.

Conference Tournaments - March 3, 2026

 Horizon League:

#1 Seed – Wright State

This is 16 seed fodder and Wright State isn’t much better than the rest of the top half of the conference.  This is a dart throw at best but I’m going with UW-Green Bay to get hot and dance with Doug Gottlieb for the first time

Conference Tournaments - March 3, 2026

Patriot League:

#1 Seed – Navy

Navy is a 14 seed and should be able to finish this group out. #1 Navy is the pick

Sun Belt:

#1 Seed – Troy

The Sun Belt knows how to set up the top seeds with Troy and Marshall receiving 5 byes.  Those two only need to win 2 game to get the bid.  Seriously, check out this bracket!  As easy as it is for Troy to win 2 and be in I’m going to go with a team to get hot and rip off a couple wins in a row.  Sometimes it’s hard to sit and wait to play.  #6 South Alabama is the pick.

ASun, Big South, NEC, OVC, Summit

ASun-

Live from Jacksonville, it’s the ASun. The ASun has two teams with a positive AdjustedEM, Central Arkansas and Austin Peay. Only 4 teams had a winning record in league play. It’s grim.

The regular season champ was Central Arkansas, 154th in KenPom. Austin Peay finished 2nd and is 165. Queens and Lipscomb, the other two teams with winning records in league are also the only other top 200 KenPom teams.

Central Arkansas has won 13 of 14 and is the pick.

Big South-

The Big South is played in Johnson City, TN at Freedom Hall. Sounds patriotic. High Point won the league at 15-1 and went 27-4 overall. They’re 91st in KenPom. Bracket buster alert. They’ve won 11 in a row. They’re the 4th best turnover % on both sides of the ball nationally. Note that should they draw a turnover prone team in a few weeks.

Of course, they have to win the conference tourney. Their only loss was to Winthrop who finished 2nd and is the only other top-200 KenPom team. 

High Point is the pick.

NEC-

The NEC tips Wednesday as well. Per usual, this is 16-seed territory. No team is top-200 in KenPom. Rod Strickland’s LIU won the regular season title and are the faves. Central Connecticut finished 2nd but were swept by LIU.

Mercyhurst and Le Moyne finished T-3 and split with LIU. I’ll stick with LIU. 

Ohio Valley-

The OVC travels to Evansville, IN and begin festivities on Tuesday. Another league with no top-200 KenPom teams, the regular season champs were Tennessee State and Morehead State, who both went 15-5. They split the regular season matchups. They’re 207 and 282 in KenPom, respectively. Nolan Smith coaches Tennessee State.

The middle of the league is tight and it should make this tournament fairly wide open. UT-Martin saw the wheels fall off going 2-5 over the last 7. They had wins over UNLV and Bradley in non-com.  Tennessee State and Morehead State have been playing the best down the stretch and one of those should win but I’ll pick SIUE who is coached by Marquette legend, Brian Barone.

Summit- 

The Summit begins Tuesday in beautiful Sioux Falls. The regular season champ was North Dakota St who finished 14-2 in league play, splitting with 2nd place St. Thomas. St. Thomas is higher in KenPom at 105 vs. NDSU which is 118. The rest of the league is sub-200. Woof if someone other than the top 2 win.

St. Thomas is the pick because they lead the nation in 2pt shooting % and are 4th overall in effective fg%. NDSU is 233rd in effective fg% defense. Between the two of them, the Tommies are more likely to steal a win in the Big Dance.

Conference Tournaments - March 2, 2026

 

Horizon League:

#1 Seed – Wright State

This is 16 seed fodder and Wright State isn’t much better than the rest of the top half of the conference.  This is a dart throw at best but I’m going with UW-Green Bay to get hot and dance with Doug Gottlieb for the first time

Bubble Carnage

 I've already made it clear the bubble this year is extremely gross and yesterday proved my point even further.  3 of my 4 10  seeds loss with only Missouri surviving out of that group.  Auburn is probaly going to drop all the way out, especially if Ohio State wins today.  UCLA and Texas A&M should only drop to an 11 seed with UCLA more safe than A&M.  On the 11 seed line both California and San Diego State lost. San Diego St. will just flip with the team they lost to, New Mexico, who was my first team out.  California lost at home to a bad Pittsburgh team so that is not only a drop out but possibly down to the next four out.

As for the First Four Out, both Virginia Tech and USC lost while Seton Hall and Oklahoma State both lost from the Next Four Out.  Indiana and Ohio State have big opportunities today while VCU stays alive.

Teams are playing themselves into the NIT at this point.

Patriot Fun Belt

Patriot-

The Patriot League begins their March to a conference champ beginning Tuesday. All games are played at the higher seed.

Make no bones about it, Navy is the prohibitive favorite, the only team with a positive AdjEM and nearly + 9 on American and +10 on Lehigh and Boston. Navy might win a tourney game, anyone else is likely a 16.

Navy is 135 in KenPom, American is next closest at 240. American did beat Navy by 14 in the regular season. Navy swept all other Patriot League teams, though they needed 2 overtimes at Lehigh and overtime at Colgate.

