The Final Four

 1. Kansas vs. 2. Villanova 

Kansas is the most complete team left. They caught some breaks to get to this point, however. Injuries hampered Creighton, Providence was wildly overseeded and Miami was a 10-seed for a reason. Now they get Villanova who will be without Justin Moore. You take advantage of the breaks you get when you get them.

Villanova is hands down the best program in the nation at the moment. It’s too bad injuries have decimated them again. Pretty much 6-deep before the Moore injury, Jay Wright will have to conjure up some magic from the bench and get more out of his starters. If any team can do it, I’d bet on the Wildcats.

I told Brian this feels like a team that would or could win Bill Self his second title. Out of all the 1-seeds, they were the weakest and had some beat downs this year. Yet, here they are. They take advantage of an undermanned Nova team and get back to the final for the 1st time since 2012.

Kansas 74 Villanova 60

2. Duke vs. 8. North Carolina 

Speaking of lucky, the Tar Heels have caught some breaks themselves. They played the worst of the 9-seeds, a beat up Baylor team and then St. Peter’s. Before the tournament, they lost in the ACC semifinals by 13 to VaTech. There were still a lot more questions than answers two weeks ago.

To their credit, they’ve figured something out and taken full advantage of the opportunity. I’m not going to dive deep into the numbers but the closest comp to this team is 2014 UConn, the biggest outlier in the KenPom era to win a title. 

What that tells me is, it’s more likely midnight is coming soon for UNC. The narrative is, all the pressure is on Duke. Maybe it is, but there’s definitely some pressure on this UNC team to be the ones to end the Coach K era.

I think back to Georgetown in 2013 ending Syracuse regular season run in the Big East with a dominant performance over the Orange, only to lose to them a week later in the Big East semifinals. You think you ended an era, but there’s always a chance for the rematch.

Duke isn’t going to lose again to UNC. They have the better team and have run the tougher gauntlet. The stars are shining and the energy is as high as it’s been this time of year since 2015. Duke wins and I think they do so comfortably.

Duke 72 UNC 57