Wednesday, February 25, 2026

The Sad State of the Bubble

I've been hesitant to start highlighting bubble games so far because quite frankly, the bubble is essentially garbage this year.  Among bracketologists there really are only about 5-6 teams that are floating above and below the cutline.  The consensus is very clear at this point that Ohio State, Virginia Tech, San Diego State, and USC are all on the outside looking in.  The next four out are also very clear, and most of these teams may not even be able to play themselves into the bracket without winning out to their Conference Tournament Championship games.  This group includes Seton Hall, VCU, Oklahoma State, and your choice of a Mountain West team not named New Mexico. 

That being said the 6 teams that are vying for those last 5 spots in order are TCU, Santa Clara, California, Missouri, New Mexico, and Indiana.  None of these teams really wow you and they all have glaring issues in their resume.

TCU - Pros: 4 Q1 win, Cons: a Q3 and Q4 loss
Santa Clara - Pros: 8-5 in Q1/Q2 and top 40 NCSOS, Cons: a Q4 loss
California - Pros: 4-5 in Quad 1, Cons: 281 in NCSOS and a KP of 68
Missouri - Pros: 8-9 in the first two Q, Cons: 51 in WAB (Wins Above Bubble)
New Mexico - Pros: 7-1 in Q2, Cons: Only 2 Q1 wins and a Q3 loss
Indiana - Pros: Top 45 in most metrics, Cons: Only 2-10 in Q1 games

This is remarkably worse than in years past, and the teams in my first four out and next four out are clearly behind them.  In all fairness, the last 4 bye teams, UCLA, Texas, Auburn, and Texas A&M don't really jump off the page at you either.  I know the committee will expand no matter what the numbers say as they are chasing the almighty dollar but if we were at 76 teams this year, the bubble would consist of team sitting at .500 on the year.  Gross

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