Wild and concerning stat: opponents only make 29.3% of 3’s against Navy but 45% of all opponent shots come from 3. So…if Boston were to beat them because they’re a really good 3-point shooting team, you shouldn’t be surprised.

The pick is Navy still but that wild and concerning stat is something. 

Sun Belt-

This wasn’t a banner year in the Sun Belt. There isn’t a definitive favorite as they tip off in Pensacola beginning Tuesday.

Only 2 teams have positive AdjEM, Troy at +0.90 and Arkansas State at +1.71. Only 5 teams are top-200 in KenPom. Arkansas State is 143 which is worse than Navy. And 3 of the 5 are 185, 195 and 198. There isn’t a team that screams bracket buster.

I think any of the top 9 can win this. Troy won the league at 12-6 and then there are 6 teams at 11-7. Want to live stupidly, gamble on this bracket.

The league wants Troy or Arkansas State to win. One of them might accidentally win a game in the big dance. I’ll take Arkansas State because they play ridiculously fast and love turning it over but rebound like mad men on the offensive side. 345th on offensive turnover % and 11th in offensive rebounding %. That’s the kind of team you want to see in March, fun and dumb which might be what this conference tournament is.

Horizon League

Believe it or not, conference tournaments commence on Monday as the Horizon League kicks us off. Opening rounds are at the higher seeds with the semifinals and final played in Indianapolis.

Wright State is the regular season champ and 155th in KenPom. 2nd place Robert Morris is 147 and Oakland is 157. They’re the only 3 teams with a positive net rating. Northern Kentucky is 159 in KenPom and Youngstown State is at 200.

15-seed territory here and 16-seed if we get an upset champ, something this league does from time-to-time, though not the last few years. The best non-con win was by Robert Morris over Illinois-Chicago. Oakland played the toughest schedule.

The pick: Robert Morris

Belmont

To answer Brian’s question partially, one of those teams is Belmont, who I wanted to write about. The Bruins are 26-4 and regular season champs in the Valley, a clear 3 games ahead of the 2nd place team heading into the final weekend.

The Bruins will need to win the Valley. The resume is paper thin and they have losses to Richmond and a bad Indiana State team. The best non-con win is over Illinois-Chicago and though the Valley isn’t bad this year, it’s not good enough for multiple bids.

Belmont does what most Belmont teams have done historically, shoot the ball well. They’re the best 3-point shooting team in the nation, shooting 41% from 3. They’re 5th in the nation from 2, as well. Add it up and this is the best real shooting team in America. With an effective fg% of 61.4, that’s clear of number 2 St. Louis and St. Thomas who are 60.1. So-so defending teams want nothing to do with Belmont should they draw them in March. 

Defensively, they aren’t nearly as good and should give you pause as a bracket buster. 119th in KenPom is a red flag. They don’t anything terribly on defense but nothing is top-50 other than FTA/FGA and that’s right at 50. Ideally, they draw someone like Carolina or St. John’s.

For the most part, this is a pretty young team, 280th in experience, so if they somehow manage to keep the team together, they’ll be a menace next year. They do have a senior in Tyler Lundblade who sees the most minutes. He plays largely off ball and shoots 41% from 3. He’s also 93% from the line. Frosh Jack Smiley has seen some minutes at PG and has a 26% assist rate while shooting 44% from 3.

Casey Alexander has seen his name mentioned for potential openings and maybe he jumps but he’s a Nashville guy having coached at Lipscomb before taking over at Belmont. Not that it always matters, he’s also an alum and is from Chattanooga originally. If he goes, he’ll have a nice group to potentially bring with him. Hopefully, he stays and retains his roster. If so, they’ll be a force in ‘27.

Friday Bracketology

 1. Duke  vs  16. Morgan St./Bethune Cookman
1. Michigan  vs  16. UMBC/Morehead St.
1. Arizona  vs  16. Marshall
1. Connecticut  vs  16. LIU
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Portland St.
2. Houston  vs  15. Wright St.
2. Illinois  vs  15. Merrimack
2. Florida  vs  15. Austin Peay
3. Purdue  vs  14. East Tennessee St.
3. Nebraska  vs  14. Navy
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. UC Irvine
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Utah Valley
4. Kansas  vs  13. UNC Wilmington
4. Alabama  vs  13. High Point
4. Virginia  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. Tennessee  vs  12. Liberty
5. Arkansas  vs  12. Belmont
5. Vanderbilt  vs  12. Yale
5. North Carolina  vs  12. South Florida
6. Louisville  vs  11. Miami OH
6. BYU  vs  11. San Diego St./California
6. St. John's  vs  11. Santa Clara/TCU
6. Wisconsin  vs  11. Texas
7. Villanova  vs  10. UCLA
7. Kentucky  vs  10. Missouri
7. UCF  vs  10. Texas A&M
7. Utah St.  vs  10. Auburn
8. Clemson  vs  9. Georgia
8. Saint Louis  vs  9. SMU
8. Saint Mary's  vs  9. Miami Fl
8. Iowa  vs  9. N.C. State

First Four Out - New Mexico

First Four Out - Virginia Tech

First Four Out - Ohio St.

