Monday, April 3, 2017

The Final Pick

Remember when I casually mentioned North Carolina's offensive rebounding in my picks Saturday? Blind squirrel, nut and so on.

With how the regions fell this year, this was the best possible matchup we could have via KenPom. We have the 1 and 3 matching up (Had the 2, Nova, made it here, they'd have faced The Zags on Saturday). Remarkably, Gonzaga is a 4-point favorite with a 63% probability.

The Zags have the most efficient defense in the nation. The key tonight will be keeping their bigs on the court and not in foul trouble. The Zags are good at limiting offensive rebounds. Carolina is hands down the best offensive rebounding team in the nation. It'll be harder to limit extra chances for the Tar Heels if Karnowski, Collins and Williams are battling foul trouble.

The Zags are the better shooting team and have a much better effective fg% on defense. Tempo won't be an issue. Both teams average about the same amount of possessions per game. 

Joel Berry says he's good to go. He'll have to be against the Zags backcourt. I think the guy that decides this game is Justin Jackson. A projected lottery pick, a big night I think gives the edge to UNC.

People on the radio this morning seem to think this is Carolina's to lose. The Zags still aren't getting much respect. As much as I want to see them win to end such silly talks, I think Carolina wins a close one. And I think it's a big game from Justin Jackson that carries them. Still, go Zags.

The Pick: North Carolina 79 Gonzaga 77

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