Free The Mids

The bubble is weak. It’s a popular refrain as we move towards Selection Sunday. It’ll be popular this year, because the so-called power leagues are riddled with mediocrity with the Pac-12 the biggest offender. Sadly, the tournament will be populated with teams from the SEC or Big Ten that won’t even finish in the top half of their leagues. This isn’t 2011 Big East or even 2014 Big Ten, the teams this year are simply mediocre.

Alan Bykowski (@brewcity77 on Twitter), writing for Cracked Sidewalks layed out in beautiful detail how the new Quadrant system, using NET (http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2019/01/breaking-ncaa-team-sheet-change.html?m=1) is going to hammer mid-majors and greatly enhance the top leagues. The system the committee will use is “rigged”. As we move forward here, I’ll show you the various strength of teams but make no mistake about it, the teams the casual fan would prefer to see get a shot in March?  They’ll have to watch the NIT if they don’t win their leagues.

On Friday, Yahoo! Sports college writer, Pat Forde (@YahooForde on Twitter) wrote a piece about NBA scouts being in attendance at the Belmont-Murray State game, largely their to see Ja’ Morant (https://sports.yahoo.com/nba-sees-value-belmont-murray-state-ncaa-selection-committee-071018296.html). Pat lays out the case on the value of having the Belmonts and Murray States of the world playing in the Big Dance versus a team like Arizona. He’s right. There is more talent in the mid-majors than we give credit for. But those brands don’t play on ESPN or FoxSports or CBS.

If we look at Brian’s last mock, these are his last 4 in:

- Temple, 73rd in KenPom and TRank

- Florida, 26th in KenPom, 12th in TRank 

- Arizona St, 55th and 59th

- VCU, 58th and 36th

His last 4 out are:

- Arizona, 61st in both

- San Francisco, 42nd and 33rd

- Butler, 44th in both

- Baylor, 45th and 51st

The Atlantic Sun has the 50th rated KenPom team in Lipscomb and 53rd rated KenPom team in Liberty. Neither team can enhance their resume because of the league they’re in. No offense to ASU, but I’d rather see both these schools in, my personal feelings about the institute of Liberty aside.

Buffalo has an at-large ready resume but if they stumble even 2 or 3 games down the stretch, they’ll be smack dab on the bubble despite wins at Syracuse and West Virginia and a neutral court win over San Francisco. There are plenty of capable teams that can win the MAC Tournament.

Other teams/leagues that will take it in the shorts include the SoCon. Wofford is 40th in KenPom, East Tennessee State is 70th. It’s not unrealistic to see a scenario where ETSU wins the conference tournament and Wofford slides to the NIT. I know Wofford had chances by playing a tough schedule and not beating UNC, OU or Kansas but that’s a tougher non-con schedule than St. John’s. And FWIW, they whomped South Carolina by 20. The league also has Furman who was ranked at one point.

The WCC should have a minimum of 3 teams in the tournament. USF is a tournament team. St. Mary’s is 35th in KenPom and 37th in TRank. There isn’t a single Pac-12 team ahead of those 3 teams. Even the Mountain West has two teams better with Utah State at 39th and 45th. 

The Big Ten went to a 20-game schedule. As “power” conferences expand, scheduling opportunities decrease for the mid-majors. And with the system being used to determine tournament teams, quality mid-major teams will get left by the wayside. Forget being fair, it’s not good for the sport. I’m a Big East honk but if you’re telling me it’s Butler or Wofford? I’d rather Wofford get the chance. 

We’re starting to see the “unintended” consequences of conference expansion. Bloated league schedules, dilution of smaller conferences have lead to mid-majors climbing an even steeper hill. The shame of it is, as Pat Forde’s column points out, there’s a lot of talent in those leagues and a lot better basketball than they get credit for. It’s time to give them the chance again.