First Four Out - USC

Next Four Out - Indiana

Next Four Out - Seton Hall

Next Four Out - VCU

Next Four Out - Oklahoma St.

Also Considered - Cincinnati

Also Considered - Boise St.

Also Considered - Grand Canyon

Also Considered - Colorado St.

Blind Resume

 Alright, let's do a blind Resume and see who we like for an at-large bid.  Rank These Teams:

Team 1
KenPom: 82
Torvik: 75
WAB: 28
SoS: 306
Q1 Record: 0-0
Q1+Q2: 1-0

Team 2
KenPom: 53
Torvik: 55
WAB: 64
SoS: 104 
Q1 Record: 2-2
Q1+Q2: 6-5

Team 3
KenPom: 55
Torvik: 63
WAB: 42
SoS: 157
Q1 Record: 0-0
Q1+Q2: 5-1

One of these teams is easy, the other two, not so much.

Santa Clara

Brian has them in the play-in in his latest bracket. They’re 34th in KenPom. They’re also so close to being a lock. Let’s take a look at Arizona’s worst nightmare.

The Broncos has some agonizing losses. 1- point to St. Louis. Bad losses to Loyola Chicago and Arizona State by a combined 5 points. Mix in a blowout loss at New Mexico and you get the bubble. Those 3 losses, by a total of 6 points might just haunt this team.

To make matters worse, they were swept by Gonzaga in league play. Even a split would have gone pretty far. They travel to St. Mary’s tonight in what feels like a must win game.

Head coach Herb Sendek has seemingly spent his career on the bubble. Even more wild is, this is his 10th year at Santa Clara. He hasn’t been to the tournament since 2014 with any school. If this team doesn’t dance, I’m not sure I can sum up Sendek’s career much more than this season. 

This is a solid club that is a 9-10 seed unfortunately stuck in a mid-major. They’re 27th in AdjO and 57th in AdjD. They’re a very good offensive rebounding team and very good at forcing turnovers. A decent shooting team but have a slightly below average defensive real shooting %. They’re a 9-10 seed as you analyze them.

I’ve been loosely following them as I’ve waited for a 3rd WCC team to emerge as I do yearly. Tonight is a big game. A win will go a long way, a loss puts a lot of pressure on the WCC Tournament that begins next week. The Herb Sendek experience continues as it always has.

The Sad State of the Bubble

I've been hesitant to start highlighting bubble games so far because quite frankly, the bubble is essentially garbage this year.  Among bracketologists there really are only about 5-6 teams that are floating above and below the cutline.  The consensus is very clear at this point that Ohio State, Virginia Tech, San Diego State, and USC are all on the outside looking in.  The next four out are also very clear, and most of these teams may not even be able to play themselves into the bracket without winning out to their Conference Tournament Championship games.  This group includes Seton Hall, VCU, Oklahoma State, and your choice of a Mountain West team not named New Mexico. 

That being said the 6 teams that are vying for those last 5 spots in order are TCU, Santa Clara, California, Missouri, New Mexico, and Indiana.  None of these teams really wow you and they all have glaring issues in their resume.

TCU - Pros: 4 Q1 win, Cons: a Q3 and Q4 loss

Santa Clara - Pros: 8-5 in Q1/Q2 and top 40 NCSOS, Cons: a Q4 loss

California - Pros: 4-5 in Quad 1, Cons: 281 in NCSOS and a KP of 68

Missouri - Pros: 8-9 in the first two Q, Cons: 51 in WAB (Wins Above Bubble)

New Mexico - Pros: 7-1 in Q2, Cons: Only 2 Q1 wins and a Q3 loss

Indiana - Pros: Top 45 in most metrics, Cons: Only 2-10 in Q1 games

This is remarkably worse than in years past, and the teams in my first four out and next four out are clearly behind them.  In all fairness, the last 4 bye teams, UCLA, Texas, Auburn, and Texas A&M don't really jump off the page at you either.  I know the committee will expand no matter what the numbers say as they are chasing the almighty dollar but if we were at 76 teams this year, the bubble would consist of team sitting at .500 on the year.  Gross

Monday Bracketology

 1. Duke  vs  16. Howard/Bethune Cookman
1. Michigan  vs  16. UMBC/Tennessee St.
1. Arizona  vs  16. Merrimack
1. Connecticut  vs  16. LIU
2. Purdue  vs  15. Navy
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Wright St.
2. Houston  vs  15. East Tennessee St.
2. Illinois  vs  15. Austin Peay
3. Florida  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Nebraska  vs  14. Troy
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. Portland St.
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. Hawaii
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Utah Valley
4. Kansas  vs  13. UNC Wilmington
4. Alabama  vs  13. Liberty
4. Virginia  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. St. John's  vs  12. High Point
5. Tennessee  vs  12. Belmont
5. Vanderbilt  vs  12. Yale
5. Arkansas  vs  12. South Florida
6. Louisville  vs  11. California
6. BYU  vs  11. UCLA/New Mexico
6. North Carolina  vs  11. Santa Clara/TCU
6. N.C. State  vs  11. Texas A&M
7. Wisconsin  vs  10. Texas
7. Villanova  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Kentucky  vs  10. Auburn
7. Utah St.  vs  10. Indiana
8. Clemson  vs  9. Georgia
8. Saint Louis  vs  9. Iowa
8. Saint Mary's  vs  9. Miami Fl
8. SMU  vs  9. UCF

First Four Out - TCU

First Four Out - Virginia Tech

First Four Out - San Diego St.

