9. Nevada - Like Houston, they are 19-1. The computers don’t love them but they are 19-1. Historical comp is the 2007 Nevada team that had future NBA players on it. That team lost as 7-seed in the second round to Memphis. Both teams had/have high ceilings.
8. North Carolina- They only played one game this week but waxed Virginia Tech. Historical comp is the 2012 Tar Heel team. That team made a Final Four and lost in the semifinals to Kansas. I think that’s the ceiling for this team.
7. Michigan- They get a bump this week after going to Indiana and pounding the Hoosiers. That’s the Wolverines at their best. We also saw again why you should be cautious, a grind it out win against the Gophers earlier in the week. The historical comp is last year’s team. That might be counterintuitive to what I think but a trip to the Final 4 is possible.
6. Kentucky- We’re seeing a team starting to assert itself. That was an impressive win over KU last night. Historical comp is the 2011 team. I like this comp because there are NBA players on this team but it’s similarily balanced like the ‘11 team. That team was a 4-seed that made a Final 4. This team will get a higher seed.
5. Gonzaga - Probably better than this but college basketball is too heavy this year. Historical comp is the 2017 team that played for the title. This team isn’t as good defensively but is better offensively.
4. Michigan State- Rolling through a very good Big Ten. Haven’t played a lot of the top teams yet, though. Think the historical comp is the 2012 team. This might be a bit off as this current group is top 10 offensively and defensively. This team probably has better guard play as well but I think it’s close. Heading into March, they were a favorite to get to the Final 4
3. Tennessee - Here’s a fun one. I have no historical comp for them, at least one from my lifetime. What Rick Barnes has done here is wholly unique. There were good teams under Bruce Pearl but none this good. The closest comp you get is 2008. That team was a 2-seed but the SEC was not as strong as it is this year. The second best team was Mississippi State at 23-11. Florida was third best and they had just replaced an entire roster that won two consecutive titles. Tennessee winning it all this year would be as big a surprise a major conference winner just about could be.
2. Virginia - My historical comp for them goes way back. Let’s call this team the 1983 Cavaliers. History remembers them as the team that lost to Chaminade but they breezed to a 1-seed after that only to lose to NC State in a regional final. So, this Virginia team is coming off a historic upset and breezing through the regular season after it happened (yes, Chaminade was regular season vs. a tourney the year before). Only means one thing, a Cinderella is upsetting them in a regional final.
1. Duke - Brian is the Duke expert so I should leave the historical comps to him and I have given this a lot of thought. This team reminds me of the 1999 team. That team came off a heartbreaking loss in the ‘98 regional final to Kentucky and lost an annoying white guard. That sounds familiar. The ‘99 team had a freak in Elton Brand who made the game look easy. That sounds familiar. Trying to find a Duke comp to Zion was hard. Okafor’s team won a title but Zion is a better prospect. Kyrie was the best pound for pound player to be one-and-done for Coach K but that team was not as good as this one. If anything, the ‘99 team was deeper but I think from a frontline talent standpoint, that’s the comp. This team could use a Trajan Langdon, though.
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