First Four Out - USC

Next Four Out - Ohio St.

Next Four Out - Seton Hall

Next Four Out - VCU

Next Four Out - Oklahoma St.

Also Considered - LSU

Also Considered - Boise St.

Also Considered - Nevada

Also Considered - West Virginia

Top 16 Vibes

Let’s look at Brian’s Top-16 based on seeding and check their vibes heading towards March. A contender or pretender edition.

Arizona - Vibes are better after a win at Houston. Still a contender.

Duke - Sky high vibes. The loss to UNC sucked but didn’t really derail the goal of a regular season title and 1-seed. They have the best player in the nation, a player good enough to carry a team to a title. 

Michigan - Vibes are still high. Losing by 5 to Duke in the middle of the Big 18 season is a disappointment but winning in Mackey big earlier this week keeps them atop the league and keeping a 1-seed.

Houston - Lukewarm vibes. Back-to-back losses to Iowa State and Arizona aren’t bad losses but losing streaks aren’t good for the vibes.

UConn - Better after beating Nova but losing to a mediocre Creighton team at home? Bad vibes, man.

Iowa State - Wins at home over Kansas and Houston followed by a loss at BYU. Vibes are fine.

Illinois - Vibes are sinking. 3 overtime losses in the last 5. Big 18 titles just about snuffed out. Defensive concerns real.

Florida - Sky high vibes. Offense is performing better, shooting has improved but 3PT % still woof. On the way to an SEC title.

Kansas - Vibes crashing. Home loss to Cincinnati. Best player unreliable. Upset fodder opening weekend.

Nebraska - Vibes flattening. 3-4 in their last 7, west coast trip awaits them after a home tilt against Maryland. Offense not good enough.

Gonzaga - Vibes are on cruise control until the tournament. Playing fine. Not sure what they are.

Purdue - Vibes are mostly good. Non-competitive home loss to Michigan exposes their ceiling but blew out their rival Friday night in a nice bounce back win.

Michigan State - Izzo is March vibes are just about here.

Virginia - Vibes are comebacks. Another double-digit comeback win yesterday, 3rd of the year. Year of Living Dangerously. Usually, the final vibe is bad.

Alabama - Won 6 in a row after being blown out by Florida, so vibing in the right direction. Terrible defense will crush the vibe but enjoying the ride at the moment.

Vandy - Teetering after back-to-back losses. 8-6 after the calendar turned. Vibes feel like doom.

What is Syracuse?

Syracuse is currently on the way to another loss to a Tobacco Road team. A loss today would drop Syracuse to 15-13 overall and 6-9 in the ACC. With no avenue to the NCAA Tournament without an unlikely ACC Tourney win, it begs the question, what is Syracuse?

This is Adrian Autry’s third and likely last season as the head coach of Syracuse. Replacing a legend is never easy but the decline of Syracuse began before Autry got the job.

Since joining the ACC in the 2013-14 season, Syracuse will have missed the tournament more than they have made it. In fact, in the decade Jim Boeheim coached in the ACC, the Orange missed the tournament as much as they made it. In their last 5 seasons in the Big East, the Orange made 4 Sweet 16’s and a Final 4.

There are a lot of poster child’s for the negative consequences of chasing football dollars. The Orange have Pitt joining them in the ACC as schools miscast in a league. Is that the reason? It’s easy to say it is but given UConn’s ascension back to the top of the college basketball world after returning to the Big East, it is worth asking.

Autry is almost certainly going to be fired. It’s not a lack of talent acquisition. HS recruiting and transfer portal recruiting hasn’t been elite but it’s been good enough they should be much better than they have been. Gerry McNamara will be a popular name. Longtime assistant and playing legend, he is the head coach at Siena and they’ve been very improved over his first season. The question that will be asked, do you want to go to that same well as you did with Autry.

The other name will be Josh Schertz, a Brooklyn native. If he wants to leave St. Louis, he’ll have his pick of jobs. Given the jobs to likely to be open, this might be the best depending on the dominoes. The coaching chops are there but he hasn’t been somewhere that requires high level recruiting. Of course, he can alleviate that with top assistants but it will be a legit concern.

A lot of things have lead Syracuse to this point. A legend head coach who lost his fastball at the end of his tenure. Misfire on the replacement. Chasing football dollars lost their basketball identity. The days of relevancy over. They’ll need to hit on this hire or they’ll be Nebraska football. Wandering aimlessly trying to recapture long lost glory.

Friday Bracketology

 1. Arizona  vs  16. Howard/Bethune Cookman
1. Michigan  vs  16. UMBC/Southeast Missouri
1. Duke  vs  16. Merrimack
1. Houston  vs  16. LIU
2. Connecticut  vs  15. Navy
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Wright St.
2. Illinois  vs  15. East Tennessee St.
2. Florida  vs  15. Austin Peay
3. Kansas  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Nebraska  vs  14. Troy
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. Portland St.
3. Purdue  vs  14. UC Irvine
4. Michigan St.  vs  13. Utah Valley
4. Virginia  vs  13. UNC Wilmington
4. Alabama  vs  13. Liberty
4. Vanderbilt  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. St. John's  vs  12. High Point
5. Texas Tech  vs  12. Belmont
5. Tennessee  vs  12. Yale
5. BYU  vs  12. South Florida
6. Louisville  vs  11. TCU
6. Arkansas  vs  11. UCLA/New Mexico
6. North Carolina  vs  11. Santa Clara/Missouri
6. N.C. State  vs  11. Texas A&M
7. Villanova  vs  10. Georgia
7. Kentucky  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Wisconsin  vs  10. Auburn
7. Utah St.  vs  10. UCF
8. Clemson  vs  9. SMU
8. Saint Louis  vs  9. Saint Mary's
8. Iowa  vs  9. Miami Fl
8. Indiana  vs  9. Texas

First Four Out - California

First Four Out - San Diego St.

First Four Out - USC

First Four Out - Ohio St.

Next Four Out - VCU

Next Four Out - Seton Hall

Next Four Out - Virginia Tech

Next Four Out - Oklahoma St.

Also Considered - LSU

Also Considered - Boise St.

Also Considered - Syracuse

Also Considered - West Virginia

Contenders and Pretenders Part 4

 Well, I spent about 30 minutes this morning typing out today's article and when I came back to my computer it was gone.  It today's computer environment I can't believe it didn't auto-save or auto-recover but here we are.  I'm not retyping the whole thing so here's a summary:

Duke - Contender but I have guard concerns.  Saturday vs Michigan will be a great look to see if they are Final Four ceiling or title ceiling

Illinois - Defense isn't good enough to win a title but a win at USC with Wagler struggling says they can get to the Final Four.

Florida - the Florida hype train is in full effect.  Can't just ignore the first 10 games because they look unstoppable now.  I'm still concerned about the guards but they can contend.

Tuesday Bracketology

 1. Arizona  vs  16. Morgan St./Bethune Cookman
1. Michigan  vs  16. NJIT/Merrimack
1. Duke  vs  16. LIU
1. Connecticut  vs  16. Navy
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Tennessee Martin
2. Houston  vs  15. Wright St.
2. Nebraska  vs  15. East Tennessee St.
2. Illinois  vs  15. Austin Peay
3. Kansas  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Florida  vs  14. South Alabama
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. Portland St.
3. Purdue  vs  14. UNC Wilmington
4. Michigan St.  vs  13. Cal Baptist
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Hawaii
4. St. John's  vs  13. Liberty
4. Virginia  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. Vanderbilt  vs  12. High Point
5. North Carolina  vs  12. Belmont
5. BYU  vs  12. Yale
5. Louisville  vs  12. South Florida
6. Arkansas  vs  11. TCU
6. Tennessee  vs  11. Santa Clara/Georgia
6. Alabama  vs  11. USC/San Diego St.
6. Saint Louis  vs  11. Texas A&M
7. Villanova  vs  10. UCLA
7. Wisconsin  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Clemson  vs  10. UCF
7. N.C. State  vs  10. SMU
8. Utah St.  vs  9. Saint Mary's
8. Kentucky  vs  9. Miami Fl
8. Iowa  vs  9. Texas
8. Auburn  vs  9. Indiana

First Four Out - California

First Four Out - New Mexico

First Four Out - Missouri

First Four Out - Ohio St.

Next Four Out - VCU

Next Four Out - Seton Hall

Next Four Out - Virginia Tech

Next Four Out - Oklahoma St.

Also Considered - LSU

Also Considered - Boise St.

Also Considered - Syracuse

Also Considered - West Virginia

Villanova

The Big East isn’t very good this year. UConn and St. John’s sit atop the league. UConn is Final 4 good, St. John’s is rolling but has warts too ugly to overlook. Third in the league is a familiar face that has bounced back from the Kyle Neptune experience. The Villanova Wildcats and Kevin Willard are looking to get back to the tournament and are in good shape to do so.

The Wildcats are currently 26th in KenPom. 31st in offense and 32nd in defense, this team screams being somewhere in the 7-10 area of seeding. Their best win is a “neutral court” win in Milwaukee over UW-Madison. After that, sweeping the season series against Seton Hall are their next two best wins. A home date this weekend with UConn awaits and a trip to MSG against the Johnnies next weekend gives them two more chances at good wins.

The roster is a nice blend of transfers and freshmen. Redshirt frosh Matthew Hodge and silky smooth PG frosh Acaden Lewis look like classic Nova players. Big man Duke Brennan from Grand Canyon provides the muscle and Devin Askew from Long Beach State has added a threat from 3.

In the Four Factors, Nova doesn’t do anything exceptionally. They’re a weak defensive rebounding team and do not get to the foul line. This isn’t a sleeper to make a deep run. What it is, is a building block. Assuming they keep Lewis and Hodge along with junior guard, Tyler Perkins, they’ll have pieces to build around.

I wouldn’t expect them to make the second weekend. I do expect them to be much better in 2027 and a threat in the league. Whether Willard has Jay Wright’s ceiling as a coach, I doubt, but he is at a place that can and wants to compete for national titles. He no longer has any excuses. It will be fascinating to watch play out.

One Month to Go!

 We are one month to Selection Sunday so now is a good time to predict the Final Four again.  Going back my preseason Final Four were Michigan, Houston, Duke, and Texas Tech.  That’s not bad and I would have stuck with the first three for sure but after Texas Tech knocked off Arizona last night it might make sense to keep them in as well.  However, I’m not going to let one game sway me back to my original Four yet. 

Thinking through the season so far, I think there is a large range of teams that can make the Final Four and after last season, where all #1’s made it, I think there will be a surprise or two.  As I mentioned I have Duke, Michigan, and Houston as 3 of my 4 and those are 2 1seeds and 1 2 seed.  I currently have Texas Tech as a 4 seed, but I can see them replacing Michigan State at the 3 line in the next bracket.  That would be a minor upset as a 3 seed but, I’m not going there now.  St. John’s has been hot lately and Florida is everybody’s darling at the moment.  I can make a case for the Gators but once again that’s an easy way out.  Instead, I’m going to go out on a limb and lean on my ACC bias and select Virginia as my 4^th Final Four team.  I like what I see out of them and it’s great to see actual basketball being played at Virigina instead of the garbage that the previous coach tried to shove down our throats.  This might be a reach, but I don’t want to be like everybody else and take the same 4 out of 5 teams as my prediction (most people sprinkle in Florida or Connecticut.

Final Four 1 Month Out:

Duke
Michigan
Houston
Virginia

Sparty

Izzo is March is one of our favorite phrases, isn’t it? Brian pointed out Matt Norlander called Michigan State the 2nd most likely team to win a national title out of the Big 18. They proceeded to blown off the court by UW-Madison. Are they the 2nd most likely team to win a national title do the Big 18? No, no they’re not.

They’ve now lost 3 of 4, which includes a double digit loss at home to Michigan and a loss at Minnesota to go with the blowout loss in Madison. Izzo better be March because he isn’t February at the moment.

They got as high as number 4 in KenPom following a blowout win over a terrible Maryland team on January 24th. They also briefly had the best defense in the land. Since then, they’ve given up 79 to Rutgers in a 73-possession game, 76 to the Gophers in 53-possession game, 83 to Michigan in a 73-possession game, 82 to Illinois in a 71 possession game and them 92 in a 68 possession game. The defense has flatlined since that blowout win over Maryland.

The offense has never been good enough to win a title, hovering in the 40’s most of Big 18 play. The offense isn’t terrible other than turning it over way too much. A great rebounding team, the offense thrives off 2nd chance possessions.

Jeremy Fears is this year’s dirtbag Big 18 player. Fears is a good PG, they type of a player the media likes because of gaudy assist stats. A terrible shooter who hunts fouls which works for him because he 90% from the line but only 25% from 3. Expect to hear a lot of announcers to push the redemption narrative like Jason Benetti did last Saturday night.

The schedule includes road trips to Indiana, Michigan and Purdue. A 3-3 finish is possible which would mean a 4-6 finish in regular season play. Don’t know that’ll happen but this isn’t a team that is the second most likely to end the Big 18 title drought.

Friday Bracketology

 1. Arizona  vs  16. Morgan St./Bethune Cookman
1. Michigan  vs  16. UMBC/Merrimack
1. Duke  vs  16. LIU
1. Houston  vs  16. Navy
2. Connecticut  vs  15. Tennessee Martin
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Wright St.
2. Kansas  vs  15. East Tennessee St.
2. Illinois  vs  15. Austin Peay
3. Nebraska  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. Troy
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. Portland St.
3. Florida  vs  14. UNC Wilmington
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Cal Baptist
4. Purdue  vs  13. Hawaii
4. St. John's  vs  13. Liberty
4. Virginia  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. Vanderbilt  vs  12. High Point
5. North Carolina  vs  12. Belmont
5. BYU  vs  12. Yale
5. Louisville  vs  12. South Florida
6. Arkansas  vs  11. Missouri
6. Tennessee  vs  11. San Diego St./Saint Mary's
6. Alabama  vs  11. USC/Miami Fl
6. Saint Louis  vs  11. Santa Clara
7. Villanova  vs  10. Texas
7. Kentucky  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Clemson  vs  10. Georgia
7. N.C. State  vs  10. Texas A&M
8. Utah St.  vs  9. UCLA
8. Iowa  vs  9. UCF
8. Wisconsin  vs  9. SMU
8. Auburn  vs  9. Indiana

First Four Out - Ohio St.

First Four Out - New Mexico

First Four Out - TCU

First Four Out - California

Next Four Out - Boise St.

Next Four Out - Seton Hall

Next Four Out - Virginia Tech

Next Four Out - Oklahoma St.

Also Considered - LSU

Also Considered - VCU

Also Considered - Nevada

Also Considered - Tulsa

Utah State

It’s Aggie time. Utah State currently has a 1/2 game lead in the last year of the Mountain West as we know it. They’re up to 25th in KenPom, 27th on offense and 39th on defense. Jerrod Calhoun is the coach and given his background, a guy who Cincinnati and Ohio State might give a looksy should they make a move this off-season.

With 57.8% real shooting, 13th in the nation, the offense is quite good. They’re 8th in 2-pt shooting % and 80th in 3-pt shooting. The highest volume 3-point shooters are all 37% or better, so while 80th overall isn’t great, the core shooters are good. You’d like to see better turnover numbers but they do assist on 59% of makes. Their big folly on offense is weak FT shooting. They get to the line at an ok number but they’re 239th in FT % shooting.

Defensively, they’re 18th in turnover % and 59th in real shooting % defense. That mix is pretty good. Their weakness is they foul too much. They’re 269th in FTA/FGA. They’re also mediocre on the glass. Would be nice to see those 2 areas cleaned up.

MJ Collins paces them with 18ppg. Mason Falslev averages 16ppg and 5.7 boards per game while shooting 39.5% from 3 and getting 2.2 steals per game. Drake Allen and Elijah Perryman run the point and are quite adept at it. Allen averages 5 assists per game along with 2 steals per game. If you like guard play, this team has it.

The non-con wasn’t great with their best win over VCU and a loss to USF. It’s not a bad non-con schedule, they’re just not going to get anyone from the Big 5 to play them, so they scheduled a good amount of solid mid-majors. They play Memphis this Saturday. That’s a good scheduled game you’d think but the Tigers aren’t holding up their end of the donkey.

Brian has them on the 8-9 line and it doesn’t seem likely they get much higher without running the table. There’s enough parity in the league that’s unlikely but they’re worth monitoring should they get up to the 6 or 7 line.

Final Four Contender OR Pretender Part 3

 

Connecticut – Uconn just took a loss to St. John’s last Friday night so now seems like a good time to talk about them.  Their offense efficiency according to KenPom is below what you would like from a title contender, sitting at 27 but overall they are 8^th.  Torvik and the NET also have them slotted at 8 and both losses are against Quad 1 opponents.  The early season loss to Arizona was without 2 starters and again, it was against Arizona.  I’m still high on the Huskies even in a barren Big East.

Verdict: Contender...for now

Kansas – How can you actually make a prediction about Kansas with Darryn Peterson in and out of the lineup?  Hard to make a guess when you don’t know who is going to be on the court and who’s not.  What I do know is Peterson, while the best player in college, is 100% managing his playing time in an effort to get to the NBA healthy and get that rookie contract.  Do you know what players who do that in college do when they get a rookie contract?  They manage their playing time until they get an extension.  And when they get an extension it’s the same behavior until they get a max-contract.  And by then they have a label of a player not interested in winning.  I also question whether he loves the game.  Super talent and the NBA will love him but he will frustrate every franchise he plays for.

Verdict: They should allow players to go directly to the NBA.  And Kansas is a pretender but I’m impressed with how they’ve played with this circus.

Michigan State – Tom Izzo this, Tom Izzo that.  I keep hearing the podcasts talk about how he does so much with less talent than every other team year in and year out.  If he’s so good how come he constantly has “less talent” than other blue bloods?  He’s got 1 Final Four in 10 years and Jeremy Fears is AS dirty as Grayson Allen

Verdict:  Pretender and not making the 2^nd weekend

Tuesday Bracketology

 1. Arizona  vs  16. Morgan St./Bethune Cookman
1. Michigan  vs  16. UMBC/Merrimack
1. Duke  vs  16. LIU
1. Houston  vs  16. Navy
2. Connecticut  vs  15. Tennessee Martin
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Wright St.
2. Nebraska  vs  15. Portland St.
2. Illinois  vs  15. Austin Peay
3. Kansas  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. Troy
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. East Tennessee St.
3. Florida  vs  14. UNC Wilmington
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Hawaii
4. Purdue  vs  13. Utah Valley
4. North Carolina  vs  13. Liberty
4. Virginia  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. Vanderbilt  vs  12. High Point
5. St. John's  vs  12. Belmont
5. BYU  vs  12. Yale
5. Louisville  vs  12. Tulsa
6. Arkansas  vs  11. Missouri
6. Tennessee  vs  11. California/Saint Mary's
6. Alabama  vs  11. USC/Miami Fl
6. Clemson  vs  11. Santa Clara
7. Villanova  vs  10. Texas
7. Saint Louis  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Kentucky  vs  10. Wisconsin
7. Iowa  vs  10. Indiana
8. N.C. State  vs  9. UCLA
8. Utah St.  vs  9. Georgia
8. Texas A&M  vs  9. UCF
8. SMU  vs  9. Auburn

First Four Out - Ohio St.

First Four Out - San Diego St.

First Four Out - Oklahoma St.

First Four Out - New Mexico

Next Four Out - Boise St.

Next Four Out - Seton Hall

Next Four Out - Virginia Tech

Next Four Out - TCU

Also Considered - LSU

Also Considered - VCU

Also Considered - Nevada

Also Considered - George Mason

The Contenders

Asked last night who my Final 4 was and I was slow to respond. Probably because I always want to think of some unlikely Final 4 team. Yes, that could happen but let’s take a look at the real title contenders. One of these teams is likely to win it all. All are Top-20 offense and defenses.

Arizona - At a loss of superlatives at the moment. Largely steamrolling opponents. Just don’t do anything poorly. Barring injury, anything short of a regional final will be a massive disappointment.

Michigan - Currently up double-digits with 7 minutes left in Columbus. Well-balanced team that has responded to its hiccups after the calendar turned to 2026. Will be battle tested.

Duke - Heartbreaker last night. Lack of another offensive option was exposed last night late. Bit discouraging to see that UNC defense do that to them. Final 4 good but don’t see a title.

Houston - Offense, shooting in particular worries me but it has been gradually improving through Big XIIIII play. Still plays good defense. If the shooting continues to improve, they’ll be a legit title threat. If it stalls or regresses, that’ll be their doom.

Iowa State - Great response after some rough play. They can win it all. FT shooting is bad. Don’t get to the line and when they do, they’re not good but with the 7th best real shooting %, will it matter?

Florida - Don’t look now, but the defending champs are squarely in the mix. Can’t shoot the 3, though. Probably limits them from defending. Let’s see how that looks as we get into March.

Vandy - Fading? The defense is up and down. Not a threat but like I said a few weeks back, they’re building something in Nashville.

Iowa - Huh. Top 20 d and o. The defense is built upon turning teams over. 116th real shooting % defense isn’t good enough. It’s built upon teams missing 3’s, so not probably even that good. Still, seeing them here is something. Sweet 16 feels like the ceiling but given the Fran years, what an accomplishment that would be.

Others: 

Illinois - Last night’s loss exposed the question about them, the defense. It’s 22nd in KenPom, so that’s good but given up 85 points, even in overtime, to Michigan State isn’t a good look. A Final 4 run won’t surprise me but someone will out score them.

UConn - 306th in tempo, 27th in offense. Great defense can carry them. Problem on offense is free throw numbers across the board. Bit sloppy with the ball, too. Fascinating team to watch in March. Could do just about anything. Get upset early, make a run to the Final 4.

Purdue - Elite offense, good defense. Not a title contender but a Final 4 is doable. Head to Nebraska and Iowa and host Michigan in the next 3 games. Let’s see how the defense performs in those games

St. John’s - On a 9-game winning streak. Hovering around the top-20 in both offense and defense. So-so shooting team. Get a lot of second chance opportunities and to the line. Bullies on the offensive glass, terrible on the defensive glass. Sweet 16 ceiling, imo.

Virginia - Probably not. Sweet 16 is the ceiling. Again, that would be a great season given expectations.

Monitoring: Kentucky and UNC

College Basketball Rivalries

Thinking about the Carolina-Duke game today, it dawned on me, the college basketball rivalries feel dead to me outside this game. Am I right? I’m not sure but I’ll write my way through my thinking.

I think Duke and UNC are the starting point. For 30+ years, this has been the ultimate rivalry. Great teams, big games, true hate. Duke and UNC also engendered in ACC opponents a sense of rivalry, even if it was one-sided in nature. As the goliaths of the ACC, beating either was a big deal. Maryland games against these teams was must-see-TV. 

Mentioning Maryland brings me to what has probably caused the biggest decline in the rivalry games, conference realignment. Maryland’s hatred of Tobacco Road can’t be recaptured in the Big 18. Think UCLA-Arizona. Maybe not the most notorious rivalry, those were still big games out west.

The Big East has this problem as well. The entirety of the league had a common enemy in Syracuse. As the league broke up, one common theme emerged, everyone was sad to see the Orange leave because the members all liked beating them. Georgetown’s trip to the abyss hasn’t helped but a decade into the new league, it lacks the juice of the Orange.

That’s the ACC’s issue, too. As a smaller league, Tobacco Road was the enemy. Now? It’s a mishmash of schools dotted across the landscape. Beating Duke and UNC still means something but what about the other dozen + teams extending from the Bay Area to Dallas to Miami to Upper NY? 

The Big XIIIII still has Kansas. Beating the Jayhawks is still a badge of honor in the league but they don’t have a Missouri to get their blood boiling. Maybe Arizona-Kansas can become a thing but I doubt it. 

I thing the Big 18 might still have some bad blood rivalries. Michigan-Michigan State hate each other. Indiana-Purdue-Illinois show signs of redeveloping a true hatred of each other. Unfortunately, the league is so bloated, there is way too many “shoulder shrug” matchups. 

I have a lot of old man complaints about college sports and understand the leagues do not care about the fans. This is the one that bugs me the most. Maybe after decades of matchups, things can develop but I doubt the radical reconstruction of college sports allow it to naturally happen. That’s too bad. Good sports hate make it better for the fans, respectfully, of course. While alive in football, it feels much different in college hoops.